New Hampshire Republican Primary Survey

by Harvard University and St. Anselm’s New Hampshire Institutes of Politics

Interviewing Period: October 2 – October 6, 2011 N = 648 Landline/Cell Phone Interviews with Likely Republican Primary Voters

Margin of Error: ± 4.4 percentage points Methodology Report Attached as Appendix

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

1. I need to confirm that you registered to vote in New Hampshire at your current address. Is that

correct? Yes ......................................................................................... 100% 2. Are you registered to vote in New Hampshire as a Democrat, a Republican, or are you Independent or

Unenrolled in a major party, or are you not sure how you are registered? GOP ........................................................................................ 58% Independent ............................................................................ 38% Not sure................................................................................... 4% 3. In January of 2012 as you probably know, there will be a Republican primary election for President of

the United States. How likely is it that you will vote in this Republican primary? Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50, or do you think you probably won’t be voting in this primary election?

Definitely be voting.................................................................. 85% Probably be voting .................................................................. 15% 4. In general, would you say things in New Hampshire are headed in the right direction or are they off on

the wrong track?

Right direction ......................................................................... 44% Wrong track............................................................................. 41% Mixed (vol.).............................................................................. 8% Don’t know .............................................................................. 7% 5. In general, would you say things in the United States are headed in the right direction or are they off

on the wrong track?

Right direction ......................................................................... 7% Wrong track............................................................................. 89% Mixed (vol.).............................................................................. 2% Don’t know .............................................................................. 3%

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6. Did you happen to vote in the 2008 New Hampshire primary for president? Yes .......................................................................................... 93% No............................................................................................ 6% I do not recall........................................................................... 2% Decline to answer.................................................................... *

7. Did you vote in the Republican primary or Democratic primary for president in 2008? (n=592) I voted in the Republican primary............................................ 82% I voted in the Democratic primary ........................................... 15% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 4% 8. Do you consider yourself to be politically engaged or politically active, or not?

Yes .......................................................................................... 70% No............................................................................................ 27% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 2% 9. Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of

the Tea Party movement?

Supporter ................................................................................ 46% Not a supporter/Don’t know..................................................... 38% Neutral/Mixed views( vol.) ....................................................... 11% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 5% Now I am going to read you the names of some people active in government and politics. For each one, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of that person. If you are unfamiliar with the name, just say so. What is your opinion of …? 10. Mitt Romney

NET: Favorable...................................................................... 75% Very favorable ......................................................................... 30% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 45% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 21% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 13% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 8% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 2% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 1% Decline to answer.................................................................... 1% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 96%

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11. Rick Perry

NET: Favorable...................................................................... 43% Very favorable ......................................................................... 9% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 34% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 41% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 23% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 18% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 8% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 7% Decline to answer.................................................................... 1% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 84% 12. Jon Huntsman

NET: Favorable...................................................................... 29% Very favorable ......................................................................... 4% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 25% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 25% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 16% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 9% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 23% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 21% Decline to answer.................................................................... 3% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 54% 13. Ron Paul NET: Favorable...................................................................... 57% Very favorable ......................................................................... 16% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 41% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 36% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 24% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 12% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 5% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 2% Decline to answer.................................................................... 1% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 93%

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14. Michelle Bachmann NET: Favorable...................................................................... 44% Very favorable ......................................................................... 10% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 34% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 46% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 24% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 22% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 5% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 5% Decline to answer.................................................................... 1% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 90% 15. Chris Christie NET: Favorable...................................................................... 51% Very favorable ......................................................................... 23% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 28% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 19% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 14% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 5% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 14% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... 13% Decline to answer.................................................................... 3% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 70% 16. Sarah Palin NET: Favorable...................................................................... 49% Very favorable ......................................................................... 15% Somewhat favorable ............................................................... 34% NET: Unfavorable .................................................................. 49% Somewhat unfavorable ........................................................... 22% Very unfavorable ..................................................................... 27% Recognize name but can’t rate ............................................... 2% Don’t recognize ....................................................................... * Decline to answer.................................................................... 2% NET: Name ID ........................................................................ 98%

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17. If the Republican primary for President were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you most likely vote for? Probe: Would you say you are going to definitely vote for ______ or probably vote for _______?

NET: Mitt Romney ................................................................. 38% Definitely – Mitt Romney ......................................................... 10% Probably – Mitt Romney.......................................................... 28% NET: Herman Cain................................................................. 20% Definitely – Herman Cain ........................................................ 6% Probably – Herman Cain......................................................... 13% NET: Ron Paul ....................................................................... 13% Definitely – Ron Paul............................................................... 4% Probably – Ron Paul ............................................................... 10%

NET: Newt Gingrich .............................................................. 5% Definitely – Newt Gingrich....................................................... 1% Probably – Newt Gingrich ....................................................... 4%

NET: Jon Huntsman.............................................................. 4% Definitely – Jon Huntsman ...................................................... 2% Probably – Jon Huntsman....................................................... 2% NET: Rick Perry ..................................................................... 4% Definitely – Rick Perry............................................................. 1% Probably – Rick Perry ............................................................. 2% NET: Michelle Bachmann ..................................................... 3% Definitely – Michelle Bachmann .............................................. * Probably – Michelle Bachmann............................................... 2% NET: Gary Johnson............................................................... 1% Definitely – Gary Johnson ....................................................... * Probably – Gary Johnson........................................................ 1%

NET: Rick Santorum ............................................................. 1% Definitely – Rick Santorum...................................................... * Probably – Rick Santorum ...................................................... * Don’t know .............................................................................. 11%

18. Overall, how satisfied are you with the current group of Republican candidates for President?

NET: Satisfied........................................................................ 65% Very satisfied........................................................................... 14%

Somewhat satisfied ................................................................. 51% NET: Not satisfied ................................................................. 34% Not very satisfied..................................................................... 23% Not at all satisfied.................................................................... 11% Don’t know .............................................................................. 2%

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19. There are many issues that voters consider when choosing a candidate to support in a primary. What ONE ISSUE is most important to you in deciding which candidate to support in the upcoming Republican primary for president? [OPEN ENDED]

Economy (General) ................................................................. 34%

Jobs/Unemployment ............................................................... 16% Size/Scope of Government ..................................................... 13%

Change Washington – Get Things Done ................................ 7% Taxes ...................................................................................... 6% Social Issues ........................................................................... 5% Health Care ............................................................................. 3% Constitutional Issues ............................................................... 2% Immigration ............................................................................. 2% Education ................................................................................ 1% Entitlement Programs.............................................................. 1% Foreign Policy ......................................................................... 1%

Other ....................................................................................... 5% None........................................................................................ 5%

20. Which of the following do you believe is more important when choosing a candidate in the Republic

primary:

The candidate that best matches your ideology and beliefs ... 62% The candidate that has the best chance of defeating Obama. 29% Neither/Both equally................................................................ 7% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 2% Regardless of which Republican presidential candidate you may support, for each of the following characteristics or qualities, please tell me if you think it best describes Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, or Mitt Romney. 21. Will get things done in Washington Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 47% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 15% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 7% Rick Perry................................................................................ 7% Some other candidate ............................................................. 4% Don’t know .............................................................................. 21%

22. Will create jobs Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 54% Rick Perry................................................................................ 9% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 9% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 6% Some other candidate ............................................................. 3% Don’t know .............................................................................. 19%

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23. Will defeat Obama Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 59% Rick Perry................................................................................ 9% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 6% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 4% Some other candidate ............................................................. 3% Don’t know .............................................................................. 20%

24. Cares about people like me Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 33% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 24% Rick Perry................................................................................ 9% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 7% Some other candidate ............................................................. 4% Don’t know .............................................................................. 24% 25. Will deal with the national debt Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 44% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 24% Rick Perry................................................................................ 6% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 5% Some other candidate ............................................................. 4% Don’t know .............................................................................. 17% 26. Will deal with Social Security Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 37% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 21% Rick Perry................................................................................ 9% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 6% Some other candidate ............................................................. 4% Don’t know .............................................................................. 24% 27. Will keep us safe from terrorists Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 36% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 15% Rick Perry................................................................................ 13% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 7% Some other candidate ............................................................. 3% Don’t know .............................................................................. 26%

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28. Will deal with immigration Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 29% Rick Perry................................................................................ 17% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 18% Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 8% Some other candidate ............................................................. 3% Don’t know .............................................................................. 27% If the general election for President were held today between Barack Obama and the following Republican candidates, who do you think would win the election? If the election were held today, would Barack Obama or _______ [RANDOMIZE] win?

[AFTER CHOICE MADE, PROBE] Do you think he would win by a wide margin or that it would be a close election?

29. Mitt Romney NET: Barack Obama Win ...................................................... 20% Barack Obama, win by wide margin........................................ 3%

Barack Obama, win but close election .................................... 17% NET: Mitt Romney Win.......................................................... 72% Mitt Romney, win by wide margin ........................................... 28% Mitt Romney, win but close election........................................ 44% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 8% 30. Rick Perry

NET: Barack Obama Win ...................................................... 43% Barack Obama, win by wide margin........................................ 16%

Barack Obama, win but close election .................................... 27% NET: Rick Perry Win ............................................................. 47% Rick Perry, win by wide margin ............................................... 14% Rick Perry, win but close election ........................................... 33% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 10% 31. John Huntsman

NET: Barack Obama Win ...................................................... 56% Barack Obama, win by wide margin........................................ 29%

Barack Obama, win but close election .................................... 27% NET: Jon Huntsman Win ...................................................... 25% Jon Huntsman, win by wide margin ........................................ 5% Jon Huntsman, win but close election..................................... 20% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 19%

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32. Chris Christie NET: Barack Obama Win ...................................................... 31% Barack Obama, win by wide margin........................................ 16%

Barack Obama, win but close election .................................... 15% NET: Chris Christie Win........................................................ 52% Chris Christie, win by wide margin .......................................... 26% Chris Christie, win but close election ...................................... 26% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 18% 33. Overall, do you believe the fact that Mitt Romney was Governor of Massachusetts helps or hurts his

candidacy for the Republican nomination for President, or does it not make much difference either way? Helps him ................................................................................ 29%

Hurts him................................................................................. 26% No difference........................................................................... 43% Don’t know .............................................................................. 2% 34. When it comes to most political issues, do you think of yourself as a liberal, a conservative or a

moderate? If moderate, do you lean liberal or conservative? NET: Conservative ................................................................ 78% Conservative ........................................................................... 56%

Moderate-Conservative........................................................... 22% Moderate ................................................................................. 5%

NET: Liberal ........................................................................... 13% Liberal ..................................................................................... 6% Moderate-Liberal ..................................................................... 7% Don’t know .............................................................................. 3%

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In the last 24 hours have you: 35. Discussed with someone in person, or on the phone – issues related to the New Hampshire

Republican primary?

Yes .......................................................................................... 36% No............................................................................................ 64% Don’t know .............................................................................. 1% 36. Discussed with or engaged online – on issues related to the New Hampshire Republican primary?

Yes .......................................................................................... 16% No............................................................................................ 84% Don’t know .............................................................................. * 37. Have you personally met in person one of the following candidates running for President?

Yes .......................................................................................... 20% No............................................................................................ 80% Don’t know .............................................................................. * 38. Which of the following Republican candidates running for President have you met in-person?

Mitt Romney ............................................................................ 15% Ron Paul ................................................................................. 4%

Jon Huntsman ......................................................................... 2% Michelle Bachmann................................................................. 2% Gary Johnson.......................................................................... 1% Herman Cain ........................................................................... 1% Newt Gingrich.......................................................................... 1% Rick Perry................................................................................ 1% Rick Santorum......................................................................... 1% Some other.............................................................................. 2%

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These last questions are for demographic purposes only: 39. Could you please tell me your age?

29 and Under .......................................................................... 5% 30-45 ....................................................................................... 33% 46-55 ....................................................................................... 21% 56-65 ....................................................................................... 22% 66+ .......................................................................................... 18% Decline to answer.................................................................... 2% 40. What was the last grade you completed in school?

0-11 ......................................................................................... 2% High school grad ..................................................................... 19% Technical/Vocational ............................................................... 2% Some college .......................................................................... 22%

College grad............................................................................ 35% Graduate degree ..................................................................... 20% Don’t know/Decline to answer................................................. 1%

41. Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Yes .......................................................................................... 2%

No............................................................................................ 96% Decline to answer.................................................................... 2% 42. What is your race? Are you white, black, Asian, or some other race?

White ....................................................................................... 93%

Black or African-American....................................................... * Asian or Pacific Islander.......................................................... 1% Mixed race............................................................................... 1% Native American/American Indian........................................... 1% Other ....................................................................................... * Decline to answer.................................................................... 3% 43. Gender

Male ........................................................................................ 56% Female .................................................................................... 44%

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APPENDIX

Methodology

Institutes of Politics Survey

Prepared by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Institute of Politics at Harvard University and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College

October 2011

SUMMARY

The Institutes of Politics Survey obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 648 New Hampshire Republican Primary likely voters, including an over sampling of likely voters ages 18-29. The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The interviews were administered in English by Princeton Data Source from October 2-October 6, 2011. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±4.4 percentage points.

Details on the design, execution and analysis of the survey are discussed below.

DESIGN AND DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES

SAMPLE DESIGN

Registered Republicans and voters listed as unenrolled with any party were drawn at random from a comprehensive database of New Hampshire registered voters. Only those who voted in a New Hampshire Republican presidential primary since 2000 or voted in the 2010 New Hampshire Republican primary or general election were selected. The sample contained both landline and cell phone numbers.

The sample was stratified by age so that voters age 18-29 could be over-sampled. This over-sampling of young voters was corrected in the sample weighting done post-data collection.

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Contact Procedures

Interviews were conducted from October 2-October 6, 2011. As many as 7 attempts were made to contact every sampled telephone number. Sample was released for interviewing in replicates, which are representative subsamples of the larger sample. Using replicates to control the release of sample ensures that complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. Calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chance of making contact with potential respondents. Each telephone number was called at least one time during the day in an attempt to complete an interview. Callbacks were scheduled to allow listed respondents participation in the survey.

The interviewers asked to speak with the named respondent from the sample file. Voters selected were screened to confirm their voter registration status. Only those who said they would “definitely” or “probably” be voting in New Hampshire’s 2012 Republican presidential primary were included in the likely voter base. Cell phone respondents were asked if they were in a safe location.

WEIGHTING AND ANALYSIS

Weighting is generally used in survey analysis to compensate for disproportionate sampling and patterns of nonresponse that might bias results. The data were weighted in two stages. The first-stage weight corrected for the disproportionate sample stratification by age.1

As the second stage, the data were weighted by gender and age based on exit poll data from previous New Hampshire GOP presidential primaries and by region based on the geographic distribution 2 of the actual vote in the 2008 New Hampshire Republican primary.

1 There was an over-sampling of voters age 18-29. 2 Region was based on the Census county codes. The regions were as follows: Southeast - Rockingham and Strafford; South - Hillsborough and Cheshire; Central - Merrimack, Belknap and Sullivan; North - Carroll, Coos and Grafton.

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Weighting was accomplished using Sample Balancing, a special iterative sample weighting program that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using a statistical technique called the Deming Algorithm. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the national population. Table 1 compares weighted and unweighted sample distributions to population parameters.

Table 1: Sample Demographics Parameter Unweighted Weighted

Gender Male 57.0 52.3 56.4

Female 43.0 47.7 43.6

Age 18-29 11.0 14.7 9.0 30-44 30.0 14.7 30.3 45-64 40.0 51.7 41.2

65+ 19.0 18.9 19.5

Region Southeast 32.0 32.9 31.9

South 35.0 33.0 34.9 Central 20.0 19.8 20.2

North 13.0 14.4 13.0

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Effects of Sample Design on Statistical Inference

Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. PSRAI calculates the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called "design effect" or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this survey is 1.29.

PSRAI calculates the composite design effect for a sample of size n, with each case having a weight, wi as:

In a wide range of situations, the adjusted standard error of a statistic should be calculated by

multiplying the usual formula by the square root of the design effect (√deff ). Thus, the formula for computing the 95% confidence interval around a percentage is:

where is the sample estimate and n is the unweighted number of sample cases in the group

being considered. The survey’s margin of error is the largest 95% confidence interval for any estimated proportion based on the total sample— the one around 50%. For example, the margin of error for the entire sample is ±4.4 percentage points. This means that in 95 out every 100 samples drawn using the same methodology, estimated proportions based on the entire sample will be no more than 4.4 percentage points away from their true values in the population. It is important to remember that sampling fluctuations are only one possible source of error in a survey estimate. Other sources, such as respondent selection bias, questionnaire wording and reporting inaccuracy, may contribute additional error of greater or lesser magnitude.

formula 1

formula 2

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RESPONSE RATE

Table 2 report the disposition of all sampled telephone numbers ever dialed from the original telephone number samples. The response rate estimates the fraction of all eligible sample that was ultimately interviewed. At PSRAI it is calculated by taking the product of three component rates:3

o Contact rate – the proportion of working numbers where a request for interview was made4

o Cooperation rate – the proportion of contacted numbers where a consent for interview was at

least initially obtained, versus those refused

o Completion rate – the proportion of initially cooperating and eligible interviews that were

completed

Thus the response rate for the 18-29 year old sample was 3 percent. The response rate for

the 30+ age sample was 9 percent.

3 PSRAI’s disposition codes and reporting are consistent with the American Association for Public Opinion Research standards. 4 PSRAI assumes that 75 percent of cases that result in a constant disposition of “No answer” or “Busy” are actually not working numbers.

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Table 2:Sample Disposition Sample 18-29

Sample 30+

8,388 10,167 Total Numbers Dialed

184 223 Non-residential 118 145 Computer/Fax

1,453 2,118 Other not working 162 132 Additional projected not working

6,471 7,549 Working numbers 77.1% 74.3% Working Rate

54 44 No Answer / Busy

3,421 2,994 Voice Mail 666 469 Other Non-Contact

2,330 4,042 Contacted numbers 36.0% 53.5% Contact Rate

879 863 Callback

1,277 2,479 Refusal 174 700 Cooperating numbers

7.5% 17.3% Cooperation Rate

2 6 Language Barrier

58 153 Child's cell phone / Not Registered / Democrat / Not Likely to Vote

114 541 Eligible numbers 65.5% 77.3% Eligibility Rate

1 6 Break-off

113 535 Completes 99.1% 98.9% Completion Rate

2.7% 9.2% Response Rate