new face for of opportunity selling in a changed & changing world
DESCRIPTION
Demographics for marketing/sales now and in the future.TRANSCRIPT
1Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Doug Anderson
The New Face of OpportunitySelling in a Changed & Changing World
2Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
3Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Key 21st Century Macro Trends
Slowing Population
Growth
Declining Share of HHs with
Children
Immigration & Growth of Ethnic
Families
Many Older Consumers with
New Needs
Income Declines & Concentration
Rising Rate of Obesity & Cost of
Healthcare
4Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Uneven Global Population Growth Continues
19501955
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050 -
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
More developed regions
Other less developed
India
Africa
China
Source: UN Population Division 2010 Revision
5Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Uneven Global Population Growth Continues
19501955
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050 -
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
More developed regions
Other less developed
India
Africa
China
Between 2010 & 2050...+2.24 billion people (+32%)
Only 1.7% from the More Developed Regions
Source: UN Population Division 2010 Revision
6Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Share of HHs with Children in Freefall
1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2022 2028 2034 2040 204625.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2011 – all time low birth rateDown 7% from 2007 to 2010
5% for native born / 13% for foreign born
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Nielsen Projections
7Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Rapid Ethnic Growth Among HHs with Kids
Africa, Asia, Latin America, Middle
East
United States, Canada, Europe,
Australia
Immigrant Flows20MM+ per decade
Young people leave for opportunity
Leads to rapid growth in ethnic
populations among families
Bring families or start new ones
Multi-cultural populations accounted for 90%+ of HH growth (2000–10)
New immigrants & their children will account for 80%+ of growth going forward
Will account for all growth among HHs with children
8Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
The U.S. Will Age for a Very Long Time
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
39.0
41.0
43.0
45.0
U.S. Median Age
Source: UN Population Division
9Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Growth at the Bottom of the Income Distribution
Struggling Lower Mid Upper Mid Affluent Wealthy2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Source: Nielsen Projections
Projected HH Growth Rates by Affluence Segments 2011 – 2021
Total U.S. Growth 7.8%
10Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Obesity Rate Continues to Rise
Non Hispanic White Men
Non Hispanic Black Men
Mexican American Men
Non Hispanic White Women
Non Hispanic Black Women
Mexican American Women
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1988-94 2007-08
44% Overall by 203010x increase in obesity related disease from
2010 to 2020, doubling again by 2030
Source: NHANE
11Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Implications for the Future of Three Key Marketplace Groups
• Baby Boomers
• The New American Family
• Millennials
The New Face of OpportunitySelling in a Changed & Changing World
12Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
43% Verizon wireless42% ATT / 36% Sprint
40% of CPG Spending
43% Sony Vaio41% Apple iBook /
iMac
Baby Boom
Source: Nielsen Homescan / MRI
13Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Baby Boomers – - over half of persons who have held or run for political
office- 44% of those who worked for a political party last year
Baby Boom
Source: MRI
Millennials; 18.1
Gen X; 18.5Baby Boom; 42.2
Pre Baby Boom; 21.2
Percent of Voters
63%
14Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Mind the Gap – Lifestage & Cohort Effects
Volume Indices
ItemHOH 40-
64 HOH 65+ GapFrozen Prepared Foods 105 73 31.6Frozen Pizza 104 56 47.9DiGiorno Frozen Pizza 102 63 38.7Packaged Ice Cream 104 110 -6.4Dreyers/Eddie's 96 121 -24.9
Source: Nielsen Homescan
15Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Lifestage StrugglingLower Middle
Upper Middle Affluent Wealthy Total
HOH <40 / Single Parents 11.8 4.7 2.3 1.5 2.2 8.0
HOH <40 / Couples16.0 6.1 2.5 1.8 2.7 6.1
HOH 40+ / Single Parents 11.2 2.3 -2.0 -4.1 -5.1 3.8
HOH 40+ / Couples 17.5 6.0 -1.2 -4.4 -5.4 0.9
Total 13.6 5.1 0.4 -1.9 -2.8 4.3
Family Growth About Half of Total HH Growth
Percent Change in the Number of U.S. HHs with Children: 2011-2021
HHs with Children Account for 47% of Frozen Pizza Sales
Source: Nielsen Projections / Nielsen Homescan
16Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Slow Growth in Family HHs, But a Lot of Flux
White
Black
Asian
Other
Hispanic
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
Source: Nielsen Projections
2011–2021 HH Growth
Struggling
Lower Middle
Upper Middle
Affluent
Wealthy
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
17Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Household Composition Will Continue to Shift
1960 20080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
87
64
% Children Living with Married Parents
1960 2008
5
41
White Black Hispanic
29
72
53
% Children Born to Unmarried Parents
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
18Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
Percent Married by Education
1960 1970 1980 199050.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
Less Than High School High School / Some CollegeCollege Graduate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
76%
71%
74%
64%
50%
44%
19Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
18901920
19471950
19531956
19591962
19651968
19711974
19771980
19831986
19891992
19951998
20012004
200720.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
Men Women
Median Age at First Marriage
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
20Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
18901920
19471950
19531956
19591962
19651968
19711974
19771980
19831986
19891992
19951998
20012004
200720.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
Men Women
Median Age at First Marriage
In 1968 68% of persons in their 20s were married
Today 26% are
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
21Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
The State of Marriage in the Future?
39% in a recent Pew survey agree that marriage is obsolete
- 44% of 18–29- 45% of High School or Less
- 48% of HHI < $30k
Marriages have become more peaceful with lower levels of conflict
Spouses are living more separate lives with fewer shared activities
22Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
110,000,000
60+ 21-34
No Growth Among 21-34 Year Olds, But…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
23Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
MillennialsEconomics
• Entering society in tough times and having a tough time doing it
• Most educated generation in history but still can’t get a job
• Minimal fifteen year impact to earnings
• Many have headed back home to Mom & Day
24Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
MillennialsNot Tying the Knot
• Marrying later if at all, staying single longer, much more likely to cohabitate
• Will have fewer children further slowing U.S. growth rate
• Less tied to the idea of creating their own families & much more tied to their parents than earlier generations at their ages
25Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
MillennialsFully Multi-Cultural
• Most multi-cultural adult generation in history
• See diversity as desirable & attractive
• New & different tastes
• Language diversity & new cultural sensitivities
26Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity
MillennialsCommunicate different
• Always had a mobile phone
• Texting, networking, sharing
• Different attention spans
• Have only lived in the post-fact era, have new & different standards for evaluating messages
• Not reached well through traditional channels & media
Some Key Things to Take Away
The future is now…
Demographic change is fundamental, widespread, & permanent, and interrelated
Growth is down / competition is up…
More products +Slow growth =
Increasing competition
Boomers• Must sustain sales
• Understand lifestage & cohort effects
• Can’t ignore / can’t talk down
• Multi-cultural or bust
• Precisely target
• Non-traditional family arrangements
New American
Family
• New geographies
• New media
• Crazy levels of competition
Younger Consumers
Questions?