new alternatives for estimating net migration to the united states using the american community...
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New Alternatives for Estimating Net Migration to the United States Using the American Community
Survey
Alexa Kennedy-Puthoff
David Dixon
Sonya Rastogi
Dean Judson Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Presented at the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Measuring International Migration, December 2006.
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Estimates of International Migration to the United States
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Population Estimates The U.S. Census Bureau produces annual estimates of the
population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration). These estimates are published at the national, state, and county level.
Estimates are used in: federal funding allocations, as denominators for rates time series, and as survey controls.
One component of the population estimates is net international migration, defined as the net movement across U.S. (50 states and the District of Columbia) borders.*
* The movement of U.S. military personnel across U.S. borders and the in-migration of native U.S. citizens who are not members of the military are included in the population estimates separately from the net international migration component.
http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
Estimates of Net International Migration,
1990-2006 (in thousands)
*
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Net International Migration (NIM) The Net International Migration component of the
population estimates consists of three parts:1. Net migration of the foreign-born population (NFB)2. Net movement between Puerto Rico and the U.S.
(50 states and D.C.) (PR)3. (Net) emigration of native population (NEMIG)
NIM = NFB + PR – NEMIG
NFB accounts for over 90 percent of the total NIM component. This research focuses on the construction of this component.
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Using ACS Data to Estimate Net International Migration
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What is the American Community Survey (ACS)? Replaces census sample data (long-form
questionnaire)
Content similar to census long form
Samples every year and spreads sample over 12 months• Monthly data collection• Annual estimates• Low levels of geography
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ACS Questions
Residence One Year Ago
Citizenship Status
Year of Entry
Native
Foreign born
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Weighted Estimates of the Population
Citizenship Imputation Rates
Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
universe: total population
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Total Population 273,643 277,018 280,540 282,910 285,691
Native 243,370 245,535 247,491 249,376 251,412Foreign Born 30,274 31,482 33,049 33,534 34,280
Naturalized U.S. Citizen 12,256 12,740 13,536 13,893 14,399Not a U.S. Citizen 18,017 18,743 19,513 19,641 19,880
ACS DATA YEARCITIZENSHIP STATUS
(in thousands)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Not Imputed 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.7Imputed 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
IMPUTATION OF CITIZENSHIP STATUS ACS DATA YEAR
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Single Year Change(Current Method)
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Single Year Change The current method used to estimate net
migration of the foreign born Based on the change in the number of
foreign born counted in ACS in time 1 compared with time 2, with an adjustment for deaths to the foreign born during the period
PR
Net migration between the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico
Single Year Change
Change in FB population during interval.
SYC = FB t2 – FB t1
Deaths
Deaths to FB population during interval
+ =+ NIM
Net International Migration
NEMIG
Native emigration
-
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Single Year Change: Estimates and Bounds
universe: total foreign-born population, t1 and t2
(in thousands)
Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
* Data for 2000-2002 were re-weighted to a consistent series of population estimates.The bounds shown here represent a 90-percent confidence interval.
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound2000 - 2001 1,209 901 1,5162001 - 2002 1,567 1,215 1,9182002 - 2003 485 128 8422003 - 2004 746 418 1,074
PeriodSingle Year Change (original weights)
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound2000 - 2001 1,087 778 1,3962001 - 2002 1,090 741 1,4392002 - 2003 897 542 1,2532003 - 2004 746 418 1,074
PeriodSingle Year Change (revised weights*)
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Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Single Year Change
High standard errors Sensitive to changes in survey population controls Annual reweighting of ACS data required to provide
consistent series of NFB estimates
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Year of Entry
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Year of Entry Was Prior Calendar Year Estimates utilize data on the year of U.S. entry
of the foreign born The “Year of Entry Was Prior Calendar Year”
universe for NFB contains those who indicated they entered the U.S. in the year prior to the survey
PR
Net migration between the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico
Year of Entry Was Prior Calendar Year
Foreign born who have a year of entry that is the year prior to the survey.
FBEMIG
Emigration of the foreign-born population during interval
=+ NIM
Net International Migration
NEMIG
Native emigration
--
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Year of Entry Was Prior Calendar Year:
Estimates and Boundsuniverse: foreign-born population, entered in year prior to the survey
(in thousands)
Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
* Data for 2000-2002 were re-weighted to a consistent series of population estimates.The bounds shown here represent a 90-percent confidence interval.
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound1999 - 2000 2000 1999 1,574 1,501 1,6472000 - 2001 2001 2000 1,647 1,578 1,7162001 - 2002 2002 2001 1,445 1,379 1,5122002 - 2003 2003 2002 1,260 1,206 1,3142003 - 2004 2004 2003 1,218 1,161 1,276
Estimate Period
Survey Year
Entered U.S. In Year of Entry (original weights)
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound1999 - 2000 2000 1999 1,576 1,503 1,6492000 - 2001 2001 2000 1,654 1,585 1,7232001 - 2002 2002 2001 1,427 1,361 1,4932002 - 2003 2003 2002 1,260 1,206 1,3142003 - 2004 2004 2003 1,218 1,161 1,276
Estimate Period
Survey Year
Entered U.S. In Year of Entry (revised weights*)
17Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
Year of Entry:Imputation Rates
universe: foreign-born population
(in percent)
universe: foreign-born population, entered in year prior to the survey
(in percent)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Not Imputed 92.4 93.6 92.6 92.4 93.2Imputed 7.5 6.4 7.4 7.7 6.8
IMPUTATION OF YEAR OF ENTRY ACS DATA YEAR
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Not Imputed 92.9 94.2 93.6 93.0 93.0Imputed 7.1 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.0
IMPUTATION OF YEAR OF ENTRY ACS DATA YEAR
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Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Year of Entry
High imputation rates for Year of Entry Conceptual ambiguity / survey question
interpretation difficulties Method requires an estimate of foreign-born
emigration
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Residence One Year Ago
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Residence One Year Ago Was Abroad Estimates utilize data on the residence of the
foreign born in the year prior to the survey The “Residence One Year Ago Was Abroad”
universe for NFB contains those who indicated they were abroad (outside the U.S. or U.S. outlying areas) one year ago
PR
Net migration betweenthe U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico
Residence One Year Ago Was Abroad
Foreign born, who were “abroad” one year ago.
FBEMIG
Emigration of the foreign-born population during interval
=+ NIM
Net International Migration
NEMIG
Native emigration
--
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Residence One Year Ago Was Abroad: Estimates and Boundsuniverse: foreign-born population, residence one year ago was abroad
(in thousands)
Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
* Data for 2000-2002 were re-weighted to a consistent series of population estimates.The bounds shown here represent a 90-percent confidence interval.
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound1999 - 2000 2000 1999 1,420 1,354 1,4852000 - 2001 2001 2000 1,421 1,363 1,4782001 - 2002 2002 2001 1,228 1,170 1,2862002 - 2003 2003 2002 1,025 977 1,0722003 - 2004 2004 2003 1,124 1,078 1,171
Estimate Period
Residence One Year Ago (original weights)Survey Year
Residence Was "Abroad" In
Estimate Lower Bound Upper Bound1999 - 2000 2000 1999 1,424 1,358 1,4902000 - 2001 2001 2000 1,421 1,355 1,4872001 - 2002 2002 2001 1,212 1,155 1,2692002 - 2003 2003 2002 1,025 977 1,0722003 - 2004 2004 2003 1,124 1,078 1,171
Estimate Period
Residence One Year Ago (revised weights*)Survey Year
Residence Was "Abroad" In
22Source: American Community Survey, 2000-2004
Residence One Year Ago:Imputation Ratesuniverse: foreign-born population
(in percent)
universe: foreign-born population, residence one year ago was abroad
(in percent)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Not Imputed 96.9 98.6 98.8 99.1 99.2Imputed 3.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8
IMPUTATION OF PLACE OF RESIDENCE ONE YEAR AGO
ACS DATA YEAR
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Not Imputed 88.5 95.0 97.0 96.0 96.0Imputed 11.5 5.0 3.0 4.0 4.0
IMPUTATION OF PLACE OF RESIDENCE ONE YEAR AGO
ACS DATA YEAR
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Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Residence One Year Ago No residence rules for prior residence Method requires an estimate of foreign-born
emigration
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Comparisons
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Residence One Year Ago- and Year of Entry- Based Inflows, and Single Year Change (Net Movement)
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year of Entry Was Prior Calendar YearResidence One Year Ago Was AbroadSingle Year Change, revised weights
(in thousands)
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Differences in Quality and Robustness Among Estimates
SEROYA<SEYOE<<SESYC
For the foreign born, imputation rates of place of residence one year ago are lower than those of year of entry
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Next Steps
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Components of NIM Warranting Further Investigation
Emigration
Coverage
Puerto Rico
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Ideas for Estimating Emigration
Record Linking Methods• Current Population Survey (CPS) method• Administrative Records (ADREC) method
Multiplicity Survey Methods
Data Exchange Methods
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Ideas for Estimating Emigration
Residual Methods• 10-year• 1-year ACS using foreign-born population
counts• 1-year ACS using internal migration
information
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Sources of Undercoverage of the Foreign Born
Complex Housing Arrangements Irregular Housing Units Language Barriers Fear of Government and Immigration
Authorities High Degrees of Mobility
• ACS Two-Month Residency Rule
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Estimation of Undercoverage of the Foreign Born
Various Methods and Assumptions Wide Ranging Estimates for Segments
of Foreign Born• Example - Range of 10 to 50 percent
undercount for unauthorized
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Immigration Statistics Staff
(301) 763-2411
Dean H. Judson, Chief
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/foreign.html