NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS: Meeting the information needs of a new era Ed Langham & Chris Dunstan Networks 2016, 20th May 2016

1.  Context: Information for a new era

2.  The Project

3.  The Maps – live online

4.  Future Opportunities

OVERVIEW

CONTEXT

TIME OF TRANSFORMATION: CONSUMPTION IS FLAT

isf.uts.edu.au ANNUAL ENERGY FORECAST FOR THE NEM (June 2015 NEFR)

Actual Forecast

TIME OF TRANSFORMATION: CONSUMPTION IS FLAT (ON THE GRID)

isf.uts.edu.au ANNUAL ENERGY FORECAST FOR THE NEM (June 2015 NEFR)

Actual Forecast

PEAK DEMAND – STILL RISING?

Source: 2015 AEMO National Electricity

Forecasting Report (NEFR) (June 2015)

Leads to an infrastructure utilisation problem…

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WE ARE ONLY AT THE BEGINNING

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THE CHANGING ELECTRICITY SECTOR

The past

Centralised supply Forecast demand Build least cost infrastructure Little engagement with customers (end users)

The future →  Decentralised supply →  Manage demand →  Invest in least cost supply and demand side mix →  Extensive engagement with customers (and retailers and service providers)

How  to  deliver  a  win-­‐win  for  networks  (NSPs)  and  customers?  

Informa<on  and  collabora<on  are  key  

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ELECTRICITY NETWORKS: LOCATION, LOCATION, TIME

Cost of networks matters to customers

Networks comprise ~50% power bills (nationally)

Network costs are highly location & season specific

Mapping can help identify priority areas for non-network alternatives (Decentralised Energy)

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ACT Qld NSW VIC* SA

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GST

Carbon Price

ESS/REES

GGAS /Qld Gas

SRES

LRET

FiT

Metering

Retail

Distribution

Transmission

Generation

Electricity prices by state (2011/12)

Source: AEMC , Future Possible Retail Electricity Price Movements, 2011; Treasury modelling (*Vic = 2012)

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Distributed Generation

Cogeneration

Standby Generation

Biomass Generation

Small Gas Generation

Solar Photovoltaics

Energy Efficiency

Efficient motors & chillers

Efficient Lighting

Efficient showerheads

Efficiency Retrofits

Behaviour change

Peak Load Management

Interruptible loads Power factor correction

Gas Chillers

Ice Storage

Electric to Gas Hot Water

Time of Use tariffs

Battery Storage / EVs

DECENTRALISED ENERGY (DE)

INCLUDES:

THE PROJECT

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Where  within  the  electricity  network  do  the  most  

cost-­‐effec3ve  DE  opportuni3es  exist?  

How  much  could  DE  be  worth  at  these  loca3ons?  

When  are  the  key  years  and  3mes  of  constraint?  

To  answer  these  ques3ons,  ISF  created  Network  Opportunity  Maps  

A resource to show where/when to target Renewable Energy and DE technologies & services: •  Annually updated through streamlined process •  Consistently applied in every (NEM) jurisdiction •  Freely available on online platform •  (Ultimately) woven into Networks’ Demand Side

Engagement Strategies

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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS

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NETWORK OPPORTUNITY MAPS •  Funded by ARENA, UTS, NSW Govt, and Ergon Energy •  Formal NSP partners: Ergon Energy, Electranet, TransGrid •  Data provision and collaboration with all NSPs in the NEM •  Produced on Data61’s (NICTA) new Australian Renewable

Energy Mapping Infrastructure (AREMI) portal •  http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/

•  2015 ‘sample maps’ available online now •  Today is first sneak preview of draft 2016 full NEM coverage

maps

PROJECT TIMELINE

Sample Maps

(Oct 2015)

1st Full Iteration

(July 2016)

2nd Full Iteration

(May 2017)

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WHAT DATA GOES IN?

•  All data comes from Network Service Providers •  For 2016 Maps: generally as published in 2015 Distribution Annual

Planning Reports, and 2014 Transmission Annual Planning Reports •  Proposed network investments (augmentation, some replacement/other) •  Cost of capital (WACC), depreciation •  NSP demand forecasts for each network asset •  Current capacity of lines and substations •  Zone substation region boundaries (+ how different assets connect) •  Hourly load data (load profiles)

THE MAPS: LIVE ONLINE

THE NEXT FRONTIER

It’s exciting but there are more ways to reveal value in the grid… •  Non-network opportunities for replacement expenditure

(repex). Requires: •  More repex data in the Network Opportunity Maps •  Develop and standardise processes for non-network alternatives

for repex investments •  Incorporating probabilistic planning principles –

ameliorating risk

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FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES •  Additional DE Resource Overlays: A public resource to

match network opportunities with cost effective alternatives to network augmentation: •  Other renewables (e.g. bioenergy, PV/storage, EVs) •  Other dist. generation (co-/trigeneration etc) •  Demand Response •  Energy Efficiency

•  Addressing other issues such as distributed generation connection capacity, or voltage management

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THANKYOU

Check out the sample maps: http://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/ [click ‘Electricity Infrastructure’, ‘Network Opportunities – ISF’]

Full NEM coverage coming late July 2016!

Ed Langham

Research Principal edward.langham@uts.edu.au (02) 9514 4971, 0403 820 913

Chris Dunstan

Research Director chris.dunstan@uts.edu.au

(02) 9514 4882, 0419 498 434