natural resources in a global perspective · 2018-06-27 · on modelling the global copper mining...

Natural resources in a global perspective

Niels HULSBOSCH, Manuel SINTUBIN and Philippe MUCHEZ

Geodynamics & Geofluids Research Group Departement of Earth and Environmental Sciences

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Celestijnenlaan 200 E - box 2410

3001 Leuven - Belgium

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences - Division of Geology 1

The Blue Marble – Apollo 17 (https://www.nasa.gov)

Core questions

1. Do we need primary resources in a circular economy?

2. What is the interrelation between primary production

(“mining”) and recycling?

Image source: https://www.rubiconglobal.com



Drivers affecting the impact of resource consumption on society:

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR)

I: impact of resource consumption on society

P: population (or better: consumers)

A: consumption per capita

E: resource efficiency of production

XR: degree of recycling

Ehrlich et al. (1992)

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR)


United Nations (2017)

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Global population (1/2)

Kharas (2017)


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Global consumers (2/2)

Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014): annual production data

Prior et al. (2012): ore grade evolution based on Australian mining data


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Signals resource consumption overshoots supply

System dynamic modelling: e.g. copper in WORLD6 model

Meadows et al, (1972, 1992, 2005); Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2014)


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Resource production: assessing scarcity (1/3)

Resource scarcity: - Finite reserves

- Extraction and consumption rates increase

- Ore grades decline

- Costs and extraction effort increase

Production struggles to meet demand

Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2014)


System dynamic modelling: e.g. copper in WORLD6 model

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Resource production: assessing scarcity (2/3)

WORLD6 model: Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2014); Sverdrup (2016) *: modelling in progress

Resource estimates, extractability, and price-supply-demand feedback loops of Deep sea mineral deposits included in WORLD6 model [Olafsdottir et al., 2017]


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Resource production: peak production (3/3)

The time-frame of scarcity predicted by System Dynamic Modelling

are in line with other predictions by other approaches (e.g. Burn-off time estimates, Peak discovery early warning signs, Hubbert peak analyses etc.)

! !

Metals in Mn-nodules

Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2014)


Importance of evaluating recycling in a dynamic system

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Recycling rates (1/3)

Metals in Mn-nodules


Grosse (2010)

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Effect of recycling on delaying scarcity (2/3)

• If “double decoupling” of global economy is achieved:

• Restrain total consumption growth

• Reduce share of primary resource (recycling, reuse etc.)

• Global consumption growth >1% per year recycling is

not significant in delaying resource scarcity.

• Global consumption growth <1% per year recycling

becomes effective in delaying resource scarcity.

• Only recycling rates >80% cause significant slowdown of

depletion of primary resource.

Grosse (2010); Binnemans et al. (2013); Morfeldt (2015)


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) When is recycling effective? (3/3)

• Most important metals for human society may run into scarcity

within the next decades.

• Substantial adjustments to global metal management needed:

recycling ↑, consumption ↓ and global population ↓.

• Recycling cannot fully replace primary mining.

• Primary production and recycling are complementary activities.

See also Meadows et al. (1972, 1992, 2005); Grosse (2010); Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2017)


Core message on global, long-term metal management


Primary production and recycling are complementary activities.

Recycling is essential and will hopefully be able to extend the

lifecycle time of most metals until global population numbers have

declined to sustainable levels.

References

Bardi, U., Pagani, M. Peak Minerals. The Oil Drum 2008: Europe. Available online: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3086

Binnemans, K., Jones, P.T., Blanpain, B., Van Gerven, T., Yang, Y., Walton, A., Buchert, M. (2013). Recycling of rare earths: a critical review. Journal of Cleaner Production 51, 1-22.

Ehrlich, P.R., Daily, G., Goulder, L. (1992). Population growth, economic growth and market economics. Contention 2, 17-35.

Heinberg, R. (2001) Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Decline in Earth’s Resources. Clairview Books, Forest Row, 224 pp.

Kharas, H. (2017). The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class-An update, Global Economy and Development working paper 100. Brookings. 32 pp.

Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Behrens, W., (1972). Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York.

Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., (1992). Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future. Chelsea Green Publishing Company.

Meadows, D.H., Randers, J., Meadows, D., (2005). Limits to Growth. The 30 year up-date, Universe Press, New York.

Morfeldt, J., Nijs, W., Silveira, S. (2015). The impact of climate targets on future steel production – an analysis based on a global energy system model. Journal of Cleaner Production 103, 469-482.

Olafsdottir, A.H., Sverdrup, H., Ragnarsdottir, K. V. (2017). On the metal contents of ocean floor nodules, crusts and massive sulphides and a preliminary assessment of the extractable amounts. WorldResources Forum 2017 Geneva, Switzerland. 9 pp.

Prior, T., Giurco, D., Mudd, G., Mason, L., Behrisch, J., (2012). Resource depletion, peak minerals and the implications for sustainable resource management. Global Environmental Change 22, 577–587.

Sverdrup, H., Ragnarsdottir, K. V. (2014). Natural resources in a planetary perspective. Geochemical perspectives 3, 2, 129-341.

Sverdrup, H., Ragnarsdottir, K. V., Koca, D. (2014). On modelling the global copper mining rates, market supply, copper price and the end of copper reserves. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 87, 158-174.

Sverdrup, H., Ragnarsdottir, K. V., Deniz, K. (2017). An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity. Journal of Cleaner Production 140. 359-372.

Sverdrup, H. (2016). On the integrated climate impact of resources and energy extraction and use in society.

United Nations (2017). World Population prospects: The 2017 revision. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

USGS, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013. Commodity Statistics for a Number of Metals. United States Geological Survey. http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/.

Valero, A., Valero, A. (2010). Physical geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 54. 1074-1083.


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3086

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

• 40 year lag time: natural resources in current global economy

(oil, coal, P, Fe, Cu, Au, Ag)

• 60-100 year lag time: Roman empire

1. Burn-off time [static approach]

2. Peak discovery early warning [static approach]

totale extractable amountBurn-off time =

present production

Peakproduction time = Peak discovery time + 40 years


Heinberg (2001); Bardi & Pagani (2008)

Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014)

I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Resource production: assessing scarcity

3. Hubbert’s peak production model

Hubbert (1956, 1982); Valero & Valero (2010); Sverdrup et al. (2014, 2017)



3. Hubbert’s peak production model [semi-dynamic approach]

Hubbert (1956, 1982); Valero & Valero (2010); Sverdrup et al. (2014, 2017)

max

max

2

1 cosh( ( ))

PP

b t t

max4 PURR

b

P: annual production

Pmax: maximum production rate

P(t): production P at time t

tmax: time of the peak

B: curve shape constant

URR: Ultimately recoverable reserve



Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir (2014); Sverdrup et al. (2014); USGS (2005, 2007, 2008, 2013)


4. System dynamic modelling: production and reserves


Grosse (2010)


I ~ P·A·E·(1-XR) Effect of recycling during constant consumption growth

natural resources in a global perspective · 2018-06-27 · on modelling the global copper mining...

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