National Weather Association Annual Meeting

Richard W. Spinrad, Ph.D.Assistant Administrator

NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric ResearchOctober 18, 2006

Atmospheric Research

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OverviewOverview

• Observing Systems

• Modeling

• Information Systems

• Test Beds

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Observing SystemsObserving SystemsGlobal Earth Observation System of

Systems

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Observing Systems Hurricanes

Observing Systems Hurricanes

Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer

Airborne Doppler RadarWP-3D & G-IV

NOAA Research developed radar that will provide unprecedented observations of the three-dimensional structure of the hurricane vortex

5Surface Wind Analysis

Observing Systems Hurricanes

Observing Systems Hurricanes

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Observing Systems Weather

Observing Systems Weather

Phased Array Radar

Polarimetric Radar

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Observing Systems Unmanned Aircraft Systems Observing Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Status:• Several tests conducted in 2005-06

Next Steps:• Continue UAS tests• Continue interagency collaborative

efforts• Continue to develop UAS capability

with Alaska officials

Broad Range of Platforms Types: High, Medium or Low

AltitudeSizes: Few lbs to size of 737Ranges: 1mile to 14,000 miles Endurance: 1 hour to >30 hoursAltitude: 100 ft to 65,000ft

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Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate

System 56% complete. Designed to meet climate

requirements but also supports:

Weather prediction Global and coastal ocean

prediction Marine hazards warning Transportation Marine environment and

ecosystem monitoring Naval applications Homeland security

Objectives are well defined with performance measures.

Well coordinated nationally and internationally – the ocean baseline of Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS).

IOOS Tide gauge stations IOOS Drifting Buoys IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys IOOS Argo Profiling Floats IOOS Ships of Opportunity IOOS Ocean Reference

Stations IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks

IOOS Arctic Observing System Dedicated Ship Support Data & Assimilation

Subsystems Management and Product

Delivery Satellites (managed outside of

IOOS)

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ModelingWRF-based Rapid Refresh

ModelingWRF-based Rapid Refresh

Status: • Rapid Refresh uses GSI analysis and WRF forecast model • Development and testing ongoing at NOAA ESRL

Next Steps: • Run Rapid Refresh in real-time test cycle at ESRL in 2007 • Pre-implementation testing at NCEP in 2008 • NCEP operational implementation in 2008-09

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New Global Model GFDL CM2.1

New Global Model GFDL CM2.1

Innovative features -

1. State of the art model physics

2. Software for modern supercomputers

3. Widespread public dissemination of model output

Lead to –

1. Outstanding ability to simulate past climate, increasing our confidence in future projections

2. Wide recognition of world class status of GFDL/NOAA models

Observed global temperature

Modeled global temperature

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2006 model improvements:

1. Explicit cloud microphysics

2. Improved surface fluxes

3. Assimilation of observed Loop Current structure

Lead to –

1. Accelerated multi-year trend of reduced intensity error

2. Intensity predictions in 2006 that had lowest errors of all guidance

Modeling Upgraded GFDL Hurricane Model

Modeling Upgraded GFDL Hurricane Model

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HWRFHWRF

DENNISDENNIS

Modeling Hurricane WRF

Modeling Hurricane WRF

Next Steps:• Provide high-quality atmosphere and ocean observations for assimilation into and evaluation of HWRF• Explore technologies to obtain and use new observing systems (e.g., GEOSS, IFEX)• Test and evaluate new techniques to represent key physical processes• Develop new techniques to evaluate/diagnose the HWRF fields• Accelerate transition of promising technologies to operations (e.g., JHT)

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GFDL model upgrades:1. GFDL has continued to

upgrade its hurricane prediction system every hurricane season.

2. Major upgrades made in both resolution and physics.

Lead to –

Lowest track error of any other model guidance over the past 4 years in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific at each forecast time level.

Modeling GFDL Hurricane Model Skill

Modeling GFDL Hurricane Model Skill

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Information SystemsAWIPS Evolution

Information SystemsAWIPS Evolution

Status:

• Efforts underway to develop new modeling and graphics products

• Some testing just completed, report pending

Potential Benefit:

• Operational flexibility

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TestbedsTestbeds

• USWRP Joint Hurricane Testbed

• Hydrometeorology Testbed

• Development Test Center – WRF Model

• High-Impact Weather Testbed

• Climate Testbed

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Joint Hurricane Testbed

Joint Hurricane Testbed

Status:• 6th year, 4th round of two-year competitive awards• 15 of first 24 projects accepted for operations • Result -- measurable improvement in track and intensity forecasts at landfall through improved decision support capabilities and operational hurricane modeling

Next Steps: • Continue funding 2-year competitive awards • Increased emphasis on improved intensity forecasting • Once significant improvements are documented, emphasize improved forecasting of rainfall

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HMT WEST - Cool Season

HMT EAST – All Season, including Hurricane LandfallHMT CENTRAL

– Warm Season

Status:• Recommended by USWRP• Implementing regionally• HMT-prototype 2003-04• HMT-West 2005-09• Addresses Sacramento flood risk

Next Steps:• Provide state-of-the-art QPEto evaluate hydrologic models• Winter QPF in mountains• HMT-East (2009-12)• HMT-Central (2012-16)

Hydrometeorological Testbed

Hydrometeorological Testbed

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Current status: • Established process for testing and evaluating new NWP science and technologies and retrospective testing of operational model systems• Built strong working relationship between the research and operational communities

Next step: • Complete interagency Terms of Reference needed to establish stable resources for maintaining and supporting WRF Reference Code to the community

Testbeds Developmental Test Center

Testbeds Developmental Test Center

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Current Status:• Operated jointly each Spring• 50-60 government, academic, & private sector researchers & forecasters participate

Next Steps:• Continue expansion of scope to include warning-scale (0-1 hour) problems by including Weather Forecast Office participation• Assess operational benefits of new systems (PAR, Polarimetric radar, 3D Lightning Mapping Array, CASA Radars)• Help develop and assess probabilistic warning products

Hazardous Weather Testbed

Hazardous Weather Testbed

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Climate Test Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA Climate

ForecastOperations

NOAA Climate

ForecastOperations

Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

Accelerate transition of climate research to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Status: • Consolidation of multi method

Seasonal Forecasts at CPC • Experimental Drought Early

Warning System for NIDIS• Drought Early Warning

System (DEWS) for NIDIS

Next Steps:• FY07: budget includes 1-2 additional competitive projects; new and improved official climate forecast products

Climate TestbedClimate Testbed

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Forecast for the Future

The goal is to access and provide the right information, in

the right format, at the right time, to the right people, to make

the right decisions.

Questions?www.research.noaa.gov

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Backup SlidesBackup Slides

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Importance of Research to Operations Hurricane Modeling Improvement

Importance of Research to Operations Hurricane Modeling Improvement

GFDL-URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean ModelFactors the Effect of the Ocean on Hurricanes

Reduction in 3-5 day hurricane track and intensity forecast errors

One of the most accurate tropical cyclone forecast systems in use today

Contributed to reduction of official track forecast errors by 1/3 over last 15 years

Represents 16 years of hurricane model development

Continually Improved

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1-km altitude

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1-km

• Doppler analyses from 1st W-E leg during Katrina landfall showing asymmetry in horizontal and vertical wind distribution

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Inflow and shallow wind max to West

Outflow and deep wind max to East

Observing SystemsObserving SystemsHurricanes

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Test bed conceptTest bed concept

Marty RalphNOAA/ETL-PACJET

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TestbedsTestbeds

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

NOAA, NASA, DODMission

Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models• Current generation data• Prepare for next-generation (NPOESS, METOP, research) instruments• Supports applied research• Partners - University, Government and Commercial Labs

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Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

Tide Gauges

Argo Floats

Tsunami Buoys

Hurricane Buoys

AVHRR