national textile center
TRANSCRIPT
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National Textile Center
10 Years of Leadership
1992-2002
Presented byDr. Thomas J. Malone
February 10, 2002
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The Power of Collaboration
Fiber/Fabric
App
arel
and
Oth
er
Fabr
icat
ed T
extil
e Pr
oduc
ts
RetailUSA INTEGRATED
TEXTILE INDUSTRIES
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Dr. Joe Cunning
CONGRATULATIONS!!!and
THANKS!!!for
10 Years
World Class Leadershipof the
National Textile Center
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National Textile Center
1992 – 200210 Years
ofChange
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Why is NTC
Important for
America?
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Because:
NTCcan
Makea
DIFFERENCE
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National Textile CenterVision and Mission
VISION
MISSION
To be the agent leading change in the industry’s vision and in education for global competitiveness.
To enhance the knowledge base that drives the momentum of the U.S. Industry competitiveness.
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National Textile CenterGOALS
Research
Education
To discover, design and develop new materials, innovative and improved manufacturing processes, and integrated systems essential to the success of a modern U.S. textile enterprise.
• To educate and train personnel• Establish industrial partnerships• Create transfer mechanisms to ensure utilization of
developed technologies
PartnershipTo strengthen the nation’s textile research and educational efforts by uniting diverse experts and resources in unique collaborative projects.
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Oversight Committee
Technical AdvisoryCommittee
GeorgiaTech
Clemson Auburn N. C. State
National Textile CenterOriginal Organizational Chart
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National Textile Center1992-2001
31 Different TAC & Oversight Members from Industry
AlabamaNorth CarolinaSouth CarolinaGeorgiaPennsylvaniaNew YorkMassachusetts
NTC STATESArizonaCaliforniaDelawareIowaIllinoisLouisianaNevada
New JerseyNew MexicoOhioOklahomaRhode IslandTennesseeVirginia
OTHER STATES COUNTRIES*AustraliaChinaEnglandFranceIsraelJapan
Investigators have come from 21 Different States and 6 countries
*(Mostly Visiting Professors)
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National Textile Centeris growing
in both budgetand
number of schoolslargely
because industry
believes in our mission
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National Textile CenterNumber of Participating Universities
4 4 4 4
8
7
666
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
AuburnGeorgia Tech
ClemsonNorth Carolina State
Philadelphia University
University of Mass-DartmouthCornell
UCal Davis
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National Textile CenterANNUAL FUNDING
1992-2002
8.0 7.8
9.0 9.0
10.09.89.0
7.5
9.0
7.07.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Be
Between 1992 and 1996 there were 4 Universities:Auburn, Ga. Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina StateUniversity of Mass-Dartmouth added in 1997Philadelphia University added in 1998Cornell added in 2001 and UCal Davis added in 2002
Total $83.5MM
MM$
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26
5
13
23
31
1316
35
8
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
National Textile CenterNumber of Projects Initiated
New projects initiated in that year.
Total:183 Projects
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33
19
5
21
7
38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Auburn Clemson UMassD GA Tech PhilaU NCSU
National Textile CenterNumber of Projects Completed by University
New projects initiated in that year.
Total:109 Completed14 Cancelled
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88
34
2622
3228
35
58
1821
0
20
40
60
80
100
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
National Textile CenterNumber of Investigators
Includes only new principal investigators to NTC; i.e. investigators on multiple projects only counted once.
Total:362 Investigators
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National Textile CenterNumber of Students
227
17
58
159
80
35
101
181
35 42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Largely graduate students, but also includes some undergraduate and post-doctoral (all categories undercounted due to underreporting.
Total:935
Students
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National Textile CenterCumulative Breakdown by University
61
2820 29
97
82
230
128134
25
369
45 27 1154
27 15
3942
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Auburn Cornell Clemson UMassD GA Tech PhilaU NCSU Other
Projects Investigators Students
336
183 200
520
82
17
73 69
Updated: 1/28/02
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0 400 800 1200 1600
National Textile CenterIntellectual Property
Publications/Presentations
1,674
Theses
Copyrights/Noticesof Invention
Patents/Applications
205
37
19
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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
10
National Textile CenterCollaborations/Technology Transfer
IndustrialCollaborations 3766
Non NTC AcademicCollaborations
Students Involvedin NTC Research
Government andOther Collaborations
1656
928
735
Technology Transfer Programs
StartupCompanies 5
Industry Funded
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National Textile Center1992-2001
Patents and ApplicationsCopyrights and Notices of InventionStartup CompaniesTechnology Transfer Programs (Industry-Funded)ThesesPublications and PresentationsStudents Involved in NTC ResearchIndustrial CollaborationsNon-NTC Academic CollaborationsGovernment and Other Collaborations
1937
510
2051,674
9283,7661,656
735
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OVERALL
6,157IP/Collaborations/Tech Transfer
61% Industrial
National Textile Center
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1992-2002Decade of Change
What has happened to USA
Total Manufacturing?
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3
-2 -6
1
-6
9
-10-34 -26 -37
-67
-113
-145-160
-127 -109
-74-96
-133
-174-197
-247
-346
-452-428
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
U. S. Balance of International Trade
In GoodsBalance in Billions $ Per Year
Source: Department of Commerce FT-900
Projected Decrease from 2000 to 2001 of
$24B or 5.3%
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“If there is one rule of international economics, it is that no country can run a large trade deficit forever. Trade deficits need to be financed, and it is simply impossible to borrow enough to keep up with the compound interest. Yet all the world trade, especially that on the Pacific Rim, depends upon most of this world being able to run trade surpluses with the United States that will allow them to pay for their trade deficits with Japan. When the lending to America stops, and it will stop, what happens to current world trade flows?”
Lester ThurowThe Future of Capitalism
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18867
19216
19436
19268
18754
18229
1806918112
1851318502 18537
1883318681
18492
18349
17027
16,500
17,500
18,500
19,500
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
TotalUSA Manufacturing Jobs
Data as of Year End+35
+.2%
+296
+1.5%
-152
-.8%
-1322
-7.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milliken Marketing Research 1/4/02
1,475 Thousand Jobs Lost Last 6 Years or 8% Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
-189 -143
-1.0% -.8%
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"I regret that trade policy has been
inextricably linked with job creation. We try to promote free trade on the mistaken ground that it will create jobs. [But] it is difficult to find credible evidence that trade has impacted the level of total employment in this country over the long run."
"I regret that trade policy has been
inextricably linked with job creation. We try to promote free trade on the mistaken ground that it will create jobs. [But] it is difficult to find credible evidence that trade has impacted the level of total employment in this country over the long run."
Alan GreenspanFederal Reserve Board Chairman
Washington PostApril 17, 1999
Alan GreenspanFederal Reserve Board Chairman
Washington PostApril 17, 1999
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1992-2002Decade of Change
What has
happened to the
USA Textile
Manufacturing?
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-$65,000
-$55,000
-$45,000
-$35,000
-$25,000
-$15,000
-$5,000
Textile & ApparelTrade Deficit
Millions of Dollars: U.S. Exports (F.A.S.) Minus Imports (Customs) for Each Year
Source: ATMI Textile HiLights
Projected increasefrom 2000 to 2001 of
$.8B or 1.3%
NA
FT
A
59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 00 01 61.6
52.8
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Manufacturing Textiles
Source: Federal Reserve , Last data point December, 2001Release Date: January 16, 2002
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXAll Manufacturing and Textiles
1992 = 100
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00E 01E
USA Integrated Textile Industries Market Plus ExportsTextiles, Apparel, and Other Fabricated Textile Products
Billion Square Meters Equivalent
Changes: 1981-2001E
2001 Est. Change in SME
Total USA Market +16.4 SME
Potential USA Production
w/Market Growth +16.5
SME
Imports +19.4 SME
Exports +2.8 SME
Total USA Production –3.0 SME
USA Production for Domestic Markets -5.8 SME
Source: Werner International (Note: 2001 estimated market decline was based on 7% reduction in textile mill shipment through October 2001—applied to 2000 Est. of U. S. Prod. And to total market.
-1.2
-1.1
+0
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4NA
FT
A
AS
IA D
EV
AL
UA
TIO
N
CB
I
Since NAFTA Domestic
Production -6.4B SME
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18061837
1798 1776
1679 1692 1678 1644 1657
1535
14671415
1311
1203
1114
968900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
USAIntegrated Textile Industries Jobs
Textiles, Apparel, and Fabricated Textile Products(Excludes Man-Made Fibers, Natural Fibers, and Textile Machinery Production)
Data as of Year End
567 Thousand Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
or 37% Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
-1047.3%
-1088.2%
-897.4%
-146 13.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milliken Marketing Research 1/4/02
-523.5%
-684.4%
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1096 11011075 1068
1005 10181001
972 975
895
847
803
731
660
604
525500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
US Apparel and Other Fabricated Textile Product Jobs(Excludes Man-Made Fibers, Natural Fibers, and Textile Machinery Production)
Data as of Year End
370 Thousand Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
or 41.3% Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
-729.0%
-719.7%
-568.5%
-79 13.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milliken Marketing Research 1/5/01
-445.2%
-485.4%
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710
736723
708
674 674 677 672 682
640
620 612
580
543
510
443
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Total USA Textile Jobs
Data as of Year End
197 Thousand Jobs Lost Last 6 Years
or 30.8% Jobs Lost Last 6Years
-32 5.2%
-37 6.4%
-33 6.1%
-67 13.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milliken Marketing Research 1/5/01
-81.3%
-203.1%
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28
52
7058
206
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
TEXTILE PLANTCLOSINGS
414 PlantsLast 5 Years
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US Sewn Apparel down to 10% of US Market
Assuming China in WTO and effects of CBI Parity and Sub-Sahara Africa
38%
10% 6%
15%17%
17%
13%
20%21%
21%
43%
54% 56% 59%
4%
5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010
SM
E S
har
e o
f U
S A
pp
arel
Mar
ket
Rest of World
CBI (Includes 807)
Mexico(Includes 807)
US Production(US Cut andSew)
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Imports from Mexico using less US Fabric
Apparel Imports from Mexico(Millions of SME's)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
E
Non 807
807
807a
Portionw/ US Fabric
-8%
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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CBI growth weakens despite CBI Parity
Apparel Imports from CBI(Millions of SME's)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
E
Non 807
807
807a
Portionw/ US Fabric
- 2%
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Mexico and CBI exports fall despite CBI parity
U.S. TEXTILE EXPORTS*
Percent Change Percent ChangeYTD 9/00 - YTD 9/01 1996 - 2000
World -9% 36%
- Mexico and CBI -8% 73%
- Asia -6% -4%
- EU -9% -23%
*Includes exports of cut pieces of US fabric to Mexico and the CBI for reassembly into garments.
Source : US DOC and US ITC via ATMI Based on US$ value of exports, not SME’s as in Import data
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Imports from Asia explode Post-Devaluation
IMPORTS FROM ASIA
Textiles and Apparel in Year-Ending ChangeMillions of square meters September 2001 from 1996
Asia 16,108 69%
- Pakistan 2,107 159% - Thailand 1,308 108% - Indonesia 1,159 92% - South Korea 1,392 91% - Bangladesh 1,186 90% - Sri Lanka 661 55% - Philippines 909 46% - India 1,220 40% - China 2,163 32% - Hong Kong 1,092 22% - Japan 261 6% - Taiwan 1,224 2%
Source : US DOC and US ITC via ATMI Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00E 01E
USA Integrated Textile Industries Market Plus ExportsTextiles, Apparel, and Other Fabricated Textile Products
Billion Square Meters Equivalent
Changes: 1994- 2001E
2001 Est. Change in SME
Total USA Market +3.4 SME
Potential USA Production
w/Market Growth +3.5 SME
Imports +9.8 SME
Exports +1.6 SME
Total USA Production –6.4 SME
USA Production for Domestic Markets –8.0 SME
Source: Werner International (Note: 2001 estimated market decline was based on 7% reduction in textile mill shipment through October 2001—applied to 2000 Est. of U. S. Prod. And to total market.
-1.2
-1.1
+0
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4NA
FT
A
AS
IA D
EV
AL
UA
TIO
N
CB
I
Since NAFTA Domestic
Production -6.4B SME
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Textile profits plunge after Asian devaluation
Source : ATMI Textile Highlights - December 2001
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Bil
lio
n D
oll
ars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ind
ex 1
995
=1
00
Textile Profits Asian Currency IndexFernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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“Our manufacturing base is being eroded as dollars are diverted from wealth creation to wealth consumption. If economic history has any lesson for us, it is that a nation’s well-being is determined by what it produces, not by how much it consumes.”
Roger MillikenTextile Hall of FameSeptember 10, 2001
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What WeNeed to Do
ToSurvive
as aHealthy Industry
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Kurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 24, 2002
The Textile Industry
“Current Status and Actions Needed to Win”
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Future Wins Block new agreements that allow duty-free foreign fabric
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Effect of Recent Trade Agreements
• NAFTA– Dramatic textile over-capacity in Mexico as a result of NAFTA– Leading to closures of US Denim and Knitwear plants
• CBTPA (Caribbean Basin Trade & Partnership Act)/CBI Parity – Apparel costs reduced by 6% to 12% into US– But not enough to offset Asian prices– If dyeing and finishing is allowed, further over-capacity would ensue
• AGOA (African Growth & Opportunity Act)– Opened trade for the Sub-Saharan nations mainly with Asian fabric– Apparel Imports up 38% (YTD October)
• US/Jordan Free Trade Agreement– Removes quotas and duty for participating zones– Explosive growth YTD (>600%) with non-US fabrics
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Current Trade Issues• Continued Developments in the Caribbean
Supply Base– Expansion of fabric capabilities ( Dye and Finish) is a major threat– “807” with foreign fabrics– Enforcement of US origin provisions under the current act
• New “Free Trade” agreements with other regions:– Andean Pact– Central America– Free Trade of the Americas– Etc. (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, et al)
• ASEAN, South Asia and China– Participation under WTO eliminates quotas– Industry policy and investment strategies– Relative cost position Fernando Silva
Kurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Educate yourself and representatives about the importance of U. S. manufacturing jobs and the “unfair” advantages foreign countries are exercising.
Demand that trade laws be enforced and blow the whistle on violators.
Ask for definitions of free trade from those who criticize or may be uninformed.
Look for American products as much as possible.
FIGHT FOR BUSINESS
Andy WarlickSouthern Textile AssociationJanuary 2002
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Future Wins Block new agreements that allow duty-free foreign fabric
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
Prevail in CBI “dye and finish” issue
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Northern Textile AssociationPromises made to Textile Caucus Members for TPA Vote
December 2001
1. Foreign Market Opening2. Enforcement of Trade Agreements3. Quota Phase-Out4. (a) Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act dyeing,
printing, and finishing(b) Andean Trade Preferences Act dyeing, printing
and finishing5. Export Promotion6. Transshipment7. War on Terrorism8. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA)9. Trade remedy laws
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Northern Textile AssociationPromises made to Textile Caucus Members for TPA Vote
December 2001
4. (a) Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act dyeing, printing, and finishing
House Leadership Promise:“Pledge to bring no future bills with trade provisions to the House floor until the TDA 2001 (sic) is corrected to require that U.S. knit and woven fabrics be required to undergo all dyeing, finishing, and printing procedures in the U.S. in order to qualify for the benefits under the CBTPA.”
Secretary Evans’ Promises:“The Administration recognizes the importance to Members of the dyeing and finishing issue under the provisions of the CBTPA. We support an agreement by Congress that would address this issue while maintaining the balance of benefits provided under the program.” (Emphasis added.)
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Future Wins Block new agreements that allow duty-free foreign fabric
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
Prevail in CBI “dye and finish” issue
Improve competitiveness of US fiber : cotton and MMF
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US Polyester prices averaged 32% higher than Asian prices from 1988 to 2001
Polyester Short Staple Prices : US vs Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
1988 Q1 1990 Q1 1992 Q1 1994 Q1 1996 Q1 1998 Q1 2000 Q1 2002 Q1
US
Ce
nts
per
Kilo
US Prices
Asian Prices
Source : PCI - Fibres and Raw Materials Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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In 2001 US producers had a significant cotton price disadvantage to foreign mills
World Cotton Prices - Cotlook A Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 Q1
US
cen
ts/p
ou
nd
Effective Foreign Price $0.43 / lb in 2001
Effective US Price $0.58 / lb in 2001
$700million
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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Future Wins Block new agreements that allow duty-free foreign fabric
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
Focus on differentiated products and short lead times:
Strategic supplier and customer relationships for innovation
Reduce lead times through supply chain technology/strategies
Prevail in CBI “dye and finish” issue
Improve competitiveness of US fiber : cotton and MMF
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Focus on differentiated products and short lead times:
Reduce lead times through supply chain technology/strategies
Strategic supplier and customer relationships for innovation
FUTURE WINS
Fernando SilvaKurt Salmon AssociatesJanuary 2002
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“Now as our country stands alone as the world’s last remaining super power, we in textiles and almost all of U.S. manufacturing find ourselves at risk of losing what our forefathers fought so hard to create. This is neither necessary nor wise!”
Roger MillikenTextile Hall of FameSeptember 10, 2001
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Why is NTC
Important for
America?
National Textile Center
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Because:
NTCcan
Makea
DIFFERENCE
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We Survive!!Each year is a new
funding cycle for
Congress and we get
through it!
National Textile Center
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NTC CHALLENGE
Focuson
Making Your
Research Useful
“Make A Difference”
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Makea
RealDifference!!
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Organize a collective effort to
communicate the importance of:
A. Manufacturing
B. Textile Industry Value Added Innovation
National Textile CenterCHALLENGE
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NTC CHALLENGEFocus
On
Innovation(Technology/Products)
and
Short Lead Times(Speed)
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With
Vision, Commitment
and
PassionThe Industry can
WIN!!
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If the Industry
WinsNTC Wins!!!
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The Power of Collaboration
Fiber/Fabric
App
arel
and
Oth
er
Fabr
icat
ed T
extil
e Pr
oduc
ts
RetailUSA INTEGRATED
TEXTILE INDUSTRIES
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Dr. Joe Cunning
CONGRATULATIONS!!!and
THANKS!!!for
10 Years
World Class Leadershipof the
National Textile Center
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