national hydraulic research institute of malaysia (nahrim) 1 impact of climate change on malaysia...

11NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MALAYSIA WATER RESOURCES

byby

Ir. Salmah Zakaria, PhDIr. Salmah Zakaria, PhDIr. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin ShaabanIr. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin Shaaban

21-22 June 200721-22 June 2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

198

4

1985

198

6

1987

198

8

1989

1990

199

1

1992

199

3

2041

204

2

2043

204

4

2045

2046

204

7

2048

204

9

2050

Year

Ann

ual P

reci

pita

tion

(m

m)

West Coarst Klang Selangor TerengganuKelantan Pahang Perack Kedah

Johor Southern Peninsula N.East Coast

Simulated Historical Period Simulated Future Period


THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)

USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

OUTLINEOUTLINE


THE NEEDTHE NEED National Water Resources Study National Water Resources Study

(Peninsular Malaysia) Mac 2000(Peninsular Malaysia) Mac 2000

- - Master Plan for the Development of Water Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050

- - Did not take into account potential change ofDid not take into account potential change of hydrologic regime and water resources due hydrologic regime and water resources due

to to climate changeclimate change Initial National Communication (2000)/ Initial National Communication (2000)/

National Communication 2 (2007-2009)National Communication 2 (2007-2009)


National Communication 2 (NC2)National Communication 2 (NC2)[2007-2009][2007-2009]

Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate change issues and impacts into the national change issues and impacts into the national and local strategic and development plans. and local strategic and development plans.

3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: 3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: • WG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) InventoryWG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Inventory• WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) • WG 3 - MitigationWG 3 - Mitigation


WG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIMWG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIM• to undertake an assessment of potential impacts to undertake an assessment of potential impacts

of climate change on several vulnerable sectors of climate change on several vulnerable sectors • to formulate corresponding adaptation measuresto formulate corresponding adaptation measures

7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):• Agriculture (MARDI)Agriculture (MARDI)• Forestry (FDPM)Forestry (FDPM)• Biodiversity (FRIM)Biodiversity (FRIM)• Water resources (NAHRIM)Water resources (NAHRIM)• Coastal and marine resources (DID)Coastal and marine resources (DID)• Public health (MOH)Public health (MOH)• Energy (PTM)Energy (PTM)


2 support groups under WG2:2 support groups under WG2:

• Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried out in Malaysia, projections studies carried out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data. based on available climate models and data.

• Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic impact and responses from global warming impact and responses from global warming and climate changes as well as adaptation and climate changes as well as adaptation measures.measures.


Malaysia climate projections in the coming Malaysia climate projections in the coming years required in assessing vulnerability and years required in assessing vulnerability and adaptation for various sub sectors:adaptation for various sub sectors:

• NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change projections in Malaysia. projections in Malaysia.

• RegHCM-PMRegHCM-PM - NAHRIM’s - NAHRIM’s Regional Hydro-climate Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular MalaysiaModel of Peninsular Malaysia (completed in 2006) (completed in 2006) will be the current basis for identifying the will be the current basis for identifying the vulnerability and adaptation measures. vulnerability and adaptation measures.

• Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007. Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007.


1. To develop a regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia and validate the model by historic hydrologic-atmospheric data

2. To evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia by means of the developed regional hydrologic-atmospheric model

(RegHCM-PM)

Objective of Study

Phase 1 (Peninsular Malaysia)• Aug 2002 – Dec 2006Phase 2 (Sabah and Sarawak)• Jun 2007 –Dec 2009

Work Program


THE NEEDTHE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)




Summary of transient coupled GCM experiment results for climate change assessment

GCM Reference Flux Scenario Warming EquilibriumName Adjusted? At Doubling Warming CGCM1(CANADA) Boer et al. 2000 Yes IS92a 1.7o 3.5o

CSIRO(AUSTRALIA) Gordon & O’Farrell,1996 Yes 1%/year 2.0o 4.3o

GFDL(USA) Manabe et al. 1992 Yes 1%/year 2.2o 3.7o

GIS(USA) Russell et al. 1995 No 1%/year 1.4o __

MPI(Germany) Hasselmann et al. 1995 Yes IS92a __ 2.6o

MRI(JAPAN) Tokioka et al. 1995 Yes 1%/year 1.6o __ NCAR/CCSM(USA) Washington & Meehl,1996 No 1%/year 3.8o 4.6o

HadCM2(UK) Johns et al. 1997 Yes IS92a __ 2.5o

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL USED


CGCM1 simulated monthly precipitation over the region that encompasses Peninsular Malaysia during 2049. Letters indicate the locations of the CGCM1 grids.


A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed

To downscale the global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km).

To be able to quantify the impact of the complex topographical and land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climate conditions.

REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELMODEL


Global Scale Atmospheric

& Ocean Data

CGCM, NCEP

Topography &

Landcover (USGS)

Soil ( FAO)

Boundary Condition

s I nitial Fields

MM5 Model Outer

Domain

Boundary Conditions

Initial Fields

MM5 Model

2nd Domain

Boundary Conditions

Initial Fields

MM5 Model Inner

Domain

Watershed Scale Hydro-climate

Output

IRSHAM Model

Domain

Topography, Landcover

& Soil

(NAHRIM)

Model Nesting

Regional Scale Model ConfigurationRegional Scale Model ConfigurationCGCM1 MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5)

Regional HCM-PM


Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are

shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.RegHCM-PM are shown as green.


The grid layout for the outer domain (1The grid layout for the outer domain (1stst Domain, 26x28 Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM under grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM under

Mercator projection. Mercator projection.


Selected subregions in Peninsular Malaysia for Selected subregions in Peninsular Malaysia for hydroclimate comparisons between the RegHCM-hydroclimate comparisons between the RegHCM-

PM modeled values and observationsPM modeled values and observations


The Map in the left shows the rain gages that were used in the The Map in the left shows the rain gages that were used in the validation, and the map on the right shown the locations of validation, and the map on the right shown the locations of

weather station at which the temperature data were used for weather station at which the temperature data were used for validationvalidation


Locations of the selected stream Locations of the selected stream gauging stations and watershedsgauging stations and watersheds


Validation of Simulated Precipitation with Observed Precipitation


Validation of Simulated Streamflow with Observed Streamflow


RainfallRainfall

In annual rainfall:In annual rainfall:• dry years (1993, and 2044) dry years (1993, and 2044) • wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049)wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049)

A substantial A substantial increaseincrease in mean monthly in mean monthly rainfall over therainfall over the North East Coastal region North East Coastal region and overand over Kelantan Kelantan..

A A decreasedecrease in mean monthly rainfall over in mean monthly rainfall over Selangor and JohorSelangor and Johor..


Higher maximum and lower Higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed in the minimum rainfall are observed in the future in many sub regionsfuture in many sub regions

More extreme hydrological conditions More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected.may be expected.


Simulated annual rainfall (historical and future period) at sub regions of Peninsular Malaysia


Region NameRegion Name Maximum monthly Maximum monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)

Mean monthly Mean monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)

Minimum monthly Minimum monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)

HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture

West CoastWest Coast 600600 560560 179179 176176 12.412.4 7.97.9

KlangKlang 436436 601601 190190 182182 12.812.8 5.95.9

SelangorSelangor 564564 526526 190190 181181 12.212.2 8.38.3

TerengganuTerengganu 12711271 19141914 289289 299299 33.633.6 14.014.0

KelantanKelantan 930930 11291129 222222 240240 15.415.4 10.910.9

PahangPahang 634634 685685 199199 208208 24.524.5 16.616.6

PerakPerak 723723 768768 193193 199199 9.09.0 4.14.1

KedahKedah 627627 705705 174174 177177 2.12.1 1.11.1

JohorJohor 592592 538538 187187 180180 13.313.3 5.25.2

Southern PeninsulaSouthern Peninsula 544544 609609 194194 196196 18.918.9 14.414.4

N. East CoastN. East Coast 14411441 15731573 260260 282282 19.519.5 9.99.9

Summary of simulated monthly rainfall during the historical and future Summary of simulated monthly rainfall during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysiaperiods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia


Wet Year1989 2043


Dry Year1993 2044


River FlowRiver Flow

Mean monthly flows - stay about the same Mean monthly flows - stay about the same in most watersheds except in in most watersheds except in Kelantan Kelantan and Pahang where it increasesand Pahang where it increases and and Selangor and Johor where it decreasesSelangor and Johor where it decreases. .

Hydrological extremes will be magnified Hydrological extremes will be magnified significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang watersheds.Pahang watersheds.


Future monthly flows - lower and the Future monthly flows - lower and the maximum monthly flows will be maximum monthly flows will be significantly higher than their historical significantly higher than their historical counterparts in these watersheds. counterparts in these watersheds.

An increase in inter-annual and intra-An increase in inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability with seasonal variability with increased increased hydrologic extremeshydrologic extremes (higher high flows, (higher high flows, and lower low flows) in and lower low flows) in Kelantan, Pahang, Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and KedahTerengganu and Kedah watersheds. watersheds.


Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at

Jambatan. Jerangau, Dungun, Terengganu (region no. 4)


Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at

Temerloh, Pahang (region no. 6).


Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at Rantau

Panjang, Johor (region no. 9).


Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at Rantau

Panjang, Selangor (region no. 3).



Jambatan. Syed Omar, Muda, Kedah (region no. 8)



Jambatan. Iskandar, Perak (region no. 7)


Region NameRegion Name Maximum Monthly Maximum Monthly Flow (cms)Flow (cms)

Mean Monthly Flows Mean Monthly Flows (cms)(cms)

Minimum Monthly Flow Minimum Monthly Flow (cms)(cms)

HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture

KlangKlang 31.231.2 45.845.8 14.414.4 13.313.3 2.62.6 3.53.5

Selangor Selangor 108108 109109 40.740.7 37.537.5 7.17.1 0.50.5

TerengganuTerengganu 398398 570570 93.493.4 98.398.3 13.113.1 10.810.8

KelantanKelantan 15351535 19511951 536536 602602 158158 126126

PahangPahang 16971697 21772177 667667 718718 156156 123123

PerakPerak 524524 578578 286286 300300 184184 139139

KedahKedah 307307 340340 106106 104104 25.325.3 5.35.3

JohorJohor 82.782.7 94.094.0 32.732.7 31.831.8 9.89.8 6.86.8

Summary of simulated flows during the historical and future Summary of simulated flows during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysiaperiods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia


Climate Change projection have to be studied Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, public health & energy) of Malaysiapublic health & energy) of Malaysia

Expected changes in water availability by year Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular MalaysiaPeninsular Malaysia

Studies at selected river basins on performance Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic under future water demands and hydrologic regimeregime

ConclusionsConclusions


Further downscaling studies using other Further downscaling studies using other GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI-GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI-CGCM2.3.2- MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM2.3.2- MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM3.1- Canada)CGCM3.1- Canada)

Further research on the future hydrologic Further research on the future hydrologic regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics at finer temporal and spatial timescales)at finer temporal and spatial timescales)

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