national drought management authority · 2015 7 0 68 2014 0 11.65 79.59 84 60.63 11.51 10.79 5.14...

15
DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2015 National Drought Management Authority TANA RIVER COUNTY Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. There was no rainfall received within the month of March. The vegetation conditions are gradually worsening with the overall county VCI of 25.09 falling far below the normal ranges of 35-50. Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 30.9 and 28 which is a larger reduction compared to last month. The situation is far below normal in Bura (with a VCI of 25.09) sub-county indicating severe drought on a worsening trend compared to last month. SPI for February shows unusual fluctuations from normal range throughout the county. Currently State of water sources is at the range of ‘3in the county. This is still below normal range of ‘5and the situation might worsen with the progressing of short dry spell. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the ongoing short dry spell, massive migrations of livestock moving towards the fall back grazing areas of Tana Delta is expected if long rains fail to perform well. Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is fair within mixed livelihood zones but at Borderline in both Pastoral and Marginal mixed. Some livelihood zones are showing signs of stress (12 th and 13 th ribs visible). Utilization indicators The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk remains Stable at 11% of the previous month of February to 11% in the month of March. The stable status of the nutritional status of children under the age of 5 Years is attributed to ongoing interventions during this dry spell period. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Pastoral Alert Worsening Marginal Mixed Farming Alert Worsening Mixed Farming Alert Deteriorating Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % of average rainfall (Dec-Jan) 68 mm >85.00mm VCI-3month(March) 25.09 35-50 State of Water Sources 3 5 SPI(Feb) -0.75 -1.0-1.0 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions 3-4 5 Milk Production 35(ltrs) >80(ltrs) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Crops area planted (%) N/A 67%of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 114 >44 Milk Consumption 35.0(ltrs) >56(ltrs) Water for Households 4.2 km 0.0-5.0 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC 11.0% <12.5(%) Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.86 1.50 1.02 Current Drought Risk Low Medium High With the ongoing short dry spell, the drought risks level remains medium indicating moderate drought. The drought risks level is expected to be on the increase due to lack of rainfall. If the expected Long rains fail by late march, the drought situation will eventually lead to an alert and worsening scenario developing. This will eventually lead to depletion of both pasture and water. The current pasture and water can sustain the current livestock population in the county for a period not exceeding 1 month. MARCH EW PHASE

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Page 1: National Drought Management Authority · 2015 7 0 68 2014 0 11.65 79.59 84 60.63 11.51 10.79 5.14 23.51 50 14.6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350) Tana River County Rainfall Distribution

DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2015

National Drought Management Authority

TANA RIVER COUNTY

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges.

There was no rainfall received within the month of March.

The vegetation conditions are gradually worsening with the overall county VCI of 25.09 falling far below the normal ranges of 35-50. Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 30.9 and 28 which is a larger reduction compared to last month. The situation is far below normal in Bura (with a VCI of 25.09) sub-county indicating severe drought on a worsening trend compared to last month.

SPI for February shows unusual fluctuations from normal range throughout the county.

Currently State of water sources is at the range of ‘3’ in the county. This is still below normal range of ‘5’ and the situation might worsen with the progressing of short dry spell.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the ongoing short dry spell, massive migrations of livestock moving towards the fall back grazing areas of Tana Delta is expected if long rains fail to perform well.

Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is fair within mixed livelihood zones but at Borderline in both Pastoral and Marginal mixed. Some livelihood zones are showing signs of stress (12

th and 13

th ribs

visible).

Utilization indicators

The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk remains Stable at 11% of the previous month of February to 11% in the month of March. The stable status of the nutritional status of children under the age of 5 Years is attributed to ongoing interventions during this dry spell period. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year.

Early Warning Phase Classification

LIVELIHOOD ZONE

EW PHASE

TRENDS

Pastoral

Alert Worsening

Marginal Mixed Farming

Alert Worsening

Mixed Farming Alert Deteriorating

Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges

% of average rainfall (Dec-Jan)

68 mm >85.00mm

VCI-3month(March) 25.09 35-50

State of Water Sources 3 5

SPI(Feb) -0.75 -1.0-1.0

Production indicators

Value Normal ranges

Livestock Migration Pattern

Normal Normal

Livestock Body Conditions

3-4 5

Milk Production 35(ltrs) >80(ltrs)

Livestock deaths (for drought)

No death No death

Crops area planted (%)

N/A 67%of LTA

Access Indicators Value Normal ranges

Terms of Trade (ToT) 114 >44

Milk Consumption 35.0(ltrs) >56(ltrs)

Water for Households 4.2 km 0.0-5.0

Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges

MUAC 11.0% <12.5(%)

Coping Strategy Index (CSI)

1.86 1.50 – 1.02

Current Drought Risk Low Medium High

With the ongoing short dry spell, the drought risks level remains medium indicating moderate drought. The drought risks level is expected to be on the increase due to lack of rainfall. If the expected Long rains fail by late march, the drought situation will eventually lead to an alert and worsening scenario developing. This will eventually lead to depletion of both pasture and water. The current pasture and water can sustain the current livestock population in the county for a period not exceeding 1 month.

MARCH EW PHASE

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BIO-PHASYCAL INDICATORS

1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT

1.1.1.Rainfall:

Amount of rainfall

The County received an average rainfall of 68 mm within the month of March (late). In

comparison to the long term rainfall average of 85.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals

a below normal trend during this period of the year.

Temporal distribution

The county is currently experiencing long rainy season as per the seasonal calendar. Showers

experienced within Tana North, Tana River and Tana Delta Sub-Counties.

Spatial distribution

Bura division recorded an average of 49.00 mm, Madogo division recorded an average of

38.00 mm, Galole division recorded an average of 100 mm, Tarassa recorded 20 mm, Bangale

division recorded 35 mm, Garsen division recorded an average of 110 mm and Kipini Division

recorded an average of 123 mm. Rainfall station data:

Fig 1 shows an example of rainfall analysis: The February rainfall amounts to only 68.00 mm against the long term rainfall average for the period amounting to 85.00 mm. This is 80% of the total average rainfall for this period of the

year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

LTA(2008-2014) 82.457 16.967 84.964 211.18 142.07 90.69 28.44 34.034 25.08 218.8 311.91 155.88

2015 7 0 68

2014 0 0 11.65 79.59 84 60.63 11.51 10.79 5.14 23.51 50 14.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Rai

nfa

ll am

ou

nt(

mm

)

Tana River County Rainfall Distribution as compared to 2008-2015 avarages

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1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT

1.2.1 The Vegetation Condition Index for the whole County is currently at 25.09 which is below the normal VCI range of 35-50. This indicates that the county is currently experiencing Moderate phase of drought within Tana River County. This is a Worsening scenario compared to last month.

The vegetation conditions worsened in Bura (Tana North) sub-county indicating a severe drought phase. Galole and Garsen sub-county’s currently phasing moderate drought respectively.

In the figure above, the VCI for Bura in March is currently at 17.41, compared to last months of 24.79 the VCI worsened. This indicates severe drought within Bura and Tana North as a whole.

In the figure above, the VCI for Galole is currently at 30.92 compared to last month’s VCI of 41.32, the VCI worsened in The month of March .This indicates Moderate drought phase within Galole .

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In the figure above, the VCI for Garsen is currently at 27.95 compared to last month’s VCI of 39.51, the VCI worsened In the month of March .This indicates Moderate drought phase within Galole trending towards Moderate drought.

1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions)

Quality

The pasture and browse condition is currently fair in the mixed livelihood zones. However,

pasture condition is poor in most parts of the pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones. This

is expected to worsen as short dry spell progresses. Current forage is estimated to last for less

than one month. With the ongoing Short dry spell, most herds have migrated towards the delta and

neighbouring counties in search of water and pasture.

Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County is currently below normal. In comparison to

the month of February, the quantity of pasture and browse within the County has decreased and

this is attributed to ongoing dry spell that has hindered regeneration of pasture. The overall

conditions are reflecting worsening scenario and may sustain for the next half a month if the

present conditions prevails.

1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

1.3.1. Water Resource

With the onset of short dry season, water levels have tremendously reduced in water reservoirs.

Currently the available water can hardly last more than half a month. Water stress is currently high

in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihoods. Most of the catchment pools/natural ponds have dried

up while the volumes in the pans/dams have decreased due to dry spell. Most households within

Tana North rely on Canals within the Bura area and water trucking supported by County

Government.

1.3.2. Household access to Water

Most of the communities within the Marginal mixed livelihood zones and the Mixed farming

livelihood zones depend on natural rivers for both domestic and livestock consumption.

Communities within the pastoral livelihood depend on pans and dams for both domestic and

livestock consumption. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the

month of March was 4.14 kilometres. In comparison to the month of February where distances

covered from the households to the main water sources was 4.14 Kilometres, the distances

increased. This is attributed to the ongoing dry spell. Households within Mixed livelihood zones

takes an average of 1hrs to water points compared to households within Marginal mixed

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livelihood zones year, the current distances are normal. Communities within the Pastoral and

Marginal mixed livelihood zones are covering longer distances in search of water.

1.3.3. Livestock access to water

The average distances covered by livestock from the grazing areas to main water sources in the

month of March were 10.00 kilometres. In comparison to the month of February where the

livestock covered 8.10 kilometres, the distances covered by the livestock in the month of February

have increased. The increase in distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to main water

sources is attributed to the onset of dry spell. This has led to decrease of water levels across all

livelihood zones. The distances are above the mean at this time of the year.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS

2.1 Livestock production

2.1.1 Livestock Ownership

2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns

Livestock Sported migrating towards the delta in search of water and pasture. These movements

have increased tension between the Farmers and the Pastoralists over pasture. In Tana North area

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec

mean 5.0 6.2 6.6 5.8 6.1 6.8 8.1 9.5 9.6 9.3 5.7 4.1

2015 7.9 8.1 10.0

max 5.9 7.6 8.3 8.0 7.0 9.0 10.0 10.5 11.3 11.4 7.0 5.0

min 4.0 5.0 5.5 3.5 4.2 4.5 5.5 8.4 7.0 6.9 5.0 3.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Dis

tan

ces

in K

ilom

ete

rs

Tana River County distance to gracing as compared to 2012-2013 averages

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of Sabukiya there is already conflict over dwindling resources and migrants have been forced out

to look for alternative source of water and pasture.

Most livestock are currently concentrated in areas where previously downpours were enhanced

during the October– December short rains. Some of the livestock have moved in Tana Delta from

within the Tana North and Galole (Bangale to bura, hirimani) while others have crossed in from

the neighbouring counties of Garissa, Ijara and Fafi.

External movement of livestock has been reported in Bangale which is currently faced with high

concentration of livestock at water points. Livestock are now moving towards areas that received

good rains during the Short rains Season.

2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition

Livestock body conditions are generally at Borderline with a score of 4 and some areas have

started showing signs of stress more so within the Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones.

This is attributed to ongoing dry spell which has led to depletion of available pasture and browse.

Therefore livestock are walking long distances in search of these resources. With the ongoing dry

spell this is expected to change for the worse. The 12th

and 13th

ribs visible in some areas and can

be seen from a distance.

BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE

Emaciated, little muscle left 1 Emergency

Very thin no fat, bones visible 2

Thin fore ribs visible 3 Alert Worsening/Alarm

Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th & 13th ribs visible 4 Alert

Moderate. neither fat nor thin 5 Normal/Alert

Good smooth appearance 6

Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head 7 Normal

Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible 8

Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 9

2.1.4 Livestock Diseases

No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP, FMD outbreak reported in

Tana Delta more so in areas like Assa and Kone which were not covered during the previous

vaccination exercise by Ministry of Livestock and NDMA,Trypanosomiasis and worms also

remained endemic across the livelihood zones. The areas affected are Garsen,Assa,Nanighi and

Kone.

2.1.5 Milk Production

On average the milk produced per household within Tana River County was 35 litres in the month

of March 2015.There is a decrease in production compared to last month. In comparison to the

long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of 61 litres. This decrease is

attributed to the onset of dry spell.

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2.1.6 Livestock deaths

No major livestock deaths reported in the month of March.

2.2 Rain fed Crop Production

2.2.1 Date of Planting and Area planted

Land preparations currently going on in anticipation of long rains expected to start by late March.

Not much area were planted as most farmers within Tana Delta did not expect much rainfall

during the short rains. Most areas already planted were within Tana Delta, Bura and Hola

irrigation Schemes. Weeding currently going on at both Hola and Bura irrigation schemes after the

previous harvests.

During the previous short rains season, the area planted was 1,575 Hectares compared to long

term average of 2,351 Hectares

2.2.2 Stage and Condition of food Crops

The currently ongoing activity is weeding only at the irrigation schemes (Bura and Hola).

Currently crops are at early stage. With the onset of dry spell only small scale farmers a long river

Tana are practising irrigation farming and some have already planted both maize and water

melons at small scale.

2.2.3 Harvest

Maize crops and Mango harvests reported in Tana River and Tana Delta Sub-County by the end of

last month. Reasonable Maize harvests also reported at Bura irrigation scheme in January. No

much harvests have been reported in mixed and marginal mixed zones. Farmers harvested their

crops as the short rains season came to an end but No outstanding harvests were reported during

this period.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec

2015 45.00 42.00 35.00

Max 193.00 140.00 111.00 220.00 307.00 409.00 200.00 180.00 130.00 64.18 83.15 91.61

Min 41.38 34.50 33.25 40.00 41.25 41.00 39.25 27.50 27.38 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mean 80.15 68.40 61.30 75.12 90.14 102.80 71.43 64.69 54.11 35.60 39.61 50.56

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

milk

pro

du

ctio

n in

litr

es

Tana River County Milk production as compared with 2012-2014 averages

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8

ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices

3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade

3.1.2 Cattle Prices

The average price of a mature 3 year old bull in the month of March 2015 was Kshs.25, 125. In

comparison to the month of February 2015, where the price of a 3 year old mature bull was

Kshs.26, 125, the price in March has decreased. The decrease in the cattle prices is attributed to

market dynamics. The current cattle price of Kshs.25, 125 is above average price at this period of

the year as shown on the graph below of average cattle prices.

Source: NDMA N=450 Household

3.1.3 .Small Ruminants Prices 3.1.3.1. Goat Prices

The average price of a medium size goat in the month of March was Kshs.3, 523. In comparison

to the month of February, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.3, 461. The

prices in March have increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics.

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov Dec

2015 25,400 26,125 25,125

mean 20,760 15,292 10,281 16,315 16,067 15,659 14,835 17,015 15,201 15,485 16,054 19,396

max 23,939 23,212 31,133 25,990 33,350 25,503 24,072 29,181 26,613 23,654 24,357 35,556

min 17,508 16,019 18,625 17,213 17,000 15,200 16,760 16,817 12,383 17,447 17,700 17,544

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

pri

ces

in k

en

ya s

hill

ings

Tana River County Cattle Prices as compared to 2012-2014 averages

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9

Source: NDMA N=450 Household

3.1.4 Sheep Prices

The average price of a sheep in the month of March was Kshs.2, 750.Compared to the mean of

2012-2014, the current price is above normal at this time of the year.

Source: NDMA N=450 Household

3.1.5 Milk Prices

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec

2015 3371 3461.00 3523.00

Max 4000.00 4801.00 3543.00 3582.00 3755.84 3170.00 4859.07 3515.00 4485.98 5636.87 3870.00 3612.72

Min 2943.63 2639.00 2641.73 2783.13 3422.00 3094.77 2919.93 2923.03 2800.00 2929.60 3236.00 3296.00

Mean 3437.22 3707.29 3124.43 3169.26 3578.65 3142.22 3746.00 3257.99 3551.66 4720.82 3575.24 3431.06

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Pri

ces

of

goat

in

Ksh

s

Tana River County goat prices as compared to 2012-2013 averages

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2,913 2,798 2,750

max 2,400 2,802 2,736 2,567 2,906 2,325 2,552 2,794 2,806 2,304 3,272 3,672

min 1,997 2,129 2,137 1,912 1,948 2,165 2,290 2,205 1,525 1,756 2,090 2,130

mean 2,148 2,406 2,508 2,235 2,285 2,237 2,387 2,496 2,269 2,097 2,640 2,873

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

Pri

ice

s in

Ke

nya

Sh

illin

g

Tana River County sheep Prices as compared to 2012-2014 averages

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Currently milk is retailing at an average of Kshs.37 per litre. This is lower compared to the month

of February which recorded a price of Ksh.37.00 per litre. This is attributed to market dynamics.

3.1.6 Terms of Trade

Currently the terms of trade is 114 Kg of maize for a goat. Compare to last month, it shows an

improvement. The current terms of trade is above long term mean of 62 kgs for a goat.

3.2 Price of cereals and other food products

3.2.1 Maize

The average maize price per kilogram for the month of March was Kshs.31. In comparison to the

month of February, where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.35, the prices have

decreased by the end of March. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year,

the current maize prices are below long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 96 99 114

mean 65 67 62 66 64 60 63 63 75 79 77 74

max 114 109 95 85 85 77 83 95 109 155 131 103

min 44 40 40 35 44 36 33 38 43 38 43 52

020406080

100120140160180

term

sof

trad

e ra

tio

s

Tana River County January TOT as compared to 2012-2013 averages

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11

Source: NDMA N=450 Household

3.3 Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Food Consumption score

3.3.2 Availability of milk for household consumption

On average the milk consumed per household was 35 litres in the month of March. In comparison

to the month of February, where the average milk consumed per household was 33 litres, the milk

consumption level has increased within the month of March .With the ongoing dry spell which has

led to scarcity of water and pasture, milk consumption is expected to decrease in the next one

month. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is

40.55 litres, the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the

year.

Source: NDMA N=450 Household

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 35 35 31

Max 54 46 46 52 58 51 53 53 47 45 52 46

Min 35 44 43 42 44 46 43 43 33 36 33 34

Mean 45 45 44 45 49 49 50 49 41 42 39 38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Pri

ces

of

mai

ze in

Ksh

s/K

g

Tana River County 2015 maize prices as compared to 2012-2013 averages

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec

2015 35 33.00 35.00

Max 188.2 86.68 78.65 120.1 105.5 124.0 93.75 70.07 60.62 156.9 235.4 313.8

Min 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.75 25.13 27.38

Mean 55.92 43.50 40.55 44.54 45.61 47.52 41.15 34.71 30.99 49.17 59.15 76.61

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n in

Lit

res

Milk Consumption Trend-Tana River County

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3.3.3 Availability of water for household consumption

Most of the communities within the Marginal mixed livelihood zones and the Mixed farming

livelihood zones depend on natural rivers for both domestic and livestock consumption.

Communities within the pastoral livelihood depend on pans and dams for both domestic and

livestock consumption. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in

the month of March was 3.7 kilometres. In comparison to the month of February where

distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.2 Kilometres, the

distances increased. This is attributed to the dry spell currently being experienced in the

County.

UTILISATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status

4.1.1 MUAC

The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of

February was 11%. In comparison to the month of January, where the percentage of children at

risk of malnutrition was 10.9%, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years

worsened slightly within the month of February. Compared to long term averages, the current

percentage is below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to worsen further if the

current dry spell continues to be experienced across all livelihood zones. Currently, the percentage

of children under the risk of malnutrition is higher in Marginal mixed livelihood zones.

Source: NDMA N = 2,255 Children

Health

No Major outstanding human disease reported apart from Malaria reported in most areas. There

has been an upsurge of malaria and pneumonia related ailments which are also leading in

morbidity rates.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec

2015 10.90 11.00

Max 16.17 14.90 17.38 16.71 18.53 15.57 21.15 17.53 17.50 15.38 15.17 15.30

Min 8.89 9.61 10.29 9.40 10.22 9.00 9.20 9.86 11.45 10.17 9.90 7.93

Mean 12.21 12.83 12.42 12.30 12.39 12.30 12.87 13.13 12.97 12.77 11.90 11.60

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

mu

ac<

13

5m

m%

Child Nutrition Status-Tana River County

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4.2 Coping Strategy

Provision of relief food and supplementary feeding for the vulnerable groups of the communities in the divisions most affected remained the top most coping strategy.

Food ration (for approximately 80% of the population) was being practiced across most households in all the zones.

Majority of households resorted to food acquisition by credit and to a larger extent aid from relatives and friends

Current Interventions and Recommendations

5.1 Non-food interventions.

Construction of Shallow wells in Garsen division, Construction of Schools,Construction of

fodder Warehouse by UNDP, Green house projects by UNDP, Nutritional Projects by

German Agro Action

Establishment of small scale irrigation projects and group demonstration farms by Water

Irrigation and drainage, MOA,UNDP and other partners like German Agro-Action.

Water harvesting, dry land farming,small scale irrigation and range rehabilitation initiatives

through Food for Assets initiatives, NALEP, Kenya Dry Land Development Program

(KDLDP), MOLD, MDNK&OAL,NDMA.

Mother to mother support groups programme and baby friendly hospital initiatives by MOH,

UNICEF, IMC.

Security surveillance, peace building, conflict resolution and management initiatives by the

OOP, KRC, UNDP Peace Committees.

Vaccination against FMD and CC

Integrated outreach activities by MOH, IMC and UNICEF.

Coordination of ongoing activities by NDMA.

5.2. Food Aid

SFP/OTP with FFA/GFD linkage being undertaken by GOK, MOH, IMC UNICEF in all

operational health facilities across the County

RED CROSS-FFA-targeting 21,939 people within Tana River, Tana Delta and Tana

North.PRRO/Food for Assets - The PRRO beneficiary target for the county is 50,800 out of

whom 45,900 households will be under FFA while GFD is 4,900. FFA activities include

irrigation for crop production, range reseeding and rehabilitation, tree planting and

construction of water pans.

Some public primary schools and an equivalent number of ECD centres are under regular

School Meals Program - current primary enrolment stands at 59,419 pupils.

Food aid in terms of cereals, pulses and oil for the general public targeting people affected

by the drought by GOK.

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Emerging Issues 6.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

Tensions among locals of Tana Delta have been suppressed by presence of military officers. This

has been quelled by recent attacks in Lamu, Mpeketoni and Gamba. These has resulted to

outwards human migrations. Security has been beeped up since then in the county to curb such

incidences in Tana River. Tension is still high in the County over terror attacks.

During the month of March,security tension has continued to be experienced between pastoralists

and farmers over grazing resources due to migrations towards the Tana Delta grazing grounds.

Human/wildlife conflicts in terms of crop destruction, livestock predation and human attacks

reported across the livelihoods zones.

Tension over resources have also been reported in Kibusu area of Tana North.

6.2 Migration

Most livestock are within the traditional grazing grounds of Tana Delta and Tana River. Out-

migration of livestock have been sported in Bangale towards Ukambani. Massive migrations have

been spotted in Kipini towards Garsen 6.3 Food Security Prognosis

The ongoing dry spell has affected all the livelihood zones and this has caused adverse effect

food security situation across board. With depletion of pasture and water due to lack of rainfall,

households are running out of food stocks and the prices of essential commodities have increased,

making them in accessible to most households. The long dry spell further aggravated the situation

thus undermining the production systems to the extent of threatening the food security which has

remained at the borderline.

The food security situation in the marginal mixed farming and pastoral zones is worse compared

to mixed farming zones.

7.0.Recommendations for Action

Recommendations to County Steering Group/Kenya Food Security Meeting.

Enhance food distribution in areas affected by drought.

Action:CountyGovernment:CSG/Partners

Explore sustainable measures to overcome incidences of human/wildlife conflicts which

have become a food insecurity threat across the livelihood zones.

Action: KWS/CSG/Partners/Communities.

Disease surveillance within the areas affected by drought and the continuation of malaria

control initiatives to undermine the prevalence rates.

Action: MOH/CSG/Partners/Communities.

Enhance support to small scale irrigation activities through provision of water pumps and

restocking of vulnerable families to improve food security at household level.

Action: DAO/MDNK&OAL/CSG/Partners/Community

Continue with malaria control initiatives to undermine the prevalence rates.

Action: MOH/CSG/Partners/Communities.

enhance access to water resource during the drought period for both domestic and household

use.

Action:GOK-CountyCommisioner/Ministry of Water.

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Rehabilitation of shallow wells and boreholes, Construction of pans and major dams along

the laghas.Action:CSG,Ministry of Water and Other Partners

The need to activate Contigency plans as per the drought phace to help mitigate effects of

drought in affected areas of Tana North and Galole:Action-NDMA