NCHRP20-83(6)National Cooperative Highway Research Program

Impacts 2050NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand

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End of the Car Culture?

The total number of miles driven in the US peaked in 2006 at 2.647 trillion. In 2011, the total number of miles driven was 5% lower. Miles driven per person and per vehicle peaked in 2004, and by 2011 had dropped by nearly 9% and 5%, respectively. (UMTRI-2013-20 July 2013)

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Long-Range Planning

As models are run further into future, precision becomes challenging

Time

Uncertainty in exogenous inputs

Uncertainty in model relationships

Variety of relationships that could be important

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Socio-Demographic Trends

Driving Uncertainty

1. The next 100 million

2. The graying of America

3. The browning of America

4. The changing American workforce

5. The blurring of city and suburb

6. Slow growth in households

7. The Generation C

8. The salience of environmental concerns

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Next 100 Million

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties US population growing at higher

rate than rest of world’s developed nations

Growth rate is slowing, but to what degree

Increase in total vehicle miles traveled (VMT)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

310,233341,387

373,504405,655

439,100

Projections of the Total Population for the U.S.: 2010-2050 (millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “The Next Four Decades, The Older Population in the U.S. 2010-2050.” Population Estimates and projections, P25-1138, May 2010, pg.1. A http///www.census.gov/prod/2010publs/p2501138.pdf

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Graying of America

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Significant increase in population

age 65+ due to Baby Boomers

How will Baby Boomers travel patterns change

Decrease in VMT per capita

– Decrease in work trips

– Decrease in transit use

– Decrease in vehicle ownership

Percent of U.S. Population by Age Group, 1990-2010

Less than 18 18 to 44 45 and older0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

26

43

31

26

40

34

24

3739

1990

2000

2010

Per

cen

t

Source: Brownell, Peter, Thomas Light, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, Nidhi Kalra, and Jan Osburg. 2013. The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the United States in 2030, Appendixes C–G. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246

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Browning of America

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties White, non-Hispanic share of

US population declining

Majority of America’s children are of color

– Increase in VMT per capita

– Increase carpooling, walking,public transit use

– Increase in vehicle age

– Travel behavior as people acculturate or are new mainstream

– Future foreign-born percent

Population by Race and Ethnicity(% of Total)

85

3.511

0.600000000000001

1960

White Hispanic Black Asian

6317

125

201147

29

13

9

2050

Note: All races are non-Hispanic; American Indian/Alaska Native not shown.

Source: Passel, J., and D’V. Cohn. February 2008. U.S. Population Projections: 2005–2050. Pew Research Center, Washington, DC. http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85/pdf; Census Bureau 2011 population estimates.

Projected

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Changing American Workforce

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Workforce is growing older and

more diverse

Labor-force participation rate declining

– Decrease in VMT per capita

– Increase in work-related VMT

– Long-term effects of recession, technology on productivity, Hispanics on labor participation rate

Civilian Labor Force by Age(Millions)

Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review, December 2013; Toossi, M. December 2013. “Labor Force Projections to 2022: The Labor Force Participation Rate Continues to Fall.” Monthly Labor Review. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/pdf/labor-force-projections-to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.pdf

16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and older0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1992

2002

2012

2022Th

ou

san

ds

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Blurring City and Suburb

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Both cities and suburbs home to

employers and residences

Inner-ring suburbs havingdensity changes similar to center city

– Decrease in VMT per capita

– Increase in non-motorized trips

– Increase in transit trips

– Long-term demand forsuburban urbanity

Map by Zara Matheson, Martin Prosperity Institute

Data Source: http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/1128_walkableurbanisim_leinberger.aspx

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Slow Growth in Households

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Marriage rates are declining,

depressing household formation and households with children

Increasing numbers of Americans are living in someone else’s home

Influence of economic recession and Millennial lifestage

Decrease in VMT per capita

– Decrease in auto ownership

– Increase in car pooling

– Increase in transit use

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Generation C

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Demand for connected devices

Gen C = hyperlinked

Super-Cs spent entire lives with digital devices

– Decrease in VMT per capita

– Decrease in auto ownership

– What will be transportationneeds and expectations of Super-Cs?

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Salience of Environment

Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties Stronger sense of concern for

environment among Millennials than other generations

Influence of Millennial’s lifestage

Decrease in VMT per capita

– Decrease in auto ownership

– Increase non-motorized mode use

– Increase in transit use

Trends in Per-Capita Vehicle-Miles Traveled and Real Gross Domestic Product

Vehicle-miles traveled: see note 2; population statistics: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Population Estimates, downloaded from www.census.gov/ popest/data/historical/index.html (for 1970-2011), and U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States,2003, Table HS-1 (1936-1969); gross domestic product (chained 2005 dollars): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,Current-Dollar and “Real” Gross Domestic Product (Excel spreadsheet), 29 November 2012.

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What is the Impact…

Conflicting

Evolving

Incomplete

…of these Trends on Future Travel Demand?

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Our Approach: Impacts 2050

Tool for applying scenario approach for handling uncertainty– 4 Scenarios for visioning the future

– System dynamics model that represents links between population, land use, employment, and travel behavior

Enables users to:– Examine socio-demographic trends and impact on travel demand

– Be in position to account for these trends in forecasts and plans

– Examine policy or other interventions that might offset trends

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Momentum State of the

country in 2050 is recognizable to

any planner who had worked in

2010.

Tech TriumphsBy 2050,

technological innovations have changed how we travel, connect our world, and

reduce our carbon footprint.

Global ChaosThe world is a more difficult place to live in

2050 with growing financial

instability, and insecurity over food, jobs, oil.

Gentle Footprint

Recovering from droughts and

superstorms , the US has taken

significant and serious action to mitigate global climate change.

Impacts 2050: 4 Scenarios

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Impacts 2050: System Dynamics Model

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User-Friendly Spreadsheet Model

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Impacts 2050: Scenario Worksheets

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Momentum Scenario: Atlanta

Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population 4,247,982 5,615,248 6,865,803 8,097723 9,319,548 10,562,745

Population by Age Group

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 20480

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Age 0-15

Age 16-29

Age 30-44

Age 45-59

Age 60-74

Age 75+up

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Momentum Scenario: Atlanta

Daily Work Trips by Mode

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 20480

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

CarDriverWorkTrips

CarPassengerWorkTrips

TransitWorkTrips

WalkBikeWorkTrips

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Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta

Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population 4,247,982 5,615,248 6,667,274 7,517,999 8,222.798 8,711,951

Population by Age Group

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 20480

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Age 0-15

Age 16-29

Age 30-44

Age 45-59

Age 60-74

Age 75+up

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Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta

Daily Work Trips by Mode

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 20480

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

CarDriverWorkTrips

CarPassenger-WorkTrips

TransitWorkTrips

WalkBikeWorkTrips

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Enhanced Planning Approach

Socio-Demographic

TrendsWill surely impact travel demand

over the next 50 years.

4 Scenarios

Applied in a systems approach to test out socio-demographic shifts

and explore what if situations

Better Insights

New and Quick insights on future reality

Future Socio-Demographic Uncertainties

Impacts 2050Tool Better Decisions

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Doing Better Long-Range Planning

Study products prompt change in thinking

Output is less important than process of interacting with model

Future reality is better understood by exploring multiple plausible future scenarios

Shift to thinking strategically which is more aligned with 21st century types of problems and environments

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Full Report (NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—

The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand)

Research Brief

Impacts 2050 Tool

Impacts 2050 User Guide

How to Obtain Research Products