National and Regional Programs to Reduce Ozone Transport

Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee

April 27, 2005

• Background

• Need for Multipollutant Controls

• Approaches

• Comparison of proposals

• Timeline for reductions

Outline

• EPA adopts Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).

• Congressional and State legislative initiatives have stalled.

• OTC developing regional strategy (CAIR Plus).

Background

Need for Multipollutant Controls

• Large portions of the eastern US designated non-attainment for 8-hour ozone and fine particulate standards

• For many regions, transport of NOx and sulfur dioxide (SO2) plays a large role in non-attainment

• States need assistance to further reduce transport, and passage of multipollutant legislation is uncertain

Regional solutions required to reach attainment.

8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas in the United States

Source: U.S. EPA

Clean Air Interstate Rule

2-step regulatory approach reduces NOx and SO2 in 2009/2010, again in 2015

2-step regulatory approach reduces NOx and SO2 in 2009/2010, again in 2015

States submit SIPs outlining compliance method within 18 months of final rule

States submit SIPs outlining compliance method within 18 months of final rule

Cap and trade implementation recommended but not required. States may issue permits.

Cap and trade implementation recommended but not required. States may issue permits.

Discourages states from seeking additional federal help with transport relief

Discourages states from seeking additional federal help with transport relief

Ozone Transport Commission Proposal

Proposes NOx and SO2 reductions believed to be consistent with attainment of upcoming 8-hour and PM 2.5 standards

Proposes NOx and SO2 reductions believed to be consistent with attainment of upcoming 8-hour and PM 2.5 standards

Reductions are larger and occur earlier than in other proposals

Reductions are larger and occur earlier than in other proposals

Supports cap and trade programSupports cap and trade program

Encourages addition of large industrial boilers to program

Encourages addition of large industrial boilers to program

Major Differences

Timing of Reductions

Size of Reductions Geographic scope

Pollutants Addressed

Summary of Pollutants Addressed

NOx SO2 Hg CO2

CAIR*

OTC

Yes Yes No No

Controls

Yes Yes Yes No

* EPA has issued a separate Mercury Rule.

Geographic Scope

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR): 28 states

Ozone Transport Commission Strategy: National

OTC Region = 13 States.

OTC Proposed Cap = National.

Comparison of Benefits

Summary of Benefits

NOx Emission Caps

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

Year

NO

x E

mis

sio

ns

Cap

(m

illi

on

to

ns) Clean Air Interstate

Rule (CAIR)

Ozone TransportCommission (OTC)

Note: OTC = National Cap. CAIR = 28 States.

Summary of Benefits

SO2 Emission Caps

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

Year

SO

2 E

mis

sio

n C

ap (

mill

ion

to

ns)

Clean Air Interstate Rule(CAIR)

Ozone TransportCommission (OTC)

Note: OTC = National Cap. CAIR = 28 States.

Ozone and Fine Particle Nonattainment Areas (April 2005)

Projected Nonattainment Areas in 2010 after Reductionsfrom CAIR and Existing Clean Air Act Programs

Projections concerning future levels of air pollution in specific geographic locations were estimated using the best scientific models available. They are estimations, however, and should be characterized as such in any description. Actual results may vary significantly if any of the factors that influence air quality differ from the assumed values used in the projections shown here.

Ozone and Particle Pollution: CAIR, together with other Clean Air Programs, Will Bring Cleaner Air to Areas in the East - 2010

Nonattainment areas for both 8-hour ozone and fine particle pollution

Nonattainment areas for fine particle pollution only .

Nonattainment areas for 8-hour ozone pollution only

104 ozone nonattainment areas (408counties)

36 PM2.5

nonattainment areas with 195 counties

14 ozone nonattainment areas 19 PM2.5 nonattainment areas

Source: EPA OAQPS.

Ozone and Fine Particle Nonattainment Areas (April 2005)

Projected Nonattainment Areas in 2015 after Reductionsfrom CAIR and Existing Clean Air Act Programs

Projections concerning future levels of air pollution in specific geographic locations were estimated using the best scientific models available. They are estimations, however, and should be characterized as such in any description. Actual results may vary significantly if any of the factors that influence air quality differ from the assumed values used in the projections shown here.

Ozone and Particle Pollution: CAIR, together with other Clean Air Programs, Will Bring Cleaner Air to Areas in the East - 2015

Nonattainment areas for both 8-hour ozone and fine particle pollution

Nonattainment areas for fine particle pollution only

Nonattainment areas for 8-hour ozone pollution only

5 ozone nonattainment areas

14 PM2.5 nonattainment areas

104 ozone nonattainment areas (408counties)

36 PM2.5

nonattainment areas with 195 counties

Source: EPA OAQPS.

Timeline for Reductions

2012201220082008 20182018 2019 2019 2007200720042004 20102010 20132013 20152015

Reduction Timeline

8-hour nonattainment designations

8-hour nonattainment designations

Moderate area attainment date

Moderate area attainment date

Serious area attainment date

Serious area attainment date

Severe area attainment date

Severe area attainment date

8-hour SIPs due8-hour SIPs due

CAIR Phase I

SO2 Reductions CAIR Phase II

Reductions

CAIR=Clean Air Interstate RuleOTC=Ozone Transport Commission Proposal

OTC Phase II Reductions

OTC Phase I Reductions

20092009

CAIR Phase I

NOx Reductions

For more information

Websites• http://www.epa.gov/air/interstateairqualit

y/index.html

• http://www.epa.gov/mercury/actions.htm