naic cipr - census bureau projections ortman...6/10/2015 5 2014 national projections second series...
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Is Demography Destiny?Population Projections Provide a Sneak
Peak into How the Future May Unfold
Presentation for the CIPR Symposium: Boom or Bust? A Look into Retirement Issues Facing Baby Boomers
June 15, 2015
Jennifer M. Ortman and Christopher Dick
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and toencourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed on statistical,methodological, or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of theU.S. Census Bureau.
Overview Background What? Why? How?
Results from the 2014 National Projections An Aging Nation
How to access projections data
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What data do we produce?
National Projections Produced every 2 years this
decade (2012, 2014, etc.) Demographic detail includes
age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
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What data do we produce?
National Projections Produced every 2 years this
decade (2012, 2014, etc.) Demographic detail includes
age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Haven’t released full detail
state projections since 1997 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
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Why do we produce projections?
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging: older population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics: working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute: projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning, by businesses,
and for academic research
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How are estimates different from projections?
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date, estimates are the preferred data.
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Making National Projections
Starting Population
Birthsand
Immigrants
Deathsand
EmigrantsFuture
Population
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Aging
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2014 National Projections Second series of projections based on the
2010 Census Projections of the U.S. population by age, sex,
race, Hispanic origin, and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
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276.4 286.6 302.5 315.1 326.0 338.6
42.347.9
56.965.1
72.378.2
13.3 14.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 18.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
United States Population by Nativity: 2014 to 2060(Population in millions)
318.7334.5
359.4380.2
398.3416.8
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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 30
102030405060708090
100+
201475 million in baby boom ages(24% of the total population)
Male Female
Baby Boom Ages
3 2 1 0 1 2 30
102030405060708090
100+
203061 million in baby boom ages(17% of the total population)
Male Female
Baby Boom Ages
3 2 1 0 1 2 30
102030405060708090
100+
20603 million in baby boom ages
(0.6% of the total population)
Male Female
Baby Boom Ages
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 30
102030405060708090
100+
196573 million in baby boom ages (37% of the total population)
FemaleMale
Baby Boom Ages
United States Population by Age and Sex: 1965 to 2060(Population in millions)
12
46
56
74
8288
98
15 1721 22 22 24
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions)Percent of total population
Population 65 and Over: 2014 to 2060
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13
108 7
6 5 5
15
39
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade: 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
14
47
53
57
33
35
30
20
12
13
2060
2030
2014
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group: 2014 to 2060(Percent of population 65 and over)
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 20600
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Projected Dependency Ratios: 2014 to 2060Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age DependencyRatio
Note: Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and over/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.Youth dependency = (Population under 18/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)/Population aged 18 to 64)*100
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3840
45
49
5356
2224
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Total population 65 and over
Percent Minority: 2014 to 2060Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population.
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Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries: 2014 and 2050
Developed Countries
Largest Developing Countries 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
40
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India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
2050
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
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India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
2014
Accessing U.S. Projections Datahttp://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html
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Accessing International Projections Datahttp://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/
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Contact InformationJennifer Ortman
[email protected] Dick
Projections Branch(301) 763-2428
http://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html
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