The Sunbelt =

High Growth!

World (Now)

6,571,046,993

US (Now)

301,005,394

Georgia Estimate Census projections for July 2006 9,028,029

Georgia (July 2006) Actual Estimate 9,363,941

Change since 2000 1,177,488

Georgia in 2030 (Cen Projection) 12,017,838

Net Change 2,653,897

Net Change if 90% of real growth continues?

13,602,898

Additional people by 2030 ( Maybe ??) 4,238,957

Where Are We Headed? Where Are We Headed?

PopulationPopulation Growth Growth

*Atlanta MSA was 12th in population in 1990; 11th in 2000; 9th in 2003; 4th in population increase, 1990-2000, and 1st in population increase between 2000 and 2006.

  2000 - 2006 2006 2000

MSA # Rank* # Rank # Rank

Atlanta 890,242 1 5,138,223 9 4,247,981 11

Dallas 842,423 2 6,003,967 4 5,161,544 5

Houston 824,542 3 5,539,949 6 4,715,407 8

Los Angeles 584,502 6 12,950,129 212,365,62

7 2

New York 495,534 7 18,818,536 118,323,00

2 1

Washington DC 494,217 8 5,290,400 8 4,796,183 7

Miami 456,293 9 5,463,857 7 5,007,564 6

Chicago 407,432 10 9,505,748 3 9,098,316 3

Philadelphia 139,595 26 5,826,742 5 5,687,147 4

Detroit 16,409 149 4,468,966 10 4,452,557 9

MSA: Metropolitian Statistical Area (28-County Area) Source: U.S. Census

Regional Growth

Where Are We Headed? Where Are We Headed?

15.5% of all 15.5% of all births in Georgia births in Georgia in 2005 were to in 2005 were to

Hispanic mothersHispanic mothers

People Turning 65 1995-2025

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Year

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000Th

ousa

nds

Peo

ple

Tur

ning

65

in Y

ear

Age Another Way

Over 60 2000: 1 in 10 2030: 1 in 5

US Dependency Ratio: (Elderly to Workers)2010: 246 per 1,000 2030: 411 per 1,000

Georgia is the 3rd youngest state: median age 34.3 Utah (1) 28.5, Maine (50) 41.2

Demographics

Household Type 1960 2000 2040

HH with Children 48% 33% 27%

Single-Person HH 13% 26% 30%

Figures for U.S.Source: Census for 1960 and 2000, 2040 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).

More Non-“Traditional” Households

Retired Location Preference

In a cityIn a city 14%14%

In a suburb close to a cityIn a suburb close to a city 37%37%

In a suburb away from a cityIn a suburb away from a city 19%19%

In a rural communityIn a rural community 30%30%

SourceSource: National Association of Realtors & Smart Growth America, : National Association of Realtors & Smart Growth America, American Preference Survey 2004.American Preference Survey 2004.

Neighborhood Feature Preferences

Tra

nsit

Ac

ces

s

Scho

ol

Wa

lk

Sto

res,

Ea

tin

g

Sid

ew

alk

s

Hous

ing

Mix

Eth

nic

Mix

Incom

e M

ix

Lif

e-C

yc

le M

ix

Neighborhood Feature

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Perc

ent

Source: National Association of Realtors & Smart Growth America, American Preference Survey 2004.

Life-Span of Building Space

RetailOffice

WarehouseEducation

Nonres.Homes

0

50

100

150

200

Ye

ars

In 1991, a group of leading architects and planners drafted a set of planning principles outlining an alternative development model for American cities and counties.

These principles, named for the “Ahwahnee” hotel in Yosemite, California where they where originally presented, have been considered one of the first articulations of "smart growth."

Origin of Smart GrowthOrigin of Smart GrowthOrigin of Smart GrowthOrigin of Smart Growth

Smart Growth America, a national organization, defines smart growth according to its outcomes which mirror the basic values of Americans. Smart growth achieves six goals:

1. Neighborhood livability2. Better access, less traffic 3. Thriving cities, suburbs and towns 4. Shared benefits5. Lowers costs, lower taxes 6. Keeping open space open

Definitions of Smart GrowthDefinitions of Smart GrowthDefinitions of Smart GrowthDefinitions of Smart Growth

1. Mix land uses.2. Compact building design3. Housing choices4. Walkable neighborhoods5. Communities with sense of places6. Open space and environmental protection7. Direct development to existing

communities8. Transportation choices9. Development decisions predictable and

cost effective10. Stakeholder collaboration

Smart Growth Network PrinciplesSmart Growth Network PrinciplesSmart Growth Network PrinciplesSmart Growth Network Principles

UGPMUGPM

Regional Issues

Regional Best PracticesRegional Best Practices

• VisioningVisioning• Transportation fundingTransportation funding• Training/educationTraining/education

What else is need from a law perspective?What else is need from a law perspective?

• Georgia Planning AssociationGeorgia Planning Association

www.georgiaplanning.org• Smart Growth NetworkSmart Growth Network

www.smartgrowth.org• ARC ProgramsARC Programs

www.atlantaregional.com

Resources