nahb national survey key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted may 3-9,...
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NAHBNational Survey
Key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011.
#11190
Methodology
METHODOLOGY
3NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
On behalf of the National Association of Home Builders, Public Opinion Strategies and Lake Research Partners conducted a national survey of N=2,000 likely 2012 voters. The survey was conducted May 3-9, 2011 and has a margin of error of +2.19%.
Due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among both homeowners and renters. Fully 73% of voters in our survey identified themselves as homeowners, which is slightly higher than recent public polls among adults. However, this is not surprising as voters tend to be a higher educated, higher income audience than the adult population.
In addition, due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among key political “swing areas.” Throughout this presentation, we have broken out the data by seats held by House Republican freshmen, Charlie Cook’s Swing House & Senate seats, as well as among Washington Post Reporter Chris Cillizza’s Presidential Swing states.
METHODOLOGY
4NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
House GOP Freshman Seats:Alabama, 2ndAlabama, 5thArizona, 1stArizona, 3rdArizona, 5thArkansas, 1stArkansas, 2ndArkansas, 3rdCalifornia, 19thColorado, 3rdColorado, 4thFlorida, 12thFlorida, 22ndFlorida, 24thFlorida, 25thFlorida, 2ndFlorida, 5thFlorida, 8thGeorgia, 7thGeorgia, 8thIdaho, 1stIllinois, 10thIllinois, 11thIllinois, 14thIllinois, 17thIllinois, 8thIndiana, 4thIndiana, 8thIndiana, 9th
Ohio, 1stOhio, 6thOklahoma, 5thPennsylvania, 10thPennsylvania, 11thPennsylvania, 3rdPennsylvania, 7thPennsylvania, 8thSouth Carolina, 1stSouth Carolina, 3rdSouth Carolina, 4thSouth Carolina, 5thSouth Dakota, At-LargeTennessee, 3rdTennessee, 4thTennessee, 6thTennessee, 8thTexas, 17thTexas, 23rdTexas, 27thVirginia, 2ndVirginia, 5thVirginia, 9thWashington, 3rdWest Virginia, 1stWisconsin, 7thWisconsin, 8th
Kansas, 1stKansas, 3rdKansas, 4thLouisiana, 3rdMaryland, 1stMichigan, 1stMichigan, 2ndMichigan, 3rdMichigan, 7thMinnesota, 8thMississippi, 1stMississippi, 4thMissouri, 4thMissouri, 7thNevada, 3rdNew Hampshire, 1stNew Hampshire, 2ndNew Jersey, 3rdNew Mexico, 2ndNew York, 13thNew York, 19thNew York, 20thNew York, 24thNew York, 25thNorth Carolina, 2ndNorth Dakota, At-LargeOhio, 15thOhio, 16thOhio, 18th
METHODOLOGY
5NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Cook Report House and Senate Swing Seats:U.S. House U.S. Senate
New Mexico
North Dakota
West Virginia
Missouri
New England
Montana
Virginia
Massachusetts
Nevada
Ohio
Florida
Arkansas, 2nd
California, 11th
California, 20th
California, 26th
California, 3rd
Connecticut, 5th
Florida, 22nd
Georgia, 12th Georgia, 2nd Illinois, 10th
Illinois, 13th
Illinois, 17th
Illinois, 8th
Indiana, 2nd
Iowa, 3rd Iowa, 4th
Michigan, 9th Minnesota, 8th
Missouri, 3rd
Montana, At LargeNevada, 2nd
New Hampshire, 1st
New Hampshire, 2nd
New Jersey, 3rd
New Jersey, 7th
New York, 23rd New York, 25th
North Carolina, 11th North Carolina, 13th North Carolina, 2nd
North Carolina, 7th North Carolina, 8th Ohio, 13th Ohio, 6th
Pennsylvania, 11th
Pennsylvania, 12th
Pennsylvania, 4th Pennsylvania, 7th
Pennsylvania, 8th
Texas, 23rd
Texas, 27th
Utah, 2nd Washington, 8th
Wisconsin, 7th
METHODOLOGY
6NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Chris Cillizza’s Presidential Swing States:
ColoradoFloridaIndianaIowaMinnesotaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioVirginia
Swing States
The Value of Home
Ownership
Despite the housing crisis, ups and downs in the market and the decline in the value of homes, owning a home is still very much a part of the American dream.
Even in this weak housing market that some may describe as risky, those Americans who do not currently own a home, especially those under the age of 50, overwhelmingly say they want to buy a home.
Americans consider their homes as their single best investment.
What Americans are saying is that despite the ups and downs of the housing market and the risks, home ownership is worth the risk – clear and simple.
9NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
%One of Most/Very Important
Staying out of debt or getting out of debt.
Owning your own home.
Being successful at your job.
Saving enough for retirement.
Americans believe that owning their own home is as important as being successful at their job or
being able to pay for a family member’s education.
Being able to provide your family with more than you had when you
were younger.
Being able to pay for yours or a family member's education.
10NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Which ONE of these would you say is your best investment?
Home ownership and a retirement savings program are considered by voters to be
their best investments.
Rental property
A home
A retirement savings program like an IRA or 401 (K)
A savings account
Stock market investments
Ownership of a business
11NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree
43% Strongly
Disagree
9% Strongly
An overwhelming number of Americans say owning a home is worth the ups and downs
of the housing market.
+52
12NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree
42%Strgly
Dis-agree
That sentiment is strong among renters and those who currently owe more than
their home is worth.
+64 +36 +46+53 +31
AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree
50%Strgly
39%Strgly
40%Strgly
29%Strgly
13%Strgly
13%Strgly
15%Strgly
By Residence TypeAmong Those Who Owe More On Their Home
Than It Is Worth
13NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Agree
41%Strgly
Dis-agree
And, there is agreement across age groups.
+46 +50 +49+59 +61
AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree AgreeDis-
agree
41%Strgly
45%Strgly 42%
Strgly
50%Strgly
By Age
Attitudes of Homeowners
15NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
82% Very
Almost every homeowner is happy with their decision to own a home.
How happy would you say you are with your decision to own a home? (N=1,460)
Happy Unhappy
Happy 83%Unhappy 17%
Among Those "Under Water"
16NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
And, would you advise a member of your family or a close personal friend just starting out to buy a home in order to build long-term assets, or do you think owning a home is too risky of an investment? (N=1,460)
Yes, Would Advise to Buy No, Too Risky
Yes, Would Advise to Buy No, Too Risky
Fully 80% of homeowners would advise a close friend or family member just starting out to buy a home.
(That’s true even among those homeowners “under water” on their mortgage.)
Total and Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth
Attitudes of Non-
Homeowners
18NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Yes No
+48
Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)
Nearly three-fourths of voters who do not currently own a home say that it is a goal of
theirs to eventually buy one.
19NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)
Yes Yes Yes No NoYes Yes NoNo NoNo Yes
Younger voters (those most likely to be in the market for a home in the next few years), overwhelmingly
say buying a home is a goal of theirs.
By Age
18-54 83%-14%55+ 33%-66%
20NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Saving for a down payment and closing costs
And, which one of the following would you say is your biggest barrier to buying a home? Is it...(N=376)
The biggest barrier for those who want to own a home is money for a down payment and closing costs.
Concerns that if home prices drop, your investment could be worth less
than what you paid
Inability to get a loan
Your current debt
Job uncertainty
Your credit score
The Politics of Housing:
Encouraging Home Ownership
There is a consensus across party lines and among voters in all swing areas that it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership.
Voters’ message to Washington: Leave the mortgage interest deduction alone. By a two-to-one margin, voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to eliminate the MID.
23NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal
government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Americans across party lines believe it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide
tax incentives to encourage home ownership.
Total By Party By Tea Party Support
No NoYes Yes
24NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
By Ethnicity
Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal
government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?
This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity.
Yes No Yes No Yes No
25NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Among GOP Freshman Seats
Yes No Yes No Yes No No
And, voters in America’s key "swing areas" also agree.
Among Cook Report House
Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States
Among Cook Report Senate
Yes
Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal
government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?
The Politics of Housing:
Raising the Down Payment
Requirement
27NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Have you seen, read or heard anything about proposals being considered in Washington regarding raising down payment requirements when purchasing a home?
Yes No
Few voters have heard anything about proposals to raise the down payment requirements when buying a home.
-62
28NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
And, do you believe these proposed changes will make it easier or more difficult to buy a home?(N=188)
Easier More Difficult
38% Much More
But, fully 92% of those who have heard believe that will make it more difficult to buy a home.
-87
29NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Fav Opp
Opinions are divided on this issue; those most opposed tend to be Americans who would be in the
market to purchase a home in the future.
By Residence Type/Age
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…
Requiring that home buyers put a (minimum) of twenty percent down when they purchase a home.
-17 +13+6 -20+16 +32
Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav OppFav Opp
-0-
Total
28% Strg
29% Strg
The Politics of Housing:
The Mortgage Interest Deduction
31NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
% Strongly Oppose %Total OpposeEliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on
their tax returns.
Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over
$250,000 per year.
Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more.
Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.
Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on
their tax returns.
All proposals to change the home mortgage interest deduction are opposed by a majority of Americans.
32NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…
Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
A strong majority of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction.
Total By Party
53%Strongly 50%
Strongly
52%Strongly
58%Strongly
33NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
15% Strong
39% Strong
11% Strong
45% Strong
12% Strong
38% Strong
21% Strong
35% Strong
And, “lowering” the mortgage interest deduction is also rejected by voters across party lines.
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…
Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.
Total By Party
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
34NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
14% Strong
36% Strong
13% Strong
42% Strong
12% Strong
36% Strong
17% Strong
30% Strong
Americans also reject eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…
Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.
Total By Party
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
35NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
And, a majority oppose eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.
Total By Party
29%Strongly
28%Strongly
27%Strongly
33%Strongly
22%Strongly
23%Strongly
26%Strongly17%
Strongly
36NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
A majority even oppose “scaling back” the home mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with
large mortgages or those with higher incomes.
Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more.
Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year.
Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…
19%Strongly
30%Strongly 22%
Strongly
33%Strongly
37NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
When voters are read two opposing points of view on eliminating the home
mortgage interest deduction...Now, I’d like to read you two different opinions on eliminating the mortgage interest deduction...
Those who favor this proposal say that the benefits of this deduction go disproportionately to high income Americans
and that eliminating it will help reduce the deficit by increasing government revenue.
Opponents of this proposal say that the mortgage interest deduction helps families achieve home ownership, which
helps owners build assets for the middle class and provides stability to families.
…while…
38NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Do you favor or oppose a proposal to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?
Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
Nearly two-thirds of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, with strong
intensity in opposition.
Total By Party
44%Strongly
13%Strongly
39NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
33% Much
A majority of voters across party lines say they would be less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted
to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction.
Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?
More Less More Less More Less More Less
Total By Party By Tea Party Support
Less LessMore More
40NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
And, voters in America’s “swing seats” would be less likely to support a candidate who wanted to
eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to
eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?
Among GOP Freshman Seats
Among Cook Report House
Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States
Among Cook Report Senate
LessMore LessMore LessMore LessMore
Voter Beliefs
Owning a home is part of the American dream.
A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities.
Voters link homeownership to retirement security.
43NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
%Total Convincing
Homeownership as part of the American Dream and the housing industry's linkage to jobs resonates
strongly with voters.
A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities. Every new single-family home built creates three full-time jobs and increases the property tax
base that supports local schools. We need to strengthen the housing market to keep our local economies growing and
creating jobs.
For many people, owning a home is part of their American Dream: It creates a stronger community, a place to raise a
family, and is their most valued stable investment for their children’s college education and their own retirement and
well-being. We need to strengthen the housing market so that more Americans can achieve homeownership.
44NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Homeownership as an investment and as a middle class value also touch voters.
Home ownership is key to having a strong middle class and helping people build toward the American dream. The recent
housing crisis threatened to keep that out of reach for too many Americans. We need policies that encourage home
ownership if we want to rebuild the middle class.
Many Americans have planned their retirement by being able to live in the homes they have now paid off, and many others
plan to use their investment in their homes to live on in retirement. To help ensure secure retirement for millions,
we need to stabilize the housing market.
%Total Convincing
Bottom Line
BOTTOM LINE
46NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011
Owning a home is a core value and still part of the American dream.
Voters want the government to develop policies that will encourage growth in the housing market.
And, they do NOT want the government to make it harder for people to achieve the American dream.
#11190
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