NOV 2013

CALFIRE North Network

BY:CDR Anton Orr (USN)

Capt Ryan Colton (USMC)Capt Taylor Williams (USMC)

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Background

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• California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection• 2 regions North and South Region• 21 HQ units within all of CAL FIRE• 228 Fire Stations

• Area of Responsibility• 31 million Acres• 35 counties

• Budget • $1.05 Billion• Fire Suppression costs ~ $165 Million

• Average Yearly Responses• Wildland Fires – above 5,600• Non-Wildland Fire Emergencies – more than 350,000

Background

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Units Modeled

• Calfire Northern Region– 21 Ground and Air Bases• Air Assets - # / operational cost per hour• Air Attack (OV-10 Bronco) : 6 / $1100 • Air Tanker (S-2T): 10 / $2100 • Helicopter w/Fire Crew (UH-1H) : 6 / $1750

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Units Modeled

• Ground Assets: # / operational cost per hour: • Engines: 190 / $80• Fire Crews: 85 / $85• BullDozers: 32 / $100

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Most Likely Fire Locations

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• F1: Wildlake• F2: Redding• F3: Clearlake

Problem

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Problem StatementCalfire has an expansive area of responsibility and a

limited number of resources to deal with fires that arise within its AOR. What is the optimal way to utilize the

resources that Calfire has, minimizing the operating costs and providing the service they are charged with delivering?

Road Node Map

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Ground/Air Bases Map

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Ground Air

Complete Fire Map

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Nodes and Edges

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• Nodes (64 total):• Ground Nodes - Fire houses • Air Nodes - Fire airports • Transportation Nodes - Major intersections throughout Northern California• Fire Nodes - 3 highly probable areas within Nor Cal that will have wildfires

• Has 4 additional Fire locations within the model

• Edges (321 total)• Air movement – Air Assets travel from Air Node direct to Fire Node• Ground movement:

• Fire House Node -> Road Node (< 30 miles)• Road Node -> Road Node (transit network)• Road Node -> Fire Node (< 30 miles)

Abstract Network

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Formulation

• Multi-Commodity Flow model– Obj Function: (

– : Cost of moving commodity (k) on arc (i, j)– : Number of commodity (k) moved on arc (i,j)– : Activation cost of commodity (k) – : Number of commodity (k) assigned to fire (j)

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Measures of Effectiveness

• Primary– Cost to respond to fires

• Secondary– Number of fires Northern CAL FIRE is able to

deal with

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Model

• Cost (Initialization + Travel) – Each asset has an initialization cost (– The travel cost is variable based upon distance from home base

to fire location ()

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Model

• Capabilities– Each asset is assigned fire fighting capability based on utility

they bring to fight fires (proxy is gallons of water):• Air Tanker: 1500• Air Assault: 100• Helo: 500• Crew: 10 • Engine: 150• Dozer: 40

• Fire Demand:– Each Fire has certain amount of capability that needs to be

satisfied (demand)• All of these are uniform R.V. between 2000 and 3000 units of capability

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Model Output

Optimization Model• What is Optimal mix of commodities to utilize

and what is the min cost?

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Analysis(Optimal Output)

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Resilience Curve for Fire Costs

Cost

Number of Fires

Fir

e Su

ppre

ssio

n C

ost (

$K)

Optimal Commodity and locations for 1 FireAir node = Grass Valley1 Air Tanker

Ground Node = Nevada-Yuba Unit4 crews2 Dozers4 Engines

Optimal Solution For 7 Fires:Total Air Assets: 1 Air Attack7 Air Tankers

40 Crews14 Dozers40 Engines

Number of Fires Cost ($K)0 $ 01 $ 42.22 $ 96.03 $ 147.24 $ 193.65 $ 239.56 $ 296.37 $ 361.7

Attacks

Second Scenario • What happens when weather affects flights

ops?– How is cost affected?– How is capability affected?

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Analysis (Attack-No Air Avail)

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$400.0

Resilience for Costs w/o Air Assets

Cost

w/o Air

Number of Fires

Fir

e Su

ppre

ssio

n C

ost (

$K)

Number of Fires Cost w/o Air percentage0 $0.0 $0.0 01 $42.2 $47.1 11.5%2 $96.0 $105.0 9.4%3 $147.2 $157.5 7.0%4 $193.6 $205.5 6.2%5 $239.5 $253.1 5.7%6 $296.3 7 $361.7

Optimal solution for 1 Fire:Air Node = NAGround Node = Nevada Unit 14 Engines 2 Dozers5 Crews

Sonoma unit9 Crews

Attack

- How many major wildfires can we fight?• Increase Attack Size• Increase R.V. for Fire Demand

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Analysis (Attack- Increase Fire Demand)

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Optimal Solution for 1 Fire:

Demand: 10858 unitsSupplied: 12000 units

Optimal Solution for 4 Fires:

Demand: 49332 unitsSupplied: 30430 units

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Resilience Curve - Capability Provided/Req’d

proportion

Number of Fires

Prop

ortio

n of

Cap

abili

ty

How many more assets do I need to contain 4 Major Wildfires up to 100%- 5 AT - 5 HC - 50 Crews, Dozers, Engines

Follow on Work

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• Utility of assets incorporated into MOEs• Improve granularity of assets/transit edges

– Add additional fire fighting units

• Restrictions on mobility of air assets• Incorporate Southern Region and Reserves

– If north is exhausted how can Southern region affect the fight?

Just to Remember

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QUESTIONS?

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Sources

• http://firefighterblog.com/files/2010/07/CAL_FIRE_logo_large.jpg• http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605-powerhouse-wil

dfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhouse-firefighters_68142_600x450.jpg

• http://www.theepochtimes.com/news_images/highres/2008-7-5-california_fires_81828250.jpg ( question photo)

• http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098.html (intro photo)

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