Musings About the Media and Gun Violence

HF Guggenhein Symposium Crime in America

John Jay PanelDavid Hemenway, February 1, 2011

Summary of Academic Literature on Guns

U.S. Public woefully misinformed about most things including guns and

violence

• Most information comes from schools and media

Raised in 1950s

Ozzie and Harriet Leave It To Beaver

Naïve Ideal World:• Media conducts surveys about what public

knows• Act together to improve public knowledge

Media’s Role

• Media does not provide an epidemiologically correct view of world

• 300+ million Americans• 6+ billion people

Misperceptions Matter:• (e.g. self-fulfilling prophesies)• If people think neighborhood unsafe, no one

goes there, businesses languish, etc.

• Adolescents misperceptions about adolescent smoking, binge drinking, sex, and gun carrying

Misperceptions Matter (cont.)• Most Americans seem to believe we have

licensing and registration laws

• Given level of gun violence, these laws clearly not working

NO SUCH LA

WS E

XIST

• Designated Driver Campaign• Motor Vehicle Crash Stories

– Wear seat belts– Alcohol involved

• Gun Stories– Where did the gun come from?– What kind of world do we want to live in?

Media Can Change Attitudes

My Own Pet Peeves at Media1. Parochialism

– No one outside the US can understand US – Winning gun control argument outside US

• “Do you want to end up like the US?”

– Don’t understand what an outlier the US really is• Plus role in fueling gun violence worldwide

Homicide, Suicide, and Unintentional Gun Deaths among 5-14 year olds: The United States vs. 25 Other High Income Populous Countries, early 2003

  Mortality Rate Ratio

Homicides

Gun homicides 13.4

Non-gun homicides 1.8

Total 3.6

Suicides

Gun Suicides 8.0

Non-gun Suicides 1.2

Total 1.6

Unintentional firearm deaths 10.6

Richardson & Hemenway J Trauma 2011

Yet U.S. has average rates of all other crime victims

2. Simplistic view of the world: Black/White

a.) pro gun vs. anti-gun

Pro public health not: anti-car anti-swimming pool anti-stairs

a1.) gun rights advocates vs. …?

My Pet Peeves

2. Simplistic view of the world: Black/White (cont.)

b.) Guns everywhere vs. No guns

“Gun Control” equals banning handguns

Policy Spectrum

My Pet Peeves

c.) Criminals and Decent, Law-Abiding Citizens “Bad Guys” and “Good Guys”

In Arizona, a “good guy” with legal and easy access to all firearms

He would not have gotten access in other countries.

2. Simplistic view of the world: Black/White (cont.)My Pet Peeves

E.g. Canada LawAcquisition of a Handgun1. Firearms License 2. Proof of legitimate purpose3. Criminal background check4. Training certificate5. 2 references who sign application6. 28 day waiting period7. Handgun magazine restricted to 10 rounds

d.) Guns are only thing that matters, or guns don’t matter at all

•Urban-rural•Switzerland, Israel•Canada- Bowling for Columbine

2. Simplistic view of the world: Black/White (cont.)My Pet Peeves

e.) Gun control works perfectly or doesn’t work at all

“Germany had a school shooting, doesn’t that prove gun control is ineffective?”

My Pet Peeves2. Simplistic view of the world: Black/White (cont.)

3. Argument by Anecdote

–Washington, DC

–“My father never smoked, yet died of heart disease”

–“Japanese smoke more than US, yet have lower rates of heart disease”

My Pet Peeves

Violent Deaths High-gun States vs. Low-gun States, 2001-2004, U.S. Children (aged 5-14)

Mortality Rate Ratio

High-Gun States Low-Gun States (High Gun : Low Gun)

Total population,

5-14 Year Olds (2001-2004)

21.0 million 21.7 million

Homicides

Gun homicides

Non-gun homicides

Total

97 41 2.4

80 70 1.2

177 111 1.6

Suicides

Gun Suicides

Non-gun Suicides

Total

68 5 14.1

106 74 1.5

174 79 2.3

Unintentional firearm deaths

67 7 9.9

The 15 States with the highest average levels of household gun ownership (based on the 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System) were WY, MT, AK, SD, AR, WV, AL, ID, MS, ND, KY, WI, SC, UT, and LA. The 6 States with the lowest average gun levels were HI, MA, RI, NJ, CT, and NY.Source: WISQARS

Anecdotes vs. Studies

4. “Both Sides”

20 studies vs. 1 study

Science vs. she said/he said

My Pet Peeves

Effect of Repeals of Motorcycle Helmet Laws

HOW CAN ACADEMICS HELP MEDIA?

What we are currently doing:

1. Firearms Research Digest:– A searchable database of summaries of all

academic firearm articles

– www. firearmsresearch.org

2. Bulletins

• Comparing the Incidence of Self-Defense Gun Use and Criminal Gun Use

• Carrying Concealed Weapons (CCW) Laws: From “May Issue” to “Shall Issue”

What we are currently doing:

WHAT ELSE CAN WE DO?

“While We Were Sleeping”Success Stories in Injury Prevention

U Cal Press (2009)

David Hemenway, PhD.Harvard Injury Control Research CenterHarvard School of Public Health

Importance of Firearms Trace Data• Many gun policies focus on preventing the diversion of

guns from the legal to illegal markets.• Trace data allow monitoring of these diversions. Brief

interval (e.g., < 1 year) from retail sale to crime by non-purchaser is marker for illegal diversion.

• Report of crime gun trace data showing Milwaukee gun dealer’s contribution to crime guns led dealer to stop selling junk guns. Diversions dropped 73% (Webster, Vernick, Bulzacchelli, 2006).

• Trace data used to identify gun dealers to target for undercover stings and lawsuits which were followed by sharp reductions in guns diverted to criminals (Webster, Vernick, Bulzacchelli, Zeoli 2006).

Importance of Firearms Trace Data• Trafficking indicators negatively associated with state

policies regulating private sales and oversight of retail sellers (Webster, Vernick, Bulzacchelli, 2009)

• States with comprehensive gun sales regulations have very few in-state guns used in crime (Webster, Vernick, Hepburn, 2001).

• Absence of gun seller accountability policies associated with greater exporting of crime guns to other states (Mayors Against Illegal Guns, 2010).

• If trace data wasn’t important to industry accountability, the gun lobby wouldn’t have made hiding gun data a priority in passing the Tiahrt amendments.