murray-tuite1 winter weather demand considerations pamela murray-tuite, ph.d. october 2014 mautc...
TRANSCRIPT
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Winter Weather Demand Considerations
Pamela Murray-Tuite, Ph.D.October 2014
MAUTC Webinar
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Presentation Outline Introduction and Background Methodology Results Conclusions
Introduction and Background The 2013-2014 was particularly harsh for
the US’ east coast Snow storms and below freezing
temperatures disrupted school and employer schedules as well as road operations
The goal of this work is to examine winter weather effects on demand Better understand the complexities associated
with winter weather travel decisions
Winter Weather 3
Winter weather effects on public schoolsDate Day of the Week Closure Delayed
Dec. 9-10, 2013 Mon, Tue X
Dec. 11, 2013 Wednesday X
Jan. 7, 2014 Tuesday X
Jan. 8, 2014 Wednesday X
Jan. 10, 2014 Friday X
Jan. 21-23, 2014 Tue-Thu X
Jan. 24, 2014 Friday X
Jan. 29, 2014 Wednesday X
Feb. 5, 2014 Wednesday X
Feb. 13-14, 2014 Thu, Fri X
Feb. 18, 2014 Tuesday X
Mar. 3-4, 2014 Mon, Tue X
Mar. 5, 2014 Wednesday X
Mar. 17, 2014 Monday X
Mar. 18, 2014 Tuesday X
Total days 11 94
Poll question Winter weather affected my travel this
past winter Yes No
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Methodology A survey was conducted in the Northern Virginia
portion of Washington D.C. Metropolitan area to investigate traveler changes 418 responses Asked about what commuters would do
If winter weather conditions began or were forecasted to begin while they were at work
If winter weather conditions began while they were at home
Asked all respondents whether they would make changes for other types of trips
Asked about the importance of various factorsWinter Weather 10
Methodology Logit models were used to identify factors
statistically associated with making a particular travel decision
Variables individually significant at the p=0.25 level were considered in the multi-variable models
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Commuters responded differently based on the type of weather
Weather Mean N
Snow 1 if respondent would change transportation plans if snow begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.53 293
Freezing Rain
1 if respondent would change transportation plans if freezing rain begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.52 293
Heavy Rain
1 if respondent would change transportation plans if heavy rain begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.15 293
Below Freezing
1 if respondent would change transportation plans if below freezing temperatures begin at work; 0 otherwise 0.17 293
Icy Roads
1 if respondent would change transportation plans if icy road conditions begin at work; 0 otherwise 0.71 293
12
Weather begins while at work
Commute changes included …Decision Mean N
Cancel a Trip
1 if a trip would be canceled if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.72 269
Delay a Trip1 if a trip would be delayed if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.71 260
Leave Work Early
1 if respondent would leave work early if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.67 265
Add Trips1 if respondent would add trips to the return commute if winter weather begins at work; 0 o.w. 0.43 271
Change Destination
1 if respondent would change the destination of a trip if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.49 273
Change Route
1 if respondent would change routes if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.62 277
Use More Highways
1 if respondent would use more highways if winter weather begins at work; 0 otherwise 0.58 255
Change Mode
1 if respondent would use change transportation modes if winter weather begins at work; 0 o.w. 0.11 278
13
Weather begins while at work
Cancelling a trip
Winter Weather 14
Weather begins while at work
Variable Est.
Chi Sq Odds Ratio
Intercept 1.380 8.92***
Hispanic
-1.847 6.92***
0.158Telework OptWW
1.267 6.80***
3.549Child Travel Resp
-1.077 4.43**
0.341-Log Likelihood 55.147ChiSq 18.414***
RSq 0.143Obs 113AUC 0.736 fair
Leaving work early
Winter Weather 15
Variable Est.
Chi Sq Odds RatioIntercept -3.298 9.65***
ComNum Days
0.326 4.53**
1.385Absences Excused
1.69110.63 ***5.425
Age Youngest Kid 0.126 5.29**
1.134Stops Normally 01
0.999 3.93**
2.716-Log Likelihood 50.704ChiSq 25.427***
RSq 0.201Obs 100AUC 0.813 good
Weather begins while at work
Adding trips
Winter Weather 16
Weather begins while at work
Variable Est.
Chi Sq Odds RatioIntercept -3.520 9.23***
White
-0.707 5.33**
0.493LeisNum Days
0.239 7.29***
1.270Hhsize -adults
0.377 7.21***
1.458Employ VSImp
0.900 5.15**
2.460Road Cond VSImp
2.218 4.21**
9.190 -Log Likelihood 168.427ChiSq 37.871***
RSq 0.112Obs 246AUC 0.721 fair
Winter Weather 17
Change Route Use More HighwaysVariable Est.
Chi SqEst.
Chi Sq Odds Ratio Odds Ratio
Intercept -0.853 6.10** 0.702 3.08*
LeisNum Days
0.177 4.21**
1.193
Leis WkDay-0.657 4.20**
0.518
Er WkEnd-0.703 4.29**
0.495
RoadN Hwy
1.810
31.36 ***6.113School VSImp
-0.717 4.55**
0.488
Family VSImp
1.183
14.49 ***3.264
-Log Likelihood 170.070 120.294
ChiSq 18.819*** 48.459***
RSq 0.052 0.168Obs 269 212AUC 0.639 poor 0.765 fair
Weather begins while at work
Changing modes
Winter Weather 18
Variable Est.
Chi Sq Odds RatioIntercept -0.693 4.16**
Mode DA
-1.81518.77 ***0.163
-Log Likelihood -88.678ChiSq 17.056***
RSq 0.088Obs 278AUC 0.657 poor
Weather begins while at work
Weather begins at home
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Decision Mean N
Cancel commute 1 if commute would be canceled; 0 otherwise 0.64 262Delay commute 1 if commute would be delayed; 0 otherwise 0.63 270Commute Early
1 if respondent would leave for work early; 0 otherwise 0.55 268
Add Trips1 if respondent would add trips to the commute; 0 otherwise 0.19 263
Change Route
1 if respondent would change routes for the commute; 0 otherwise 0.41 271
Use More Highways
1 if respondent would use more highways for the commute; 0 otherwise 0.55 247
Change Mode
1 if respondent would use change transportation modes for the commute; 0 o.w. 0.08 273
Cancel the Commute
Variable
Est.
Chi SqOdds Ratio
Intercept 0.05 0.04
ErrNone -0.91 4.55**
0.40
FlexSchedOptWW 1.08 11.34***
2.94
EarnedLeave4WWAbsence
0.60 3.35*
1.83
SchoolDecisionsSomewhatImp
-0.69 3.11*
0.50
Chi Sq 20.85***
Rsq 0.08
Obs 209
AUC 0.68Murray-Tuite 20
Weather begins while at home
Commute later
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Variable
Est.
Chi SqOdds Ratio
Intercept 3.59 5.7**
ComNumDays -0.47 6.66***
0.62
WWAbsences Excused
1.21 5.40**
3.37
EmployVSImp 1.32 4.63**
3.74
SchoolDecisions SomewhatImp
-1.53 7.00***
0.22
ChildResp -2.33 4.01**
0.10
Chi Sq 23.20***
Rsq 0.17
Obs 105
AUC 0.76
Weather begins while at home
Commute earlier
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Variable
Est.
Chi SqOdds Ratio
Intercept 0.57 5.5**
ComSat 0.83 4.02**
2.29
FlexSchedOptWW -0.59 4.39**
0.56
Chi Sq 10.46***
Rsq 0.03
Obs 259
AUC 0.59
Weather begins while at home
Change routes
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Variable
Est.
Chi SqOdds Ratio
Intercept -1.64 12.89***
FlexSchedOptWW 0.73 6.61**
2.07
ModeDA 0.68 3.06*
1.98
ErrNumDays 0.10 2.97*
1.11
Chi Sq 12.26***
Rsq 0.03
Obs 262
AUC 0.63
Weather begins while at home
Use more highways
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Variable
Est.
Chi SqOdds RatioIntercept -0.60 0.39
LeisWkDay -0.88 6.20**
0.414
EmployerDecisions SomwhatImp
0.80 4.13**
2.24
RoadNLocal -2.02 33.79***
0.13
TeleworkOptWW 1.08 9.27***
2.93
RoadCondVSImp 2.16 5.54**
8.68
SchoolVSImp -0.92 6.04**
0.40
Chi Sq 71.64***
Rsq 0.26
Obs 203
AUC 0.83
Weather begins while at home
Conclusions Different decisions are associated with
different factors The personal considerations and
constraints are varied and complex Need to understand family situations, school
and employer decisions, employer flexibility, and normal travel behavior
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Acknowledgements The winter weather data collection was supported
by the Mid-Atlantic University Transportation Center. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views of MAUTC.
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Poll question Do you think better understanding of
individuals’ travel behavior changes could lead to changes in winter weather road treatment procedures? Definitely Possibly Probably not Definitely not
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