mumbai real estate presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Mumbai July – December 2015
Drastic reduction in
new project launches;
Prices steady
RESIDENTIAL
138,6
13
11
4,7
10
121,6
15
109,2
29
62,3
45
39,6
63
108,6
80
96,2
26
85,9
78
74
,094
67,7
15
62,5
81
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No
of
un
its
Launches Absorption
Launches down by 36% Y-o-Y;
Demand dips by 8%
8%
36%
67,1
72
49,0
22
53,6
67
52,2
22
26,8
33
20,7
76
60,1
79
41,9
81
41,3
69
32,7
17
36,5
05
34,1
35
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Launches Absorption
Launches down by 23% Y-o-Y;
Demand dips by 6%
49,0
22
53,6
67
52,2
22
26,8
33
20,7
76
41,9
81
41,3
69
32,7
17
36,5
05
34,1
35
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Launches Absorption
6%
23%
Housing consumption at pre-general
election era
20
,38
6
21
,03
5
17
,39
2 21
,90
3
17
,18
2
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
No
of
un
its
Absorption
PRICES stagnant
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
Rs./
sq
. ft
.
MMR prices
The ‘budget’ Peripheral
markets in distress
Budget market (INR 30-60L) decimated
13113
8110
8,3
89
6,1
61
6,2
18
5,4
43
13765
11550
12,4
04
12,3
16
11,5
55
9,6
77
16602
10922
10,0
31
7,1
33
7,6
63
7,4
51
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
of
un
its
Demand Trend
Navi Mumbai Peripheral Central Suburbs Peripheral Western Suburbs
Despite city level Demand
fall, thane bucks the trend
Buyers selective;
inr 5-15 mn ticket size preferred
2%
8%
17%
32%
21%
0%
7%
12%
2%
10%
16%
31%
21%
0%
7%
13%
2%
9%
16%
28%
22%
1%
9%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
CentralMumbai
CentralSuburbs
Navi Mumbai PeripheralCentralSuburbs
PeripheralWesternSuburbs
SouthMumbai
Thane WesternSuburbs
H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
Momentum improves in thane;
connectivity & right ticket size the
reasons
Only H2 Numbers instead of %
3,128
1,774
1,390
3,918
2,710
1,814
2,733
3,097
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
of
un
its
Launches Absorption
south mumbai;
the sleeping giant awakens
south Mumbai market marks an
improvement
0%
20%
25%
36%
2% 0%
5%
12%
0%
28%
12%
23%
10%
0%
13% 14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
CentralMumbai
CentralSuburbs
Navi Mumbai PeripheralCentralSuburbs
PeripheralWesternSuburbs
SouthMumbai
Thane WesternSuburbs
H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015
Only H2 since 2011 for only central and south mumbai
Micro-market Rs.Mn.
Unsold inventory
Value (Rs. Bn.)
Central Mumbai 101
4,721
477
Central Suburbs 17
20,983
358
Navi Mumbai 6
30,653
173
Peripheral Central Suburbs
3
54,881
155
Peripheral Western Suburbs
3
30,582
95
South Mumbai 80
1,467
118
Thane 10
13,134
134
Western Suburbs 21
24,729
510
181,151
2,020
South & Central Mumbai
6,189
595
Share in MMR 3% 29%
-
284
100
208
163
121
145
220
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
No
of
un
its
Launches Absorption
Demand steady,
supply IS DECLINING
Office
2015 Office absorption at 130% of
new completion
14.5
12.0
7.6
9.2
5.8
8.0
6.0 6.2
7.3 7.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mn
sq
ft
New completion Absorption
Low supply, steady demand improves
occupancy
6.0
3.8
6.4
3.5
2.6 2.4
4.8 5.0
23.2% 22.8%
22.6%
20.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015
mn
sq
ft
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
Office market Rents trending up
CUFFE PARADE
NARIMAN POINT
WORLI LOWER
PAREL
DADAR
VASHI
GHANSOLI
AIROLI
BELAPUR
VIKHROLI
KURLA
BHANDUP
ANDHERI
GOREGAON
MALAD
BALLARD ESTATE
THANE
POWAI
BKC
KALINA
CBD & OFF-
CBD
PBD
SBD WEST
CENTRAL
MUMBAI
BKC & OFF
BKC
Proposed International Airport
SBD CENTRAL 3%
3%
2%
2%
50-70
80-130 90-130
210-310
150-190
160-260
8.6%
16.5%
6.9%
24.8%
18.7%
26.1%
6 MONTH CHANGE
in rental value
Rental value range
in h2 2015 (INR/sq ft)
% % VACANCY
20% OVERALL
MMR
KEY TAKEAWAYS
RESIDENTIAL
housing consumption is back to the pre-general
election era of Q4 2013
Desired result of the 125 bps cut in repo rate and the
housing for all initiative not achieved
OFFICE
In 2015, demand exceeded supply for the first time since
2008
As a result of the improving demand supply equation,
vacancy level trended down