world winning cities : real estate performance and investment · real estate performance and...

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World Winning Cities :

Real Estate Performance and Investment Rosemary Feenan December, 2015

Size + Growth + Innovation =

Productivity?

‘Petri Dish Cities’ : Morphing into New Urban Form Resetting economies and creating new commercial geographies

Should we be changing our thinking about

the ‘what’ and the ‘where’ and the ‘when’ –

of successful cities?

The Old Maths Prevails : 50% of Investment in 30 Cities Q4 2012 – Q3 2015, US$ bn

Q4 2012 – Q3 2015, US$ bn

The Big 4 and US Concentration

Cross-Border Flows: 47% of $750bn Projected Total US, UK, China, Germany, Canada, France

Singapore

Beijing

Paris

Sydney

Frankfurt

12

New York Tokyo London

Shanghai Toronto

Is it the Maths? 20 Cities Consistently in Top 30

Los Angeles

Hong Kong

Boston

San Francisco

Munich

Chicago

Seoul

Melbourne

Washington

Stockholm

Americas Europe Asia Pacific

Jostling for Places, Maths or Trends ? 40 Cities (including Canadian trio) rotated through the 20 -30 positions

The Science of Cities 200 City Competiveness Indices

Momentum

Innovation

Intangibles

Politics

Pollution

Congestion

Culture

Economy

Environment

Recasting Views from Numbers to Shapes and Styles…

The ‘Big Six’ Core Markets Still need to compete – signature projects

London Paris New York Tokyo Hong Kong Singapore

Tokyo

2020

The Big Six Core Markets, Maintaining Modernity Top 10 : Ericson's Networked Society Index


The Big Ten, Core Markets for the 2020’s


Shanghai Seoul Sydney Toronto

GCF Volumes, 2006 - 2014, US$M – Big 10

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US

$ M

illio

ns

NWC Emerging Big 10

GCF Share of Global Volumes – Big 10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Glo

bal

%

NWC Emerging Big 10

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The Emerging City Evolution Curve Business or Political Capitals

Highest average rental growth over 10 years : 51% v Global 35%

The Power of the GFC

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'Emerging World Cities' Establishing Themselves as Financial Centres

Source: Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index

Z/Yen Global Financial Centres Index (2006-2015)

London London

New York

New York

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Shanghai

Shanghai

Beijing

Beijing

Mumbai

Mumbai

Moscow

Moscow

Johannesburg

Johannesburg

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

Taipei

Taipei

Istanbul

Istanbul

Riyadh

Riyadh

425

475

525

575

625

675

725

775

825

Tokyo Aims High : Mitsubishi Building…Unmistakable Trends

New World Cities – Performance to Watch

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RGB:188.20.2

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85.0

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Aqua

RGB:77.188.1

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CMYK:65.0.2

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RGB:50.142.1

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'New World Cities' dominate JLL's Investment Intensity Index JLL Investment Intensity Index - Global Top 20

3-year rolling total direct real estate investment volumes to Q3 2015

Source: JLL September 2015

Total Real EstateInvestment as a Proportion of City GDP

London 1

Munich 2

Honolulu 3

Sydney 4

Oslo 5

Copenhagen 6

Auckland 7

Frankfurt 8

San Jose 9

Stockholm 10

San Francisco 11

Melbourne 12

Dublin 13

Paris 14

New York 15

Austin 16

Boston 17

Tokyo 18

Edinburgh 19

Seattle 20

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Pantone:7545

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RGB:113.34.1

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New World City Geography

100 Transformational Urban Projects

1 000 square

kilometres

120 million sqm

floor space

3+ million jobs

$

$750 billion

Seaport Squaure,

Boston

World’s Most Transparent Real Estate Market JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index, 2014

Main commercial city in each country

Source: JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index, 2014

Highly Transparent Transparent

London 1

New York 2

Sydney 3

Auckland 4

Paris 5

Toronto 6

Amsterdam 7

Dublin 8

Helsinki 9

Zurich 10

Stockholm 11

Frankfurt 12

Singapore 13

Hong Kong 14

Brussels 15

Copenhagen 16

Warsaw 17

Madrid 18

Oslo 19

Johannesburg 20

Vienna 21

Milan 22

Lisbon 23

Prague 24

Budapest 25

Tokyo 26

Kuala Lumpur 27

Sao Paulo 28

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Pantone:630

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Pantone:549

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CMYK:40.0.0.

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CMYK:60.55.

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RGB:113.34.1

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Key Drivers of Transparency Improvement

Recognition of impacts

Sustainability tools

Renewed economic growth

Expanding global reach

Rising expectations

Media spotlight

‘Open Data’ culture

Source: JLL LaSalle Investment Management

breakdown of old hierarchies,

build up of new styles

disruptive business models,

productive technologies

Growing city size, shrinking footprint

New Urban choices and geographies

A New Investment Outlook

Canadian Outbound Investment : Consistent? Ten Cities : 55% of Canadian Investment : Q1 2006 – Q3 2015 London, Paris, Shanghai, Sydney, Minneapolis, Seattle, Boston, New

York, LA ,Chicago

71bn

!

World Winning Cities :

Real Estate Performance and Investment Rosemary Feenan December, 2015

world winning cities : real estate performance and investment · real estate performance and...

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