multiple borrowing among microfinance clients results from an area study prepared by ronald t. chua...
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Multiple Borrowing among Microfinance ClientsResults from an Area Study
Prepared by Ronald T. Chua and Erwin R. Tiongson
July 2012
Introduction
This PPT provides a summary of the findings from a study of multiple borrowing in an urban community.
As a pilot effort that draws information from a variety of sources, it potentially enriches our understanding of the dimensions, the prevalence, and correlates of multiple borrowing.
As a pilot effort, however, it is also suffers from several technical weaknesses. As explained in the following slides, the results should be interpreted with caution.
An accompanying report describes details of the methodology and the analyses conducted.
Background: Notes from 2009-2011 consultations
Multiple borrowing = “Over-indebtedness”“Over-borrowing”“Multiple indebtedness”“Loan recycling”“Client poaching”“Loan pushing”“Credit pollution”“Over-supply of loans"
Background: Notes from 2009-2011 consultations
There are several dimensions of multiple borrowing • Different notions of “multiple borrowing”• Borrowing from multiple MFIs? Or from multiple sources, both formal and
informal? Or multiple loans from the same MFI? All of the above?
The incidence of multiple borrowing is not clear• How prevalent is multiple borrowing?
The causes and consequences also unclear• On one hand
• Loans used to pay off other loans• Multiple borrowing may lead to rising levels of delinquency and default
• On the other hand• Households may need multiple sources of credit • Households may be perfectly able to manage their finances
Research Objectives
1. Clarify dimensions of multiple borrowing• Multiple borrowing across MFIs, within MFIs, across
loan sources (MFI, non-MFI, informal)
2. Estimate the incidence of multiple borrowing• Multiple borrowers in percent of MFI clients, in
percent of all households, etc.
3. Understand the correlates of multiple borrowing• Statistical profile• Repayment record
Research Design
Commonwealth area of Quezon City as the area of study, including the following barangays: Commonwealth, Payatas, Holy Spirit, Bagong Silangan, Fairview, Batasan Hills1. Based on a series of consultations in 2009-20112. Several MFIs are known to operate in this
community3. Anecdotal evidence suggested the existence of
multiple borrowing
Research Design
• Technical considerationso Credibility of household-level information: How
reliable are self-reported levels of indebtedness?o The sources of multiple loans: Should we include
both formal and informal sources of finance? o The unit of measurement: How do we treat
individuals in the same household?
Research Design
Sources of Information1. Household Survey• Random sample, geographically representative• 800 households• Patterned after FIES, APIS, and credit modules• Comprehensive credit information: MFI, bank, informal,
government, etc.
2. Branch Client Data from MFIs Operating in the Commonwealth Area• Consolidated information using search algorithm based on name
and address and/or birth date
3. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
Research Design
Sources of Information Dimensions of Multiple Borrowing1. Borrowing from several MFIs (branch client data)2. Multiple loans from the same MFI (branch client
data)3. Multiple loans from several sources of finance,
including formal and informal sources (household survey)
4. Sequential versus simultaneous multiple borrowing (FGD)
Research Design
Sources of Information: Caveat1. They are analyzed separately and cannot be consolidated.2. They vary in representativeness
• e.g., FGD participants not representative of general population
3. They vary in scope and comprehensiveness• e.g., branch client data do not provide information on other sources of financing
4. They are subject to error• Errors include misreporting, sampling errors, encoding errors, etc.
5. They are cross-sectional (from a single point in time) and provide little information about • dynamics (i.e., how things evolve over time) and • causality (e.g., if multiple borrowing is correlated with financial distress: did
multiple borrowing cause distress or was it distress that initially led to multiple borrowing?)
Research Design
Additional features: Branch Client Data1. As agreed with partners, sources of branch client data
are not publicly revealed2. Restricted access to branch client data (principal
researchers)
3.1
23.8
24.5
7.3
16.6
0.8
1.9
9.3
6.4
2.5
6.8
57.0
Credit card
Store
Family, friends
Employer
SSS
Government banks
Pawnshop
Private moneylender
Lending investor
Private commercial banks
MFIs
All
Percent of Indebted Households(By source, in percent of all households)
Household Survey: Selected Findings57 percent of
households: at least one
outstanding loan
Only 6.8 percent of
households are MFI clients
Household Survey: Selected Findings
No debt43%
Single debt25%
Multiple debt32%
Distribution of Households (By level of indebtedness)
This chart refers to all households. Of the MFI client households alone, 77 percent are “multiple borrowers”, all sources of finance considered.
Household Survey: Selected Findings
2 loans29%
3 loans38%
4 loans9%
5+ loans24%
Multiple Borrowers among MFI Clients(By number of loans)
2 loans47%
3 loans25%
4 loans16%
5+ loans12%
Multiple Borrowers(By number of loans)
These charts show multiple borrowers by number of loans (all sources of finance considered)• For multiple borrowers as a group, 52 percent have 3 or more loans.• For multiple borrowers MFI clients as a group, 71 percent have 3 or more loans
Household Survey: Selected Findings
One loan is insufficient to start or expand business.
11%
A recent shock (illness, death, job
loss)16%
Part of the loan was used to pay for
tuition8%Part of the loan
used to pay off existing debt
19%
One loan is insufficient to pay
for a major consumption
expenditure, etc.46%
Multiple Borrowing:Self-Reported Loan Use
Household Survey: Selected FindingsHow Many Times Did You Miss Payments
The Last 3 Months?
Zero83%
Once7%
Twice or more10%
All Indebted Households
Zero78%
Once9%
Twice or more13%
Multiple Borrowers
There is no evidence that multiple borrowing is associated with higher delinquency, compared with average indebted household.• Caveat: based on self-reported information• This is from cross-sectional information or information from a single point in time
Selected Cross-Checks
Source: Commonwealth survey; World Bank Global Findex database; authors’ calculations.
Compare with the Consumer
Finance Survey:4 percent of
households own credit cards
The Framework
MFI1
Database
Client 1
Client 2
…
Client 2000
MFI2
Database
MFI3
Database
MFI4
Database
MFI5
Database
MFI6
Database
MFI7
Database
MFI8
Database
MFI9
Database
MFI10
Database
MFI11
Database
MFI12
Database
MFI13
Database
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
14 percent
Incidence of Multiple Borrowing•On average, 14 percent of MFI clients•Substantial variation across MFIs (4-26
percent)
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
Incidence: Within-MFI Multiple Borrowing• “Within-MFI” multiple borrowing also exists, i.e.,
multiple loans from the same MFI• Most cases appear to be known to the MFI• Some may not be known (borrowing from several
branches)• On average, where they exist, within-MFI multiple
borrowers represent 5 percent of all MFI clients• Some overlap with multiple borrowing as defined
previously (14 percent)
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
Number of Loans•Most multiple borrowers have loans from only
2 MFIs•About 15 percent of multiple borrowers have
loans from 3 or more MFIs
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
Share of Outstanding Loans• Loan sizes tend to be uniform. As a result, the
share of loans accounted for by multiple borrowers tend to be proportional to the incidence of multiple borrowing (14 percent)
• However, among multiple borrowers who also take out multiple loans from the same MFI (within-MFI multiple borrowing), their share of all outstanding 2nd or 3rd loans within the same MFI tends to be large (40 percent).
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
Correlates• In general, no strong evidence linking multiple
borrowing to specific lengths of membership, loan cycles, client age, and other demographic patterns.
• There are some suggestive patterns. • Multiple borrowers with two or three loans tend to
be on longer loan cycles. • Multiple borrowers also tend to be somewhat older
Branch Client Data: Selected Results
Delinquency• There is no evidence that multiple borrowing is associated with
delinquent payment, at least not among the active clients. • This should be interpreted with caution. This indicates the
average observable outcome to date and does not at all address the possible impact of economic or income shocks and whether multiple borrowers can fall into delinquency as a result.
• There are large differences in the availability of information on missing payments. The data are not recorded consistently across MFIs.
• May reflect business opportunities in a particular urban community. The economics may differ in other communities, including rural communities.
FGDs: Selected Findings
• Participants consisted of:o MFI members known or who have admitted to having
loans from at least one other MFIo Branch staff
• MFI clients were selected by MFI staff. Only criterion was that they have borrowed or have current loans from at least two MFIs
• Each group consisted of 8 to 12 discussants
FGDs: Selected Findings
Profiles of FGD participants• A number of participants are center chiefs or group leaders
in the MFIs• Have had many years of borrowing experience• Long time residents of Commonwealth (one had been
resident in area for 30 years)
Borrowing behavior reported• Borrowed sequentially from several MFIs • Borrowed simultaneously several MFIs
FGDs: Selected Findings
On proliferation of lending sources• Clients observed that there has been an increase in the number of
lenders in the area recently, as recent as the past year (2010-2011)• Clients appreciated the availability of more choices• Some cited concerns about their own inability to repay so
expressed preference to stay with one MFI
Reasons for borrowing from multiple sources• To maximize benefits. No one single MFI offers a whole range of• Obtain sufficiently large consolidated loan from several MFIs as one
MFI loan is not sufficient for their needs• To meet emergency needs• To try out other sources• To stagger payments (multiple loans from the same MFI are paid on
the same day; multiple loans from multiple loans can be staggered)
Caveat
• This is not nationally representative• This is from cross-sectional data that mask the
changes over time• The data are subject to error• Data are from multiple sources and not fully
consistent
Summary and Concluding Observations
• Multiple borrowing exists, it exists in various forms, and is not small. Though the data sources cannot be fully consolidated, they suggest the following incidence, along several dimensions:o 5 percent if multiple borrowing means taking out multiple
loans from the same MFIo 14 percent if multiple borrowing means borrowing from
several MFIs, though there is substantial variation across MFIs
o 77 percent if multiple borrowing means borrowing from one MFI as well as from any other source of finance
Summary and Concluding Observations
• Multiple borrowers take out multiple loans for a variety of reasons. Some report that a single loan is insufficient to pay for a major consumption expenditure or to invest in a business activity. Some are after the auxiliary services attached to various loans.
• We are unable to find a distinctive statistical profile of multiple borrowers. There is some evidence to suggest that they are older and are on longer loan cycles, but otherwise there is (to date) no strong statistical links between multiple borrowing and individual demographic characteristics as well as characteristics of the loan itself (size, loan cycle, reported loan use).
Summary and Concluding Observations
• There is no evidence that multiple borrowing is associated with delinquent payment, at least not among the active clients.
• This should be interpreted with caution. This indicates the average observable outcome to date. We are unable to say anything meaningful about the likelihood of falling into delinquency. There are large differences in the availability of information on missing payments and the data are not fully consistent across MFIs. Furthermore, the sample represents a particular urban community. It is not clear whether this relationship holds more generally.