multimodal planning branch€¦ · infrastructure condition, system performance, and maintenance...

4201 E. Arkansas Ave., Room 262, Denver, CO 80222-3400 P 303.757.9525 F 303.757.9656 www.coloradodot.Info

Purpose This memo provides an overview of the statewide planning process and initial information on the next Statewide Transportation Plan (2045 SWP) in preparation for the summer 2018 kickoff of SWP development. Action Obtain Transportation Commission feedback on the formation of a Transportation Commission subcommittee on development of the next SWP. Background A number of planning and outreach activities are taking place in preparation for the official kickoff of SWP development. The major activities include:

• Launch of the TransPlanning Partnership involving an education series primarily for rural transportation planning regions

• Formation of three technical working groups based on STAC recommendations. These are Autonomous and Connected Vehicle Scenario Planning, Technology Policy, and Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Development

• Development of a draft consultant scope of work

Details The following is an overview of the statewide transportation planning process and initial thoughts on the next SWP. Statewide Transportation Planning Process and Key Partners: Statewide transportation planning is continuing, cooperative, and comprehensive. The process involves CDOT and its planning partners (the five metropolitan planning organizations and the 10 rural Transportation Planning Regions - TPRs), a broad array of special interest groups, and the public. Statewide Plan Key Elements and Requirements: Key elements of a SWP arise from state statutes and federal regulations. At a minimum, the SWP should include a description of the state of the transportation system; an overview of the planning process; key data findings, needs, and revenues; what steps CDOT is taking to deliver on the promises of the SWP; integration of key parts of other CDOT plans; and an explanation of the funding situation. Transportation Commission Policy: The Transportation Commission annually reviews and updates Policy Directive (PD) 14, a performance-based policy that guides transportation planning and sets objectives for the safety, infrastructure condition, system performance, and maintenance goals. Revenue Projection and Program Distribution: In advance of each SWP, CODT staff projects state and federal revenues for the planning horizon of the SWP and RTPs. These revenue projections may be for baseline, low, and

Multimodal Planning Branch 4201 E. Arkansas Ave., Shumate Building Denver, CO 80222-3400

DATE: February 14, 2018 TO: Transportation Commission FROM: Debra Perkins-Smith, DTD Division Director and Michelle Scheuerman, Statewide Planning Manager SUBJECT: Statewide Planning Process and next Statewide Transportation Plan


high to allow for uncertainty in revenues. During program distribution, a STAC subcommittee assigns these long-range estimates to funding programs. Together, the revenue projections and program distribution form the financial framework to develop the SWP and RTPs. After CDOT develops revenue projects and program distribution in cooperation with the rural TPRs and MPOs, the Transportation Commission approves the revenue estimates and program distribution. STIP Development: After the SWP and RTPs are complete, CDOT develops the four-year fiscally constrained STIP (Statewide Transportation Improvement Program) that contains projects consistent with the transportation priorities and improvements in the transportation plans. CDOT incorporates the MPO Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) into the STIP without change or by reference. Public and Stakeholder Participation: Throughout the planning process, the public and stakeholders participate in identifying regional and statewide transportation needs, issues, and priorities. The public and stakeholders also provide thoughts on key SWP information as it is developed. CDOT uses innovative methods tailored for the topics and targeted audiences. Continued Monitoring and Performance Measures: CDOT posts quarterly reports online about CDOT accomplishments in the SWP goals of safety, infrastructure condition, maintenance, and economic vitality. These reports are temporarily located on the CDOT statewide transportation plan website, but eventually will be on Your CDOT Dollar website. The reports help to track progress toward meeting the performance measures and objectives.

Main themes for the 2045 SWP. Making the SWP relatable to the public has often been a challenge. Thinking about what is important to the public is key. Below are initial themes that we believe may resonate with the public.

• Connecting the Economy and Transportation (e.g. freight/getting the goods you need) • Quality of Life – Getting to work, home, and play more easily. • Others to be developed

Preliminary thoughts on new content for the 2045 SWP: • Scenario Planning – Connected and Autonomous Vehicles • Systems Level Planning • Land Use Considerations • Public Health and Transportation Assessment • Risk and Resiliency • Others to be developed

Next Steps: These are the forthcoming steps in the planning process:

• Spring 2018 – Transportation Commission approves opening the Statewide Planning Rules to public comment

• Late spring 2018 – CDOT selects consultant • Summer 2018 – Transportation Commission formally kicks off 2045 SWP development

Attachment A: Statewide Planning Process Presentation

STATEWIDE PLANNING PROCESS

FEBRUARY 14, 2018

Statewide Transportation Planning

Ongoing Public Involvement & Stakeholder Engagement

Planning Process Participants

• Planning Partners are rural Transportation Planning Region (TPR) and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) representatives

• MPOs are responsible for developing their own Regional Transportation Plans (RTPs), while CDOT assists the rural TPRs in developing their RTPs

Statewide Transportation Plan

Why is a Statewide Transportation Plan Needed?

• Road map for Colorado's transportation system

• Describes our future transportation system

• Required by state and federal law

State & Federal Planning RequirementsDevelop a multimodal transportation plan with:

• Statewide Planning Rules Update

• Minimum 20-year + forecasting horizon

• Long-range revenue projection estimates and program distribution (aligning revenue projection to funding programs)

• State and federal planning factors addressed

• Related studies integrated

• Vision, needs and desired state of the system

• Strategies to ensure preservation and most efficient use of system

• Operational and management strategies to improve performance of the system

Policy Directive 14 – Policy Guiding

Statewide Development• Guides Statewide Transportation Plan

Development• Reviewed annually • Performance-based for the following Goal

Areas:− Safety: All Highways, and Bike and

Pedestrian− Infrastructure Condition: Bridges,

Highways, Other Assets (buildings, ITS, fleet, etc.), and Transit

− System Performance: Interstates, NHS and State Highway System, and Transit

− Maintenance: Snow and Ice Removal, and Overall Maintenance

Transportation Commission Policy

Revenue Projection &

Program Distribution

• Three revenue scenarios are developed: high, medium, and low

• Program Distribution - long-range revenue estimates assigned to funding programs and reflected in annual budget program areas.

• Planning partner involvement and Transportation Commission approval

Corridor-Based Planning & Integration

• 308 Corridors Statewide (Interstates, US Highways, and State Routes)

• Corridor Visioning – 20-year + multimodal needs

• 10-year Corridor Needs Assessment

• Corridor Prioritization

• Strategies and improvements to support goals and objectives

2045 SWP

CorridorVisions

Corridor Needs & Priorities

Assessment

Corridor Strategies &

Improvements

Plan Integration

• Safety

− Strategic Highway Safety Plan

• Mobility

− Smart Mobility Plan

− Statewide Transit Plan

• Maintaining the System

− Asset Management Plan

• Economic Vitality

− Colorado Freight Plan

Identify Needs and Gap

• “Needs” are investment levels needed to accomplish defined objectives (PD 14)

• “Gap” estimated after comparing projected revenues to anticipated needs

• Foundation for Development Program• Needs are data driven – Not a wish list

₋ Unfunded needs stated in Development Program

• Two Time Periods covered in 2040 SWP for Needs and Gap₋ 2016-2025₋ 2026-2040

• Needs product is a dollar expression of representative needs and not a specific project list

Ongoing Public Involvement & Stakeholder Input

• Over 60,000 Participants• SWP Transportation Matters Website• Media Outlets

₋ Press Releases, newspaper, radio, public access TV announcements, and letters to the Editor

• Public Surveys• Environmental Consultation/

Webinars₋ With Environmental Resource Agencies

and Native American Tribes

• 16 Telephone Town Halls₋ Hosted by Commissioners₋ Conducted in each TPR and MPO

statewide

• Public Meetings with TPRs

Public & Stakeholder Participation

Continued Monitoring and

Performance Measures

• SWP Monitoring & Reporting– Quarterly reports

– Annual performance review

– PD 14 updated/revised annually

New Elements for 2045 SWP

New Features Details

Scenario Planning Planning that asks “What if. . ?” Use the new Statewide Travel Model to conduct analysis

Systems Level Planning Consider all travel modes as a system

Congestion Analysis Use of ITS/INRIX data; Considernumber of people and amount of goods moved, not vehicles

Land Use Considerations First time a statewide travel model will be available for planning purposes

Public Health & Transportation Assessment

Establish link between transportation and public health

Risk and Resiliency Analysis Criticality analysis from I-70 Resiliency Pilot

Key Themes of the Next Statewide Plan

2045 SWP &

Rural RTPs

Economic VitalityClearly establish the link between transportation and the economy

TechnologyInclude RoadX and TSM&O

technologies when identifying system improvements

Quality of LifeHighlight the link of transportation

to travel convenience, public health and the environment

All Travel ModesAssess the statewide multimodal

transportation system when addressing issues, needs, and

priorities

2045 Statewide Plan Key Milestones

Ongoing Public Involvement

Kick-off 2045 SWPSummer 2018

2045 SWP RFP & Consultant NTP Spring – Summer 2018

Data Collection & Analysis August – December 2018

Funding Gap, Vision and GoalsJanuary 2019 – March 2019

Investment Strategies April 2019 – June 2019

Plan Implementation & Monitoring Approach July 2019 – August 2019

Issues, Needs & Priorities December 2018 – February 2019

TC Adopt 2045 SWP March 2020

Next Steps

• Transportation Commission will approve opening Statewide Planning Rules, spring 2018

• Consultant selection, late spring 2018

• Formal Kick-off of 2045 SWP development by Commission, summer 2018


Purpose This memo provides an overview of the statewide travel forecasting model, the state of its development (nearing completion), and some discussion concerning how it can be used to support CDOT planning and engineering. Action No Action. Informational only. Background On numerous past planning and design projects, CDOT has started the project by building a new travel forecasting model for use on the project, only to abandon it at the conclusion of the project. In 2013, CDOT made the decision to build an official statewide travel forecasting model, the availability of which would save money and schedule on such projects, and provide for more consistent analysis from one project to another. CDOT entered into a contract with the firm Cambridge Systematics in mid-2014 to assist in building the model, and the work is now nearing completion. CDOT is commencing several projects in 2018 that will use the model, including:

- The Statewide Transportation Plan - The HPTE Express Lane Master Plan - The Rocky Mountain Hyperloop Feasibility Study

Details How the model works: The model forecasts usage of transportation systems starting with a depiction of:

- the development across the state (how many households/people, and where they are; and how many jobs, and what kind, and where they are);

- and the transportation system (essentially the same thing as a detailed map of the road and transit systems).

The model uses extensive surveys of households across the state, gathering information about people and the trips they made, to construct economic models that estimate:

- what kinds of people (e.g., a person in his/her 30s with a full time job); - make what kinds of trip choices (e.g., a choice to go to work on a weekday); - when faced with any given set of possibilities (e.g., the possibility of driving alone, carpooling, or taking

transit for the commute.) The model then produces estimates of how many trips people make, for what purpose they make them, by what mode they make them, what route they follow, and what time of day they make the trips. Such a tool can be used to evaluate a wide variety of possible transportation facilities and policies. Where we are on the project at this point: CDOT and Cambridge Systematics are “calibrating” the model now (comparing the traffic volumes and transit ridership the model produces to traffic counts and transit ridership counts, and making adjustments as necessary), aiming to complete the model by March 31, 2018.

Multimodal Planning Branch 4201 E. Arkansas Ave., Shumate Building Denver, CO 80222-3400

DATE: February 14, 2018 TO: Transportation Commission FROM: Debra Perkins-Smith, DTD Division Director SUBJECT: Statewide Travel Model: Progress of Development, and Example

Applications


Types of analysis the model can assist: the model can evaluate a wide range of projects and policies, from express lanes and other approaches to user charges, to expansion of general-purpose lanes. It can evaluate bus and rail transit, and effects of road closures due to extreme weather events. It can evaluate the effects of different growth rates and patterns. It can show outcomes such as revenue, congestion, pollutant and noise emissions, and many others. Next Steps: DTD will proceed with completion of this model and use on upcoming projects. Attachment A: TCModelPresentation021418Final ppt

CDOT’s Statewide Forecasting Model

Transportation Commission

February 14th, 2018

Model steps and interface

The Model depicts how people decide how much to travel, where to travel, what mode and route to take, and what time of day they should travel.

The model starts with longer-term decisions…

Works down to shorter-term decisions…

And finishes by showing traffic on roads and passengers on transit facilities…

And it also estimates bicycle and pedestrian demand.

“Straight out of the box”, we’ll be able to evaluate:

• Weekday conditions only• Future years of your choice• Highway and transit demand, e.g.:

• Effects of toll and/or other user charge approaches

• Addition of general purpose lanes• Effects of closures (due to weather events,

etc.)• Rail service• Inter-regional bus service• Vehicle emissions and fuel/energy use

• Different growth rates or patterns• Bike/pedestrian demand (limited capability)

What can the model do?

Planned enhancements include:

• Better connected/automated vehicle analysis• Ability to analyze weekend conditions

Some projects will want to develop model enhancements as part of their scope

First projects lined up to use it:

• The Statewide Transportation Plan• The HPTE Express Lane Master Plan• The Rocky Mountain Hyperloop Feasibility Study

We’ll enhance the model as needed

CNG vehicle travel-shed analysis

Major freeway closure analysis

http://arcg.is/1PbvoTb

A link I’m going to try to make work

http://arcg.is/1PbvoTb

Point-level land use example

This is another secondary page. Again, CDOT logo with no text is used at smaller size. This page is good when you have a lot of text, but no pictures or graphics.

A text heavy slide like this might use bullet points. They should be a brand color. To choose/change color, use Format/Bullets and Numbering from main PPT menu.• One• Two• Three

Color bar should be used as shown below on this slide to add visual interest. This time it appears in a color from the secondary CDOT brand palette, but any color from the palette is acceptable.

Point-level land use example

Erik E. Sabina, P.E.Manager, Information Management BranchDivision of Transportation [email protected]

My contact information

mailto:[email protected]

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