multifamily month in review: new york city | … · brooklyn had a strong month with $312.5 million...
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212.544.9500 I arielpa.nyc122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405, New York NY 10168
MULTIFAMILY MONTH IN REVIEW:NEW YORK CITY | SEPTEMBER 2016Released November 2016 | By Ariel Property Advisors
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Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc | 2
ABOUT THE REPORT | CONTENT
Ariel Property Advisors is pleased to present its Multifamily Month In Review: New York City. The report provides a monthly overview of market activity, benchmark transactions, revenue and expense trends, and current events that affect the multifamily real estate market.
The Multifamily Month In Review is distributed to our clients on a monthly basis. Past versions of the Multifamily Month In Review can be found at arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/research-reports
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Multifamily Month In Review: New York City 3Multifamily Market Performance by Sub-Market 4Transaction & Dollar Volume By QuarterTrailing 6-Month Moving Average 5Pricing Indicators & Distributions 6About Ariel Property Advisors 7
SALES TEAM:
Shimon Shkury212.544.9500 ext. 11
Victor Sozio212.544.9500 ext. [email protected]
Michael A. Tortorici212.544.9500 ext. 13
ANALYST TEAM:
Spencer Kiely212.544.9500 ext. 52
Dusan Panic212.544.9500
COMPILED BY:
Multifamily Month In Review | New York City
3 | Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc
LEGEND:
Manhattan is defined as below 96th Street on the east side and below 110th Street on the west side
METRICS SEP 2016
% CHANGE VS. AUG
2016
AUG 2016
% CHANGE VS. SEP
2015
SEP 2015
Transaction Vol 50 4% 48 -19% 62
Building Vol 83 32% 63 -39% 137
Dollar Vol $1,184,500,497 102% $586,353,499 -29% $1,660,074,226
Total Units 3,712 113% 1,743 -5% 3,890
ManhattanNorthern Manhattan
The BronxBrooklyn
Queens
DOLLAR VOLUME COMPARISON BY LOCATION CHART
BUILDING VOLUME COMPARISON BY LOCATION CHART
ManhattanNorthern ManhattanBronxBrooklynQueens
ManhattanNorthern ManhattanBronxBrooklynQueens
52+3+15+26+4+x30+10+19+34+7+x
52%3%
15%26%
4%
30%10%19%34%
7%
New
Yo
rk C
ityMULTIFAMILY MONTH IN REVIEW: NEW YORK CITY | SEPTEMBER 2016
New York City multifamily market maintained strong dollar volume amidst fewer transac-tions in September as sales activity bounced back from a lackluster August. Manhattan led the city in terms of dollar volume while Brooklyn led in number of transactions.
For the month, New York City saw 50 transactions comprised of 83 buildings totaling $1.18 billion in gross consideration. While this represents a modest year-over-year de-crease in terms of dollar and transaction volume, September 2016 building volume was up 32% and dollar volume was up 102% compared to August 2016, which saw 48 transac-tions consisting of 63 buildings totaling $586 million in gross consideration.
Manhattan led the city in dollar volume with $618.76 million in multifamily sales across 10 transactions consisting of 25 buildings. Much of this activity was driven by the $421 million sale of 63-67 Wall Street, two attached rental buildings that combine for a total of 793 units spanning 703,706 square feet. The sales price represents $598 per square foot. On the Upper East Side, three adjacent mixed-use walk-up buildings at 1771-1775 1st Avenue sold for $22.8 million, which represents $1,053 per square foot and $542,750 per unit.
Brooklyn had a strong month with $312.5 million in multifamily sales across 22 transac-tions during September, compared to $225 million in dollar volume over 22 transactions in September 2015. In Bedford-Stuyvesant, a portfolio of three new construction walk-up buildings containing 29 units at 186-194 Herkimer Street & 643 Madison Street sold for $12.8 million, a value that represents a price per square foot of $670. In Park Slope, a 14-unit walk-up multifamily building at 353 12th Street sold for $3.65 million, or $543 per square foot.
Northern Manhattan had a very light month with $22.3 million in sales across 3 transac-tions. While the past two months have been relatively slow in Northern Manhattan, it is important to remember the area is having a strong 2016 with $1.85 billion in gross con-sideration so far this year. One of the noteworthy transactions this month was a 10-unit walk-up multifamily building at 334 East 117th Street in East Harlem that sold for $3.3 million, which translates to $406 per square foot or $330,000 per unit.
The Bronx saw 11 transactions totaling $178 million in September, a strong uptick from the $20 million in gross consideration that traded in August. In Melrose, a 25-unit walk-up mixed-use building at 295 East 149th Street sold for $5.16 million, which represents a price per square foot of $301 and $206,400 per unit. In Kingsbridge Heights a 33-unit walk-up building at 2101 Grand Avenue, traded for $6.85 million or $213 per square foot.
Queens saw 131 units trade across 4 transactions totaling $52.65 million in gross con-siderations for the month of September. A&E Real Estate purchased a 60-unit walk-up building at 37-33 Lawrence Street in Flushing for $14.25 million, which translates to $331 per square foot or $237,588 per unit. Another notable transaction took place at 35-52 94th Street, a 16-unit walk-up building in Jackson Heights, which sold for $3.6 million or $282 per square foot.
For the six months ending in September 2016 (page 5), the average monthly transaction volume decreased slightly to 57 transactions per month and the average monthly dollar volume decreased slightly to $1.036 billion.
SEPTEMBER 2016 SNAPSHOT
Dollar Volume
TransactionVolume
Building Volume
$1.18 billion
50 83102% increase
compared toAugust 2016
4% increasecompared toAugust 2016
32%increasecompared toAugust 2016
Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc | 4
LEGEND
DOLLAR VOLUME COMPARISON GRAPH
BUILDING VOLUME COMPARISON GRAPH
MULTIFAMILY MARKET PERFORMANCE BY SUB-MARKET
METRICSSEP
2016% CHANGE
VS. AUG 2016AUG2016
% CHANGE VS. SEP 2015
SEP2015
Transaction Vol 10 -38% 16 -38% 16
Building Vol 25 32% 19 -55% 56
Dollar Vol $618,762,218 268% $168,190,000 -42% $1,068,731,852
Total Units 1,249 358% 273 -29% 1,750
Transaction Vol 3 -62% 8 -77% 13
Building Vol 8 -11% 9 -78% 36
Dollar Vol $22,300,000 -68% $70,200,000 -93% $321,055,000
Total Units 107 -63% 289 -91% 1,150
Transaction Vol 11 83% 6 57% 7
Building Vol 16 129% 7 78% 9
Dollar Vol $178,231,000 786% $20,115,000 500% $29,696,287
Total Units 1,467 1028% 130 522% 236
Transaction Vol 22 144% 9 0% 22
Building Vol 28 75% 16 0% 28
Dollar Vol $312,551,999 82% $171,388,499 39% $225,446,087
Total Units 758 62% 469 17% 650
Transaction Vol 4 -56% 9 0% 4
Building Vol 6 -50% 12 -25% 8
Dollar Vol $52,655,280 -66% $156,460,000 248% $15,145,000
Total Units 131 -77% 582 26% 104
Man
hatt
anN
. Man
hatt
anTh
e B
ronx
Bro
okl
ynQ
ueen
s
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
$500m
$450m
$400m
$350m
$300m
$250m
$200m
$150m
$100m
$50m
$0Sep’16 Aug ‘16 Sep‘15
Manhattan
Northern Manhattan
The Bronx
Brooklyn
Queens
Sep’16 Aug ‘16 Sep‘15
$1b
Multifamily Month In Review | New York City
5 | Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc
$6.5b 110
$2b 90
$1.5b 70
$1b 50
$500mm 30
TRANSACTION & DOLLAR VOLUME BY QUARTER | TRAILING 6-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
$2.15b 85
$1.90b 80
$1.75b 75
$1.60b 70
$1.45b 65
$1.30b 60
$1.15b 55
$1b 50
$850mm 45
$600mm 40
$450mm 35
$300mm 30
THE TRAILING 6-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
LEGEND: Transaction Volume | Dollar Volume
6 MONTHSENDED
AVG.DOLLAR VOL.
AVG.TRANSACTION VOL.
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sep
2015 Sep $1,132,901,877 66
Oct $1,110,409,139 64
Nov $1,005,269,530 60
Dec $1,936,459,715 58
2016 Jan $1,971,203,990 56
Feb $1,974,250,370 56
Mar $1,991,610,142 57
Apr $1,981,075,005 56
May $2,100,515,542 58
Jun $1,217,951,750 60
Jul $1,178,978,694 60
Aug $1,133,223,849 61
Sep $1,036,601,789 57
MULTIFAMILY TRANSACTION TIMELINE
LEGEND: Transaction Volume | Dollar Volume
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Trans Vol: 216 180 165 179 182 159Dollar
Vol: $3.14b $3.65b $7.96b $3.98b $3.32b $2.89b
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc | 6
25+71+4+A69+30+1+A
26+41+33+A
Tran
sact
ion
Su
mm
ary
By
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
me
By
Do
llar
Vo
lum
e
19+64+17+A14+30+56+A22+41+37+A70+28+2+A53+29+18+A61+30+9+A75+19+6+A
APR 2016 - SEP 2016 APR 2015 - SEP 2015
Location /Criteria
Total Transactions
Total Buildings
Traded
Total Dollar
Value Traded
Median Price
Total Units
Traded
Median Units /
Transaction
Total Transactions
Total Buildings
Traded
Total Dollar
Value Traded
Median Price
Total Units
Traded
Median Units /
Transaction
Manhattan 75 129 $2,058,789,218 $13,000,000 3,621 21 83 156 $2,639,001,235 $13,200,000 4,150 22
N. Manhattan 53 95 $1,281,580,952 $8,350,000 5,076 30 65 161 $1,059,614,308 $10,000,000 4,011 43
Bronx 66 104 $591,771,222 $4,595,000 4,279 29 87 146 $899,061,916 $5,000,000 6,092 38
Brooklyn 108 181 $1,531,377,208 $7,725,000 4,624 28 129 224 $1,830,733,554 $5,000,000 5,371 23
Queens 39 62 $756,092,132 $6,795,000 2,852 30 32 48 $369,000,250 $3,550,000 1,334 15
Summary 341 571 $6,219,610,732 $8,100,000 20,452 26 396 735 $6,797,411,263 $7,000,000 20,958 27
TRAILING SIX MONTH PERFORMANCE: DEAL DISTRIBUTION BY TRANSACTION COUNT AND DOLLAR VOLUME
LEGEND: $20MM+ | $5-20mm | $1-5mm
PRICING INDICATORS & DISTRIBUTIONS
MANHATTAN N. MANHATTAN BRONX BROOKLYN QUEENS
25% 19% 14% 22% 26%
71% 64% 30% 41% 41%
4% 17% 56% 37% 33%
MANHATTAN N. MANHATTAN BRONX BROOKLYN QUEENS
69% 70% 53% 60% 75%
30% 28% 29% 32% 19%
1% 2% 18% 8% 6%
Pric
ing
Ind
icat
ors
Location /Criteria
Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM
Manhattan $659,611 $973 3.65% 20.57 $794,960 $966 3.60% 20.23
N. Manhattan $315,308 $359 4.03% 15.55 $271,096 $333 4.31% 15.14
Bronx $155,138 $178 5.27% 11.13 $140,825 $160 5.70% 9.98
Brooklyn $324,030 $367 4.64% 15.32 $291,789 $322 4.54% 15.24
Queens $282,236 $346 4.23% 15.69 $227,133 $296 4.98% 13.46
Multifamily Month In Review | New York City
7 | Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2405 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc
ABOUT ARIEL PROPERTY ADVISORS
EXCLUSIVE MARKET REPORTS ASSET EVALUATIONS
INVESTMENT SALES, INVESTMENT RESEARCH & CAPITAL SERVICES QUALITY BROKERAGE SERVICES
Ariel Property Advisors is a commercial real estate services and advisory company located in New York City.
Our company is unique to the industry in that it is structured like an investment bank, with separate divisions for investment sales, capital services and research. This strategic approach to commercial brokerage services allows our professionals to deploy greater resources and provide consistent, seamless execution to every transaction.
We cover all major commercial asset types throughout the New York metropolitan area, but maintain a very sharp focus on multifamily, mixed-use, development, commercial and industrial properties.
From consultation through closing, our professionals are dedicated to achieving optimal results for our clients. Combining the insights of veteran brokers with the latest real estate market intelligence, we find solutions that meet the specific needs of both the client and the asset.
Cultivating long-lasting relationships with the real estate community is essential to the success of both our firm and our cli-ents, so we encourage all market participants to use our company as a resource.
Contact us today for Asset Evaluations, listing information, financing opportunities or our latest market reports.
The information contained herein has either been given to us by the owner of the property or obtained from sources that we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt its accuracy but we do not guarantee the accuracy of any information provided herein. As an example, all zoning information, buildable footage estimates and indicated uses must be independently verified. Vacancy factors used herein are an arbitrary percentage used only as an example, and does not necessarily relate to actual vacancy, if any. The value of this prospective investment is dependent upon these estimates and assumptions made above, as well as the investment income, the tax bracket, and other factors which your tax advisor and/or legal counsel should evaluate. The prospective buyer should care-fully verify each item of income, and all other information contained herein. November 18, 2016 3:06 PM
OUR METHODOLOGY
The multifamily transactions included in the analysis occurred at a mini-mum sales price of $1 million, with a minimum gross area of 5,000 square feet and with a minimum of 10 units. Our estimated sales statistics reflect all data available on public records and through other sources we deem reliable.
TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS CONSIDERED:Transactions in which there was a transfer of ownership and deed docu-ment recorded on ACRIS were considered. Data is collected form public sources and other sources we deem reliable.
LOCATION DEFINITIONS:Manhattan - South of East 96th Street, South of West 110th StreetNorthern Manhattan - North of East 96th Street, North of West 110th StreetThe Bronx - Bronx BoroughBrooklyn - Brooklyn BoroughQueens - Queens Borough
Whether you are considering selling your building or you just want to know the current market value of your property, we are available to provide you with a complimentary asset evaluation. Produced by the joint efforts of our investment sales and investment research teams, an Asset Evaluation will provide you with a thorough analysis of your investment property, and will detail our future marketing efforts on your behalf.
COMPLIMENTARY ASSET EVALUATIONPlease call us at 212.544.9500 to request an Asset Evaluation
COMPILED BY:
If you would like to use or quote this report on the web, we ask that you quote the source as “Multifamily Month In Review: New York City by Ariel Property Advisors” and link report from our website page (http://arielpa.nyc/research/reports/)
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Ivan Petrovic Aryeh Orlofsky Spencer [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
David Baruch Brett Campbell Katherine [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Lazar Jovovic Dusan Panic Stefan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
INVESTMENT SALES
Shimon Shkury x11 Victor Sozio x12 Michael A. Tortorici [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Jonathan Berman x20 Scot Hirschfield x16 Howard Raber [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Daniel Wechsler x44 Mark Spinelli x35 Daniel Tropp [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Jason Gold x22 Marko Agbaba x32 Joshua Berkowitz [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Alexander McGee x54 Joshua Kwilecki x51 Jesse Greshin [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Matthew Gillis x42 Michael George x5138 Orry Michael [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Christopher Gillis x1045 Alexander McGee x54 [email protected] [email protected]