east region | colliers international - charlotte...forecast report charlotte q3 2016 | multifamily...

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Research & Forecast Report

CHARLOTTEQ3 2016 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Effective Rent Per Unit $993 $1,000 $1,027 $1,041 $1,045 $929 $979 $1,026 $1,056 $1,091 $1,136 $1,171

Per Sq. Ft $1.03 $1.04 $1.06 $1.08 $1.08 $0.96 $1.01 $1.06 $1.09 $1.13 $1.18 $1.21

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 5.5% 6.0% 4.8% 4.0% 3.5% 3.4% 5.4% 4.8% 3.0% 3.2% 4.1% 3.1%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.8% 0.7% 2.7% 1.4%

Occupancy Rate 95.6% 95.2% 95.9% 95.8% 95.7% 94.8% 95.4% 95.6% 94.8% 95.2% 95.6% 95.0%

Occupancy Change - Annually 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% -0.8% 0.3% 0.4% -0.6%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.2% -0.3% 0.7% -0.1%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-4.56 $-5.71 $-3.98 $-3.92 $-4.50 $-5.15 $-4.32

As a % of Asking Rent -0.5% -0.6% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.6% -0.4%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 3Q16 Annual Forecast

2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Total Units Absorbed 4,502 6,169 6,950 8,787 274,353 9,159 5,367 5,759 4,024 3,409

New Supply 4,825 5,772 6,249 9,542 367,859 9,904 7,138 4,718 3,826 5,196

Inventory Growth 2.3% 3.4% 4.1% 4.8% 1.4% 5.4% 4.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.4%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual August-16 Annual Forecast

2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Employment (000s) 1,028.6 1,065.6 1,104.6 1,133.1 144,424.0 1,131.5 1,156.8 1,177.7 1,201.2 1,227.1

Job Gain (000s) 25.3 37.1 38.9 28.6 2,451.0 26.9 25.3 21.0 23.5 25.9

Job Growth (%) 2.5% 3.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2%

Total Residential Permitting 16,139 17,812 18,790 17,404 1,056,185 18,373 20,564 22,045 24,750 21,085

Relative Change 23.1% 10.4% 5.5% 1.9% 2.3% -2.2% 11.9% 7.2% 12.3% -14.8%

Single Family Units Permitted 10,378 11,157 11,742 11,352 658,713

Relative Change 37.3% 7.5% 5.2% 8.3% 9.1%

Multifamily Units Permitted 5,590 6,510 6,861 6,022 368,231

Relative Change 4.2% 16.5% 5.4% -5.4% -8.2%

Multifamily as a % of Total 34.6% 36.5% 36.5% 34.6% 34.9%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.3 3.6 3.5 2.7 4.1

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 4.7 6.6 6.0 4.5 6.1

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 2.6% in August 2016, reflecting 28,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.7%.

Axiometrics forecasts Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.2% in 2017, with 25,291 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 2.0% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 23,458 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 7,023 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2016, up 162 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 19,712 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2016, an increase of 922 units from the prior year’s total.


IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of October 9, 2016, Axiometrics has identified 8,903 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, of which, 7,083 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 5,465 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,416 per unit, or $1.53 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,346, or $1.46 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-69.82. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,045 per unit ($1.08 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,041 per unit, or $1.08 per square foot, in 3Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-3.92.

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend

Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent

Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Fairview North 327 507 1,080 1,914 414 7 $1,661 $1.94 $1,541 $1.80

Harris Blvd/Mallard Creek Church Rd 497 414 968 1,879 681 17 $1,162 $1.16 $1,143 $1.14

Northwest Charlotte 743 499 986 2,228 421 23 $1,196 $1.21 $1,117 $1.13

Rock Hill 166 792 1,197 2,155 499 12 $1,173 $1.05 $1,158 $1.04

West - Charlotte Airport 828 1,084 899 2,811 646 16 $1,490 $1.75 $1,406 $1.65

Other 3,137 2,169 3,773 9,079 2,741 12 $1,460 $1.59 $1,383 $1.51

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 5,698 5,465 8,903 20,066 5,402 12 $1,420 $1.54 $1,348 $1.46*Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period

“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.”

Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management


PIPELINE MAP

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PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsLease Up1 Ardmore King's Grant Lease Up Ardmore Residential 9015 Kings Grant Dr Mallard Creek-Withrow

Dow294

2 Berkshire Dilworth Lease Up Berkshire Group 1351 E Morehead St Dilworth 2963 Camden Gallery Lease Up Camden Property Trust 1750 Camden Rd Wilmore 3234 University House BLVD Lease Up Canada Pension Plan Investment

Board9825 University City Blvd Harris-Houston 300

5 Apartments at Brayden Lease Up Charter Properties, Inc. 1027 Aubrey Ln Outlying York County 2706 Solis Waverly Lease Up Childress Klein Properties 6101 Ardrey Kell Rd Providence Estates East 2677 Cedar Flats Lease Up Delray Ventures, LLC 225 N Cedar St Fourth Ward 828 Legacy Concord - Phase I Lease Up Goldberg Companies, Inc. 5020 Avent Dr NW Cabarrus Country Club 1879 M Station Lease Up Goode Properties 6215 Forest Way Dr East Forest 26010 SkyHouse Uptown Lease Up Grubb Properties 640 N Church St Fourth Ward 33611 Allure Lease Up JLB Partners, LP 5720 Carnegie Blvd Barclay Downs 35012 Midtown 205 Lease Up Lennar Multifamily Investors LLC 205 S Kings Dr Cherry 26113 The Lofts at Charleston Row -

Phase IILease Up New Forum, Inc. 2025 Ayrsley Town Blvd Outer South Charlotte 132

14 The Village at Commonwealth Phase II

Lease Up Northwood Investors LLC 2426 McClintock Rd Commonwealth 196

15 5115 Park Place Lease Up Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 5115 Park Rd Madison Park 27316 Fountains Matthews Lease Up Proffitt Dixon Partners 10624 Parrish St Outer East Charlotte 25817 Silver Collection at The Park Lease Up Silver Companies 13816 Boren St Outer Huntersville/Cornel 12018 Encore Southpark Lease Up Simpson Property Group 6205 Morrison Blvd Barclay Downs 28019 Solis Dilworth Lease Up Terwilliger Pappas 1010 Kenilworth Ave Dilworth 18320 Loft 135 Lease Up The NRP Group, LLC - Property

Management135 W Morehead St Third Ward 298

21 Circa Uptown Lease Up The Prudential Insurance Company of America

360 S Graham St Third Ward 243

22 One 305 Central Lease Up TriBridge Residential 1305 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 24723 Crescent SouthPark Lease Up UBS Realty Investors LLC 5725 Carnegie Blvd Barclay Downs 32124 The Mercury NoDa Lease Up Woodfield Investments 3310 N Davidson St North Charlotte 24125 Woodfield Northlake Lease Up Woodfield Investments 8524 Mason Andrew Way Northlake 310

Units 6,328

Under Construction26 The Lofts at NC Music Factory Under Construction ARK Group 630 Music Factory Blvd Lockwood 20527 The Residence at Tailrace

MarinaUnder Construction Arnold Companies 1001 Marina Village Dr Outlying Gaston County 192

28 Beckett Farms Under Construction Beckett Farms Apartments LLC 645 Gold Hill Rd Outlying York County 28029 Millcrest Park - Phase II Under Construction Blue Ridge Companies 208 Sedgewick Dr Outlying York County 10030 Copus 1 Indian Trail Under Construction Bonterra Builders, LLC 1021 Glenn Valley Ln Union County 20431 Solis Waverly Phase II Under Construction Childress Klein Properties 6101 Ardrey Kell Rd Providence Estates East 10832 Crescent NoDa Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 424 E 36th St North Charlotte 34433 Crescent Stonewall Station Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 400 E Stonewall St Second Ward 45934 Sovereign at Belgate Under Construction Davis Development 8075 Ikea Blvd Mineral Springs 26635 Solis Berewick Under Construction Dixie River Land Company, LLC 4913 Dixie River Rd Dixie-Berryhill 27536 1010 West Trade Under Construction Dominion Realty Partners, LLC W Trade & N Sycamore St Fourth Ward 29737 Midwood Station Under Construction DPJ Residential 2007 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 9738 District South Under Construction Flournoy Companies 12600 District South Dr Ballantyne 39739 Legacy Concord - Phase II Under Construction Goldberg Companies, Inc. 5020 Avent Dr NW Cabarrus Country Club 16140 Ascent Uptown Under Construction Greystar Real Estate Partners 225 N Poplar St Fourth Ward 30041 Revere at Lake Wylie - Phase II Under Construction Gross Builders 1001 Wylie Springs Cir Outlying York County 22842 Aspire SouthPark Under Construction Grubb Properties 345 Sharon Township Ln Myers Park 36743 SkyHouse Uptown - Tower II Under Construction Grubb Properties 601 N Tryon St Fourth Ward 33644 Tenth Street Apartments and

DeckUnder Construction Levine Properties, Inc. 707 N Brevard St First Ward 200


45 The Dillon Under Construction Lincoln Property Company 905 Kenilworth Ave Dilworth 37946 The Lexington Dilworth Under Construction Marsh Euclid Apartments, LLC 1106 Euclid Ave Dilworth 23447 Holly Crest - Phase II Under Construction Northwood Ravin 16408 Holly Crest Ln Outer Huntersville/Cornel 11248 Solis Southline Under Construction Pappas Properties, LLC 2500-2522 South Blvd Dilworth 31349 The Gibson Under Construction Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1000 Central Ave Elizabeth 25050 Silver Collection at The Park -

Phase IIUnder Construction Silver Companies 13816 Boren St Outer Huntersville/Cornel 212

51 Palisades at Belmont - Phase II Under Construction Southwood Realty Company 1011 Palisades Dr Outlying Gaston County 14952 The Abbey Under Construction Spectrum Properties 1415 Abbey Pl Madison Park 26053 Solis Ballantyne Under Construction Terwilliger Pappas 9550 Community

Commons LnBallantyne 194

54 CampusWorks - Plaza Midwood Under Construction The Carlyle Group 1205 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 34955 Horizons at Steele Creek Under Construction The Carroll Companies 10526 Steele Creek Rd Steele Creek 28856 The Villas at Regal Manor Under Construction Villas At Regent Park LLC 8332 Regent Pky Outlying York County 14457 Museum Tower Apartments Under Construction Wells Fargo & Company 525 S Church St Third Ward 39458 1919 E Seventh Under Construction White Edward A 1930 E 7th St Elizabeth 9159 2600 W Arrowood Rd Under Construction Whitehall Development LLLP 2600 W Arrowood Rd Olde Whitehall 96

Units 8,281

Proposed60 6010 Piedmont Row Dr S Proposed American Asset Corporation 6010 Piedmont Row Dr S Beverly Woods 40061 West Morehead Lofts Proposed ArchCo Residential 1331 W Morehead St Wesley Heights 28762 Morehead St & Kenilworth Proposed Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. Morehead St & Kenilworth Dilworth 38063 Crescent Providence Farm Proposed Bahakel Communications 11355 Providence Rd Providence Estates East M 39464 1931 Salome Church Rd Proposed Blue Ridge Companies 1931 Salome Church Rd Mallard Creek-Withrow

Dow228

65 West Mallard Creek Church Road Apartments

Proposed Browder Group Real Estate, LLC W Mallard Creek Church Rd

Mallard Creek-Withrow Dow

395

66 Hazel SouthPark Proposed Cec-bda-ii Partners, LLC 4401 Barclay Downs Dr Barclay Downs 26667 Rodden Square Apartments Proposed Connelly Builders 6520 Mallard Creek Rd Mineral Springs 9868 500 W Trade St Proposed Crosland 500 W Trade St Fourth Ward 40069 University City Apartments Proposed Development Advisors, Inc. 6801 N Tryon St Hidden Valley 37670 1924 E 7th St Proposed Faison & Associates, LLC 1924 E 7th St Elizabeth 12571 2205 Dunavant St Proposed Faison & Associates, LLC 2205 Dunavant St Brookhill 36872 The Yards at Arrowood Station Proposed Gvest Capital 7600 South Blvd Outer South Charlotte 24573 The Lofts at Hawthorne Mill Proposed Hml Ii LLC 1101 Hawthorne Ln Belmont 15074 2715 N Davidson St Proposed Martin Newton D 2715 N Davidson St North Charlotte 14775 The Walden Proposed My Niche - The Walden 1700 Abbey Pl Madison Park 13076 Northwood Ravin Proposed Northwood Ravin 500 E Stonewall St Dilworth 40077 Stonewall Mixed Use Proposed Northwood Ravin 510 E Stonewall St Dilworth 42178 Scaleybark Station Proposed Pappas Properties, LLC 3610 South Blvd York Road 44079 Parkwood Avenue Apartments Proposed Parkwood Station Land LLC 1708 N Brevard St Optimist Park 33580 Capital Crossing at Whitehall Proposed Peggy S Harkey 14200 Brown Grier Rd Griers Fork 27181 New Bern Station Proposed Pepsi Bottling Ventures, LLC 2820 South Blvd Sedgefield 42382 Towne Centre Apartment

HomesProposed R. Dean Harrell 100 Plyler Rd Union County 378

83 Design Center Charlotte Proposed Ram Realty Services 100 W Worthington Ave Wilmore 29684 NoDa at 27th Proposed Ram Realty Services 2300 N Davidson St Villa Heights 25085 Riverbend Multi-Family Proposed Schulman & Beard Commercial RE 3822 Mt Holly-Huntersville

RdMountain Island 500

86 Bainbridge South End Proposed The Bainbridge Companies 175 Poindexter Dr Sedgefield 20087 Rea Farms Apartments Proposed The Rea Family 11500 Providence Rd Providence Crossing 50088 1351 E Woodlawn Rd Proposed Thomas P III & Betty Q Moore 1351 E Woodlawn Rd Ashbrook-Clawson Village 26589 801 McNinch Proposed Tribute Companies 801 McNinch St Third Ward 21290 Pinnacle Point Proposed WaterWalk 8515 University Executive

Park DrMineral Springs 138

PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market Units


Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Sep-16 Lodge at Mallard Creek 7808 Mallard Creek Rd Charlotte 264 1998 34,279,000 129,845

Sep-16 Thornberry 9920 Brickleberry Ln Charlotte 288 1999 42,000,000 145,833

Sep-16 Colonial Village at Greystone 9610 Stoney Glen Dr Charlotte 408 1998 / 2000 30,250,000 74,142

Sep-16 CV at Stone Point Apartments 10900 Point South Dr Charlotte 192 1986 / 1991 19,500,000 101,563

Sep-16 Vanguard Northlake 11011 Northlake Landing Dr Huntersville 204 2015 31,644,998 155,123

Sep-16 Somerstone At Winding Trails 7139 Winding Cedar Trl Charlotte 360 1983 / 1989 24,099,920 66,944

Aug-16 University Crossings Charlotte 9010 University City Blvd Charlotte 187 2013 40,000,000 213,904

Aug-16 Alpha Mill (Phase I) 220 Alpha Mill Ln Charlotte 167 2007 51,925,000 310,928

Aug-16 Whitehall Parc 8024 Whitehall Executive Center Charlotte 298 2013 51,199,992 171,812

Jul-16 Parkhaven 5831 Reddman Rd Charlotte 112 1979 5,250,000 46,875

Jul-16 Montclaire Estates 8512 Lodge South Cir Charlotte 301 1974 / 2005 20,500,000 68,106

Jul-16 Parkwood East 7108 Wallace Rd Charlotte 128 1984 7,150,000 55,859

Jul-16 Fern Forest Apartments 1024 Ashwood Ct Gastonia 184 1963 / 2012 8,220,000 44,674

Jul-16 Magnolia Terrace 8300 Paces Oaks Charlotte 264 1989 24,000,000 90,909

Jul-16 Vista Villa 6309 Montego Dr Charlotte 238 1971 12,375,024 51,996

PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market Units

91 Montage Proposed Wedgewood Properties LLC 650 E Stonewall St Dilworth 30292 North Community House

ResidencesProposed William Trotter Development 6915 Endhaven Ln Whiteoak 200

93 Prosperity Church Apartments Proposed Wood Partners 2934 Ridge Rd Davis Lake-Eastfield 29294 Carver Cove Apartments Proposed Diannon Development Group, LLC 2619 Carver Cove Ln West Blvd 10995 Fountains at Ballantyne Proposed Proffitt Dixon Partners 12135 N Community House

RdWhiteoak 245

96 Granite Pointe Apartments Proposed Pedcor Investments 9101 Nations Ford Rd Outer South Charlotte 19897 The Haven at Regent Park Proposed TBC Property Management, LLC 5055 Regent Pky Outlying York County 288

Units 11,052

Total Units 25,661

RECENT SALES


OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings

WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

30,000MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.0B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES

Oaktree ApartmentsDurham, NCUnits: 24

Sommerset PlaceRaleigh, NCUnits: 144

Falcon Pointe ApartmentsWinston Salem, NCUnits: 120

Crest at ElonElon, NCUnits: 42

Arbor TownhomesGreensboro, NCUnits: 150

Arlington West ApartmentsJacksonville, NCUnits: 324

Eagle PointDurham, NCUnits: 323

Teal PointCharlotte, NCUnits: 216

Taylor Place ApartmentsChocowinity, NCUnits: 40

Wolf Creek ApartmentsRaleigh, NCUnits: 385

Oakview TerraceHigh Point, NCUnits: 150

Geneva Park ApartmentsCary, NCUnits: 248

Park PlaceRaleigh, NCUnits: 20

Land SaleCharlotte, NCAcres: 25.8

Land SaleCharlotte, NCAcres: 17.245


WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP

[email protected] +1 404 877 9285

Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 404 978 2337

AT YOUR SERVICE

east region | colliers international - charlotte...forecast report charlotte q3 2016 | multifamily...

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