Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat

in the North Pacific and Bering Sea

Edward Gregr, SciTech Consulting, Vancouver BC

John Ford, DFO, Nanaimo, BC

Randall Reeves, Okapi Wildlife Associates, St. Anne, PQ

Robert Brownell Jr., SWFSC, Monterey, CA

Phil Clapham, AFSC, Seattle WA

Anchorage, January 24, 2007

Objectives

• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS

• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey

• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Objectives

• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS

• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey

• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Historic whaling records

Townsend (1935) data

N = 7606

Data courtesy Wildlife Conservation Society

Independent variables?

• RW data are 150 years old … predictors need to have remained relatively constant

• Bathymetry and derivatives• Large scale ocean features (Alaskan gyre,

transition zone, Bering Sea fronts)• Coarse scale study:

– 50 x 50 km– seasonal

Large scale ocean features

i.e., wind speed

Yi Chao, unpublished data

50 x 50 km ROMS circulation model• 1950 to 2004• Seasonal climatologies = long term averages

Whaling record analysis

• Presence-only correlation analysis

• Predictions of suitable habitat

• Depends critically on selection of independent variables

• The first scale in the multi-scale analysis

Objectives

• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS

• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey

• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Right whale prey

• Skim feeding copepod specialist, though also feeds at bottom boundary layer

• NA and NP right whale very similar animals, but do they have similar feeding habits?

Mackas and Coyle, 2005

Shelf vs. open ocean

Zooplankton community composition and species differences in size may require

different foraging strategies.

Shelf vs. open ocean

Mackas and Coyle, 2005

Processes – an example

Crawford et al. 2005

• Meso-scale eddies are now understood to be an important component of oceanic production

Mean [Chl-a] within eddy waters (blue) compared to non-eddy waters (green)

Processes - eddies

Crawford et al. 2005

Objectives

• Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS

• Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey

• Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Multi-scale analysis

1st scale:- NP; 50 km; seasonal- Yankee whaling data- bathymetry; long-term

oceanography

2nd scale:- BS/NEP; 10 km; monthly- 20th century sightings- bathymetry; monthly

oceanography

3rd scale:- regional; 1 km; weekly- 21st century zooplankton- RS data

Deliverables

• Identify and describe areas of high historic abundance (i.e., hotspots)

• Extensive GIS-compatible bio-physical data

• Mechanistic description of concentration and retention processes in the North Pacific and Bering Sea

• Predictions of contemporary foraging habitat for right whales

Proposed Critical Habitat forNorth Pacific right whales

Acknowledgements

• Funded by the North Pacific Research Board• Phil Clapham and Bob Brownell for the groundwork• Dave Mackas, Lisa Eisner, and Jeff Napp for support

with plankton component• Yi Chao, Al Hermann, Georgina Gibson for support

with physical oceanography

Photo: Marilyn Marx

Questions, comments:ed@scitechconsulting.com

BASIS Stations

Courtesy Lisa Eisner, NMFS

Sampled 2000 - 2006

IOS/OSAP Plankton data

calanoid copepodsabundance/m3