moving to all-mail electionspfd automatic voter registration ballot initiative passed in 2016...

MOVING TO ALL-MAIL ELECTIONS: PROMISES AND CHALLENGESMAY 20, 2020

SPEAKERS

Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Alaska

Charles Stewart, MIT Jacqueline De León, Native American Rights Fund

HOUSEKEEPING

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Election Policy in Alaska

Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Overview

● Election Policy Work Group formed in 2015

● PFD automatic voter registration ballot initiative passed in 2016

● Anchorage held its first municipal vote-by-mail election in 2018

● HB 150, vote-by-mail bill, introduced in 2019

● In 2020, a COVID-19 emergency response bill authorized the lieutenant governor to conduct a by-mail election

● On May 15, 2020, Lt. Gov. Meyer announced that the August primary will not be administered by mail

Election Policy Work Group (EPWG)

● Established in 2015 by former Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott

● Focus: modernizing voting equipment, automatic voter registration, vote by mail, and a handful of other election issues

● Revamped in 2019 by Lt. Gov. Meyer under the Dunleavy administration

● Only one meeting held since 2019; no progress; no defined future plans

HB 150, vote-by-mail bill

● Introduced in 2019 as a placeholder bill

● A new draft, modeled off of Colorado’s system, is being introduced during a House State Affairs committee meeting… yesterday! (19 May 2020)

Vote-by-mail in Anchorage

2015: The Anchorage Assembly directed the Anchorage clerk’s office to explore alternative voting options.

2015-2018: The clerk’s office created a stakeholder group to involve the public in the discussion of VBM. The group eventually had a diverse group of 50 members.

The group determined that VBM could increase voter participation and save community resources.

The clerk’s office and Anchorage Assembly worked to update the municipal code, find space to administer elections, collaborate with the State for forer information, purchase new equipment and software, train a workforce to administer VBM, and conduct community outreach.

Vote-by-mail in Anchorage

2018: The first vote-by-mail election was held in Anchorage. A record breaking number of voters participated in the election.

Politics of elections policy in Alaska

● Anchorage’s vote-by-mail system has been mostly viewed as a success

● Still, there has not been a broad, nuanced discussion of vote by mail in Alaska

● Lt. Gov. Meyer had expressed openness and interest in the concept, though his decision last Friday throws that into doubt

● With the WH messaging and statements from LG Meyer, possible partisan tropes perhaps taking root

Promises and Pitfalls of All-Mail Elections

Charles Stewart III

MIT Political Science DepartmentMay 20, 2020

http://healthyelection.org

First, Two Definitions

+ Vote-by-Mail (or Vote-at-Home): A system by which the state or local election jurisdiction automatically sends a ballot to every voter (usually active voters only) on the voter registration list.

+ Expanded mail balloting: The increased use of vote-by-mail provisions in state law, either due to spontaneous voter behavior or encouragement from government officials, or both.

The Promises

+ In the Midst of COVID-19+ Preserve public health+ Preserve access to the ballot+ Preserve turnout

+ At other times+ Cost savings+ Increase turnout—slightly in general elections, more in primaries, the most in

low-visibility local elections (tax levies, annexations, etc.)+ Potentially increase citizenship knowledge and engagement.+ More accurate voter lists

The Pitfalls

+ In the Midst of COVID-19+ Organizational disruption+ Supply chain issues+ Workplace issues (workers and space)+ Poor listsmisdirected / returned ballots

+ At all times*+ “Leakage” in the mail ballot pipeline+ Residual votes+ Election legitimacy

*These pertain to mail balloting generally.

Promises: Preserving Public Health


XX XX XX XX X

Promises: Preserve Access to the Ballot

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/03/most-voters-say-postponing-presidential-primaries-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-has-been-necessary/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/03/most-voters-say-postponing-presidential-primaries-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-has-been-necessary/

Promises: Preserve Turnout

Source: https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/Elections/absentee-voting-Slides-Webinar.pdf

https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/Elections/absentee-voting-Slides-Webinar.pdf

More Typical Selling Points

+ Cost savings+ Increase turnout—slightly in general elections, more in primaries, the

most in low-visibility local elections (tax levies, annexations, etc.)+ Potentially increase citizenship knowledge and engagement.+ More accurate voter lists

The Pitfalls

The Pitfalls

+ In the Midst of COVID-19+ Organizational disruption+ Supply chain issues+ Workplace issues (workers and space)+ Poor listsmisdirected / returned ballots

+ At all times*+ “Leakage” in the mail ballot pipeline+ Residual votes+ Election legitimacy

*These pertain to mail balloting generally.

The VBM/VAH States Adjusted Gradually and/or from a High base

Data source: NCSL

31%45%

6%18%

• Signature Verification Technology• Automated Envelope Extractors• Automated Ballot Scanners• Vote Tally Software

• Staff Retraining• Ballot Materials & Design Services• Hiring Temporary Staff• VBM Processing Automated Envelope Sorters & Scanners• Expanded Processing Facilities• Protective & Sanitation Equipment

• Website Design Services• Expanded Cyberprotection Services• Vote-by-Mail Request Materials• Voter Signature Database Software

• Postage Costs• Ballot Materials & Design Services• Ballot Drop-Boxes• Language Translation Services

• Hiring Temporary Staff• Expanded Warehouse / Processing Facilities

Outbound Ballots

Signature Verification & Ballot Counting

• Adjust Legal Rules & Deadlines Predicated on In-Person Voting• Site Expanded Facilities• Site Ballot Drop-Boxes• Candidate Certification• Estimate Numbers of Voters & Required Materials

• Design/Update Online Registration• Distribute Vote-by- Mail Request Forms• Clean Voter Address Lists• Know which Ballot, in which Language, goes to which Voter

• Ballot Design• Ballot Delivery• Election Mail Coordination with USPS• Ballot Tracking• Coordinate Assistance for Limited English Proficiency Voters and Voters with Disabilities• Contact Voters with Undeliverable Ballots

• Ballot Drop-Box Collection• USPS Ballot Pickup• Coordination with Neighboring Counties for Wayward Ballot Delivery• Ballot Envelope Sorting• Ballot Envelope Signature Scanning

• Signature Comparisons• Mismatched SIgnature Notification• Cure Procedures• Envelope Extraction• Ballot Tally• Ballot Status Reporting to Voters• Results Publication• Risk-limiting audits

The Vote-by-Mail Process

Thanks to Nate Persily, Stanford Law School

Pre-Election Preparations Voter Registration /Ballot Application

Outbound Ballots Inbound Ballot ProcessingProc

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ent &

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ffing

Proc

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es

The Pitfalls: “Leakage” in the Pipeline

Addressed by VBM/VAH

The Pitfalls: Residual Votes

+ Residual vote definition: An over- or under-vote for an office on a ballot+ Sources of residual votes

+ Abstention+ Voter error

+ Protections against residual votes since HAVA+ Ballot “kick-back” on scanners+ Screen warnings on DREs and BMDs

+ Residual vote penalty via mail balloting in CA:+ President: 2.2 percentage points+ Governor: 3.3 percentage points+ Senator: 4.9 percentage points+ Propositions: 3.0 percentage points.

The Pitfalls: Election Legitimacy

I am confident My Ballot Was Counted as Cast (2016)+ Vote-at-home states: 2016 (68%)+ Non-vote-at-home state: 2016 (64%)+ In-person voters in all other states: 2016 (66%)+ Mail voters in all other states: 2016 (57%)+ From 2016:

+ VAH states, returned in person: 73%+ VAH states, mailed back: 63%+ Non-VAH states, returned in person: 64%+ Non-VAH states, mailed back: 56%

Support for VBM/VAH Reform in 2016

+ VAH/VBM states: 62% support strongly or somewhat+ Non-VAH/VBM states: 24% support strongly or somewhat

+ Mail voters: 38% support strongly or somewhat

Some Words on Fraud

+ The good news+ Fraud, by any measure, is exceedingly rare, including absentee ballot fraud+ Voters in VAH states believe it is as rare as do voters in non-VAH states

Some Words on Fraud

+ The bad news+ There are more temptations for fraud in the mail mode than the in-person

mode.+ Though rare, absentee ballot fraud is “less rare” than in-person fraud.

Some Words on Fraud: Sideways Comments

+ One person’s bug is another person’s feature+ Family influence+ Ballot harvesting

+ Attention to security measures more important as the # of mail ballots increases

+ Signature matching+ Ballot tracking+ Regulation of ballot return

[email protected]

@cstewartiii

HealthyElections.org

ElectionLab.mit.edu

Vote By Mail: An Impossible Hurdle in Many Native American

Communities

NCSL Presentation Jacqueline De Leon, Staff Attorney, Native American Rights Fund

Increased Vote by Mail is Great!All Vote by Mail is Not Great! We must provide safe, in-person voting options, especially in rural and high poverty areas

Quick Takeaways:

Vote By Mail is Not a Panacea

For example: • Lower income and minority groups tend to move more often and suffer

from increased homelessness so have more trouble receiving a ballot• No Convenient Election Day Registration• Some persons with disabilities need touch screens and audio ballots

Native Americans Disenfranchised By Vote By Mail: A Closer Look

Throughout the country, many homes on reservations do not have addresses or have “non-traditional addresses” that do not use a street name. The postal service does not deliver to these homes, so many Native Americans cannot receive ballots at their homes. Countless Native Americans cannot safely vote from home and would be disenfranchised entirely by an all vote by mail system. County seats are prohibitively far – the nearest elections office from the Duckwater Reservation is an astounding 140 miles away

Not Just Impossible - Also Unreasonably Difficult to Vote By

Mail in Indian Country

A Housing Crisis: Homelessness, Over-crowding, Moving HomesThere is a severe housing crisis on reservations. It is not uncommon to have 15 people sharing a home. People move from couch to couch because they have no home of their own. Native Americans also suffer from disproportionately high rates of homelessness

In 2017, for the 11,000 members of the NorthernArapaho Tribe in Wyoming there were just 230reservation homes (averaging nearly 48 people perhome). 55% of tribal members were consideredhomeless because they are couch surfing

HUD found that if couch surfing did not occurin the Navajo Nation, between 42,000 and85,000 Navajo people living on tribal landswould be homeless

Precarious housing makes both voter registration and delivery of a mailed ballot difficult if not impossible

• Travel and an in-person interaction required to pick up and return ballot

• Post Offices are prohibitively far from Native communities (20 - 50 miles away)

• Rural Post Offices are open limited hours (Tuesday from 8AM-Noon)

• P.O. Boxes Require a Fee • P.O. Boxes Are Limited in Number

Rural Post Offices Do Not Substitute At Home Vote by Mail

Photo by Michael Gallacher/Missoulian

• Multiple people (10 +) are sharing a P.O. Box • One person will do a “mail-run” to minimize the

burden of travel • Mail will touch multiple hands• Long lapses between picking up and receiving mail• Circuitous mail routes mean long delivery times

Example: When voters on Navajo return theirballot, instead of going straight to the CoconinoCounty elections office in Flagstaff, it is routed through Phoenix

Non-Traditional MailingAddresses – Not Just Native Americans

The Census Bureau defines non-traditional mailing addresses as “noncity- styleaddresses,” such as “those that do not contain a house number and/or a streetname.” Examples include:

General deliveryRural route and box numberHighway contract route and box numberPost office box only delivery

Non-traditional mailing addresses also include:Location descriptions (House on the right past the red barn)Structure points (geographic coordinates)Census geographic codes such as state code, county code, census tract number, and

census block number

Solutions: In-person Voting

• In Person-Voting Options Must be Safe • Early voting options to minimize crowds • Curbside voting • PPE • Set-aside times for vulnerable and elder populations• Offer language assistance• Use tribal officials as elections officials and tribal

community members as poll workers to limit outside germs

• Mobile Voting Stations and Registration • Provide Access 20 miles from homes • Offer language assistance

Novel Solutions: Tribally Designated BuildingWashington, an all vote by mail state, utilizes triballydesignated buildings that allow tribal members to use atribal building to register, pick up, and drop off ballots

UPCOMING EVENTS IN THIS SERIES

May 27: Let’s Talk About Voting Outside the Polling Place (on Zoom)

Register here https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voting-outside-the-polling-place-webinar-series.aspx

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voting-outside-the-polling-place-webinar-series.aspx

Questions?

Rep. Kreiss-Tomkins: [email protected] Stewart: [email protected]

Jacqueline De León: [email protected]

NCSL Contacts:Wendy Underhill: [email protected]

Brian Hinkle: [email protected]