mortgage pass-through securities chapter 11. pass-through securities created when one or more...
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Mortgage Pass-Through Securities
Chapter 11
Pass-Through Securities
created when one or more mortgage holders form a collection (pool) of mortgages and sell shares (participation certificates) in the pool pass-throughs are then basis for other derivatives (CMOs
and stripped mortgage-backed securities) CFs come from mortgage pmts from pool of
mortgages timing differs from mortgage pmts amt differs from mortgage pmts – difference due to
servicing fees and other fees for guaranteeing issue CFs not known with certainty because of prepayments
WAC and WAM
WAC – weighted-average coupon weight mortgage rate of each mortgage in pool by
amt of mortgage outstanding WAM – weighted-average maturity
weighting remaining # of months to maturity for each loan in pool by amt of mortgage outstanding
Agency Pass-Throughs
Ginnie Mae Freddie Mac Fannie Mae types of guarantees
fully-modified PTs – timely pmt of principal and interest
modified PTs – guarantees interest and principal but only timely payment of interest
Agency Pass-Throughs
Ginnie Mae PTs guaranteed by full faith and credit of US
government essentially default risk free Ginnie Mae guarantees security referred to as
mortgage-backed security (MBS) fully modified pass-throughs only include mortgages guaranteed by Rural Housing
Service, Veteran’s Association, or Farmers Home Assoc.
Agency Pass-Throughs
Freddie Mac PTs their pass-through is called a participation certificate not guaranteed by US government but … modified pass-throughs Gold PC – introduced in 1990
fully modified PT eventually only PC that Freddie will issue
Fannie Mae PTs MBS not obligation of government because government-
sponsored agency not government agency fully modified pass-throughs
Non-Agency Pass-Throughs
issued by commercial banks, thrifts, and private conduits purchase nonconforming mortgages, pool, and
sell pass-throughs which have underlying pool as collateral
same thing as Agency except not guarantee of government
registered with SEC rated by same firms that rate debt
Credit Enhancements
rating companies consider type of property type of loan term of loan geographical dispersion of loan loan size purpose of loan
rating given but can be changed by credit enhancement (this has been key to growth of this type of security in market)
Credit Enhancements external
3rd party guarantees that provide first-loss protection against losses up to a point (say 10%)
bond insurance – same as muni bond insurance pool insurance – covers losses from defaults and foreclosures
usually for $ amt for life of pool some written so $ amt declines as pool seasons as long as
credit performance is better than expected ratings agencies approve
need additional insurance to cover losses from bankruptcy or fraud
rating of 3rd party must be at least as high as rating sought*
Credit Enhancements
internal – may change CFs even with no default reserve funds
cash – deposits of cash generated from issuance proceeds excess spread accounts – allocation of excess spread or cash
into separate reserve account after paying net coupon overcollateralization
principal amt of issue < principal amt of pool of loans senior/subordinate structure – most widely used
subordinate class absorbs all losses up to amt in class subordinate class has higher yield shifting interest structure – redirects prepayments from
subordinate class to senior class according to given schedule (want to maintain insurance)
Prepayment
value of any security is what? issue for PTs why?
prepayment speed CF yield – yield calculated based on projected CF
prepayment conventions FHA experience – no longer used since
prepayment rates are related to interest rate cycle conditional prepayment rate PSA prepayment benchmark
Conditional Prepayment Rate
single-monthly mortality rate CPR is annual so convert
to monthly rate to find amt of monthly prepayments
SMM rate and prepayment assume that
approximately x% of remaining balance prepays at beginning of month
12/1)1(1 CPRSMM
PSA Prepayment Benchmark
Public Securities Association (PSA) benchmark expressed as monthly series of annual prepmt rates assumes prepayment rate increases as loans become
more seasoned assumes following CPRs for 30-year mortgages
CPR of 0.2% for 1st month and increased by 0.2% per year each month for next 30 months
6% CPR per year for remaining years benchmark referred to as 100 PSA
if t<= 30, CPR = 6%(t/30) if t>30, CPR = 6%
PSA Benchmark
50 PSA – assuming prepayment rate of half the CPR of the benchmark
150 PSA – rate 1.5 times CPR of PSA benchmark
SMM for month 5 assuming 100 PSA CPR = 6%(5/30) = 1%
= 0.000837
12/1)01.01(1 SMM
Monthly CF Construction
assume underlying mortgages are fixed-rate level payment with WAC = 8.125% pass-through rate is 7.5% and WAM of 357
months assume 100 PSA in second example, assume 165 PSA
Prepayment Models
models statistical relationships among factors expected to affect prepayments
models used to view borrowers as generic more data available now so models are more
complex models differ for agency and nonagency MBS
book presents models developed by Bear Stearns
Agency Prepayment Models
not as much data available on individual loans so models done at “pool” level
components in Bear Stearns model housing turnover – existing home sales
family relocation due to changes in employment and family status (change in family size, divorce)
trade-up and trade-down activity due to changes in interest rates, income, and home prices
insensitive to level of mortgage rates cash-out refinancing rate/term refinancing
Agency Prepayment Models
cash-out refinancing refinancing by borrower in order to monetize the price
appreciation of the property depends on increase in housing prices in region where
property is located favorable tax law regarding capital gains adds incentives to
monetize price appreciation (exempts gains up to $500,000)
may be economical even if mortgage rates are rising and with transaction costs
cash-out refinancing is tied to housing prices and insensitive to mortgage rates
Agency Prepayment Models
rate/term refinancing means borrower has gotten new mortgage on same
property to save either on interest cost or shortening life of mortgage with no increase in the monthly payment
decision whether or not to refinance is due to PV of $ interest savings from lower rate after subtracting estimated costs to refinance
proxy for rate/term refinancing for model: difference between prevailing rate and note rate – not good
proxy better on is refinancing ratio – note rate to current rate WAC is numerator ratio < 1 – note rate less than current so no incentive to
refinance ratio > 1 – some incentive possibly to refinance
Housing Turnover in Agency Prepayment Models factors used by Bear Stearns
seasoning effect – (see graph on next slide) idea is that you must recognize the homeowner’s tenure in the
house – may not be same as age of loan because of possible refinancing
housing price appreciation effect over time LTV of home changes due to either amortization of
loan or change in value of home – incentive to refinance if value of home goes up
need to estimate prepayments due to housing appreciation Bear Stearns used Home Appreciation Index (HPI) – (see
slide) seasonality effect
home buying increases in spring and peaks in late summer – buying declines in fall and winter – prepayments follow similar pattern but may lag a bit with peak closer to early fall
Bear Stearns Baseline HTO Prepayments for Agency MBS
Effect of Housing Price Appreciation of Agency Prepayments
Cash-Out Refinancing
driven by price appreciation since loan origination – need proxy for this Bear Stearns uses HPI see slide to show cash-out refinancing incentives for 4
assumed rates of appreciation according to Bear Stearns model, projected prepayments
due to cash-out refinancing exist for all ratios greater than 0.6 prepayments increase as the ratios increase the greater the price appreciation for a given ratio, the greater
the projected prepayments
Effect of Housing Price Appreciation on Cash-Out Refinancing on Agency Prepayments
Rate/Term Refinancing Component decision to refinance not based totally on note rate
relative to current rate S-curve for prepayments
if totally based on ratio, why does curve flatten out (or prepayment rate flatten out) because borrowers left in pool can not get refinancing or some
have other reasons why refinancing does not make sense S-curve not sufficient for modeling rate/term refinancing –
ignores 2 things that affect decision: burnout effect – Bear Stearns use some pool variables as
proxies: original term, loan purpose, WAC rate, weighted average loan age,
loan size, rate premium over benchmark, yield curve slope (see slide)
threshold media effect
Baseline Refinancing Function for Bear Stearns’ Agency Prepayment Model for an “Ordinary” Pool of Agency Borrowers
original loan of $125,000, age of 12 months, no rate premium at origination, no prior option to refinance, 3.5% annual home price appreciation
Baseline S-Curve for Agency Borrowers Based on Loan Amount
shows model’s S-curves for $25,000 loan size increments – relative to loans with balances less than$100,000, loan balances that exceed $150,000 are about 1.5 to 2.5 times more sensitive to refinancing
Nonagency Prepayment Models same components as in Agency models
but more info. on these loans so prepayment model estimated for each type of loan (rather than for pool of loans)
Bear Stearns gives projected prepayment rates based on size of loan rate premium documentation occupancy status current LTV
Baseline Projected Prepayment Rate Across a Range of Refinancing Incentives for 3 Loan Types
Cash Flow for Nonagency PTs CFs not affected by default and delinquency
for agency PTs PSA has issued a standardized benchmark
for default rates SDA benchmark gives annual default rate for
a mortgage pool as a function of the seasoning of the mortgages can use multiples of default rate similar to
prepayment benchmark – so can have 200 SDA
Cash Flow Yield
rate that makes the PV of expected CF equal to the price bond-equivalent yield
market convention for annualizing yield on fixed-income security that pays interest more than once a year
found by doubling a semi-annual yield semi-annual yield for PT is
semiannual cash flow yield = (1 + y M)6 – 1
where yM is monthly interest rate that equates PV of projected monthly CF to price of PT
bond-equivalent yield = 2[(1 + yM)6 – 1] must specifiy underlying prepayment assumption to realize this yield, investor must reinvest CFs at yield, investor
must hold PT until all mortgages paid off, and assumed prepayment rate must actually occur so be careful in placing too much confidence in yields!
Average Life
average life of MBS average time to receipt of principal payments
(scheduled and prepayments) weighted by amount of principal expected
average life depends on prepayment assumption
Prepayment Risk
assume you buy 10% coupon GNMA with market rates of 10% assume rates in market fall to 6% consequences?? - contraction risk
price increase but not as large as increase for option-free bond negative convexity
CF reinvested at lower rate assume rates rise to 15% - extension risk
price of PT falls but will fall more because rate increase slows down rate of prepayments
problem for investor is this is exact time that they want rate of prepayments to increase so they have money to reinvest at higher market rate of 15%
Asset / Liability Management
PTs unattractive to some institutions depository institutions exposed to extension risk when they
invest – they want to lock in spread over cost of funds – PT is longer term than their liabilities
life insurance companies are exposed to extension risk when using PTs – they might issue 4 year GIC – problem is uncertainty about CF from PTs that they will receive to have to pay off GIC
pension fund is exposed to contraction risk using PTs – they have long-term liabilities and want to lock in current rates – exposed to risk that prepayments will speed up and maturity of investments will shorten (happens when rates fall) and they will have to reinvest prepayments at lower rate
Secondary Market Trading
quoted same manner as Treasuries 94-05 means 94 and 5/32nds of par or
94.15625% of par PTs identified by pool prefix and pool number
prefix tells type of PT – 20 for Freddie Mac PC means underlying pool of conventional mortgages with original maturity of 15 years
prefix of AR for GNMAs means ARMs pool number tells specific mortgages underlying
PT and issuer of PT