monthly report may 2018 - aljazira capital · monthly report may 2018 saudi arabia | saudi stock...

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Monthly Report May 2018

Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018

TASI Movement During April

TASI ended the month at 8208.87 points, a 4.3%MoM increase and a rise of 13.6%YTD. Total value traded

stood at SAR 107.97bn. Basic Materials and Banks sectors accounted for 52.86% of the total value traded.

Media and Consumer Durables were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 45.8%MoM and

12.9%MoM respectively. While REITs and Food & Beverages sectors were the worst performers showing a

decline of 3.2%MoM and 0.18%MoM respectively. Dubai index declined 9.0%YTD.

TASI started the month at

7,870.87 points and closed

at 8,208.87 with an average

daily value traded of SAR

4.99bn compared to 4.17bn

in March.

TASI increased 338.0 points

(up 13.6%YTD). Media and

Food & Staples sectors

showed the highest YTD

increase of 82.3% and 24.1%

respectively. On other

hand, REITs and Real Estate

were the worst performing

sectors recording a decline

of 13.0%YTD and 7.9%YTD

respectively.

Basic Materials and Banks

registered the highest

traded values among

the sectors, accounting

for 31.27% and 21.59%,

respectively, of total value

traded in April. On the

other hand, Pharma and

Diversified Financials were

the lowest, accounting

for 0.51% and 0.14%

respectively.

Value Traded(bn)-RHS Closing Price - LHS

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

7,700

7,800

7,900

8,000

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

1-Apr-17 8-Apr-17 15-Apr-17 22-Apr-17 29-Apr-17

Sectors Performance

Value Traded per Sector (%)

MoM Performance YTD

-12.0%

8.0%

28.0%

48.0%

68.0%

88.0%

Capi

tal G

oods

Com

mer

cial

Ser

vice

Tran

spor

tati

on

Cons

umer

Dur

able

s

Cons

umer

Ser

vice

s

Food

& S

tapl

es

Food

& B

ever

ages

Phar

ma

& B

io T

ech

Div

ersi

�ed

Fina

ncia

ls

TASI

Ener

gy

Mat

eria

ls

Med

ia

Reta

iling

Hea

lthc

are

Bank

s

Insu

ranc

e

Tele

com

Uti

litie

s

REIT

s

Real

Est

ate

Real

Est

ate

Capi

tal G

oods

Food

& B

ever

ages

Cons

umer

Ser

vice

s

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Mat

eria

ls

Bank

s

Insu

ranc

e

Ener

gy

Tele

com

Med

ia

Oth

ers

YTD

Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital

Source:Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital






Al Sorayai Group was the best performing stock in April recording an increase of 49.7%MoM followed by SRMG which showed an increase of 48.2%MoM. On the other hand, Southern Cement was the worst performing stock recording a decline of 18.7%MoM , followed by Arabian Cement which showed a decline of 15.2%MoM.

On a Monthly basis,

Qatar index was the best

performing index, rising

6.3%MoM. Bahrain index

was the worst performing

index, decline of 4.6%MoM.

Arabian Shield had the

lowest P/E of 7.99, followed

by Buruj at 8.47x and WALAA

at 8.57.

Monthly YTD

TASI Dubai(DFMGI)

Qatar Kuwait Bahrain OmanAbu dahbi(ADSMI)

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

AlSo

raya

i Gro

up

SRM

G

Shar

qiya

Dev

Al A

lam

iya

BJAZ

Saud

i Cem

ent

Saud

i Cab

le

Yanb

u Ce

men

t

Arab

ian

Cem

ent

Sout

hern

Cem

ent

7.998.47 8.57 8.58 8.67

9.00 9.169.59

10.07 10.1910.67

11.10 11.24 11.30 11.42

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

Arab

ian

Shie

ld

Buru

j

WAL

AA

Trad

e Un

ion

AL-B

ABTA

IN

Gulf

Unio

n

saib

SAIC

O

Sala

ma

ARN

B

Zouj

aj

ALAW

WAL

BSFR

RIBL

ACC

Top/Worst Performing Companies

GCC Market Performance

Companies with lowest PE

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital







3-month and 6-month

SAIBOR ended the month

at 2.38% and 2.56%

respectively. The 3-month

and 6-month SAIBOR

showed a MoM increase of

5.0% and 4.5% respectively.

Saudi Arabia inflation rate

stood at 2.8% at the end of

March, a decrease from 2.9%

in February.

Deposits showed a decline

of SAR 10.1bn (0.6%MoM),

while loans showed an

increase of SAR 4.0bn

(0.3%MoM) by end of March.

SAIBOR 3M SAIBOR 6M

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

-0.90%

-0.40%

0.10%

0.60%

1.10%

1.60%

2.10%

2.60%

3.10%

Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18

Changes In Deposits(LHS) Changes in Loans(LHS) ADR(RHS)

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

-3.5%

-2.0%

-0.5%

1.0%

2.5%

4.0%

5.5%

Mar-1

3

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar-1

4

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar-1

5

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar-1

6

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar-1

7

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec-

17

Mar-1

8

Inflation Rate

SAIBOR

Deposits & loans

Economic Data


Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital


Total loans showed a decline of 0.9%YoY in March. The highest decline was for loans with maturity of above 3 years, which showed a decline of 2.6%YoY, while loans of maturity of 1-3 years showed an increase of 1.3%YoY. Loans with maturity less than 1 year showed a decline of 0.7%YoY. Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS 1 to 3 year (%) -LHS Above 3 year (%) -LHS Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS

-5.0%

-2.0%

1.0%

4.0%

7.0%

10.0%

13.0%

16.0%

-15.0%

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

Mar-1

5

May-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov-

15

Jan-

16

Mar-1

6

May-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov-

16

Jan-

17

Mar-1

7

May-

17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov-

17

Jan-

18

Mar-1

8

Change in Loans by Maturity (%) Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital





Demand deposits showed

an increase of SAR 3.1

(0.3%MoM) in March.

Time & Saving deposits

showed an increase of

SAR 1.8bn (0.4%MoM).

In addition, government

deposits showed a

decline of (0.6%MoM).

Point of Sales showed a

decline of 27.0%MoM in

March and stood at SAR

19.5bn, with total number

of transactions standing at

82.5mn (up 21.8%MoM).

Demand Deposit (LHS) Time & Savings Deposits (LHS) Other Deposits (LHS) Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)

SAR

('000

)

SAR

(Milli

on)

-60,000

-35,000

-10,000

15,000

40,000

65,000

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1650

Mar-1

3

Jul-1

3

Nov-

13

Mar-1

4

Jul-1

4

Nov-

14

Mar-1

5

Jul-1

5

Nov-

15

Mar-1

6

Jul-1

6

Nov-

16

Mar-1

7

Jul-1

7

Nov-

17

Mar-1

8

Sales(bn) (LHS) No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)

SAR

(Milli

on)

SAR

('000

)24.0

34.0

44.0

54.0

64.0

74.0

84.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

Mar-1

5

May-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov-

15

Jan-

16

Mar-1

6

May-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov-

16

Jan-

17

Mar-1

7

May-

17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov-

17

Jan-

18

Mar-1

8

Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits

POS (Point of Sale)







Brent and WTI showed an

increase of 7.0%MoM and

5.6%MoM respectively, and

closed at $75.17 and $68.57

respectively.

Gold and Silver showed a

decline of 0.8%MoM and

0.2%MoM respectively,

and closed the month

at $1315.39 and $16.33

respectively.

Copper showed an increase

of 0.9%MoM and ended the

month at 3.0525 USD/lb.

Steel showed an increase of

0.7%MoM and ended the

month at 865 USD/ton.

Spread(RHS) Brent(LHS) WTI(LHS)

Apr-17 Mar-18 Apr-18May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-180

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

41

46

51

56

61

66

71

76

Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS) G/S Price (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct-1

3

Jan-

14

Apr-1

4

Jul-1

4

Oct-1

4

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oct-1

5

Jan-

16

Apr-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oct-1

6

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

USD/

Ib

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18

USD/

Ton

Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18570

620

670

720

770

820

870

* May 2018 contract for Brent, April 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index

Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)

Oil Prices (USD) *

Copper

Steel **

Commodities Prices









EUR/USD

Dollar Index

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-1

7

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-1

7

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-1

8

Apr-1

8

USD/YUAN

USD/YEN

1.04

1.07

1.1

1.13

1.16

1.19

1.22

1.25

1.28

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-1

7

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-1

7

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-1

8

Apr-1

8

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-1

7

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-1

7

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-1

8

Apr-1

8

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-1

7

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-1

7

Nov-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jan-1

8

Feb-1

8

Mar-1

8

Apr-1

8

Exchange Rate

Dollar Index showed an

increase of 2.1%MoM by the

end of April and stood at

91.84 points.

Euro depreciated against

the Dollar by 2.0%MoM and

stood at 1.2078 EUR/USD.

YUAN depreciated by

0.9%MoM against the

Dollar and stood at 6.3322

YUAN/USD.

YEN depreciated by

2.9%MoM against the Dollar

and stood at 109.34 YEN/USD.





Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory

Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37

RESE

ARC

H D

IVIS

ION

RESE

ARC

H

DIV

ISIO

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TIN

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RMIN

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BRO

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GE A

ND IN

VEST

MEN

T CE

NTER

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VISI

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Disclaimer

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

AnalystSultan Al Kadi, CAIA+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Muhanad Al-Odan+966 11 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

sales

Alaa Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional

brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment

Centers

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi +966 12 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]

monthly report may 2018 - aljazira capital · monthly report may 2018 saudi arabia | saudi stock...

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