monthly insights · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 ftse/jse all...

13
www.fairtreeprivateclient.com MONTHLY INSIGHTS JANUARY 2018

Upload: others

Post on 10-Sep-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

www.fairtreeprivateclient.com

MONTHLY INSIGHTSJANUARY 2018

Page 2: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

Return

Steinhoff Interna�onal Holdings NV

Steinhoff Africa Retail Ltd

Jse Limited

PPC Ltd

Mr Price Group Ltd

Bidvest Group

42.58

31.12

21.28

17.22

16.74

14.43

JSE Winners ­ 1 month

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

Return

Steinhoff Interna�onal Holdings NV

Steinhoff Africa Retail Ltd

Jse Limited

PPC Ltd

Mr Price Group Ltd

Bidvest Group

42.58

31.12

21.28

17.22

16.74

14.43

JSE Winners ­ YTD

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE SA Resources TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Ind/Industrials TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Financial 15 TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Top 40 SWIX TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Mid Cap TR ZAR

FTSE/JSE Small Cap TR ZAR

Beassa ALBI TR ZAR

STeFI Composite ZAR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

1.21

0.30

1.07

18.00

13.55

1.72

7.06

0.73

6.57

1.80

8.81

9.43

9.24

12.49

24.85

17.04

9.84

10.57

5.62

6.36

3.65

13.50

16.07

17.82

9.85

24.12

22.72

20.24

5.51

0.24

10.79

7.51

29.68

8.21

8.33

0.57

8.74

6.73

7.81

6.02

4.45

5.36

7.16

9.85

11.25

11.00

­2.95

11.14

13.46

12.23

11.22

11.80

6.64

6.53

7.11

0.10 0.10

0.20 0.20

3.18 3.18

5.76 5.76

­2.31 ­2.31

­0.67 ­0.67

­0.09 ­0.09

­0.28 ­0.28

1.86 1.86

0.60 0.60

5.57 5.57

South African Indices

American Indices

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

DJ Industrial Average TR USD

S&P 500 TR USD

NASDAQ Composite TR USD

US Dollar

CBOE Market Vola�lity (VIX)

12.49

10.18

10.44

­5.73

33.01

20.81

15.43

17.36

­4.02

31.97

34.80

26.41

33.43

­10.43

12.93

17.98

14.65

18.30

­2.03

­13.57

16.36

15.91

20.16

2.39

­1.06

5.88 5.88

5.73 5.73

7.40 7.40

­3.25 ­3.25

22.64 22.64

European Indices

World Index (USD)

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

FSE DAX TR EUR

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

1.13

­0.30

­0.39

8.81

3.95

8.84

7.62

13.50

10.38

14.34

15.44

29.68

7.82

7.24

5.99

9.85

7.67

11.15

7.99

7.11

­1.96 ­1.96

2.10 2.10

3.19 3.19

5.57 5.57

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

MSCI ACWI NR USD ­8.12 2.85 12.29 12.67 17.521.32 1.32

World Index (ZAR)

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

MSCI ACWI NR USD 9.42 14.29 27.48 11.90 11.025.64 5.64

Time Period: 2017/11/01 to 2018/01/31

2017/11 2017/12 2018/0195.0

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P 500 TR USD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

Global Indices ­ Performance

Global Indices ­ Cumula�ve Performance YTD

1 M YTD­3.00

­2.25

­1.50

­0.75

0.00

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50

5.25

6.00

0.10 0.10

4.50 4.50

2.34 2.34

5.73 5.73

­1.96 ­1.96

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR

S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Re

turn

JSE Losers ­ 1 month

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

Return

Ascendis Health Ltd

Greenbay Proper�es Ltd

Fortress Income Fund Ltd Class B

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited

NEPI Rockcastle PLC

Resilient REIT Ltd

­33.69

­29.02

­29.01

­26.75

­24.81

­22.87

JSE Losers ­ YTD

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

Return

Ascendis Health Ltd

Greenbay Proper�es Ltd

Fortress Income Fund Ltd Class B

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited

NEPI Rockcastle PLC

Resilient REIT Ltd

­33.69

­29.02

­29.01

­26.75

­24.81

­22.87

January 2018 Page 1

Page 3: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

JSE Top 40 ­ Holdings

Por�olio Holding's Date: 2018/01/31

Market Cap (mil) 1 M 1 Y 3 Yr YTD

Anglo American PLC

Anglogold Ashan� Ltd

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd

Barclays Africa Group Ltd

BHP Billiton PLC

Bid Corp Ltd

Bidvest Group Ltd

Bri�sh American Tobacco PLC

Cie Financiere Richemont SA DR

Discovery Ltd

Firstrand Ltd

Fortress REIT Ltd Class A

Fortress REIT Ltd Class B

Gold Fields Ltd

Growthpoint Proper�es Ltd

Impala Pla�num Holdings Ltd

Intu Proper�es PLC

Investec Ltd

Investec PLC

Life Healthcare Group Holdings Ltd

Mediclinic Interna�onal PLC

Mondi Ltd

Mondi PLC

Mr Price Group Ltd

MTN Group Ltd

Naspers Ltd Class N

Nedbank Group Ltd

Netcare Ltd

Old Mutual PLC

Redefine Proper�es Ltd

Reinet Investments SCA DR

Remgro Ltd

Rmb Holdings Ltd

Sanlam Ltd

Sappi Ltd

Sasol Ltd

Shoprite Holdings Ltd

Standard Bank Group Ltd

Steinhoff Interna�onal Holdings NV

Tiger Brands Ltd

Truworths Interna�onal Ltd

Vodacom Group Ltd

25 873.01 10.27 29.35 17.68 10.27

46 140.64 2.75 ­21.71 ­0.93 2.75

90 416.03 ­10.97 16.77 — ­10.97

173 276.59 ­0.53 19.99 1.89 ­0.53

585 799.89 2.35 11.25 8.01 2.35

122 077.88 ­2.45 ­11.18 ­14.08 ­2.45

116 755.52 ­9.00 48.27 15.76 ­9.00

79 082.23 14.43 60.76 17.41 14.43

423 156.24 ­0.75 37.55 12.12 ­0.75

100 862.78 ­3.97 2.81 12.51 ­3.97

86 088.83 0.25 12.88 4.32 0.25

2 840.16 ­10.91 ­11.43 ­9.92 ­10.91

38 414.87 ­5.93 31.77 6.68 ­5.93

36 440.08 ­29.01 ­8.57 18.15 ­29.01

81 187.38 2.73 13.36 7.72 2.73

21 901.23 11.67 ­31.98 ­21.71 11.67

40 264.52 0.50 ­9.67 ­8.30 0.50

4 265.53 2.24 1.60 3.06 2.24

36 440.08 ­5.73 10.33 6.07 ­5.73

28 279.30 3.13 2.53 2.54 3.13

4 475.09 ­8.05 ­22.92 — ­8.05

1 422 875.39 ­1.99 58.61 26.05 ­1.99

35 818.42 5.22 ­16.47 ­9.41 5.22

232 536.25 ­3.81 10.31 ­7.10 ­3.81

12 716.70 0.91 15.90 7.49 0.91

— 5.23 22.10 12.76 22.38

61 199.57 1.98 5.30 5.51 1.98

6 953.70 ­2.80 9.63 18.63 ­2.80

146 444.02 3.25 19.36 5.32 3.25

135 120.55 0.44 7.06 ­2.01 0.44

124 729.14 0.52 26.32 9.82 0.52

147 443.26 ­1.20 9.97 17.61 ­1.20

24 102.90 42.58 ­89.13 ­44.00 42.58

76 481.61 1.71 16.32 7.67 1.71

258 873.85 0.11 10.02 3.93 0.11

41 694.12 ­1.71 1.28 22.93 ­1.71

43 747.25 3.71 26.57 11.10 3.71

186 338.63 1.34 40.08 10.88 1.34

348 320.38 2.56 45.26 12.91 2.56

275 349.49 12.09 13.54 11.71 12.09

77 177.30 16.74 80.39 4.92 16.74

143 228.81 11.27 40.66 12.06 11.27

JSE Top 40 ­ Return per annum

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD­5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0 22.8

9.27.5

­1.6

23.1

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR

Re

turn

South African Headlines

Cyril Ramaphosa’s commitment to roo�ng out corrup�on (through forging ahead with the inquiry into state

capture), a firm stance on the unaffordability of nuclear energy and an overhaul of Eskom’s board have

rekindled hopes for structural reform, necessary to li� the country to a higher growth plane in the medium

term. Ramaphosa further noted the importance of providing regulatory certainty and reining in

government’s budget deficit. Gains were muted against the euro (0.2%), which strengthened against the US

dollar in January 2018. The rand weakened against the Bri�sh pound by 0.8% in the same period.

The local equity market moved broadly sideways for the month. The All Share Index inched 0.1% higher in

January, while the returns from the market’s underlying cons�tuents varied considerably. The Resources

Index increased by 3.2% in the month, in line with a rise in commodity prices. The Financials Index, on the

other hand, collapsed 3%, with losses extending in the final week of January 2018 in reac�on to a nega�ve

report released on Capitec, by Viceroy Research. The Industrials Index treaded water in January 2018,

ending the month only 0.4% higher. Rand­hedge shares suffered on the back of further gains in the local

unit. The FTSE/JSE Mid­cap Index dipped 0.1% in January, while the FTSE/JSE Small­cap Index tracked lost

0.3% for the month.

Vodacom subscriber numbers jump 13%

Vodacom had 73.6 million ac�ve customers across its various markets at the end of December, an increase of 13% year on

year, the JSE­listed telecommunica�ons group said on Wednesday in a quarterly update for the last three months of 2017.

Group revenue climbed by 6.7% to R22.6 billion in the three­month period, while service revenue rose by 5.5% to R18.4

billion.

Vodacom added 1.6 million new customers in South Africa and 900 000 in its interna�onal opera�ons.Group data revenue

increased by 9.7% to R6.6 billion. Interna�onal data revenue was up 19.5%. South Africa service revenue grew 4.9% to

R14.1 billion, supported by strong customer gains and data revenue growth. Interna�onal service revenue increased 8.7% to

R4.6 billion.

“Our strategy of sustained investment into our network and improving customer experience has delivered solid gains in

customer numbers in South Africa, and driven growth in our interna�onal opera�ons, resul�ng in stronger growth in group

revenue of 6.7%,” said group CEO Shameel Joosub in a statement to shareholders.

“In South Africa, our customer base grew 14.4% to 41.6 million, contribu�ng to the 6.2% increase in revenue, underpinned

by a resilient prepaid voice market and a highly successful summer campaign.”

Vodacom said it cut the effec�ve price of data by 24.2% year on year. “To compensate for the expected shor�all in revenue,

we have undertaken a range of ini�a�ves to s�mulate usage. Monthly trends toward the end of the quarter show that this

is having the desired effect,” Joosub said.

In South Africa, the group’s biggest market, it added 1.5 million prepaid customers during the quarter, with prepaid ac�ve

customers up 16.3% year on year. This led to prepaid customer revenue growth of 6.8%. Contract customers increased by

81 000.

Capitec

South Africa’s best­performing stock of the last decade, Capitec Bank Holdings, was ra�led a�er a short seller alleged the

lender was concealing significant write­offs. The bank denied the allega�ons and fired back by repor�ng Viceroy Research to

regulators.Capitec, which makes unsecured loans mainly to low­ and middle­income households, posted its biggest­ever

intraday share drop on Tuesday. It then recovered most of those losses a�er South Africa’s central bank said it has no

evidence to suggest the lender’s stability is in ques�on.

Visibly exhausted from a long day of turmoil, Chief Execu�ve Officer Gerrie Fourie met reporters in Cape Town to deny

allega�ons by Viceroy that Capitec may be hiding losses by refinancing defaulted loans with new debt. “We find it very one­

sided, and very inaccurate,” he said of Viceroy’s report on Bloomberg Television.

Stock Informa�on

1 M YTD­1.00

­0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

0.20 0.20

1.74 1.74

­0.52 ­0.52

­0.14 ­0.14

1.69 1.69

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR Fairtree Select Equity (Daily Track) (ASISA) South African EQ Financial

(ASISA) South African EQ Industrial (ASISA) South African EQ Resources

Re

turn

Local Indices ­ Performance

Time Period: 2017/02/01 to 2018/01/31

2017/07 2018/0195.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

FTSE/JSE Top 40 TR ZAR 117.8

JSE Top 40 Index

January 2018 Page 2

Page 4: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

The economic expansion has been running for 103 months. This is just 17 months short of the longest

economic upswing experienced in the US between 1991 and 2001. Although the business cycle is

becoming increasingly mature, there is reason to believe the risk of an imminent recession remains low.

A s�ll accommoda�ve monetary policy stance, easier fiscal policy and a lack of clear economic distor�ons

suggest growth in the economy and could pick up close to 2.5% in 2018 from 2.3% in 2017. Moreover,

fiscal policy is set to become a li�le more suppor�ve in 2018 and 2019. Morgan Stanley es�mates the

changes to tax legisla�on should boost growth by 0.3% in 2018 and 0.2% in 2019.

Investors have been cheered thus far by be�er­than­expected company results and upbeat outlooks in

the wake of US tax cuts. But a�er a wave of Wall Street records in the first month of 2018, they are

nervous that stocks may be ‘priced for perfec�on’ heading into the busiest stretch of earnings season.

There have been worries about Apple's earnings a�er the Nikkei daily reported that the company was

slashing produc�on of the latest model of its iPhone. Apple will halve produc�on of the iPhone X in the

three­month period from January from the level envisaged at the �me of its release in November, the

business paper said.

American Headlines S&P 500

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.0

107.0

108.0

S&P 500 TR USD 105.7

NASDAQ

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

NASDAQ Composite TR USD 107.4

DJ INDUSTRIAL AVE

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.0

107.0

108.0

DJ Industrial Average TR USD 105.9

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

DJ Industrial Average TR USD

S&P 500 TR USD

NASDAQ Composite TR USD

12.49

10.18

10.44

20.81

15.43

17.36

34.80

26.41

33.43

17.98

14.66

18.31

16.36

15.91

20.16

5.88 5.88

5.73 5.73

7.40 7.40

American Indices

Asian Indices

European Indices

The Eurozone experienced a strong start to the year, with manufacturing and services sen�ment levels improving

further, indica�ng a broad­based economic recovery. This �me around, not only are the core economies experiencing an

up�ck in growth, but peripheral countries are also undergoing an improvement in growth. The European Commission’s

economic sen�ment indicator improved from 76 points in August 2015, in Greece, to 101 points in December 2017. The

sen�ment index for Germany was nearly 25 points higher in December 2017, compared to its previous low in October

2012.

Although the lower risk of a euro breakup could indicate populist forces have dimmed somewhat, the risk of rising

populist support has not been ex�nguished. Support for populist par�es today is the highest it’s been in three decades.

With ci�zens ra�ng immigra�on and terrorism as the two main concerns facing the European Union, it is no wonder

support for non­mainstream par�es has strengthened.

Brexit: In the absence of a deal, to either replace or extend the UK’s membership of the European Union, trade

condi�ons between the UK and the European Union would revert to World Trade Organisa�on (WTO) rules, which are

less favourable for the UK, given that more puni�ve tariffs would likely be implemented across many sectors of the UK

economy. In par�cular, a 30% to 40% tariff on agricultural goods could poten�ally be imposed on UK farmers, which

would curb export growth.

The Eurostoxx 50 gained 4.7% by the third week of January 2018, but gains were partly reversed in the final week of the

month as concerns arose over a paring back of asset purchases by the European Central Bank.

European Headlines FTSE 100

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

97.8

98.5

99.3

100.0

100.8

101.5

FTSE 100 TR GBP 98.0

DAX

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

FSE DAX TR EUR 102.1

CAC 40

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR 103.2

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

FTSE 100 TR GBP

FSE DAX TR EUR

Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR EUR

MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD

1.13

­0.30

­0.39

8.81

3.95

8.84

7.62

13.50

10.38

14.34

15.44

29.68

7.82

7.24

5.99

9.85

7.67

11.15

7.99

7.11

­1.96 ­1.96

2.10 2.10

3.19 3.19

5.57 5.57

Asian Headlines

In the fourth quarter of 2017, China’s economy grew slightly above consensus at 6.8% year on year. Retail

sales disappointed slightly and industrial produc�on was stable. One of the best performing equity

markets in January was emerging market equity—heavily driven by emerging Asia. A number of factors

are suppor�ve of ac�vity and stocks in emerging markets, including a weaker US dollar, stronger

commodity demand and prices, and an expansion in global business investment. All of which are

suppor�ve of emerging market technology producers.

Overall, markets are moving broadly in line with the key themes we iden�fied for this year. Risk assets are

benefi�ng from a synchronised global recovery, and infla�on is picking up moderately. Central banks feel

comfortable easing off the accelerator, but are not close to moving to the brake.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 brought up the rear, edging higher by 1.5% for the same period. Asian stock s

ended the month 7.5% higher, while the MSCI EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) Index rose 5.5%.

NIKKEI

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

Nikkei 225 Average TR JPY 101.5

HANG SENG

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

Hang Seng HSI TR HKD 109.9

SHANGAI

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

DJ Shanghai PR CNY 104.5

1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Nikkei 225 Average TR JPY

Hang Seng HSI TR HKD

DJ Shanghai PR CNY

5.01

16.04

6.32

19.50

21.65

9.81

27.25

48.93

14.62

12.22

14.76

5.20

18.21

10.99

9.70

­0.35 ­0.35

7.59 7.59

4.15 4.15

January 2018 Page 3

Page 5: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Commodity Headlines

For South African gold miners, it’s both the best and worst of �mes.

The metal started the year with a bang, rising more than 4% to the highest since August 2016. But an

equally impressive rally in the rand means that South Africa­focused producers are likely to miss out on the

party.

Because mining companies pay most of their expenses in local currency, a stronger rand squeezes pro fit

margins and can render some opera�ons unprofitable. Many of South Africa’s gold mines date back to the

1950s and 1960s and much of the easily accessible metal has been exhausted, while labour­intensive mining

methods compound the effect of currency moves. With the rand below R12/$, margin pressure is definitely

building up. Rand strength is the flip side of an improving economy, but it’s causing headwinds to miners

because of costs going up ­ they are not enjoying the tailwinds from rising gold prices.

Commodi�es

Something Interes�ng

VW completes R6.1bn investment programme in SA

Volkswagen Group South Africa has completed its R6.1 billion investment programme in the country, which

began in 2015.

Speaking at the event, VWSA chairman and managing director Thomas Schaefer lauded the government fo r

introducing the Motor Industry Development Programme, which was later succeeded by the Automo�ve

Produc�on and Development Programme (APDP).

“The automo�ve sector of the South African economy accounts for approximately 7.4% of the GDP and

accounts for the direct employment of 113 000 people. I am convinced that the next phase of the APDP will

con�nue in the same vein and allow for con�nued automo�ve investment,” Schaefer said.

The group said it had produced 110 000 cars in 2017. This is set to increase to 133 000 for 2018, of which

83 000 will be exported to markets around the world. This will include not only right­hand drive markets,

but also to some le�­hand drive markets, especially for the Polo GTI. Maximum annual plant capacity is

expected to be reached with a three­shi� opera�on of some 160 000 vehicles, in 2019.

January 2018

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/0198.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

S&P GSCI Gold TR 102.3 Oil Price Brent Crude PR 103.3

Currency Headlines

It’s been a good few months for emerging­market currencies, and none more so the rand. The rand gained

nearly 3.5% against the US dollar during the month on rising sen�ment.

South Africa’s currency has had its best three­month run in almost 10 years as it rides a wave of op�mism

following Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa’s elec�on as the leader of the ruling African Na�onal Congress.

The 19% gain in the period ended January 31 is more than double that of the next­best emerging­market

currency, Poland’s zloty. Meanwhile, the ANC wants a speedy transi�on of power following the elec�on of a

new leadership and will discuss the ma�er with President Jacob Zuma, according to a top party official. The

rand will con�nue to remain sensi�ve to the headlines surrounding poli�cal news. It certainly looks like

there is pressure building for a plan for President Zuma’s removal.

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/0114.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.7

Currency EUR 14.3

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

16.7

16.9

17.1

17.3

Currency GBP 17.1

GBP/ZAR

Time Period: 2018/01/01 to 2018/01/31

2018/01

12.9

13.113.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

Currency USD 13.2

USD/ZAR

Page 4

EUR/ZAR

Page 6: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Monthly Returns ­ FTSE/JSE All share Monthly Returns ­ FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

0.10

4.31 ­3.11 2.68 3.64 ­0.42 ­3.49 7.03 2.65 ­0.87 6.26 1.46 ­0.34

­2.99 0.59 6.44 1.70 1.84 ­3.02 1.16 0.26 ­0.93 ­2.49 ­0.55 0.97

3.08 4.07 ­1.33 4.70 ­3.95 ­0.76 0.52 ­3.55 0.95 7.61 ­3.86 ­1.72

­2.36 4.88 1.83 2.65 1.60 2.77 0.93 ­0.46 ­2.58 1.01 0.54 ­0.19

3.23 ­1.89 1.19 ­2.49 8.51 ­5.70 4.41 2.58 5.08 3.61 ­1.10 2.98

20.95

2.63

5.13

10.88

21.43

0.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

­9.91

1.63 ­0.36 0.11 0.51 0.11 0.29 3.70 0.76 1.19 1.99 1.92 4.21

­2.98 3.65 9.48 1.95 ­3.47 1.17 3.26 ­4.89 1.09 0.50 ­3.34 4.24

7.38 3.16 2.64 0.04 ­5.93 ­0.36 5.14 0.22 0.82 2.08 ­0.50 ­6.12

­7.13 4.66 4.76 2.32 ­1.26 3.37 1.91 2.96 2.18 6.84 2.83 1.11

0.99 4.64 3.28 7.37 ­11.09 4.38 ­4.19 ­3.47 6.71 3.04 ­2.96 1.00

17.15

10.20

7.99

26.64

8.39

­9.91

Monthly Returns ­ MSCI World (ZAR) Monthly Returns ­ MSCI World (USD)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

1.32

1.27 ­0.25 3.77 1.37 0.70 ­0.18 3.51 ­1.11 5.89 6.91 ­1.66 ­7.79

­3.58 ­1.41 0.08 ­2.16 11.05 ­7.45 ­1.26 6.50 ­5.97 ­3.62 4.82 ­0.40

­1.03 5.77 2.36 1.54 1.64 ­2.60 4.85 ­2.08 0.47 7.69 3.58 5.52

2.37 0.82 ­1.65 1.08 2.64 2.41 ­0.49 1.44 2.79 ­1.54 1.67 2.71

10.14 0.43 4.12 0.70 11.69 ­4.20 4.60 1.19 3.35 3.42 3.05 4.80

12.23

­4.81

30.78

15.05

51.60

1.32

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

5.64

2.73 2.81 1.22 1.56 2.21 0.45 2.79 0.38 1.93 2.08 1.94 1.61

­6.03 ­0.69 7.41 1.48 0.13 ­0.61 4.31 0.34 0.61 ­1.70 0.76 2.16

­1.56 5.57 ­1.55 2.90 ­0.13 ­2.35 0.87 ­6.86 ­3.62 7.85 ­0.83 ­1.80

­4.00 4.83 0.44 0.95 2.13 1.88 ­1.21 2.21 ­3.24 0.70 1.67 ­1.93

4.61 ­0.02 1.83 2.86 ­0.27 ­2.92 4.79 ­2.08 5.17 4.02 1.42 1.73

23.97

7.86

­2.36

4.16

22.80

5.64

Beassa ALBI SA CPI Synthe�c (Headline)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

1.86

1.36 0.71 0.40 1.42 1.03 ­0.95 1.50 1.03 1.11 ­2.30 ­0.97 5.66

4.57 ­0.72 2.63 1.85 ­1.47 4.04 2.19 ­1.72 2.98 0.64 ­1.83 1.54

6.47 ­2.77 ­0.51 ­0.49 ­0.76 ­0.15 1.04 0.14 ­0.07 1.30 ­1.02 ­6.67

­3.24 2.44 1.79 0.32 1.14 0.97 1.02 2.80 ­1.57 3.41 2.36 ­1.51

0.07 0.66 0.20 4.09 ­4.64 ­1.56 ­0.62 ­1.32 3.92 0.39 ­1.37 1.13

10.24

15.42

­3.93

10.15

0.64

1.86

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

0.48

0.40 0.60 1.09 0.59 0.10 0.29 0.19 0.29 0.10 0.48 0.29 0.10

0.32 0.75 1.38 0.73 0.83 0.21 0.51 0.82 ­0.10 0.20 0.51 0.30

­0.22 ­0.11 0.56 1.45 0.88 0.22 0.44 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.11

0.24 0.71 1.06 1.40 0.46 0.11 0.34 0.80 0.34 0.00 0.22 0.00

0.25 0.25 1.00 1.23 0.36 ­0.24 0.24 1.09 0.24 0.48 0.24 0.12

4.62

6.64

4.71

5.81

5.38

0.48

STeFI FTSE/JSE Ind/Industrials

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

0.60

0.65 0.57 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.59 0.61 0.58 0.60

0.56 0.53 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.59 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.63 0.61 0.61

0.52 0.48 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.54 0.52 0.54 0.52 0.55

0.44 0.41 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.52

0.43 0.39 0.43 0.41 0.43 0.41 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.44

7.56

7.37

6.47

5.91

5.19

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

5.76

­2.25 0.73 ­2.12 2.82 ­0.04 ­3.73 1.91 4.57 ­2.37 3.64 4.13 7.15

1.79 ­2.02 7.84 1.98 0.03 2.96 5.68 ­2.08 ­1.22 0.03 ­0.83 6.12

3.14 ­0.63 ­1.70 0.53 ­4.46 0.13 ­0.31 ­0.69 ­2.07 6.81 ­5.03 ­5.62

­6.73 0.34 5.55 4.26 1.55 ­0.13 1.35 1.08 ­4.19 5.40 ­1.16 0.17

1.70 5.23 3.31 ­2.40 5.42 ­2.85 ­0.36 0.74 4.25 3.99 ­1.34 2.39

14.73

21.55

­10.07

6.99

21.50

5.76

FTSE/JSE Financial 15 FTSE/JSE SA Resources

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

­2.31

­0.99 ­0.10 ­0.87 4.09 ­1.63 ­2.07 5.58 2.93 ­2.38 2.58 5.89 9.77

­3.45 ­2.87 12.41 ­1.26 ­2.18 ­2.80 2.85 ­2.88 1.52 ­1.37 1.34 3.23

4.57 3.39 2.26 4.93 ­6.76 ­0.54 3.46 ­4.04 ­2.19 7.31 ­3.96 ­6.13

­7.13 8.38 6.38 3.84 1.94 2.70 0.56 0.70 ­1.75 6.98 2.98 0.18

3.61 ­1.01 2.81 0.08 2.08 ­4.18 2.37 ­0.75 6.54 7.54 ­3.05 2.87

24.38

3.55

1.06

27.83

19.83

­2.31

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

3.18

10.74 ­9.91 2.91 0.01 ­4.11 ­3.08 13.32 5.10 ­1.07 7.06 ­1.60 ­0.45

­2.72 15.57 5.08 13.45 ­3.81 ­2.47 4.33 ­0.85 4.48 ­3.41 6.11 ­3.60

1.16 8.38 ­8.94 7.96 ­5.19 ­7.07 ­8.45 ­0.38 ­9.96 5.93 ­20.66 ­3.87

5.92 4.44 ­0.05 3.97 ­4.32 3.45 4.75 ­5.44 ­6.26 ­9.90 ­6.06 ­4.66

3.32 ­6.51 ­2.64 ­9.00 12.15 ­13.60 9.15 7.55 1.96 2.76 ­2.22 1.66

17.90

34.24

­36.99

­14.74

1.38

3.18

Page 5January 2018

Page 7: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

With President Cyril Ramaphosa at the steer of things, confidence seems to be restored. The South African government bond market con�nued to rally into 2018, with the favorable poli�cal backdrop

playing a massive part. It seems like we can expect a rate cut in 2018, should we be able to avoid a poten�al downgrade. The Rand appreciated by 4.5% against the US Dollar, mostly because of Dollar

weakening. In the por�olio we decided to move out of Truffle SCI Flexible fund and up weight PSG Flexible fund. We s�ll have an overweight offshore exposure to that of our peers, as we just cannot

argue that there must be more value globally than that which we can find locally. The property market struggled in January, both locally and offshore. The income funds making up the biggest

alloca�on in the cau�ous model was up on average by 0.66%.

Commentary

Correla�on Matrix

Time Period: 2016/02/01 to 2018/01/31

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.00

0.80 1.00

0.82 0.97 1.00

0.67 0.89 0.90 1.00

0.78 0.97 0.95 0.92 1.00

0.83 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.98 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum)

3 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

4 Fairtree Cau�ous Por�olio (PPS)

5 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

6 (ASISA) South African MA Low Equity

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum) Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Cau�ous Por�ollio (PPS)

January 2018

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

Page 6

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum)

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Cau�ous Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA Low Equity ­0.69 3.16 7.24 5.89 7.46­0.06 ­0.06

­0.87 3.40 8.29 6.91 8.79­0.43 ­0.43

0.26 4.76 9.59 7.82 9.35­0.19 ­0.19

­1.10 3.45 8.10 8.00­0.07 ­0.07

­0.60 3.63 8.42 7.21 8.900.91 0.91

Trailing Returns

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: CAUTIOUS PORTFOLIOS

Page 8: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Time Period: 2016/02/01 to 2018/01/31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.00

0.90 1.00

0.90 0.99 1.00

0.86 0.94 0.95 1.00

0.87 0.92 0.91 0.86 1.00

0.83 0.93 0.94 0.89 0.82 1.00

0.87 0.95 0.95 0.89 0.86 0.98 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

3 Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum)

4 Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

5 Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec)

6 Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

7 (ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio Por�olio (Momentum)

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec)

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity ­1.43 3.45 7.77 5.46 7.930.00 0.00

3.35 7.98 12.87 9.26 11.590.40 0.40

1.41 5.47 9.70 7.92 10.921.22 1.22

0.80 6.52 11.10 8.45 10.830.15 0.15

0.18 5.59 10.25 7.52 10.260.01 0.01

­2.64 3.35 7.80 7.36­0.03 ­0.03

Trailing Returns

The Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio had a small (but posi�ve) start, being up 0.15% for January. The All Bond Index drew some a�en�on, with new leadership and all together confidence

being restored, possibly avoiding a downgrade by the ra�ng agencies. The All Bond Index ended off the month being up 1.86%. The offshore exposure returns, were set off by the Rand’s apprecia�on

by 4.5%. With a recent reassessment of management we feel that Truffle does not bring the necessary uncorrelated performance to our por�olio. In streamlining our por�olio we have decided to

rather up weight our PSG Flexible alloca�on with the 4% alloca�on we had in Truffle Flexible. We have seen another valuable month from the smart beta mul� factor investment strategy and saw a

return of +2.68% for January. We will con�nue reassessing our current por�olio and managers included.

Smart Beta Balanced

The Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio started the year on a good note. The main contributor to this being the Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient Fund, being up 2.68%. The Rand appreciated by 4.35%

against the US Dollar, despite this strengthening the Fairtree Global Smart Beta Prescient Fund managed to be up 0.47% for January. The largest detractor for the month would be the local property

market, being down 9.91%. The All Share Index was up 0.1% for January. For the year ahead we are looking freshly at our approach and managers included. For the main part, we are very happy with

the por�olios returns for the last 6 months and the value we have seen come to play in terms of the mul� factor based investment strategy. Looking at the year ahead we are op�mis�c at the current

opportuni�es and excited for what the year might hold. ...

Commentary

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum) Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Balanced Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray) Fairtree Smart Beta Balanced Por�olio (Investec)Fairtree Balanced Por�olio (PPS)

January 2018 Page 7

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: BALANCED PORTFOLIOS

Page 9: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Time Period: 2016/02/01 to 2018/01/31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.00

0.94 1.00

0.93 0.99 1.00

0.88 0.94 0.95 1.00

0.86 0.87 0.89 0.85 1.00

0.84 0.89 0.91 0.88 0.74 1.00

0.90 0.92 0.94 0.90 0.81 0.98 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Growth Mul�­Maanged Por�olio (Momentum)

3 Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

4 Fairtree Growth Por�olio (PPS)

5 Fairtree Smart Beta Growth (Investec)

6 Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

7 (ASISA) South African MA High Equity

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum)

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Growth Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Smart Beta Growth (Investec)

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray)

(ASISA) South African MA High Equity ­1.58 3.97 8.24 5.61 8.460.07 0.07

5.76 10.94 15.38 9.85 13.260.81 0.81

­3.20 3.31 7.65 7.020.00 0.00

1.72 5.88 9.94 7.69 11.351.51 1.51

1.06 7.79 11.99 8.67 11.810.09 0.09

1.06 7.80 11.64 8.48 11.700.09 0.09

Trailing Returns

We ended 2017 on a high, with great sen�ment as we saw the change in leadership with President Ramaphosa replacing former President Zuma. The year started rather flat in terms of market

returns, even though we are experiencing some consumer confidence. The main reason for this was the strengthening of the Rand and while that is good in some aspects, it does have an effect on our

SA listed companies who generate their income offshore. We made one change in terms of management, as we reassessed management we felt that Truffle Flexible does not bring the wanted

uncorrelated returns we desire from them. Through an effort to streamline our por�olio we have up weighted PSG Flexible with the exposure we had to Truffle Flexible. The local property market

struggled throughout the month of January. We are confident and full of hope for the year of 2018.

Smart Beta Growth

As the year ended on a high for the mul� factor based investment strategy, so it started in 2018. The Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient fund has con�nued to produce returns when the All Share Index was

rather flat. The fund was up 2.86%, while the All Share Index was up 0.1%. The value factor was the biggest contributor in January with 4.7%, while the momentum factor was the smallest contributor

with 0.3%. Through the mul� factor investment philosophy, which makes up the largest part of the por�olio, we have seen the ability to avoid recent pi�alls. In avoiding these pi�alls, it serves as a

healthy contributor to the returns of the funds and that again contributes in the returns of the por�olio. As we enter the new year, with new leadership in our country and new op�mism, we are

definitely looking for new opportuni�es and reevalua�ng the por�olio’s construct. ...

Commentary

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum) Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec, Stanlib & Glacier)

Fairtree Growth Por�olio (PPS)

January 2018

Fairtree Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Allan Gray) Fairtree Smart Beta Growth Por�olio (Investec)

Page 8

REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: GROWTH PORTFOLIOS

Page 10: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Trailing Returns

Time Period: 2016/02/01 to 2018/01/31

1 2 3 4

1.00

0.75 1.00

0.74 0.95 1.00

0.80 0.92 0.86 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree High Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum & Glacier)

3 Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS)

4 Fairtree Tax Free Savings Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec)

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Correla�on Matrix

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree High Growth Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Momentum & Glacier)

Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS)

Fairtree Tax Free Savings Mul�­Managed Por�olio (Investec)

FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR 1.21 9.43 16.07 8.22 11.250.10 0.10

­0.49 5.14 12.06 9.58 14.010.54 0.54

­4.45 3.11 7.99 7.45 12.590.58 0.58

2.10 8.53 13.33 7.71­0.17 ­0.17

Commentary

The Fairtree High Growth wrap por�olio has had a good start to the year. Despite an overweight offshore exposure at 44.38% and the strengthening of the Rand against the US

Dollar, the por�olio s�ll managed to be up 0.54%. The biggest contributors to the performance was the Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient Fund and the Corona�on Op�mum Growth

Fund. The global outlook s�ll seems posi�ve for the near future and we feel comfortable with the current offshore exposure. The blend between ac�ve and passive within the

por�olio, gives it somewhat of a smoother return stream, yet par�cipa�ng in the upside of performance. The core of the por�olio being allocated to ac�vely managed, flexible

mandates, allows for asset alloca�on �lts and op�miza�on of opportuni�es with the local and global sectors.

Tax Free Savings Account

The por�olio has had some mixed returns during January. The Fairtree Smart Beta Prescient fund has performed well and was up 2.86%. The Satrix MSCI World Equity Index FF was

rather flat at +0.6%. Although global markets are looking strong, the US Dollar weakening led to a 4.5% apprecia�on in the Rand, this having a direct influence in the offshore

returns. The property market had a really tough start to the year and was down in excess of 9%. Considering all this, the por�olio had a rather flat start being down 0.17% for

January. As the poli�cal changes come to a se�le within SA, the Rand will be drawn to fair value, which can be good for the por�olio as we have around 40% offshore exposure.

Fairtree High Growth Por�olio (PPS) Fairtree High Growth MM Por�olio (Mom & Glacier) Fairtree Tax­Free Savings MM Por�olio

January 2018 Page 9

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: HIGH GROWTH PORTFOLIOS

Page 11: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

As we saw a transi�on in leadership from Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa, the poli�cal risk premium came down. There is a sense of confidence from both consumers and businesses. With the new­

found confidence in leadership, many are hoping for some be�er economic growth. We believe that Rhamaphosa will make some cabinet changes, which will signal his intent to implement reforms of

both government and SOE’s.

In January, SA equi�es con�nued to see inflows of $791.1mn, while SA bonds saw ou�lows of $347mn. This speaks to some of the confidence that we see being restored within the South African

economy, the ques�on s�ll begs how much of these inflows are in SA only stocks vs dual listed Rand hedged stocks.

The US and European Central banks have been in focus on the global front. The US Dollar weakened and allowed the Rand to appreciate by 4.5% over the month of January. Global growth and strong

economic back ground will allow central banks to roll back accommoda�ve policies gradually. The US should con�nue with some rate hikes through 2018. The European Central bank is also expected to

announce an end to its asset purchase program during the first half of this year. This can lead to some pressure on the emerging markets in the second half of this year. However, at this stage, global

growth remains stable along with commodity prices and the US dollar weak.

The RMB note por�olios have had a very tough start to the year. The mul� strategies, in terms of Woodland and Wild Fig have underperformed, acknowledged by management. We have had some

communica�on from them and all investors will receive an in depth le�er sta�ng some of the current posi�ons and explaining the recent drag on performance. However, the nature of these

investments have been proven over the longer term and we s�ll fully believe in the strategies implemented by management. We believe in the management staff and the possibili�es the year holds.

Our investment behavior can easily get the be�er of us in such circumstances, but as we have learned in the past that standing firm and backing robust investment processes, being able to stay

unemo�onal and invested will pay rich rewards in the future. As the year lays before us, it leaves us with a new set of opportuni�es to be exploited.

With the posi�vity we have experienced from many fellow South Africans in the change of leadership through Ramaphosa being elected, we believe that we can take the same a�tude with us in the

new year. Do we think that 2018 will be free of challenges? By no means, but are we excited by what it holds – definitely.

Commentary

Correla�on Matrix

Time Period: 2016/02/01 to 2018/01/31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.00

0.86 1.00

0.73 0.65 1.00

0.68 0.84 0.75 1.00

0.52 0.74 0.55 0.93 1.00

0.65 0.85 0.64 0.98 0.94 1.00

0.52 0.75 0.54 0.93 0.96 0.96 1.00

0.76 0.74 0.92 0.85 0.73 0.77 0.68 1.00

0.90 0.94 0.72 0.87 0.75 0.86 0.77 0.81 1.00

0.53 0.51 0.90 0.71 0.56 0.59 0.52 0.87 0.58 1.00

0.78 0.81 0.91 0.94 0.81 0.87 0.78 0.94 0.87 0.83 1.00

0.46 0.72 0.48 0.91 0.97 0.96 0.99 0.64 0.72 0.47 0.74 1.00

0.91 0.85 0.75 0.70 0.51 0.66 0.54 0.74 0.92 0.52 0.78 0.46 1.00

0.72 0.88 0.63 0.94 0.88 0.96 0.89 0.76 0.91 0.57 0.85 0.88 0.73 1.00

0.68 0.85 0.63 0.97 0.92 0.98 0.93 0.76 0.88 0.55 0.87 0.91 0.71 0.96 1.00

1 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR

2 Fairtree Aggressive Growth

3 Fairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

4 Fairtree Best Ideas Balanced Growth

5 Fairtree Best Ideas Cau�ous

6 Fairtree Best Ideas Aggressive Growth

7 Fairtree Capital Guarantee

8 Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager

9 Fairtree Equity Index + Alpha

10 Fairtree Global

11 Fairtree Aggressive Growth Mul� Manager

12 Fairtree High Growth

13 Fairtree Select Equity

14 Fairtree Empress Por�olio

15 Fairtree Juniper Por�olio

Posi�vely Correlated Nega�vely Correlated

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager Fairtree Best Ideas Cau�ous

Wrap / House View 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y YTD

Fairtree Aggressive Growth

Fairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

Fairtree Best Ideas Balanced Growth

Fairtree Best Ideas Cau�ous

Fairtree Best Ideas Aggressive Growth

Fairtree Capital Guarantee

Fairtree Cau�ous Mul� Manager

Fairtree Equity Index + Alpha

Fairtree Global

Fairtree Aggressive Growth Mul� Manager

Fairtree High Growth

Fairtree Select Equity

Fairtree Empress Por�olio

Fairtree Juniper Por�olio

­3.90 0.82 4.91 6.48 11.01­0.93 ­0.93

­12.28 ­8.25 ­7.82 1.28 10.80­7.08 ­7.08

­5.17 2.25 6.76 2.72 10.58­1.90 ­1.90

­5.68 ­0.77 1.47 3.87 10.14­3.00 ­3.00

0.69 8.68 18.03 8.47 20.031.54 1.54

­5.63 ­2.12 ­1.20 7.47­3.69 ­3.69

­4.76 ­1.37 ­0.05 6.96­3.05 ­3.05

­6.22 ­3.96 ­1.77 4.38 10.96­3.83 ­3.83

­7.97 ­2.36 ­3.84 3.44 13.37­3.95 ­3.95

­6.11 ­2.60 ­0.01 3.79 10.31­3.56 ­3.56

­15.34 ­13.83 ­13.91 ­0.33 10.93­9.90 ­9.90

­3.05 0.72 4.04 5.00 7.84­1.10 ­1.10

­3.96 ­1.88 ­0.39 5.21 9.54­3.05 ­3.05

­15.09 ­4.24 0.18 5.17 14.58­3.85 ­3.85

Trailing Returns

January 2018 Page 10

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: RMB NOTE STRUCTURE

Page 12: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

Fairtree High Growth

Fairtree Aggressive Growth Mul� Manager

Fairtree Aggressive Growth

Fairtree Best Ideas Aggressive Growth

Fairtree Capital Guarantee

Fairtree Juniper

January 2018

Fairtree Select Equity

Fairtree Empress

Page 11

Fairtree Global Por�olio

Fairtree Equity Index plus Alpha

NON­REGULATION 28 SOLUTIONS: RMB NOTE STRUCTURE ­ con�nued

Fairtree Best Ideas Balanced GrowthFairtree Balanced Mul� Manager

Page 13: MONTHLY INSIGHTS · 2018. 3. 19. · 0.10 0.10 4.50 4.50 2.34 2.34 5.73 5.73 1.96 1.96 FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR DJ Shanghai PR CNY S&P GSCI Gold TR S&P 500 TR USD FTSE 100 TR GBP

www.fairtreeprivateclient.com

Willowbridge PlaceCnr Carl Cronje Dr & Old Oak Rd

Bellville, 7530Western Cape, South Africa

021 943 3760

[email protected]

Copyright 2017 Fairtree Invest (Pty) Ltd,2013/059356/07 , a licensed

Financial Services Provider (FSP 25917)