monsanto -12-08
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
UBS
BEST OF AMERICAS CONFERENCE
STEVE PADGETTE PH.D.
VICE PRESIDENT, BIOTECHNOLOGY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2008
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.
TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
© 2008 Monsanto Company
3
OVERVIEW
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9P
STRETCHING SUPPLY
WORLD CORN AND SOYBEAN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1
ST
OC
KS
-T
O-U
SE
R
AT
IO
SOYBEAN STOCKS-TO-USE
1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn and soybeans
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
Strong Demand Environment
FACTORS:
► INCREASING PROTEIN
DEMAND
Wealth drives meat
consumption – changing
feed demand
► ASCENSION OF CHINA
China’s growth is reaching
limits of domestic
production, driving huge
changes in export
environment
► ESTABLISHMENT OF
BIOFUELS
Assuming only base-case
adoption of biofuels, more
corn and soy needed in next
decade
Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from Biofuels, Creates Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand
CORN STOCKS-TO-USE
• U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use ratio projected to be 12% for 2007/08
and down 28% to a 9% stocks-to-use ratio for 2008/09
• U.S. soybean stocks-to-use estimated to be 4.4% for 2007/08 and
essentially flat for 2008/09, even with acres up nearly 18%
Global Corn Production Per Acre Is Sub-Optimized Today, Creating an Opportunity for Innovation
OVERVIEW
Optimization of yield per acre
OptimizedSub-OptimizedPoor/Subsistence
U.S.90M ACRES
151 BU/AC
13B BUSHELS
CANADA3M ACRES
136 BU/AC
500M BUSHELS
INDIA20M ACRES
45% HYBRID
32 BU/AC
700M BUSHELS
MEXICO18M ACRES
25% HYBRID
48 BU/AC
900M BUSHELS BRAZIL36M ACRES
75% HYBRID
58 BU/AC
2B BUSHELS
ARGENTINA10M ACRES
111 BU/AC
900M BUSHELS
CHINA67M ACRES
83 BU/AC
6B BUSHELS
EU 2727M ACRES
90% HYBRID
99 BU/AC
2B BUSHELS
YIELD
Boosting yield-per-
acre can make a
meaningful
difference in
supply-demand
environment
• If India, Mexico
and Brazil moved
to 100 bushel per
acre yields, they
could produce
nearly 4 billion
additional
bushels of corn
annually – equal
to total world
corn exports in
2007
GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION1:
CORE PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AND EVALUATION
1. Source is USDA FAS and internal estimates. 4
Pipeline Leverages Power of Breeding and Biotech to Create Yield for Current Commercial Growth and New Platforms
OVERVIEW
MONSANTO’S R&D PIPELINE
Pipeline Priorities Through 2012
BREEDING
Continue to Drive Breeding Gains Across Crop Platforms
Pipeline Priorities Through 2012
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Deliver the Value in Monsanto’s Established Trait Pipeline
Unlock the Opportunity in Yield and Stress Through the BASF Collaboration
PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
ELIT
E
GE
RM
PLA
SM
GE
NO
MIC
S
MA
RK
ER
S
IT
PLA
TFO
RM
AN
ALY
TIC
S
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L
BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasm
R
SEED
SOLD TO
FARMERS
R&D PHASE: PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
ELIT
E
GE
RM
PLA
SM
ELIT
E
GE
RM
PLA
SM
GE
NO
MIC
SG
EN
OM
IC
S
MA
RK
ER
SM
AR
KE
RS
IT
PLA
TFO
RM
IT
PLA
TFO
RM
AN
ALY
TIC
SA
NA
LY
TIC
S
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L
TR
AIT
IN
TE
GR
AT
IO
N
BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasm
R
SEED
SOLD TO
FARMERS
R&D PHASE:
5
6
Plan to Continue to Target 1-2 Share Point Gains in Key Countries in 2009; U.S. Targets 2+ Share Gain
INTERNATIONAL CORN
U.S.
2008F DEKALBBRAND SHARE:
25-26%
ESTIMATED
FY08 GAIN:2-3 share
POSITION IN
MARKET:#2
FY09 TARGET: 2+ share
ARGENTINA
2008F TOTAL
BRAND SHARE:45%
ESTIMATED
FY08 GAIN:5 share
POSITION IN
MARKET:#1
FY09 TARGET: 1-2 share
BRAZIL
2008F TOTAL
BRAND SHARE:40%
ESTIMATED
FY08 GAIN:Held
Share
POSITION IN
MARKET:#1
FY09 TARGET: 1-2 share
EU27
2008F BRAND
SHARE:13%
ESTIMATED
FY08 GAIN:0.5 share
POSITION IN
MARKET:#3
FY09 TARGET: 1-2 share
INDIA
2008F BRAND
SHARE:39%
CURRENT
SHARE
ESTIMATE:
Flat
POSITION IN
MARKET:#1
FY09 TARGET: 1-2 share
INTERNATIONAL CORN BRAND PERFORMANCE:
LEADING MARKET INDICATORS OF MONSANTO BRAND SHARE PERFORMANCE – 2008
7
U.S. CORN
Triple Stack Penetration Accelerates, Creating Added Growth and Setting Stage for SmartStax Launch
U.S
. T
RA
IT
A
CR
ES
(IN
M
IL
LIO
NS
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
U.S
. T
RIP
LE
-S
TA
CK
A
CR
ES
(IN
M
IL
LIO
NS
)
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2005-2010F
Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.
2007 2008F 2009F 2010 Opportunity
Q3UPDATE Q3UPDATE
Rootworm Control 20.8M 28-29M NA 50-65M
Corn Borer Control 42.4M 43-44M NA 60-70M
Glyphosate Tolerance 57.9M 67-68M NA 80M
Triple Stack/SmartStax 17.6M 28M 34-35M 50-65M
Opportunity widens in 2010 with launch of SmartStax
Significant Growth Opportunity in Expansion of Existing
Commercial Biotech Traits Globally
GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAITS
INTERNATIONAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY
MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR BIOTECH TRAITS THROUGH 20101
1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.
2. Primarily Bollgard I penetration; opportunity to expand to second generation technology.
SOYBEANS COTTON CORN
ROUNDUP
READY
ROUNDUP
READY
(FLEX)
BOLLGARD
AND
BOLLGARD II
ROUNDUP
READY
CORN 2
YIELDGARD
CORN
BORER
YIELDGARD
ROOTWORM
Brazil 50-60M 3M 2M 15-20M 15-20M 5M
Argentina 40M - - 9M 7M 5M
India - 15-20M 15-20M 6M 6M -
Europe (EU27) 1M - - 24M 8M 5M
South Africa 0.2M .15M .15M 6M 4M -
Australia - 0.5M-0.8M 0.5M-0.8M - - -
OPPORTUNITY:
Total Key Markets91-101M 19-24M 18-23M 60-65M 40-45M 15M
2008F Penetration of
Key Markets68-76% 3-4% 72-94%2 3% 21-23% 0%
Opportunity for existing biotech traits outside of the U.S. is nearly 275M acres and a little more than a third of those acres have been penetrated
8
With Recent Trait Approvals, Door Opens for Technology Infusion in Latin America
INTERNATIONAL CORN
ARGENTINA BRAZIL
HYBRID ACRES – FY08E 10M1 27M
MONSANTO SHARE FY08E 45% 40%
FY09 TRAIT PRICING WITHIN
DEKALB BRAND $15-$16/ACRE $18-20/ACRE
FY08 AVG. RETAIL PRICE FOR
DEKALB HYBRID CORN SEED $29/ACRE $34/ACRE
1. Source: KLEFFMANN Marketing Services 9
• Roundup Ready Corn 2 with YieldGard Corn Borer stack received regulatory approval in Argentina end of August 2007
• YieldGard Corn Borer received final approvals in Brazil in early 2008
2008 STATUS
0
5
10
15
20
M A
CR
ES
YIELDGARD CORN
BORER
ROUNDUP READY CORN 2
WITH YIELDGARD CORN
BORER STACK
1-1.5M
7M
15-20M
1-2M
FY09F FY09FOPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY
Strong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation and Value of Emerging Yield and Stress Traits
R& D PIPELINE
DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
FAMILY TRAITS►
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
HIGH
SOYBEANS:
BROAD-ACRE
YIELD
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
Nitrogen-Utilization Family
FAMILY TRAITS►
FAMILY TRAITS► MEGA
HIGH
Drought-Tolerant Family
FAMILY TRAITS► HIGH
CORN:
BROAD-ACRE
YIELD
YIE
LD
&
S
TR
ES
S
CO
LL
AB
OR
AT
IO
N
High-oil
soybeans
Dicamba-tolerant soybeans
Vistive III Improved-protein soybeans
Roundup Ready 2 Yield canola
Bollgard IIIOmega-3 soybeans
YieldGard
VT PRO
corn
Roundup Ready 2 Yieldsoybeans
MEGA
>$1BM
HIGH
$300M-$500M
MID
$150M-$300M
Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola
2020 VALUE RANGES:
LOW
<$150M
10
Insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans
Note: 2020 value ranges reflects expected annual gross sales in launch country in 2020.
11
R & D PIPELINE
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Have Potential to Deliver Up to 10 Years of Breeding Gains Through One Trait
Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent higher than Roundup Ready soybeans based on 73 Monsanto field trials from 2004-2007
9%
7%
9%
7%
11%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2004 2005 2006 2007
% Y
ield
In
cre
as
e o
ve
r R
ou
nd
up
Re
ad
y Near-Isoline Comparisons:
Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready
4 YEAR
AVERAGE
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS:
SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL OPPORTUNITY
R&D Pipeline
Roundup Ready 2 Yield
STATUS:
Phase 4
PRE-LAUNCH
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Roundup Ready 2 Yield will provide soybeans that are tolerant to the Roundup family of herbicides with a 7-11% yield increase compared toRoundup Ready soybeans
VALUE:
LAUNCH-
COUNTRY:U.S.
LAUNCH-
COUNTRY ACRE
OPPORTUNITY1:
70M
LAUNCH PLANS:
2009: 1-2M ACRES
2010: 5-6M ACRES
2009 PRICING: $69-$722/ACRE
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1
Weed controlCurrent Roundup Readysoybean platform will retail for $49-$52/acre in 2009
2Improved yield7-11% increase; average of 9% over 4 years of field trials
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where trait could have technological fit. Opportunity does not reflect acres that may be planted to a competitive trait or acres required for insect-resistance management (IRM) set-aside refuges
2. Reflects seamless prcing to farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by seed treatment
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where trait could have technological fit. Opportunity does not reflect acres that may be planted to a competitive trait or acres required for insect-resistance management (IRM) set-aside refuges
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
R&D Pipeline
Insect-Protected Soybeans with Roundup Ready 2 Yield
STATUS: Phase 3
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Insect-protected soybeans use Bt technology widely adopted in corn and cotton to control insect pests, especially economically important pests for Brazilian farmers. The Bt trait is combined with Roundup Ready 2 Yield
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY: Brazil
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRE OPPORTUNITY1:
50M
2020 COMMERCIAL
VALUE2:
$150-$300M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Insecticide substitutionBased on 2 current sprays costing almost $6/acre total
2Improved yield4+% increase over chemical insecticides
Insect-Protected Soybeans Are First-Ever Monsanto Trait Developed Exclusively for Non-U.S. Opportunity
TIPTON, GA - FIELD EFFICACY TRIAL – 2007
2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL
PROOF OF CONTROL
Insect-protected soybeans with Roundup Ready 2 Yield technology demonstrated significant protection from key lepidopteran pests, including soybean looper, in 2007 tests
CONTROL
(NO INSECTICIDE)
WITH GENE
(NO INSECTICIDE)
R & D PIPELINE
12
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
16 top-performing events advanced to Latin America trials. Lead events showing strong yield advantages over conventional controls in both trials.
Higher-yielding trait will be stacked on top of Roundup Ready 2 Yield and other soybean-pipeline traits.
Higher-Yielding Soybeans Continue to Demonstrate Improved Yield Over Conventional Controls
R&D Pipeline
Higher-Yielding Soybeans Family:
Lead Project
STATUS: Phase 2
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key genes
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRES1:
45M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldTargeting yield improvement of 6-10%
R & D PIPELINE
NEW:2007/08 HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEAN
AGRONOMIC TESTING VERSUS CONTROLS
7.1% 6.0% 6.2% 10.2% 5.4% 8.8% 4.6% 10.5% 2.2% 10.3%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5
Ave
rag
e Y
ield
Ad
va
nta
ge
(bu
/a in
cre
as
e o
ve
r c
on
tro
l)
Season 1: 2007 U.S. Field Trials (18 locations)
Season 2: 2007/08 LA Field Trials (12 locations)
PRODUCT
CONCEPT
TARGET
RANGE
Percentage yield difference vs. control:
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION 13
14
SmartStax Corn Upgrades Triple Stack Corn Through Potential Refuge Reduction and Improved Insect Control
Projected SmartStax Value: On-Farm
+ Increased Yield (per-acre and on-farm)
YIELD COMPONENTYIELD
BENEFIT1
PER-ACRE
Improved consistency: Primary pests
1-2%
Improved protection: Secondary pests
1-2%
ON-FARM
Reduced refuge 3-6%
Total Estimated Yield Benefit 4-10%
+Flexibility to move to one technology platform on-farm
+ Durability
+Flexibility to increase planting populations
+ Platform for future traits
+ Access to superior seed
= Total Projected SmartStax Value1. Yield benefit reflects expected yield benefit above triple-stack standard, on a
per-acre and whole-farm basis as noted. Ranges may overlap
SmartStax Value:
Refuge Reduction Considerations
U.S. EPA requires set-aside refuge
for current single-mode-of-action
insect-protected traits in corn
Farmers in Illinois in 2007 reported
average 20 bu/acre yield difference
between YieldGard VT Triple and
refuge acres
80%
20%
20 BU/AC1
Yield Differential
R & D PIPELINE
CONTROL HYBRID
(76 BU/AC)
WITH GENE
(94 BU/AC)
SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007
2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers Visual Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions
2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL
PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT
Water stress exposure during different stages of development can have significant effect on corn yield; Monsanto’s lead drought-tolerance trait shows a significant yield advantage compared with controls under drought stress
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
R&D Pipeline
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family:
Lead Project
HIT Project Phase 3
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitations
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRES1:
55M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1
Improved yieldTargeting 6-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments
R & D PIPELINE
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION 15
Second-Generation Drought-Tolerant Corn Targeted to Expand Reach
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
R&D Pipeline
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family:
Second-Generation Project
STATUS: Phase 2
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitations
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRES1:
55M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1
Improved yieldTargeting 6-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments
2Water substitutionVariable costs in pumped irrigation of >$100/ acre
(All three events significant @ p≤0.10); Statistical significance determined by ANOVA (2006) or nonparametric test (2007)
Drought Efficacy for Second-Gen Events
Yie
ld D
iffe
ren
ce O
ver
Co
ntr
ols
(%
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
EVENT 1EVENT 2 EVENT 3 EVENT 1EVENT 2 EVENT 3
2006 2007
HIGHER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT
AVERAGE YIELD: 166 BU/AC
LOWER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT
AVERAGE YIELD: 53 BU/AC
PRODUCT
CONCEPT
TARGET
RANGE
KE
Y O
PP
OR
TU
IN
IT
Y
SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS
High annual
precipitation
Low annual
precipitation
Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
Second generation demonstrates performance over broad range of stress conditions in both low and high-yielding environments
Potential for a broad acreage fit across all acres planted
IRRIGATED
8-12M Acres
WESTERN
DRYLAND
10-12M Acres
STABILITY
60-70M Acres
KE
Y R
ES
ULT
S
EXTENDING LEADERSHIP
16PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
In Continued Field Testing, Nitrogen-Utilization Lead Shows Yield Improvement Under Normal Nitrogen
LEAD PERFORMANCE UNDER NORMAL
NITROGEN CONDITIONS
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
R&D Pipeline
Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family:
Lead Project
STATUS: Phase 1
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently, exploring potential to boost yield under normal nitrogen conditions or stabilize it in low nitrogen environments
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRES1:
55M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldYield improvement in normal nitrogen environments
2Nitrogen reductionImproving yield in low nitrogen environments
Under normal nitrogen conditions, Nitrogen-Utilization lead has demonstrated yield advantages in multiple backgrounds over multiple years
Yie
ld I
ncre
as
e (
bu
/Ac
)
TRIALS IN MULTIPLE
HYBRID BACKGROUNDS
(16 LOC)
Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested. Same bar color in different tests and different years indicates same hybrid was used.
All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.
2006
2006 YIELD TRIALS:
SUFFICIENT N LEVELS
(37 LOC TOTAL)
2007
2007 YIELD TRIALS:
SUFFICIENT N LEVELS
(20 LOC TOTAL)
Statistically significant @ p≤0.10*
-2
TRIALS IN MULTIPLE
HYBRID BACKGROUNDS
(15 LOC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
* * * * * *
2005
*
2005
YIELD
TRIALS:
(23 LOC
TOTAL)
R & D PIPELINE
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION 17
On Track in 2008, Growth Drivers Continue to Set Stage for Growth Through 2012
SUMMARY
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F
All Other Agricultural Productivity
Roundup and Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides
Seeds & Genomics
TOTAL GROSS
PROFIT GROWS
TO >2X
2007 BASELINE
GROWTH COMES
FROM SEEDS &
TRAITS
GROSS PROFIT OUTLOOK BY SEGMENT
2007-2012F
U.S. Corn Int’l Corn Soybeans Cotton Vegetables R&D Pipeline
• Expand seed footprint
• Drive trait penetration
• Establish and expand seed footprint
• Drive trait penetration
• Prepare for commercial launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield
• Accelerate U.S. traits and breeding
• Drive int’l traits
• Reinvigorate margins
• Integrate DeRuiter purchase
• Largest-ever R&D field effort
SmartStax Platform
Accelerated trait platform
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Platform
Globalized Cotton Platform
$1B Vegetable Platform
Game-Changing Launches
18
19
Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution
SUMMARY
More demand requires more YIELD
More yield requires more INNOVATION
More innovation delivers more GROWTH
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity: