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FOURTH-QUARTER and FOURTH QUARTER and FISCAL-YEAR 2008 FINANCIAL RESULTS FINANCIAL RESULTS October 8, 2008

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Page 1: monsanto 0_07_08

FOURTH-QUARTER and FOURTH QUARTER and FISCAL-YEAR 2008 FINANCIAL RESULTSFINANCIAL RESULTS

October 8, 2008

Page 2: monsanto 0_07_08

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results maybased on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company s actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and d l t ti iti th t f j l it d l t l t d t f i i ddevelopment activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company'sthe agriculture business or the company s facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company s most recent reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

T d kTrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2008 Monsanto Company

2

© 2008 Monsanto Company

Page 3: monsanto 0_07_08

Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” and earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis. We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as on-going EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net p g g p ,income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the U it d St t F th th GAAP fi i l t b bl t i il dUnited States. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end of this presentation. Monsanto is unable to provide a reconciliation of the 2009 ROC goal to projected net income and financial position for 2009 with out unreasonable effort. As shown in the ROC reconciliation for the previous year the calculation of ROC is complex and Monsanto does not have sufficient information at this point inprevious year, the calculation of ROC is complex, and Monsanto does not have sufficient information at this point in the fiscal year to reasonably estimate its operating profit after-tax and average capital for 2009 due to market and other conditions that our outside of Monsanto’s control.

3

Page 4: monsanto 0_07_08

FY08 Full-Year and Fourth-Quarter Financial Results PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

Fourth-Quarter

Fourth-Quarter Change Fiscal-Year Fiscal-Year ChangeQuarter

2008Quarter

2007Change 2008 2007 Change

Net Sales $2,051M $1,518M 35% $11,365M $8,349M 36%

Gross Profit $960M $643M 49% $6,177M $4,230M 46%Gross Profit $960M $643M 49% $6,177M $4,230M 46%

Diluted EPS on an Ongoing Basis $(0.03) $(0.18) 83% $3.64 $1.98 84%

As a Percent of Net Sales:

Gross Profit 47% 42% 54% 51%

SG&A 35% 39% 20% 22%

R&D 15% 15% FLAT 9% 9% FLAT

P iti t i t i

4

Positive movement in metric

Page 5: monsanto 0_07_08

PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

FY08 Full-Year and Fourth-Quarter Segment Gross Profit Results

Fourth-Quarter

2008

Fourth-Quarter

2007Change Fiscal-Year

2008Fiscal-Year

2007 Change

Gross Profit:

CORN SEED & TRAITS $151M $178M (15)% $2,174M $1,721M 26%

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS $76M $7M 986% $725M $588M 23%

COTTON SEED & TRAITS $61M $45M 36% $313M $267M 17%

$124M $57M 118% $394M $267M 48%VEGETABLE SEEDS $124M $57M 118% $394M $267M 48%ALL OTHER SEEDS & TRAITS $97M $72M 35% $251M $171M 47%

Total Seeds & Genomics $509M $359M 42% $3,857M $3,014M 28%Total Ag Productivity $451M $284M 59% $2,320M $1,216M 91%

As a Percent of Net Sales:

CORN SEED & TRAITS 43% 49% 61% 61% FLATSOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS 69% 21% 62% 65%

COTTON SEED & TRAITS 69% 76% 70% 84%VEGETABLE SEEDS 56% 34% 53% 44%

ALL OTHER SEEDS & TRAITS 60% 61% 55% 53%Total Seeds & Genomics 54% 48% 61% 61% FLAT

Total Ag Productivity 41% 37% 46% 36%

5

g y % % % %

Positive movement in metric

Negative movement in metric

Page 6: monsanto 0_07_08

PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

Over 70% of the $2.8 Billion of Operating Cash Generated Invested in Acquisitions, Technology and Capital in FY08

USES OF CASHPERCENT OF $2.8B OPERATING CASH USED BY CATEGORY: FY2008

2%

13%

37%

Cash Generation

FY2008 Free Cash Flow: $772MCASH PRIORITIES

15%

CASH PRIORITIES

Bolster direct returns to shareownersSupport commercial growth through capital spending

33%

through capital spendingInvest in future growth through R&DExpand the core through

t t i i iti

Di id d

Capital Spending

Acquisitions and Technology Collaborations

strategic acquisitions

6

Share Repurchase

Dividends

Other

Page 7: monsanto 0_07_08

2009 Again Projects Double-Digit Earnings Growth and

Strong Cash Generation

7

2008 2009F

EARNINGS

ONGOING EARNINGS PER SHARE

$3.64>80% GROWTH

FROM 2007

$4.20-$4.40~15-20% GROWTH

FROM 2008

Seeds & Genomics Gross Profit $3.9B $4.5-$4.6B

Corn Seed & Traits Gross Profit $2.2B ~$2.8B

Soybean Seed & Traits Gross Profit $725M ~$700M

Cotton Seed & Traits Gross Profit $313M ~$300M

Vegetable Seeds Gross Profit $394M ~$500M

All Other Seed & Traits Gross Profit $251M ~$200M

Roundup And All Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides Gross Profit

$2.0B $2.3-2.4B

All Other Ag Productivity Gross Profit $344M ~$400M

CASH MANAGEMENT AND SPENDING

FREE CASH FLOW $772M ~$1.8B

Operating Cash $2.8B >$3B

Capital Expenditures $918M ~$1B

SG&A as a Percent of Sales 20% 19% Range

R&D as a Percent of Sales 9% 9.5%-10% Range

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Page 8: monsanto 0_07_08

2009 Earnings Expected to Follow Seasonality of Recent Fiscal Years

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Fiscal Years

Q1• Earnings: Driven by Latin America both

Q4• Historical loss reflecting full SG&A and R&D • Earnings: Driven by Latin America – both

seed and Roundup sales• Early orders begin for U.S. seeds, however

sales are not booked until shipment• Vegetables and Roundup and

other glyphosate-based herbicides

• Historical loss reflecting full SG&A and R&D spend against smallest sales base in year

• Earnings: Top line generated primarily by Roundup and other glyphosate-based herbicides and vegetables

SE

PT

other glyphosate based herbicides sales spread relatively evenly throughout year

• Cash: Reflects pre-pays associated with early U.S. orders

• Cash: One of primary periods of cash collections, reflecting U.S. season Q1Q4

S

JUNE ▲

• Second strongest quarter behind Q2• Earnings: Driven by seeds and traits

• Historically largest quarter, increasing seed-and-trait shift into Q2

• Earnings: Driven by U S seeds andQ2Q3

DECEMBER ▼JUNE ▲

Annual Earnings Calendar

Earnings: Driven by seeds and traits– Continued soybean– Strongest quarter for cotton, reflecting U.S.

and India seasons

• Earnings: Driven by U.S. seeds and traits

– Particularly N. Hemisphere corn and U.S. corn traits

– Soybean seed and trait split roughlyevenly with Q3

C h U f h t f d ki it l d

MA

RC

H ▼

8

Q3

• Cash: Use of cash to fund working capital needs of business begins to build, reaching peak in mid Q4

Q2

Page 9: monsanto 0_07_08

Monsanto’s Pricing Model Aimed at Total Value Created; Shared with Farmer

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

YieldGard VT TriplePRICING TO VALUE EXAMPLE: 2009

Improved Yield1

Improved YieldUPDATE: Yield-advantage value at 3 yearaverage commodity price

IMPROVED YIELD (BU/AC): 15-20

UPDATE: 3 YEAR COMMODITY PRICE: $4.00

$60-$80

I di t B fit 2

g y p• One year back, current year and forward year• Value shared with farmers

Indirect BenefitsQuantified benefits such as convenience andIndirect Benefits2

INDIRECT BENEFITS: $5

Incremental Value Created ( + ) $65-$85

Quantified benefits, such as convenience and peace of mind• Value shared with farmers

Replacement ValueF t t f ld h i d f

PRICING APPROACHUPDATE: Per-Acre Trait Cost3: $29-$49

Factors costs farmers would have incurred for substitute insect and weed control• 100% of replacement value is captured

UPDATE: Replacement Value4 ($11-$19)

Incremental Farmer Cost: $18-$30

Incremental Value Shared: 65-70%

PRICING APPROACHPercentage of incremental value shared ultimately determined by market research, pricing simulations and focus groups to assess:• Market Share Implications

9

1. Monsanto estimates, based on better insect and weed control over conventional options2. Monsanto estimates, based on farmer surveys quantifying benefits such as convenience and

peace of mind3. Retail price range for YieldGard VT Triple in 2009, at seeding rate of 2.7 acres per unit4. Subtracts costs farmers would have spent had they not used a trait package

• Market Share Implications• Trait Penetration Effect• Competitive Reaction

Page 10: monsanto 0_07_08

Yield-Enhancing Technology Creates Value – Returning $1.50-$3 For Every Dollar Spent By Farmers in Corn

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

170

$ $ y p y

U.S. FARMER RETURN ON INVESTMENT: 1983-2008F

130

140

150

160

/ac 32

90

100

110

120Bu

32bu/acFARMER RETURN OF

1.5X – 3XPER DOLLAR SPENT

ON YIELD-CREATING TECHNOLOGY@ COMMODITY PRICE RANGE OF $2-$4/BU

80PRE-BIOTECH: 1983-1996 POST-BIOTECH: 1996-2008F

AVERAGE YIELD DURING PERIOD: 115.6 bu/ac AVERAGE YIELD DURING

PERIOD: 138.3 bu/acANNUAL YIELD GAIN: 1.7 bu/ac ANNUAL YIELD GAIN: 2.6 bu/ac

@ COMMODITY PRICE RANGE OF $2 $4/BU

YIELD-RELATED

Seed/ Chem/ Equip/ Labor $27.07/ac $43.24/ac

SCARCITY-RELATED

$ $OD

UC

TIO

N

CO

ST

S

Land Rent $19.33/ac $52.02/ac

Fertilizer $6.23/ac $94.90/ac

PR

O C

10Source: USDA, Land Rent Averaged using Corn & Soybean, Doane Ag, dmrkynetec data, Yield is calculated using a 3 year rolling average, (32 Yield is 2.6 bu/ac/yr *12 years). 2008F Yield is April 08 Doane Ag. Return – Monsanto Estimate

Page 11: monsanto 0_07_08

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Increased 2009 and 2012 Targets for Roundup Reflect Sustainability Even As Supply-Demand Comes Into Balance

Roundup and Other Glyphosate-Based

Herbicides

Sustainability Even As Supply Demand Comes Into Balance

ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES: BRANDED AND NON-BRANDED TRENDS – 2004-2008

3002009 Forecast

GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $2.3-$2.4B

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER GALLON):

Above $16-$18

250

300

allo

ns)

BrandedNon-Branded

$16 $182012 Forecast

GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $1.9B

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER GALLON): $16-$18

150

200ba

l Vol

ume

(in g

a

50

100Glo

b

GLOBAL VOLUME (GALLONS): 209M 215M 235M 252M 257M

BRANDED PRICE BAND $11 $13 $11 $13 $11 $13 >$11 $13 Above

02004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(PER GALLON): $11-$13 $11-$13 $11-$13 >$11-$13 $16-$18TOTAL ROUNDUP AND

OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES GROSS PROFIT:

$703M $637M $648M $854M $2.0B

11

Page 12: monsanto 0_07_08

With Different Core Structure, Credit Access For Farmers Remains Solid As Purchase-Season Approaches

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Remains Solid As Purchase Season Approaches

U.S. FARM BUSINESS DEBT:SHARE BY CATEGORY, 2000-2006

U.S. Farm CreditLENDING SYSTEM

35

40

45

SHARE BY CATEGORY, 2000 2006

t

42.4%

LENDING SYSTEM

• One-third of farmers get financing for the Farm Credit System –government-backed lending

k d f i l

20

25

30

enta

ge o

f Mar

ket

32.6%

17.2%

earmarked for agriculture• Around 40 percent of

farmers tap into regional and community banks• Rely on core deposits for

funding

0

5

10

15

Perc

e

5.3%

2.6%

funding• Continue to hold interest rates

steady and lines of credit open• 15-20 percent use credit

lines provided by agricultural suppliers0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Commercial Banks Farm Credit SystemIndividuals & Others Life Insurance CompaniesUSDA FSA

g pp

12

USDA FSA

Source: USDA Economic Research ServiceYear-end 2006 preliminary estimates shown

Page 13: monsanto 0_07_08

FY2008 Performance Accelerates 2012 Opportunity; Monsanto Increases 2012 GP Target

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

Monsanto Increases 2012 GP Target

GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2007-2012F

2012 GROSS PROFIT TARGETRELATIVE TO 2007 BASELINE

T t l G P fit $9.5 -

$8.6-9.1B$8-8.5B$8,000

$10,000

>2X

$9.5-$9.75B

)

Total Gross Profit $$9.75B

BUSINESS DETAIL

Roundup and Other Glyphosate-Based Herbicides

~$1.9B~2 25X

$4,230$4,000

$6,000 ~2X2007

BASELINE

>2X2007

BASELINE

GP

(in m

illio

ns) Herbicides

All Other Ag Productivity ~$300M

Seeds & Genomics $7.3-$7.5B

~2.25X2007

BASELINE

$0

$2,000

BASELINE ORIGINAL TARGET

MID-YEAR UPDATE

CURRENT GUIDANCE

$Corn Seed &

Traits 2.6-2.7x

Soybean Seed & Traits ~2x

BASELINE TARGET UPDATE GUIDANCE

2007 2012F•INCREASED ROUNDUPGP TARGET TO $1.8B

•BETTER GROWTH IN SEEDS & TRAITS

•2008

Cotton Seed & Traits ~2x

Vegetable Seeds >2.5x

13

•2008 ACQUISITIONS

•ROUNDUP GP TARGET OF $1.9B

Page 14: monsanto 0_07_08

While Metrics and Projections Vary, Fundamentals of Demand-Driven Environment for Grain Remain Strong

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

Demand Driven Environment for Grain Remain Strong

USDA LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS:CORN AND SOYBEAN TOTAL TRADE – 2006-2017

Demand OutlookCORN AND SOYBEAN TOTAL TRADE 2006 2017

50

60

70

105

110

• USDA projections to 2017 anticipate tight continuation of demand-driven environment for grain

• Global corn trade expected t 15 t i th ton

s

Soybea

20

30

40

50

90

95

100 to grow 15 percent in that timeframe• Imports by China and Mexico

help spur demand• USDA assumption on U.S.

planted corn acres: ~90Mmill

ion

met

ric to

ans –m

illion metr

0

10

80

85 • Global soybean trade grows 40 percent by 2017• 80 percent of growth is driven

by China• USDA assumption on U.S.

planted soybean acres: 70M

Cor

n –

ric tons

Corn Total Trade Soybean Total Trade

planted soybean acres: ~70M

14Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017, available at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/OCE081/

Page 15: monsanto 0_07_08

Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand Innovation and Execution

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

Demand, Innovation and Execution

M t ’ Si l Phil h O t it

More demand requires more YIELD

Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:

q

More yield requires more INNOVATIONy q

More innovation delivers more GROWTHMore innovation delivers more GROWTH

15

Page 16: monsanto 0_07_08

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Reconciliation of Free Cash FlowReconciliation of Free Cash Flow

$ Millions

Fiscal Year2009

ForecastFiscal Year

2008Fiscal Year

2007

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $3,000 $2,799 $1,854

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities (1 200) (2 027) (1 911)Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities (1,200) (2,027) (1,911)

Free Cash Flow $1,800 $772 ($57)

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A (102) (583)

Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A 77 46

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A $747 ($594)

Fiscal YearReconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS

$ per share

Fiscal Year 2009

ForecastFiscal Year

2008Fiscal Year

2007Fourth

Quarter 2008Fourth

Quarter 2007

Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share $4.20-$4.40 $3.62 $1.79 ($0.31) ($0.39)

Solutia Claim Settlement -- ($0.23) -- -- --

Loss (Income) on Discontinued Operations -- ($0.04) ($0.15) ($0.01) ($0.13)

In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the De Ruiter Acquisition -- $0.29 -- $0.29 --

In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the Delta & Pine Land (D&PL) Acquisition -- -- $0.34 -- $0.34

Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share from Ongoing Business $4.20-$4.40 $3.64 $1.98 ($0.03) ($0.18)

16

Page 17: monsanto 0_07_08

17

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Reconciliation of Return on Capital

Total Monsanto Company and Subsidiaries:

Fiscal Year 2008 Fiscal Year 2007

Operating Profit After-tax (excluding certain items)

$2,157 $1,106

Average Capital $8,967 $7,532

Return on Capital 24.1% 14.7%

Operating Profit After-tax (excluding certain items):

Net Income $2,024 $993

Adjustment for certain items, after-tax:

2008 In-Process R & D Related to the De Rutier Acquisition

$161 __

2007 In-Process R & D Related to the D&PL Acquisition

__ $186

(Income) on Discontinued Operations $(17) $(80)

Interest (Income) Expense – Net of Taxes $(11) $7

Operating Profit After-tax (excluding certain items)

$2,157 $1,106

$ Millions

As of Aug. 31, 2008

As of Aug. 31, 2007

Average Capital:

Short-Term and Long-Term Debt $1,816 $1,420

Shareowners’ Equity 9,374 $7,503

Cash and Cash Equivalents $(1,613) $(866)

Cash for Operations $150 $150

Total Capital $9,727 $8,207

Prior Period Capital $8,207 $6,857

Average Capital $8,967 $7,532