mo*lezing joachim spangenberg: een groene economie binnen de grenzen van onze planeet

Beyond the Green EconomyBeyond the Green EconomyPathways Towards a Sustainable FuturePathways Towards a Sustainable Future

Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology, Halle, Germany

Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07

Presentation at the Presentation at the MO*LectureMO*Lecture

“A Green Economy within the Limits of Our Planet“A Green Economy within the Limits of Our Planet””BeursschouwburgBeursschouwburg, , BrussselsBrusssels, , October10October10thth 20122012

Ecology, Halle, Germany

Where do we come from?Where do we come from?


Western consumption patterns conquer the world


Ex-novation is not in sight.

Inhabitants with a per capita income above 200 US $/day consume most resources

Inhabitants with a per capita income below 1 US $ a day (total: 3.5 billion) suffer from


below 1 US $ a day (total: 3.5 billion) suffer from energy and resource poverty. It will not change as long as purchasing power decides access

Where do we go toWhere do we go to??For instance:For instance:

the Climate Challenge the Climate Challenge


the Climate Challenge the Climate Challenge

Harbour Harbour citiescities will will bebe atat riskrisk


Concepcion, Chile

Rice paddies and gardens Rice paddies and gardens are flooded from typhoons…are flooded from typhoons…


Luzon 2009

… or from high river water… or from high river water


Mekong Delta, Vietnam 2011

Low Low freshwaterfreshwater supplysupply forforhouseholdshouseholds, , industryindustry and and cattlecattle


Agra, India

For instance:For instance:Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services


Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem Ecosystem servicesservices::ForestForest biodiversitybiodiversity


safeguardssafeguardsfreshwaterfreshwater supplysupply

Doi Inthanon, Thailand

Ecosystem services: Coastalprotectionby


bymangoveforests(Red river delta, Vietnam)

Cultural ecosystemservices:

Symbols, values and identity


identity

What could we do?What could we do?The Green Economy PolicyThe Green Economy Policy


The Green Economy PolicyThe Green Economy Policy

Is this the solution?Is this the solution?


Promises:

Resourceefficiency meansless demand, lesssupply conflicts,


supply conflicts, similar services, less waste and pollution, and often more jobs

ReducingReducing thethe climate climate intensityintensityof of productsproducts. . CircularCircular economyeconomythroughthrough recyclingrecycling??


250%

300%

Reducing production impacts: increasingmaterial productivity 1980-2005

Industrial countries Developing countries

MP=$ GDP / t DMC

3175

141

MP=$ GDP / t DMC250%

300%

MP=$ GDP / t DMC


Source: M. Fischer-Kowalski, socialecology, Vienna

50%

100%

150%

200%

EU 15 USA Japan

3175

1486

1258

50%

100%

150%

200%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Brazil China India

271

109

Innovative environmental Innovative environmental

technologies technologies combining combining

emission reduction and emission reduction and

recycling are needed recycling are needed

but not really new but not really new

and insufficient.and insufficient.


E.g.: Metal dust recovery system, enforced by regional kings „to avoid damage to neighbouring fields and grazing grounds”.

Source: Agricola, G. (1556). De re metallica

and insufficient.and insufficient.

HoweverHowever• We are on an emission trajectory towards 4 to 6°C

global warming, and no political will to

change that is detectable on a global scale.

• Technical improvements may be able to half

resource consumption per unit of GDP.


resource consumption per unit of GDP.

• With a growth rate of 3%, this gain - even if fully

realised - is overcompensated by 2040 (and

with lower growth rates, current public debt

reductions plans run into additional

problems).

Resource efficiency is a necessary, but Resource efficiency is a necessary, but not a sufficient policy strategynot a sufficient policy strategy

What we need is absolute decoupling of economic development and resource consumption, not a relative one with increasing emissions and waste generation.

�Rebound effect: The money saved through efficiency (win-win solutions) is spent, consuming resources


(win-win solutions) is spent, consuming resources and compensating (part of) the efficiency gains.

�Jevons‘ Paradox: Efficiency decreases the relative cost of a resource, generating incentives to use more of it, and it stimulates growth and thus resource use.

∑ Conclusion: Efficiency without skimming off (part of) the gains will lead to perverseoutcomes.

A Green Economy is less than A Green Economy is less than Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development


reaching the MDGs (a frequent illusion),

but it offers opportunities to overcome the

failures of past market radicalism (too much

was dismantled trusting self-regulation)

A regulation example: feed-in tariffs

A Green Economy is not per seA Green Economy is not per se


A regulation example: feed-in tariffs

- strengthen local participation;

- allow for community & coop - ownership;

- has mobilised billions of private capital for

restoring and protecting

the public goods

What should we do?What should we do?Sustainability PolicySustainability Policy


Sustainability PolicySustainability Policy

““Sustainable Sustainable development is development is development development that that meets the needs of the meets the needs of the present without present without compromising the compromising the ability of future ability of future generations to meet generations to meet


generations to meet generations to meet their own needs. Itheir own needs. It t contains within it two contains within it two key conceptskey concepts two key two key concepts: …concepts: …

(definition cont.)1. The concept of “needs”,

in particular the essential

needs of the world’s poor, to

which overriding priority

should be given, and

2. The idea of limitations


2. The idea of limitations

imposed by the state of

technology and social

organisation on the

environment’s ability to meet

present and future needs.”(WCED 1987, (WCED 1987, p.43p.43))

According to thisdefinition, at Rio+20

Sustainability was not on the agenda

Rio `92: Sustainable


Sustainable Development

Joburg `02: Sustainable Growth

Rio `12:Sustained Growth

A really long way to goA really long way to go• from low tech low resource societies • via low tech high consumption and high tech

high resources • to high tech low resource societies


Local resources for local use support income & jobs

but not world market & high tech production.

Re-domesticate he money, keep it local not national

“Before we “Before we come to a come to a hasty hasty decision, decision, in in particular particular

Recognise the urgency !Recognise the urgency !


particular particular the growth the growth impact of impact of such such policies policies has to be has to be assessed.” assessed.”

Sustainable Sustainable developmentdevelopmentaffectsaffects all all systemssystems levelslevels


ItIt requiresrequires a a newnew developmentdevelopment

model model ((asas thethe European/US model European/US model hashas failedfailed))


Sustainability Sustainability requiresrequiresconvergentconvergent developmentdevelopment


… have achieved affluence, causing all the

environmental problems mentioned.

… are now in the transition from an

15% of the world population…15% of the world population…

60% of the world population…60% of the world population…


… are now in the transition from an

agricultural to an industrial sciety.

CatchingCatching upup isis nono solutionsolution, but an , but an illusionillusion. .

OurOur consumptionconsumption patternspatternscannotcannot bebe generalisedgeneralised

… to certain activities, in order to allow

replenishing of natural resources or

naturalcapital, justice and social equality.

The alternative is collapse (e.g. fisheries),

A really A really Green Economy Green Economy requires limitations ... requires limitations ...


The alternative is collapse (e.g. fisheries),

and with it a complete loss of jobs.

ToTo bebe reallyreally inclusiveinclusive,,it needs to include redistribution of wealth,

not only of income, reduce polarisation

… involves the emergence not only of a new

economy, but also of a new society. We

should shape it consciously,

with justice a key orientation: with limits to

growth, (re-)distribution becomes central.

A A Great Transition…Great Transition…

5 P’s on/off the agenda5 P’s on/off the agenda


Peace – what happened to the peace dividend?

Power – where has empowerment gone (Ag.21)?

Planet – Resource efficiency is not enough

People – social cohesion is crumbling

Prospertity – for all, all profit for the few?

5 P’s on/off the agenda5 P’s on/off the agenda

ThankThank youyouforfor youryour

attentionattention


attentionattentionForFor thethe presentationpresentationand and otherother paperspapers seesee

http://seri.academia.edu/JoachimHSpangenberghttp://seri.academia.edu/JoachimHSpangenberg

mo*lezing joachim spangenberg: een groene economie binnen de grenzen van onze planeet

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