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  • 7/25/2019 Module 4 slides.ppt

    1/47

    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Response Time

    Introduction

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Example

    -Patients arrive, on average, every five minutes- It takes ten minutes to serve a patient- Patients are willing to wait

    What is the implied utiliation of the !ar!er shop"

    #ow long will patients have to wait"

    Physician office

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Example

    -Patients arrive, on average, every five minutes- It takes four minutes to serve a patient- Patients are willing to wait

    What is the utiliation of the !ar!er shop"

    #ow long will patients have to wait"

    Physician office

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    $%&& $%'& $%(& $%)& $%*& $%+& %&&

    Patient

    rrivalTime

    .erviceTime

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    )

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    +

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    .omewhat 1dd .ervice Process

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Patient

    rrival

    Time

    .ervice

    Time

    '

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    )

    *

    +

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    Time

    $%'& $%(& $%)& $%*& $%+& %&&$%&&

    Patient 1 Patient 3 Patient 5 Patient 7 Patient 9 Patient 11

    Patient 2 Patient 4 Patient 6 Patient 8 Patient 10 Patient 12

    &

    '

    (

    )

    ( min2 ) min2 * min2 + min2 / min2 $ min2

    Service times

    Numberofcases

    3ore Realistic .ervice Process

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    $%&& $%'& $%(& $%)& $%*& $%+&

    Inventory

    (Patients at

    ab!

    +

    *

    )

    (

    '

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    %&&

    $%&& $%'& $%(& $%)& $%*& $%+& %&&

    "ait time

    Service time

    Patient

    rrivalTime

    .erviceTime

    '

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    )*

    +

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    4aria!ility 5eads to Waiting Time

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    The 6urse of 4aria!ility - .ummary

    4aria!ility hurts flowWith !uffers% we see waiting times even though there exists excess capacity

    4aria!ility is 78 and it does not average itself out

    9ew models are needed to understand these effects

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    8/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Waiting time models% The

    need for excess capacity

    Response Time

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    9/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Processing

    3odeling 4aria!ility in :low

    Inflow8emand process is ;randomprocessing times?

    Outflow

    9o loss, waiting onlyThis re@uires uA'&&B1utflow=Inflow

    Flow Rate

    3inimumC8emand, 6apacityD = 8emand = 'a

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    10/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    verage flowtime #

    #$eoretica %o& #ime

    Ftiliation '&&B

    Increasin'

    ariabiity

    Waiting Time Formula

    .ervice time factor

    Ftiliation factor

    4aria!ility factor

    +

    =

    21

    22pa CVCV

    nutilizatio

    nutilizatioTimeActivityqueueinTime

    Inflow 1utflow

    Inventorywaiting I)

    Entry to system 8eparture7egin .ervice

    Time in @ueue #) .ervice Time*

    :low Time #+#),*

    %o& rate

    The Waiting Time :ormula

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    Example% Walk-in 8oc

    9ewt Philly needs to get some medical advise2 #e knows that his 8oc, :rancoise, has a patient arrive every )&minutes >with a standard deviation of )& minutes?2 typical consultation lasts '+ minutes >with a standard

    deviation of '+ minutes?2 The 8oc has an open-access policy and does not offer appointments2If 9ewt walks into :rancoisGs practice at '&am, when can he expect to leave the practice again"

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    12/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    .ummary

    Even though the utiliation of a process might !e less than '&&B, it might still re@uire long customer wait time

    4aria!ility is the root cause for this effect

    s utiliation approaches '&&B, you will see a very steep increase in the wait time

    If you want fast service, you will have to hold excess capacity

  • 7/25/2019 Module 4 slides.ppt

    13/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    3ore on Waiting time models

    .taffing to 8emand

    Response Time

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    14/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    +

    =

    +

    21

    221)1(2pa

    m CVCV

    nutilizatio

    nutilizatio

    m

    timeActivityqueueinTime

    Waiting Time Formula for Multiple (m) Serers

    Inflow 1utflow

    Inventorywaiting I)

    Entry to system 8eparture7egin .ervice

    Time in @ueue #) .ervice Time*

    :low Time #+#),*

    Inventoryin service I*

    :low rate

    Waiting Time :ormula for 3ultiple, Parallel Resources

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    6ustomers send emails to a help desk of an online retailer every (minutes, on average, and the standard deviation of the inter-arrival timeis also ( minutes2 The online retailer has three employees answeringemails2 It takes on average * minutes to write a response email2 Thestandard deviation of the service times is ( minutes2

    Estimate the average customer wait !efore !eing served2

    Example% 1nline retailer

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    qp

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    .erver

    Inflow

    1utflow

    Inventorywaiting I)

    Entry tosystem

    8eparture7egin.ervice

    Waiting Time #) .ervice Time*

    :low Time #+#),*

    :low unit

    Inventoryin service I*

    Ftiliation >9ote% make sure A'?

    Time related measures

    Inventory related measures >:low rate=1-a?

    .ummary of Hueuing nalysis

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    17/47Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    6ustomers send emails to a help desk of an online retailer every (minutes, on average, and the standard deviation of the inter-arrival timeis also ( minutes2 The online retailer has three employees answeringemails2 It takes on average * minutes to write a response email2 Thestandard deviation of the service times is ( minutes2

    #ow many employees would we have to add to get the average waittime reduced to x minutes"

    .taffing 8ecision

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    What to 8o With .easonal 8ata

    Measure the true !eman! !ata

    Slice the !ata "# the hour ($%min& 'min)

    ppl# waiting mo!el in each slice

    5evel the demand

    ssume demand is ;stationary< within a slice

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    Target Wait Time >TWT?.ervice 5evel = Pro!a!ilityCWaiting TimeTWTDExample% 7ig 6all 6enter - starting point diagnostic% )&B of calls answered within (& seconds - target% &B of calls answered within (& seconds

    &

    &2(

    &2*

    &2/

    &2

    '

    & +& '&& '+& (&&

    Waiting time *secon!s+

    Fraction of

    customers who

    hae to wait ,secon!s or less "aitin' times for t$ose customers

    &$o .o not 'et serve. imme.iatey

    %raction of customers &$o 'et serve.

    &it$out &aitin' at a

    90/ of cas $a. to

    &ait 25 secon.s oress

    .ervice 5evels in Waiting .ystems

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    6apacity Pooling

    Response Time

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    In.e*en.ent esources

    2(m+1!

    Pooe. esources

    (m+2!

    3anagerial Responses to 4aria!ility% Pooling

    -,ample

    Processing time=* minutesInter-arrival time=+ minutes >at each server?m=', 6va=64p='

    T@ =

    Processing time=* minutesInter-arrival time=(2+ minutesm=(, 6va=64p='

    T@ =

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    &2&&

    '&2&&

    (&2&&

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    *&2&&

    +&2&&

    /&2&&

    $&2&&

    /&B /+B

    m='

    m=(

    m=+

    m='&

    $&B $+B &B +B 0&B 0+B

    WaitingTime #)

    Ftiliation u

    3anagerial Responses to 4aria!ility% Pooling

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    Pooling% .hifting the Efficient :rontier

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    .ummary

    What is a good wait time"

    :ire truck or IR."

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    5imitations of Pooling

    ssumes flexi!ility

    Increases complexity of work-flow

    6an increase the varia!ility of service time

    Interrupts the relationship with the customer one-face-to-the-customer

    Jroup clinics

    Electricity grid smart grid

    :lexi!le production plants

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    The Three Enemies of 1perations

    dditional costs due to varia!ility indemand and activity times

    Is associated with longer wait timesand or customer loss

    Re@uires process to hold excesscapacity >idle time?

    4aria!ility

    Fse of resources !eyond what isneeded to meet customer

    re@uirements 9ot adding value to the product,

    !ut adding cost

    Reducing the performance of theproduction system

    $ different types of waste

    WasteWork 4alue-adding

    WasteWork 4alue-adding

    Waste

    Inflexi!ility

    dditional costs incurred !ecause of supplydemand mismatches

    Waiting customers or Waiting >idle capacity?

    6apacity

    6ustomerdemand

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    .cheduling ccess

    Response Time

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    :low units are se@uenced in the waiting area >triage step?

    Provides an opportunity for us to move some units forwards and some !ackwards

    :irst-6ome-:irst-.erve

    - easy to implement- perceived fairness- lowest variance of waiting time

    .e@uence !ased on importance- emergency cases- identifying profita!le flow units

    3anagerial Responses to 4aria!ility% Priority Rulesin Waiting Time .ystems

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Service times

    9 minutes

    10 minutes

    4 minutes

    8 minutes

    9 min

    19 min

    23 min

    #ota &ait time 9,19,23+51min

    4 min

    12 min

    21 min

    #ota &ait time 4,13,21+38 min

    .hortest Processing Time Rule- 3inimies average waiting time- Pro!lem of having ;true< processing times

    3anagerial Responses to 4aria!ility% Priority Rulesin Waiting Time .ystems

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    1pen ccess

    ppointment systems

    ppointments

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Redesign the .erviceProcess

    Response Time

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Reasons for 5ong Response Times>nd Potential Improvement .trategies? Insufficient capacity on a permanent !asis

    =K Fnderstand what keeps the capacity low

    8emand fluctuation and temporal capacity shortfalls

    Fnpredicta!le wait times =K Extra capacity Reduce varia!ility in demand

    Predicta!le wait times =K .taff to demand Takt time

    5ong wait times !ecause of low priority=K lign priorities with customer value

    3any steps in the process poor internal process flow >often driven !y handoffsand rework loops?=K Redesign the service process

    http%www2minyanville2com!usinessmarketsarticlesdrive-thrus-emissions-fast-food-mcdonalds+'((&'&id((/'

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/drive-thrus-emissions-fast-food-mcdonalds/5/12/2010/id/28261http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/drive-thrus-emissions-fast-food-mcdonalds/5/12/2010/id/28261
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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    The 6ustomerGs Perspective

    Driving Parking Check-in Vitals Waiting PCP Appt. Check outLabs Drive home

    20 minutes

    #ow much time does a patient spend on a primary care encounter"

    Two types of wasted time%uxiliary activities re@uired to get to value add activities >result of process location lay-out?Wait time >result of !ottlenecks insufficient capacity?

    #ota vaue a.. time of a unit

    #ota time a unit is in t$e *rocess%o& #ime fficiency (or /#! +

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Process 3apping .ervice 7lue Prints

    .ource% Lves Pigneur

    Customer

    actions

    5ine of interaction

    Onstage

    actions

    5ine of visi!ility

    /ac0stage

    actions

    5ine of internalinteraction

    Support

    processes

    Walk into the

    !ranch talk toagent

    6ollect !asicinformation

    Pre pprovalprocessM set upworkflow accountresponsi!ility

    6ustomer

    supplies moredata

    Re@uest for moredata

    6ustomer

    supplies moredata

    Re@uest for moredata

    Pre pprovalprocessM set upworkflow accountresponsi!ility

    Run formal creditscoring model

    Explain finaldocument

    .ign contracts

    Process 3apping .ervice 7lue Prints

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Process 3apping .ervice 7lue Prints#ow to Redesign a .ervice Process

    3ove work off the stageExample% online check-in at an airport

    Reduce customer actions rely on support processesExample% checking in at a doctorGs office

    Instead of optimiing the capacity of a resource, try to eliminate the step altogetherExample% #ert Jold N 6heck-in offers no valueM go directly to the car

    void fragmentation of work due to specialiation narrow Oo! responsi!ilitiesExample% 5oan processing hospital ward

    If customers are likely to leave the process !ecause of long wait times, have the wait occurlater in the process re-se@uence the activities

    Example% .tar!ucks N Pay early, then wait for the coffee

    #ave the waiting occur outside of a line

    Example% Restaurants in a shopping malls using !uersExample% ppointment

    6ommunicate the wait time with the customer >set expectations?Example% 8isney

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    5oss 3odels

    Response Time

    8ifferent 3odels of 4aria!ility

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    8ifferent 3odels of 4aria!ility

    Waiting pro"lems

    Ftiliation has to !e less than '&&B

    Impact of varia!ility is on :low Time

    1oss pro"lems

    8emand can !e !igger than capacity

    Impact of varia!ility is on :low Rate

    Pure waitingpro!lem, all customersare perfectly patient2

    ll customersenter the process,some leave due totheir impatience

    6ustomers do notenter the process once!uffer has reached acertain limit

    6ustomers are lostonce all servers are!usy

    Same if customers are *atient Same if buffer sie+0

    Same if buffer sie is etremey ar'e

    4aria!ility is always !ad N you pay through lower flow rate andor longer flow time

    7uffer or suffer% if you are willing to tolerate waiting, you donGt have to give up on flow rate

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    nalying 5oss .ystems

    #rauma center moves to

    .iversion status once a

    servers are busy

    incomin' *atients

    are .irecte. to

    ot$er ocations

    Resources

    ) trauma !ays >m+3?

    2eman! Process

    1ne trauma case comesin every ) hours

    >a=) hours?

    ais the interarrival time

    Exponential interarrival times

    Serice Process

    Patient stays in trauma !ayfor an average of ( hours

    >*=( hours?

    *is the service time

    6an have any distri!ution

    What is Pm& the pro"a"ilit# that all m resources are utili3e!4

    m!ulances #elicopters

    . > ?

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    nalying 5oss .ystems% :inding Pm>r?

    8efine r + * - a

    Example% r= ( hours ) hours r=&2/$

    Recall m=)

    Fse Erlang 5oss Ta!le

    :ind that P) >&2/$?=&2&(++

    5ien Pm(r)we can compute

    Time per day that system has to deny access:low units lost = 'a Pm >r?

    ' ( ) * +

    &2'& &2&0&0 &2&&*+ &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2(& &2'//$ &2&'/* &2&&'' &2&&&' &2&&&&

    &2(+ &2(&&& &2&(** &2&&(& &2&&&' &2&&&&

    &2)& &2()&, &2&))+ &2&&)) &2&&&) &2&&&&

    &2)) &2(+&& &2&*&& &2&&** &2&&&* &2&&&&

    &2*& &2(,+$ &2&+*' &2&&$( &2&&&$ &2&&&'

    &2+& &2)))) &2&$/0 &2&'($ &2&&'/ &2&&&(&2/& &2)$+& &2'&'' &2&'0, &2&&)& &2&&&*

    &2/$ &2*&&& &2''$/ &2&(++ &2&&*( &2&&&/

    &2$& &2*'', &2'(/& &2&(,/ &2&&+& &2&&&$

    &2$+ &2*(,/ &2'),+ &2&))+ &2&&/( &2&&&0

    &2,& &2**** &2'+&0 &2&),$ &2&&$$ &2&&'(

    &20& &2*$)$ &2'$+$ &2&+&' &2&''' &2&&(&

    '2&& &2+&&& &2(&&& &2&/(+ &2&'+* &2&&)'

    r = p / a

    m

    Implied utiliation vs pro!a!ility of having all

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Implie! utili3ation

    Pro"a"ilit#

    that all serers

    are utili3e!

    m+1

    m+2

    m+5 m+10

    m+20

    &

    &2'

    &2(

    &2)

    &2*

    &2+

    &2/

    & &2' &2( &2) &2* &2+ &2/ &2$ &2 &20 ' '2'

    m+3

    Implied utiliation vs pro!a!ility of having allserversutilied% Pooling Revisited

    -rlang 1oss Ta"le m' ( ) * + / $ , 0 '&

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    &2'& &2&0&0 &2&&*+ &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2(& &2'//$ &2&'/* &2&&'' &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2(+ &2(&&& &2&(** &2&&(& &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2)& &2()&, &2&))+ &2&&)) &2&&&) &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2)) &2(+&& &2&*&& &2&&** &2&&&* &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2*& &2(,+$ &2&+*' &2&&$( &2&&&$ &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2+& &2)))) &2&$/0 &2&'($ &2&&'/ &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2/& &2)$+& &2'&'' &2&'0, &2&&)& &2&&&* &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2/$ &2*&&& &2''$/ &2&(++ &2&&*( &2&&&/ &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2$& &2*'', &2'(/& &2&(,/ &2&&+& &2&&&$ &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2$+ &2*(,/ &2'),+ &2&))+ &2&&/( &2&&&0 &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &2,& &2**** &2'+&0 &2&),$ &2&&$$ &2&&'( &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    &20& &2*$)$ &2'$+$ &2&+&' &2&''' &2&&(& &2&&&) &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2&& &2+&&& &2(&&& &2&/(+ &2&'+* &2&&)' &2&&&+ &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2'& &2+(), &2(()$ &2&$+, &2&(&* &2&&*+ &2&&&, &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2(& &2+*++ &2(*// &2&,0, &2&(/( &2&&/) &2&&'( &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2(+ &2+++/ &2(+$$ &2&0$& &2&(0* &2&&$) &2&&'+ &2&&&) &2&&&& &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2)& &2+/+( &2(/,$ &2'&*) &2&)(, &2&&,+ &2&&', &2&&&) &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2)) &2+$'* &2($+0 &2'&0( &2&)+' &2&&0) &2&&(' &2&&&* &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2*& &2+,)) &2(,00 &2''0( &2&*&& &2&''' &2&&(/ &2&&&+ &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2+& &2/&&& &2)'&) &2')*) &2&*,& &2&'*( &2&&)+ &2&&&, &2&&&' &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2/& &2/'+* &2)(00 &2'*0/ &2&+/+ &2&'$$ &2&&*$ &2&&'' &2&&&( &2&&&& &2&&&&

    '2/$ &2/(+& &2)*(+ &2'+0, &2&/(* &2&(&* &2&&+/ &2&&') &2&&&) &2&&&' &2&&&&

    '2$& &2/(0/ &2)*,/ &2'/+& &2&/++ &2&(', &2&&/' &2&&'+ &2&&&) &2&&&' &2&&&&

    '2$+ &2/)/* &2)+$$ &2'$(/ &2&$&( &2&(*& &2&&/0 &2&&'$ &2&&&* &2&&&' &2&&&&

    r + *-a '2,& &2/*(0 &2)//+ &2',&) &2&$+& &2&(/) &2&&$, &2&&(& &2&&&+ &2&&&' &2&&&&'20& &2/++( &2),)/ &2'0++ &2&,+& &2&)') &2&&0, &2&&($ &2&&&/ &2&&&' &2&&&&

    (2&& &2///$ &2*&&& &2('&+ &2&0+( &2&)/$ &2&'(' &2&&)* &2&&&0 &2&&&( &2&&&&

    (2'& &2/$$* &2*'+/ &2((+* &2'&+, &2&*(+ &2&'*$ &2&&** &2&&'' &2&&&) &2&&&'

    (2(& &2/,$+ &2*)&/ &2(*&& &2''// &2&*,, &2&'$/ &2&&++ &2&&'+ &2&&&* &2&&&'

    (2(+ &2/0() &2*)$, &2(*$( &2'((' &2&+(' &2&'0( &2&&/' &2&&'$ &2&&&* &2&&&'

    (2)& &2/0$& &2***0 &2(+*) &2'($/ &2&++* &2&(&, &2&&/, &2&&'0 &2&&&+ &2&&&'

    (2)) &2$&&& &2**0+ &2(+0' &2')') &2&+$$ &2&((& &2&&$) &2&&(' &2&&&+ &2&&&'

    (2*& &2$&+0 &2*+,/ &2(/,* &2'),$ &2&/(* &2&(** &2&&,) &2&&(+ &2&&&$ &2&&&(

    (2+& &2$'*) &2*$'$ &2(,(( &2'*00 &2&/0$ &2&(,( &2&'&& &2&&)' &2&&&0 &2&&&(

    (2/& &2$((( &2*,*( &2(0+/ &2'/'( &2&$$) &2&)(* &2&''0 &2&&)0 &2&&'' &2&&&)

    (2/$ &2$($) &2*0() &2)&** &2'/,$ &2&,(+ &2&)+* &2&')) &2&&** &2&&') &2&&&)

    (2$& &2$(0$ &2*0/) &2)&,$ &2'$(+ &2&,+( &2&)/0 &2&'*& &2&&*$ &2&&'* &2&&&*

    (2$+ &2$))) &2+&(' &2)'+( &2'$,' &2&,0( &2&)0) &2&'+( &2&&+( &2&&'/ &2&&&*

    (2,& &2$)/, &2+&$, &2)('+ &2',)$ &2&0)) &2&*'$ &2&'/* &2&&+$ &2&&', &2&&&+

    (20& &2$*)/ &2+',, &2))*& &2'0*0 &2'&'/ &2&*/, &2&'0& &2&&/, &2&&(( &2&&&/

    )2&& &2$+&& &2+(0* &2)*/( &2(&/' &2''&' &2&+(( &2&('0 &2&&,' &2&&($ &2&&&,

    )2'& &2$+/' &2+)0/ &2)+,& &2('$( &2'',$ &2&+$, &2&(*0 &2&&0/ &2&&)) &2&&'&

    )2(& &2$/'0 &2+*0* &2)/0+ &2((,' &2'($* &2&/)/ &2&(,) &2&''( &2&&*& &2&&')

    )2(+ &2$/*$ &2++*' &2)$+' &2())/ &2')', &2&/// &2&)&& &2&'(& &2&&*) &2&&'*

    )2)& &2$/$* &2++,$ &2),&$ &2()0& &2')/( &2&/0$ &2&)', &2&')& &2&&*$ &2&&'/

    )2)) &2$/0( &2+/', &2),*) &2(*(/ &2')0( &2&$', &2&))' &2&')/ &2&&+& &2&&'$

    )2*& &2$$($ &2+/$, &2)0'+ &2(*0$ &2'*+( &2&$/& &2&)+/ &2&'*0 &2&&+/ &2&&'0

    )2+& &2$$$, &2+$/+ &2*&(' &2(/&) &2'+*' &2&,(+ &2&)0/ &2&'$& &2&&// &2&&()

    )2/& &2$,(/ &2+,*, &2*'(* &2($&$ &2'/)' &2&,0' &2&*), &2&'0) &2&&$$ &2&&(,

    )2/$ &2$,+$ &2+0&( &2*'0' &2($$+ &2'/0' &2&0)$ &2&*/, &2&('& &2&&,+ &2&&)'

    )2$& &2$,$( &2+0(0 &2*((* &2(,&0 &2'$(' &2&0/& &2&*,) &2&(', &2&&,0 &2&&))

    )2$+ &2$,0+ &2+0/, &2*($) &2(,/& &2'$// &2&00* &2&+&/ &2&()( &2&&0/ &2&&)/

    )2,& &2$0'$ &2/&&$ &2*)(' &2(0'& &2','' &2'&(0 &2&+(0 &2&(*+ &2&'&( &2&&)0

    )20& &2$0+0 &2/&,( &2**'+ &2)&&0 &2'0&' &2''&& &2&+$$ &2&($* &2&''$ &2&&*/*2&& &2,&&& &2/'+* &2*+&$ &2)'&$ &2'00' &2''$( &2&/($ &2&)&* &2&')) &2&&+)

    Probability{all mservers busy}=

    !...

    !2!11

    !)(21

    m

    rrr

    m

    r

    rPm

    m

    m

    ++++

    =

    Erlang 5oss Ta!le

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Review

    Response Time

    (M#6law com)

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    (M#6law.com)

    3y-law2com is a recent start-up trying to cater to customers in search of legal services online2 Fnlike traditionallaw firms, 3y-law2com allows for extensive interaction !etween lawyers and their customers via telephone andthe Internet2 This process is used in the upfront part of the customer interaction, largely consisting ofanswering some !asic customer @uestions prior to entering a formal relationship2 In order to allow customers tointeract with the firmGs lawyers, customers are encouraged to send e-mails to my-lawyerQ3y-law2com2 :rom

    there, the incoming e-mails are distri!uted to the lawyer who is currently ;on call2< Jiven the !road skills of thelawyers, each lawyer can respond to each incoming re@uest2

    E-mails arrive from 232 to / P232 at a rate of '& e-mails per hour >coefficient of variationfor the arrivals is '?2 t each moment in time, there is exactly one lawyer ;on call,with a standard deviation of '& minutes?2 P: has astaff of + computer technicians2 .ervice times average around *& minutes >with a standard deviation of *&minutes?2

    6'2 If im walks into P:, how long must he wait in line !efore he can see a technician" >1nly include thewaiting time, not any service time?

    6(2 #ow many customers will, on average, !e waiting for their computer to !e fixed"

    Real Compute

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Real6ompute offers real-time computing services2 The company owns * supercomputers that can !e accessedthrough the internet2 Their customers send Oo!s that arrive on average every * minutes >inter-arrival times areexponentially distri!uted and, thus, the standard deviation of the inter-arrival times is * minutes?2

    Each Oo! takes on average '& minutes of one of the supercomputers >during this time, the computer cannotperform any other work?2 6ustomers pay S(& for the execution of each Oo!2 Jiven the time-sensitive nature of

    the calculations, if no supercomputer is availa!le, the Oo! is redirected to a supercomputer of a partner companycalled 1n6omp, which charges S*& per Oo! to Real 6ompute >1n6omp always has supercomputer capacityavaila!le?2

    R6'2 What is the pro!a!ility with which an incoming Oo! can !e executed !y one of the supercomputers owned!y Real6ompute"

    R6(2 #ow much does Real6ompute pay on average to 1n6omp >in Ss per hour?"

    Contractor

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    Prof. Christian Terwiesch

    Contractor

    contractor !uilding houses and doing renovation work has currently six proOects planned for the season2 7eloware the items, and the estimated times to complete them%

    9ew construction at .pringfield - /& days7athroom remodeling at #erne - '& days

    Training time for solar roof installation - ( daysFpdate we!-site - / daysRenovation of deck at #averford - days9ew kitchen at Rosemont - (& days.uppose the contractor starts immediately with the first proOect, no other proOects get added to this list, and thecontractor se@uences them so as to minimie the average time the proOect waits !efore it gets started2 What willthe contractor !e doing in )& days from the start date of the first proOect"

    Call Center

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    6onsider a call center that has a constant staffing level2 7ecause of increased demand in the morning,the call center has a very high utiliation in the morning and a very low utiliation in the afternoon2 Whichof the following will decrease the average waiting time in the call center">a? dd more servers>!? 8ecrease the service time coefficient of variation

    >c? 8ecrease the average service time>d? 5evel the demand !etween the morning hours and the afternoon hours>e? ll of the a!ove