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Modern Lending
LendIt USA March 2017
Today & Tomorrow
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loanDepot, by the Numbers▪ HQ in Foothill Ranch, CA▪ 5,600 employees▪ Launched in 2010; profitable since 2012
$38 billionoriginated in
FY2016
71% originations CAGR
for 2010-2016
$230 millionestimated marketing
spend in FY2017
1,700+ licensed lending
officers
2ndlargest non-bank consumer lender
Cumulative Originated Volume Since Launch ($Bn)
▪ Completed 3 acquisitions to date ▪ Privately held ▪ First post-crisis platform to offer mortgage, home equity
and personal loans products
Total U.S. Consumer Debt Outstanding ($T)
Post-Crisis Consumer Credit Demand Cycle
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
$10.0
$10.8
$11.5
$12.3
$13.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$11.3$11.5
$11.7
$12.2
$12.7
$12.4
Total U.S. Consumer Debt Outstanding ($T)
Post-Crisis Consumer Credit Demand Cycle
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
$10.0
$10.8
$11.5
$12.3
$13.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$12.6
$12.1
$11.8
$11.5$11.3
$11.5$11.7
$12.2
$12.7
$12.4
$10.0
$10.8
$11.5
$12.3
$13.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$12.6
$12.1
$11.8
$11.5$11.3
$11.5$11.7
$12.2
$12.7
$12.4
Total U.S. Consumer Debt Outstanding ($T)
Post-Crisis Consumer Credit Demand Cycle
launches Jan 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
$10.0
$10.8
$11.5
$12.3
$13.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$12.6
$12.1
$11.8
$11.5$11.3
$11.5$11.7
$12.2
$12.7
$12.4
Total U.S. Consumer Debt Outstanding ($T)
Post-Crisis Consumer Credit Demand Cycle
launches Jan 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
79%
71%
Mortgage Debt as a % of total U.S. Consumer Debt
$10.0
$100.0
2006 2015
$12.4$13.0
Consumer Credit Demand, Another Angle
Source: Cash-out Refinance data from Black Knight Financial Mortgage Monitor Report, Oct. 2016. Home Equity data from inside Mortgage Finance. Household Equity value data from Federal Reserve Bank of NY.
Despite a recovery in household equity values to near pre-crisis levels, equity extraction has not returned
U.S. Household Equity Balances ($T)
$10.0
$100.0
2006 2015
$12.4$13.0
Consumer Credit Demand, Another Angle
Source: Cash-out Refinance data from Black Knight Financial Mortgage Monitor Report, Oct. 2016. Home Equity data from inside Mortgage Finance. Household Equity value data from Federal Reserve Bank of NY.
2006 2015
$64
$315
$183
$430
Home Equity LoansCash-Out Refinance$745
$247
~$500 billionVariance
U.S. Household Equity Balances ($T) U.S. Household Equity Extraction ($Bn)
Despite a recovery in household equity values to near pre-crisis levels, equity extraction has not returned
What factors brought us here?
Post-Crisis Credit Supply Drivers
Regulation
Post-Crisis Credit Supply Drivers
Regulation Capital Markets
Post-Crisis Credit Supply Drivers
Regulation Capital Markets Technology
Regulation Has Driven Banks Out of Lending
Non-bank platforms highlighted
Top 10 Retail Home Loan Lenders: 2013 vs. TodayRegulation
FY 2013
# Lender $ Orig Market Share
1. Wells Fargo $199.7 10.8%
2. Chase, NJ $90.7 4.9%
3. Bank Of America Home Loans, NC $89.8 4.9%
4. Quicken Loans Inc., MI $71.0 3.8%
5. Citi, MO $53.7 2.9%
6. U.S. Bank Home Mortgage, MN $20.7 1.1%
7. SunTrust Mortgage Inc., VA $16.4 0.9%
8. Guaranteed Rate Inc., IL $15.9 0.9%
9. PNC Mortgage, OH $15.1 0.8%
10. Fifth Third Bank, OH $12.0 0.6%
Total Top 10 # $584.9 31.7%
Non Banks within Top 10 2 $86.9 4.7%
Total Market Originations $1,844.9 100.0%
($'s in billions)
FY 2016
# Lender $ Orig Market Share
1. Wells Fargo $130.1 6.9%
2. Quicken Loans Inc., MI $95.7 5.1%
3. Bank of America Home Loans, NC $64.2 3.4%
4. Chase, NJ $58.1 3.1%
5. loanDepot.com, CA $32.4 1.7%
6. Freedom Mortgage Corp., NJ $24.7 1.3%
7. Citi, MO $23.2 1.2%
8. Guaranteed Rate Inc., IL $22.7 1.2%
9. U.S. Bank Home Mortgage, MN $18.6 1.0%
10. Fairway Independent Mortgage $16.3 0.9%
Total Top 10 # $486.0 25.7%
Non Banks within Top 10 5 $191.7 10.1%
Total Market Originations $1,891.0 100.0%
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, market sizes from Mortgage Bankers Association. PHH Mortgage excluded from Retail ranking due to B2B / outsourcing model. Quicken retail volume assumes 90% total volume in 2013.
Private Capital Hasn’t Re-entered the Housing System
US Residential MBS Issuance ($T)
Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Capital Markets
$0.0
$0.8
$1.5
$2.3
$3.0
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
$1.7$1.4
$1.1
$1.7$1.8
$1.3
$1.5$1.8
$1.2
$2.0$2.2$2.2$1.9$2.8$1.9
$1.4
$0.6
$0.9$1.0
$0.5$0.5
US Residential MBS Issuance ($T)
Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
$0.0
$0.8
$1.5
$2.3
$3.0
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Agency (GSE’s & GNMA)
Non-Agency
Capital Markets
Private Capital Hasn’t Re-entered the Housing System
$0.0
$0.8
$1.5
$2.3
$3.0
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
US Residential MBS Issuance ($T)
96 - ‘07 08 - ‘16
Average Annual Issuance ($T) $1.5 $1.5
Agency Share 64% 96%
Non- Agency Share 36% 4%
Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Agency (GSE’s & GNMA)
Non-Agency
Capital Markets
Private Capital Hasn’t Re-entered the Housing System
Innovation Has Focused on Consumer Asset Classes
“Alternative Lending” Market Map – March 2017 Technology
Source: Financial Technology Partners.
Innovation Has Focused on Consumer Asset Classes
“Alternative Lending” Market Map – March 2017
Targeting 29% of total addressable consumer market
Targeting 71% of total addressable consumer market
Technology
Source: Financial Technology Partners.
Innovation Has Focused on Consumer Asset Classes
“Alternative Lending” Market Map – March 2017
Targeting 29% of total addressable consumer market
Targeting 71% of total addressable consumer market
Technology
Compartmentalization will lead to consolidationSource: Financial Technology Partners.
Looking Ahead – Will It Matter?
$12.6 Trillion Consumer Debt Outstanding
When - not if - innovation and private capital return to the housing market, lenders who can pivot between both will enjoy marketing & scale efficiencies
not available to mono-line lenders
Other
Student
Credit Card
Auto
29%
71%Mortgage & Home Equity
Average Borrower Profile By Product
Home Loans Personal Loans
Loan Amount $274,000 $16,833
Coupon % 3.88% 14.76%
Borrower Age 49 51
Borrower FICO 724 720
Borrower Income $82,500 $82,300
Homeownership % 100% 95%
Home LTV 77% n/a
LD Personal Loans: Early Lessons
Average Borrower Profile By Product
Technology
Regulation
Capital Markets
New administration expected to soften regulation, but extent and timing unknown
Regardless, compliance will continue to need to be a core competency for companies
Non-banks must follow the money-supply
Category leaders will have competitive advantage in accessing capital
Home loan market will be disrupted
Technology will become greater barrier to entry over time
Regulation
Capital M
arketsTechnology
Where Do We Go From Here?What we do know…
What We Don’t Know…
What We Don’t Know…
What We Don’t Know…
How to Plan for an Unknown Future
Thank You