models to predict the effects of coastal restoration in ......andy nyman: [email protected] • the...

Models to Predict the Effects of Coastal Restoration in Louisiana on Fish and Wildlife J.A. Nyman1, D.M. Baltz2, M.D. Kaller1, P.L. Leberg4, C. Parsons Richards3, R.P. Romaire1, and T.M. Soniat5 1. Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 2. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 3. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 4. University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA 5. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA Andy Nyman: [email protected]

• The total value of all fisheries and wildlife enterprises to the Louisiana economy during 2012 was $1.101 billion

Louisiana’s Master Plan

• 36 individual projects – marsh creation via the river – marsh creation via construction equipment – shoreline protection – restore natural hydrologic connections; restrict artificial

hydrologic connections – oyster reefs – etc.

1. American alligator 2. muskrat 3. river otter 4. speckled trout 5. brown shrimp 6. white shrimp 7. largemouth bass 8. gadwall 9. green-winged teal 10. mottled duck 11. neotropical migrants 12. roseate spoonbill 13. wild-caught crawfish 14. eastern oyster

Andy Nyman, LSU AgCenter

Don Baltz, LSU

Mike Kaller, LSU AgCenter

Paul Leberg, University of Louisiana at Lafayette

Robert Romaire, LSU AgCenter Tom Soniat, UNO

Models created as part of planning process for 2013 Master Plan

5

input for fish and wildlife models: 1) 50 years of monthly output from high resolution hydrodynamic

models 2) 50 years of monthly output from models of effects of water depth and

salinity on plant species abundance and on plant health

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output for fish and wildlife models: 50 years of monthly estimates of habitat quality (0-1) for each 500-m x 500- m cell in a grid spanning coastal Louisiana (N ~ 67,000).

2012 model of habitat quality for American alligator

V1: habitat type V2: percent land V3: average water depth V4: interspersion V5: water salinity

alligator: percent land

alligator: water salinity

HSI for alligator is computed as the geometric mean of the 5 factors:

HSI = (SI1 x SI2 x SI3 x SI4 x SI5)1/5

HSI for alligator is computed as the geometric mean of the 5 factors:

HSI = (SI1 x SI2 x SI3 x SI4 x SI5)1/5 V1 V2 V2 V4 V5 5THROOT

1 1 1 1 1 1.00 0 1 1 1 1 0.00

0.2 1 1 1 1 0.72 0.4 1 1 1 1 0.83 0.6 1 1 1 1 0.90 0.8 1 1 1 1 0.96 1 1 1 1 1 1.00

0.2 0.2 1 1 1 0.53 0.4 0.4 1 1 1 0.69 0.6 0.6 1 1 1 0.82 0.8 0.8 1 1 1 0.91 1 1 1 1 1 1.00

species likely to increase with or without the Master Plan

species without Master Plan with Master Plan American oyster 116% 107% Largemouth bass 102% 114%

species likely to increase without the Master Plan but decline with the Master Plan

species without Master Plan with Master Plan brown shrimp 119% 96% spotted seatrout 115% 94% white shrimp 106% 98%

species likely to decline without the Master Plan but increase with the Master Plan

species without Master Plan with Master Plan gadwall 68% 99% crawfish 74% 115%

species likely to decline without the Master Plan but decline less with the Master Plan

species without Master Plan with Master Plan mottled duck 67% 88% neotropical birds 66% 84% green-winged teal 49% 61% roseate spoonbill 54% 66% American alligator 13% 24% muskrats 15% 19%

• During the next 50 years, Louisiana is expected to lose 15% to 32% of its emergent marshes and to gain extensive areas of shallow, saline water.

• During the next 50 years, Louisiana is expected to lose 15% to 32% of its emergent marshes and to gain extensive areas of shallow, saline water.

swamp, fresh marsh, intermediate marsh, brackish marsh, saline marsh

conclusions for all

(simple but realistic models of relationships between animal abundance and habitat characteristics)

+ (high resolution hydrodynamic models) = another basis for choosing which restoration

idea to implement

conclusions for Louisiana

• In 50 years without restoration – Habitat quality was predicted to decline for neotropical

songbirds and seven other species (-37% averaged over all species).

– Habitat quality was predicted to increase for five species (+18% averaged over all species).

• The Master Plan was predicted to slow or negate all changes associated with the status quo.

Caveat regarding these models and the 36 projects in Louisiana’s Master Plan

• Our oyster model was not used when designing the oyster reef projects in the Master Plan

Nyman et al. 2013. Likely changes in habitat quality for fish and wildlife in coastal Louisiana during the next 50 years. Journal of Coastal Research Special Issue 67:67-74.

Soniat et al. 2013. Predicting the effects of proposed Mississippi River diversions on oyster habitat quality: application of an oyster habitat suitability model. Journal of Shellfish Research 32:629-348.

CPRA. 2013. Master Plan Consistency Guidelines. Consistency with the 2012 Coastal Master Plan: guidelines for restoration projects receiving state funding. http://coastal.la.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/MPConsistencyGuidelines112013.pdf

Models to Predict the Effects of Coastal Restoration in Louisiana on Fish and Wildlife J.A. Nyman1, D.M. Baltz2, M.D. Kaller1, P.L. Leberg4, C. Parsons Richards3, R.P. Romaire1, and T.M. Soniat5 1. Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 2. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 3. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 4. University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA 5. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA Andy Nyman: [email protected]

Models to Predict the Effects of Coastal Restoration in Louisiana on Fish and Wildlife��J.A. Nyman1, D.M. Baltz2, M.D. Kaller1, P.L. Leberg4, C. Parsons Richards3, R.P. Romaire1, and T.M. Soniat5��1. Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�2. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�3. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�4. University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA�5. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA��Andy Nyman: [email protected] Number 2Louisiana’s Master PlanSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 72012 model of habitat quality for American alligatoralligator: percent landalligator: water salinitySlide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14species likely to increase �with or without the Master Planspecies likely to increase without the Master Plan but decline with the Master Planspecies likely to decline without the Master Plan but increase with the Master Planspecies likely to decline without the Master Plan but decline less with the Master PlanSlide Number 19Slide Number 20conclusions for allconclusions for LouisianaCaveat regarding these models and the 36 projects in Louisiana’s Master PlanSlide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Models to Predict the Effects of Coastal Restoration in Louisiana on Fish and Wildlife��J.A. Nyman1, D.M. Baltz2, M.D. Kaller1, P.L. Leberg4, C. Parsons Richards3, R.P. Romaire1, and T.M. Soniat5��1. Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�2. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�3. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA, USA�4. University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA�5. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA��Andy Nyman: [email protected]

models to predict the effects of coastal restoration in ......andy nyman: [email protected] • the...

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