modeling for environmental decisions patrick barickman 3/21/2006
TRANSCRIPT
Modeling For Environmental Decisions
Patrick Barickman 3/21/2006
WHAT WE’LL COVER
•Models and policy
•The laws
•The pollutants
•Atmospheric chemistry
•A case study – a high wind event, aka a dust storm
Models, Facts, and the Policy ProcessJohn Leslie King and Kenneth L. Kraemer
Three Important Functions
1. Clarifier of the issuesKnow the model’s constraints and limitations
2. Enforces a disciplined analysisModeling protocol - Consistent results come from
consistent application
3. Form of advice – not necessarily the answerOften, the best advice may be what not to do
The Clean Air Act Circa 1970
Clean Water Act, NEPA, Endangered Species Act
Clean Air Act amended 1990Some technical changes, some major changes (regional haze rule – visibility in natl. parks)
Federal rules and health standardsEnforced by states ( in some cases local agencies)
Class I, II, and III areasClass I = pristine – wilderness, NPClass III = urban areas
Two classes of pollutants1. Criteria2. Hazardous
Criteria Pollutants•Carbon monoxide•Nitrous oxides•Sulfur oxides•Volatile organics compounds•Fine particulates
Health standards change over time asImproved science provides better understandingAbility to monitor pollutants improves
Particulate example1970’s – Total Suspended Particulates1980’s, 90’s – PM10
Current – PM2.5
OZONE:A BASIC
CHEMISTRY
NONO22
++SUNLIGHTSUNLIGHT
++OO22
NONOXX
EMISSIONSEMISSIONSVOCVOC
EMISSIONSEMISSIONS
NONO VOCVOC
OZONOZONEESSCCAVENGINGAVENGING FORMATIONFORMATION
From:PROF. V. J. CORTESMONICA LUPION I.I.
Sept. 10, 2005 - 00:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 02:00 Hrs
Sept. 10, 2005 - 07:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 12:00 Hrs
NEAP Technical Analysis
Model Development
Combines 3 Models HYSPLIT wind trajectories WRAP wind blown dust model ISCST3 dispersion and deposition
Multiple data sets Soils Land Cover UDAQ annual inventory Construction activity ( building permits )
All sewn together and processed with GIS Final output for each episode/monitor are sets of spreadsheets to easily track calculations for all dust categories
Model #1Using the HYSPLIT model toDefine the analysis area
4 km grid cells: too small
12 km grid cells: still too small
36 km grid cells: Better. Selecting cells by hand creates an area of influence based on the trajectory vectors
Model development: False starts along the way
Landuse types within the study area
Model #2Adapting the WRAP wind-blown dust model
Model #3ISCST3 plume dispersion
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Near-field AnalysisAccounting for dust emissions within the urban areas
•Sources in our ‘emissions inventory’•Vacant lots – a special case
GIS analyses often make use of spatial proportions
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Accounting for sources not accounted for in the dust model•Point•Area•Mobile•Vacant lots
Inventory = tons/year Model calculating grams/second
Results – Lindon 4/15/2002
Results – Magna 2/25/2002
Conclusions:
• A technical analyst serves many masters• It’s always helpful to know who they are
• At most, your expertise will be limited to a few models• Try for a working understanding in a variety of techniques
• Look at the job descriptions for senior planners and you will see a lot of space devoted to analytical skills