Decisions!! Decisions!!

How many bad decisions have you made lately?

Maxine Clark founder of Build a Bear

• Attributes her success to: Mrs. Grace, her elementary teacher who gave out a red pencil prize to the student who made the most mistake each week. She didn’t want the fear of being wrong to keep us from trying. No prize for making the same mistake twice though.

Decision making errors1. Overconfidence Bias1996 expedition to the top of Everest were overconfident, did not follow the rule of reaching the top by 2:00 PM or you turn around. The 5 who reached the top at 4:00 died. Leaders said it worked 39 times before.

Decision making errors2. Sunk Cost Bias1996 expedition to the top of Everest (29,000 feet) had invested 6 weeks of preparation to acclimatize and 2 weeks climbing. The cost was $65,000 each. Because of this, they had become overly committed – violating the “Turn around” rule.

Decision making errors

3. Cognitive BiasWhen you place too much emphasis on recent event. The leaders of the expedition to the top of Everest had experienced several seasons of good weather. A raging blizzard came in that day as they were climbing down in the dark.

Can you undo a decision?

• You have gone to a bad movie• You chose to stay up late• You cheated on a test• You told someone something that was told to

you in confidence• You paid too much for a pair of jeans• You saved your entire paycheck with no

money leftover for gas

Do I follow my heart or my head?

Do I follow my intuition?

Nurses and Doctors have a sense that something isn’t right, but no vital sign abnormalities – cardiac arrest happens.

A fireman sees a simple kitchen fire, but has a sense that his men should leave – the floor collapses.

Intuition is about pattern recognition and pattern matching based on out past experience

Is there a right and wrong answer to most decisions?

RIGHT?? WRONG??

OPPORTUNITY COSTS

• Do the rewards outweigh the benefits?

OPPORTUNITY COSTS• Is a choice free, or does it have a cost?

• Each choice has alternatives.

• The choice is what your willing to give up.

• Are you as well off as your next best alternative?

Is the longest list best?

• College to go to

• Who to marry

Have I let my imagination go wild?

Brainstorming ground rules

• Encourage wild ideas• Encourage building on other ideas• Defer judgment

• IDEO’s brainstorming methods – creating a shopping cart

Should I let others help me?

Audience was correct 91% of the time

Group Think

Pressure for conformity to any members who express a dissenting view.Certain individuals filter out information the might challenge the wisdom within the group.

Are there unintended consequences to others?

Choice Consequences?

10 – 10 – 10 RULE

• Consider the consequences of your decision in–10 minutes–10 months–10 years

10 – 10 – 10 RULE

• Start with a question• Collect information

–Ask friends & family for guidance• Consider your inner most values

–Will this decision help me create a live of my own making?

Should you always choose the option of what you do best?

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Decision Making Process