mobility ecosystem business...
TRANSCRIPT
Intel confidential — Do Not Forward
Mobility Ecosystem business models and ecosystem in change
Oliver Buschmann
October 22, 2013
Intel confidential
Key ecosystem & business model changes Android
rising
China low-cost
Verticali-zation &UX race
‘Subsidizers’emerging
Device composition
Intel confidential
History of Smartphone ecosystem disruption
3
Disruption Wave 1
Integration
Symbian
Palm Blackberry
Windows
iOS
Android
Disruption Wave 2
Low Cost Modular
Disruption Wave 3?
Intel confidential
Ecosytems verticalize with different Business Monetization
4
SW & Services
OS
Device
Si & Mfg
Devices$145 B
Si Revenue$14 B Revenue
Transaction Revenue
Apps :$ND Revenue
Observed/Company reportedLegend: Supposition Core monetization area
Advertizing~$44B
Apps :~$1B
Apps & Content:
$12B
Applicat.:$27 B
Adv / Search:
$3 B
Hardware
OS$30 B
Consoles, Tablets$13 B
Devices$104B
SP, Tb, Wb:$5B
Media, eCom.~$20 B
Ads, Web Svc:$3 B
Data & Transaction Revenue
Intel confidential
The race for best User Experience
Capability Intel Apple Google Microsoft Samsung Qualcomm
Person
al
Assis
tan
t
Personal Assistant
Nuance GenieIntel PA
SiriNotifications
Google NowWallet
N/A – Bing S-Voice Platform focus
Speech / NLUNuance
HW accel, LPALSiri / Nuance Google Voice
BingTell Me
S-Voice / NuanceHW accel
LPAL
Location Intel LBS, Chipset Maps Maps Maps CSR / Android iZat
Context CSP, Sensor Hub Siri Google Now Context Health sensors Gimbal
Data
Ban
k
Identity FedID, IPT AppleID Google+ ID Microsoft IDSamsung ID,
KNOXSecureMSM
Personal Data DataBankiTunes, iCloud
Passbook
Dashboard, DrivePlay
SkyDrive, BingXbox Gold
AllShare, Content Gimbal
Advertising / Personalization
PersonalizedServices
iAdiTunes
AdSense/Words
PlayBing Ads Gimbal
No P
assw
ord
s Identity FedID, IPT AppleIDGoogle/Google
+ IDMicrosoft ID
Samsung ID, KNOX BYOD
SecureMSM
Password VaultSafeKey
YAPAppleID
iCloud KeychainChromeOpenID
BingWindows Vault
None SecureMSM
Biometrics YAPFP + OTP &
facial expectedAndroid Facial
Picture, SmartCardOTP, AD
FacialSecureMSM,
OTP, NFC
No W
ires
Multi-screenWiDiCCF
AirPlayAirDrop
Miracast, Dial, Chromecast
SmartglassMiracast
AllShareAllJoyn, Skifta
Miracast
Wireless Charging
A4WPExpected
ProprietaryPMA None A4WP, Qi, PMA A4WP
Wireless Docking
Wireless DockWiGig
ThunderboldPC: (Wilocity)Mobile: ~’15
Leadership capable todaySolution in market, not currently leadershipNo solution in market or limited traction/capability2013 UX Ecosystem Landscape
Intel confidential
NDK app share doubled since 2011
KEY DRIVERSNDK APPS ARE GAINING SHARE
100%
0%
Top 100 apps
2014E
100
2013
100
2011
100 • Increasing need for performance e.g. gaming
•Keep up with (vertically optimized) iOS
•Availability of 3rd
party libraries and engines to use with NDK
Source: AppAnnie; LitSearch
NDK
Non NDK
Intel confidential
Multiple ecosystem ingredients required –Example location based services for indoor
Exemplary
11/8/2013
Data
Service/ Application/ SDK/ API
Location stack Ecosystem players
OS platform OSV
SW algorithms for location Si vendors, OSV, others
Si components Si vendors
Maps & PoI Ecosystem players
Map & Point of Interest data OSVs, others
Devices Ecosystem players
•Integration of all HW &SW
•Cal. of device location
Device OEMs
Services, Apps, SDK, API Ecosystem players
• Provision of apps, services
• Creation of context
OSVs, App developers
Calc. of device
location
Context generation & service provision
EnterpriseConsumer
Indoor location value chain:1
5
2
Infrastructure Ecosystem players
Infrastructure element
(e.g. WiFi AP, Cellular BTS)
Infrastructure vendors,
others
Infrastructure location data OSVs, infra, others
3
Location
data
Infrastructure
element
Infrastructure:
Location stack
6
532
1
Wireless Network
Ingredient Value contribution Value flow
SW algorithm
Si component
OS platform
= cloud database
Wireless network Ecosystem players
Mobile network connection Operators
4
6
4
Device
Client
Cloud
Map & PoI
Intel confidential
China Tech Ecosystem Explosion
CTE ENABLER & INHIBITORS
• ~30% lower prices
• Local supply chain
• Domestic test bed & int’l distribution channel esp. Emerging markets
• Local engineering pool
• Turnkey solutions enable short TTM
• Not prioritized for WindowsRT
• Limited sophisticated R&D and innovation power
• Limited IP assets (except Huawei, ZTE)
• No ARM license fee for leading edge
ACCELERATED RAMP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Share of ww consumption (%)
Smartphone
Feature Phone
Tablet ww TAM
Tablet Android
TAM
Intel confidential
Content service providers Emerging
9
Content Service Providers
with >50% share of tables <250$
Source: eMarketeer, IDC, Intel IMR
Intel confidential
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Avg. % purchased through Amazon
Incremental value via Kindle Fire vs. OTT app
INTEL CONFIDENTIAL10
•~2-5x transactional service revenue share
•~3X ‘Prime’ subscription adoption rate
•>$151 more revenue per device within first year
Source: Intel Survey results based on 500 screened respondents
Key economic driver: Own Devices Can Generate 2-5x Incremental Revenue
Amazon service rev. from Kindle Fire
Amazon service rev. from OTT app
Intel confidential
From single devices to device ensembles ecosystem
11
PebbleWatch
BTLE
Recon Jet
Glasses
ICEdotCrash
Detector
WahooHR
Monitor
NikeFuelband
Intel confidential
“Enable mobile ecosystemon Intel Platforms …
Vision
…and provide better experiences”
KNOW ME
FREE ME
LINK ME
EXPRESS ME
IA
ContentISVsChannelsODMs/IDHsOSVsOEMsHW IP
Intel confidential — Do Not Forward
Intel confidential
Abstract
14
The mobile ecosystem has gone through substantial disruptions in the past few years and continues to evolve rapidly.
Starting from Symbian, going to iOS and the fast ramp of Android has created 3 large ecosystems around Google/Android, Microsoft/Windows and Apple/iOS. Triggered by the vast success of the vertical model of combined HW and SW, most players try to verticalize, e.g. Microsoft offering surface or Google buying Motorola and offering Nexus or Google Glass.
Especially with the rise of low-end tablets, we are part of the next disruption, triggered by China Tech players, which create a new ecosystem around low-end products and eventually disrupt also higher tier market segments.
Looking into the future, we will see growth in a new class of business models, where phone, tablet and wearable hardware is no longer seen as a source of profits, but is treated as a distribution channel for digital products and services. Amazon has started a new class of service business model, which is likely to create the 4th large ecosystem.
In this talk, I will walk through those key ecosystem changes and new emerging business models and their implications for the industry and Intel.
Key trends: China CTE, Content subsidies, Android, Verticalization, much morecomplex interaction (function integration); Across OSs (Dual-OS, HTML5, Productivity on Android, …); system/ecosystem thinking (e.g. virtual shopping)
Add Sources: IMR research, Andy, David Crawford,