digital business trends disruptions

15.09.08 -

Département des constructions et des technologies de l'informationCentre des technologies de l'information

Giorgio Pauletto

Observatoire technologiqueIncubator of change and innovation engine

Centre des technologies de l'informationDCTI, Etat de Genève

15.09.08 -


ForesightPartnerships

BusinessInformationTechnology

E-Society Vison

OT

Observatoire technologique

http://ot.ge.ch/ot

http://ot.ge.ch/ot

15.09.08 -


Activities

• Strategic Foresight• How do society and technology influence each other?• Provide advice to the State of Geneva and CIO on

strategies and technologies• Lead an active work group on

Information Systems Governance• Open conference « Journée de rencontre »

(Nov 21 on Opening Public Data)

Globalization

Governance InnovationBusiness models

Web 2.0

Environment

Aesthetics

Traceability

Security

Open Source

Transparency

Personalization

Long tail

Services

Sustainability

Virtualization

Singularity

● What are the main trends that will have an impact on ICT in 2 to 5 years?

● How can we take them into account in our strategies and policies?

● How can we translate them into operational actions?

?

Cycles

Time

TechnologyEconomySociety

Digital Business Macro Trends

Globalized Microbusiness

n

Mobiles

SocialSoftware

n

n

Web Users

www

n

Gb

Broadband

IT AcceleratorsGlobal online

consumersConnected

microfinanceCollaborative

and remote working

Production Cost

Innovation

Deepening Mass

Consumption

Western Consumer Saturation

Emerging Market

Development

Process Mgmt

%

$Sensors

i

Metadata

q

p

Processors

p

Graphics

Flattening World,Reduces "Easy"

Margin Opportunities

ManagementScience

Seeks NewOptimization

Methods

Business AppliesTechnologyAdvances

GlobalCompetition

Increases Scale,Standardization

IT AcceleratorsSimulation Dynamic

businessmethods

Mathematicalmanagementscience(derivatives)

Services science

New Management Science

Issue 16.08 June 2008

Technological Environmentalism

Process Mgmt

%

$Sensors

n

WirelessNetworks

i

Metadata

q

Web users

nwww

Requiring NewPolicies and

Controls

Exploiting New andCheaper

Technologies

TechnologicalSociety

PollutesEarth and

Atmosphere

IT AcceleratorsCarbon credits

and e-trading Localized

micro-generationPollution

sensorsLife cycle

traceability

Global IT strategy for CO2 reductions, June 2008, WWF

Collective Intelligence

MassParticipation

Creates Unintended

Consequences

EmpowermentDisrupts: NewBreakthroughs

Arise

New TechnologyCreates New

Potential

But "NetworkEffects" Are Needed to Realize It

SocialSoftware

n

i

Metadata

q

Web Users

nwww

SOA

%

:

$

UtilityInfrastructure IT Accelerators

TaggingWeb 2.0"Open"

developmentPrediction

marketsWikisSocial

networking BlogsHigh

performanceworkplace

Design Innovation

Technology Attracts MoreCreative Users

New Levelsof AestheticAchievement

"Aesthetic Need"MarketGrows

Design Applied to

Technology

IT AcceleratorsCommoditizationNew "materials"Power design

toolsDesign discourseEmergence of

service and experience design

n

Mobiles

SocialSoftware

n

q

Displaytechnology

p

Graphics

Memory

$

Proactive Transparency

Consumers,Investors,

EmployeesDemand

Access toCompete

IT IndustryCreates

Better Tools;Regulators

RequireMore Disclosure

"IT PenetratesDeeper IntoEveryday

Business andPersonal Life"

Power EliteStore, Shareand Network

Information inNew Ways

IT AcceleratorsConsumerizationDigital native

generationFree agent

workforceAttention

economyGlobalized

capital

n

Mobiles

SocialSoftware

n

$Storage

Channels

n

Memory

$

Digital Business Macro Trends

• Globalized Microbusiness

• New Management Science

• Technological Environmentalism

• Collective Intelligence

• Design Innovation

• Proactive Transparency

The future is already here;it's just not very evenly distributed.

William Gibson“ ”

5 Disruptive IT Trends in 2008

Software as a Software as a ServiceService

CloudCloudComputingComputingOpen SourceOpen Source

Web 2.0Web 2.0 Consum-Consum-erizationerization





Software using an open source license, built on open standards, and supported by

an active community. Cheap and easy to

implement, it allows for a quick uptake at a high

professional level.

Ex: Linux, OpenOffice.org, Firefox, Apache, ...





Hosted application that offers services either directly on the web or

through APIs (often via Webservices or REST

architectures). Eliminates the need to install and run the app locally simplifying

software maintenance, operation, and support.

Ex: Gmail, Hotmail, Google Docs, OpenId,

Salesforce, ...


World scale size hardware and software architectures

to host services on the web. This allows services to become more scalable,

flexible, and quickly deployed.

Ex: Amazon Elastic Computing Cloud EC2 et

Simple Storage Service S3,Google App Engine, ...








Users are increasingly digital natives that bring their own technology and habits into

organizations. Resistance is futile: it's usually better to adapt than to ignore them.

Ex: Web (port 80), Chat, USB keys, external email

Skype, iPhone, ...





The web is a new programmable platform,

putting data and users at its core, enabling network

effects, mashing-up services, in a perpetual beta version, and relying on lightweight

business models.

Ex: LinkedIn, MySpace, Flickr, YouTube,

Wikipedia, ...


One more thing...

LoLow w costcostLow energyLow energy

Cheap(er) devices are appearing that will take over

the usual PC / laptop paradigm. Wireless

communication is changing the way people work, live,

love, and relate to each other through online applications.

Ex: OLPC, Eee-PC, Advanced cell phones, ...




Disruptive IT Trends in 2008

LoLow w costcostLow energyLow energy+

Sources● Examples and reports taken from the web, conferences, and personal

communications● Gartner Group● Wired● Wikipedia

digital business trends disruptions

Education

linformation centre

open sourcebecome

open standards

main trends

open source license

cloud open sourcecheap

linformation dcti

n market growssocial