mobile channels 2011 & beyond what is hot and what is not?

February 8-10th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

Mobile Channels 2011 & BeyondWhat is hot and what is not?

Charles Macleod (Metaflow)Brett Seyler (Unity)

Oliver Breitfeld (Arvato)Matt Wood (Amazon)

February 8-11th, 2011 Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

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• QualityIndex.com (metacritic for mobile)

• Smartphone Alliance ad netwok

• PLUS PG.Biz Mobile Games Trends Reports & Consultancy

• >> More to come in 2011

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Your distinguished panel…

• Charles Macleod, CEO, Metaflow• Brett Seyler, VP Strategy, Unity

• Oliver Breitfeld, Head of Games, Arvato Mobile• Matt Wood, Technology Evangelist, Amazon Web

Services• The Moderator:

Chris James, Managing Director, Pocket Gamer

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Platforms: iOS - Hot or Not?

+ The most lucrative app store• 10 billion apps downloaded

• c.$2 billion to developers

+ Large, focused, active audience• c.160 million iOS devices

• Average downloads over 10 per person

+ A constantly evolving platform• iOS 4 with 1500 new APIs

• iAds + GameCenter

- The most competitive app store?• C.400,000 apps, c.70K games

• Price points driven down (to free?)

- Other factors• Apple as inconsistent gatekeeper (e.g. Ip ruling)

• Fragmentation & piracy

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Platforms: Android - Hot or Not?

+ Fasting growing platform• Activating c.300,000 devices per day (Google)

• Biggest smartphone iOS in world in Q4 (Canalsys)

+ Growing support from rest of market

• Xperia Play + Playstation Suite

• Amazon Android store, Exent, etc

• Operator portals

+ Improving Platform

• File size up to 50Mb, in-app payments coming

• Store updated recently and returns policy trimmed

- Still concerns about app store

• Still a ‘Half built shopping mall’?

• Dominated by free content and dubious IP

• Piracy is rife

- Fragmented platform

• Different OS’s+ manufacturers = multiple specs

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Platforms: Windows Phone 7 - Hot or Not?

+ Managed retail platform• App store promotions and premium price points

+ Strong gaming credentials• Xbox Live integration brings existing community

• Focus on quality titles and some exclusives

• Top 10 paid apps were all games post launch

+ Backed with big budget by Microsoft• Massive promotional campaign

• Paying developers to por titles

+ Single-spec ‘chassis’• No fragmentation across manufacturers (yet!)

- Size of market?• 1.5 million shipped into retail in first 6 weeks

and c.2.25M overall (but how many sold?)

• Will Nokia come aboard?

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Platforms: Symbian - Hot or Not?

+ High market penetration• Still the largest OS platform globally (40%)

• Massive penetration in emerging markets

+ Ovi store growing

• c.4m daily downloads (75% apps)

• More than 100 developers passing 1M downloads (inc Dchoc 4M, Lunaforte 10M and Herocraft 12M)

+ Better capacitive touchscreen devices

• N8 and C9 both strong (after frustrating N97)

- Smartphone market share diminishing

• Especially fast in western markets in face of smartphone competition and never strong in US

- Fragmented specs and unsure future

• A lot of lower-end devices, small Symbian^3

• Symbian foundation dissolved, Meego?

- Some concerns over market

- Symbian foundation dissolved, Meego?

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Platforms: Blackberry - Hot or Not?

+ Growing market• Shipped 14.2M smartphones in Q4 (Up 40%yoy)

+ Youthful audience• Very popular with teenagers for communication

+ Comparatively high price points• Higher minimum rate and more premium

- Do audience care about games?• Is it more about facebook and BM?

- Do Blackberry care about games?• Few of the showcased ‘super-apps are games

• Underpowered platform - still essentially Java

- New OS not yet in place• New OS announced but not here

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Platforms: WebOS - Hot or Not?

+ Technically great OS• Acclaimed IO and native power for

gaming in Pre and Pixi

+ New handsets coming?• Announcements at MWC next week

- Small install base- C.2M (diff to be sure)

- What’s happening under HP?• No clear understanding yet of where the

platform will go

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Platforms: Tablets - Hot or Not?

+ The new black?• Hailed as future of laptops, magazines, books

and more

• c.15M iPads sold in 2010

• c.2 million Galaxy Tabs shipped by Xmas

+ They’re used to play games

• 62% of iPad app downloaders bought games (Nielsen)

• One of central tenants of Honeycomb android tablet OS is rich gaming

+ Hundreds more hitting the market…

• Over 100 tablets announced at CES

- …all with different specs?

• Form factor lottery

- Is it a fad?

• Tablet computing isn’t new and not yet essential for masses - too early to say if this will really hold up beyond Apple

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Platforms: bada - Hot or Not?

+ Weight of Samsung behind it• Samsung went big at MWC last year and bada

is a real pet projet

• Millions of Wave handsets out and more coming at competitive price

+ A universal solution?

• Plan was to have Bada in handsets, TVs, fridges, etc

+ Considerable developer support

• Regular prizes, extensive dev program

- Samsung refocusing on Android?

• Notably Samsung’s biggest pushes (Galaxy S and Tab) are Android not bada

- Mid to low end rather than high end?

• Although specs of early devices are good, whispers seem to suggest bada could become Samsung’s middle/low-end solution

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Platforms: Meego - Hot or Not?

+ Combined weight of Nokia and Intel• With two tech giants uniting it surely has legs

+ Higher specs promised

• Devices should be higher spec than the average smartphone (and symbian) to provide more powerful gaming potential

- Lack of momentum at present?

• After a year or so of taking still no device on the market

- Intel and Nokia not so united

• Big companies also mean big egos and potential ‘musical differences’

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Platforms: Java/Brew - Hot or Not?

+ Support from Operator portals• Still a massive audience and trusted brands

+ Higher pricepoints

• Operators never did the ‘race to the bottom’ €/£5

+ Huge penetration in emerging markets

• Smartphone penetration is small in BRIC and java rules

+ Less competition

• Less content on the decks generally

• Large publisher departure (I-play, Glu, Capcom, etc) means more opportunity and operators are hungry for content

- Traffic declining to operator portals

• In western markets (UK especially), the operator powers are weak

- A sunset market

• Ultimately, this isn’t the platform of the future

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Platforms: Netbooks - Hot or Not?

+ Intel’s AppUp program offers big audience• Intel are big players offering new market

• Potential convergence with mobile (Meego)

- Will paid for apps succeed vs the free flash/net?

• Flash gaming portals and casual games already exist in abundance via the internet - most are free

- Are Netbooks so last year?

• Will tablets increasingly replace netbooks anyway?

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Business Models: Hot or Not?

i) Paid download• + Success stories still coming - Doodle Jump,

Angry Birds, Flight Control, etc

• - Price points have been driven down in the prominent stores

ii) Ad-funded

• + Working for some - Rovio making up to $1M per month through Ads

• - Vulnerable model and effects consumer experience?

iii) Freemium

• + Huge growth in last few years and big profits being made

• + No barrier to entry

• - Is it a bubble - will hunger for virtual apps continue, are there enough ‘whales’?

• - Creative limitations? Design by business model vs creativity?

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General Trends - Hot or Not?

Price Wars• Went crazy at Xmas, EA Dominated the top 10

as a result but is whole industry poorer?

High-end console-style hardcore games

• Infinity Blade, Real Racing 2, Rage, etc

Social Gaming + social features for games

• DeNA/ngmoco, Zynga to iPhone, Playphone Social, Open Feint, Scoreloop etc

High-end console-style hardcore games

• Infinity Blade, Rage, Real Racing 2, etc

Proliferation of app stores

• Third party app stores vs operators vs OEMs

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Hot or Not in 2015….

Charles Macleod2015 HOT - Android devices feeding off Google’s massive investment in personal and

global social networking tools and solutions!

2015 Not hot, Symbian, Meego and Handheld consoles.

Oliver Breitfeld2015 HOT universal OS – on mobile, tablets, netbooks, TVs and multiple screen

games / Apps downloaded at various market places with flexible licenses.

Matt Wood (Amazon)TBC

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Hot or Not in 2015…

Brett Seyler’s view of 2015 (unabridged)• Android will rule (60%+ global market share), but will be even trickier to navigate than desktop PCs are

today from a fragmentation POV. Middleware will be crucial to targeting this entire platform at reasonable development costs.

• iOS will still be very lucrative for developers and a very interesting part of the market, but will not grow further than 30% of the global market.

• Nearly all other OS platforms will be variants of Android, or built atop Android, but there will be significant opportunity for OEMs to build value on top of Android, including their own content markets. The new fragmentation will be in "app stores" more than operating systems (Amazon, Verizon Vcast, etc.). The name of the game there will be billing, accounts (how many customers store credit cards), search, navigation and discover

• WP7 / Meego have an outside chance at significant market share, but I'd guess that they will need revolutionary advancements to claw marketshare from Android.

• Mac App Store will become

• the *exclusive* distribution channel for Macs (no independent distribution), making Apple *billions* of dollars every year.

• Freemium and subscription models will rule all software.

• Tablets will be a monstrous category for gaming, possibly as large as smartphones.

• The ad-based model will still be around, but only supplementary to freemium monetization

• Handheld "consoles" will be dead. In their place will be premium content channels from the largest publishers, including Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft. Reach prediction: Nintendo will sell a Mario game on a non-Nintendo device.

February 8-10th, 2011

Casual Connect Hamburg 2011

Cross-platform Mobile Development: Which Formats, Why Bother and How You Can Make It Easy On Yourself

Moderator: Chris James

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Your illustrious panel…

• Charles Macleod, CEO, Metaflow• Joanne Lacey, Global Content Director, Zed Group

• Dan Keegan, Director of Business Development, Open Feint

• Julia Palatovska, Business Development Director, G5

• Eyal Rabinovich, Co-Founder, Mo’ Minis• Alex Caccia, President, Ideaworks• The Moderator: Chris James, MD, Steel Media

mobile channels 2011 & beyond what is hot and what is not?

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