mma meis report final may 9 2013 meis... · 2013. 5. 8. · acknowledgments!!...
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Mobile Marketing Economic Impact Study Commissioned by the Mobile Marketing Association
Directed and produced by:
Peter A. Johnson and Joseph Plummer
With the assistance of Marina Bregman, Barbara Clark and Douglas Clark
In Partnership with IHS / Global Insight This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, the authors do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © Copyright MMA/mLightenment/IHS Global Insight, 2013. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the copyright holders.
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Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the hundreds of marketers, agencies, supplier firms, public policy experts and academics in the mobile marketing ecosystem who generously answered our detailed survey questionnaires, offered their experiences and insights during confidential interviews, and replied to our email inquiries. We regret we cannot thank them individually by name, we promised them all confidentiality. Special mention goes to our partners in economic impact research at IHS Global Insight, particularly Mike Raimondi and Scott Fleming and their associates in the economic consulting group. We also would like to thank current and former staff of the Mobile Marketing Association for their very helpful administrative assistance with fielding our surveys and in helping to arrange some of our interviews. Finally, the principal author gratefully acknowledges additional research assistance provided by Elizabeth Margid and Scott Aronin.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1
Understanding Mobile Marketing ............................................................................................. 13
Expenditure on Mobile Marketing Communications and Related Services .............................. 28
Mobile Marketing’s Sales Impact on the US Economy ............................................................. 49
Mobile Marketing’s Employment Impact .................................................................................. 80
Consumer Data Best Practices and Privacy ............................................................................... 84
Social Benefits from Mobile Marketing ..................................................................................... 95
Conclusion: From Mobile-‐Enhanced Media to a Mobile-‐Enhanced Economy ........................ 100
Methodology: Measuring and Modeling US Mobile Marketing Communications .................. 104
Appendix I: Summary Tables for Expenditures, Sales and Employment Impact by Industry .. 112
Appendix II: Definitions of Major Industry Groups .................................................................. 117
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Executive Summary
The Economic Impact of Mobile Marketing In the United States
The pages that follow report the results of a six-‐month investigation by the principal authors into the size and scope of the impact of mobile marketing on the United States economy, conducted at the behest of the Mobile Marketing Association.1 We found that the mobile marketing ecosystem…
• …exhibits remarkable levels of investment for an industry so young: $6.7 billion spent on it by client-‐side marketers and retailers across all industries in 2012, a figure likely to reach almost $20 billion by 2015;
• …contributes even more impressive levels of incremental output to the U.S. economy:
$139 billion in 2012, and reaching $400 billion by 2015, with at least 85% of this sales impact taking place in “off-‐line”, “brick and mortar” locations;
• …currently sustains over a half million jobs in 2012, and will likely support upwards of a
million and a half workers by 2015, including both direct and indirect employees; in fact, every single employee in a direct mobile marketing communications role will support over 23 workers in non-‐mobile occupations throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia in that year.
In interpreting these facts, the reader should bear in mind that these figures of increased economic output and employment are entirely comprised of supplemental U.S. income and jobs that would not exist but for the successful exchange of marketing communications through mobile media. We would be remiss if this first recital of mobile marketing’s quantitative achievements somehow failed to pay tribute to what we consider its no less impressive qualitative accomplishments. Every day that we worked on this project, we could not help but notice how the very industry we were studying so intensively was so busily transforming our society extensively. We would wake in the morning to hear one of its new gadgets lauded as the object of fascination on a radio broadcast; stepping outside our door, we saw the object of our study in constant use by our fellow pedestrians and commuters (heads down, hands and device forward, ear buds in); its 1 The Mobile Marketing Association commissioned this study in the summer of 2012, but the research was conducted entirely under the independent direction of the two principal authors from that moment forward.
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productivity tools indispensable to our own collaboration; its capacity to reinvent itself seemingly every few months dizzyingly if intoxicatingly relentless. But whether one uses hard numbers or soft impressions, the mobile marketing ecosystem presented us with a picture of economic vitality that in our experience is almost certainly unequalled anywhere else in the nation. It is that picture we briefly summarize in the next few pages, and fill out in the sections that follow. (Note: additional state-‐level information and information about individual industries can be found in the spreadsheets that accompany this report.)
Study Objectives
Our main goals in conducting this research were to: • Provide the mobile marketing ecosystem with its first objective and comprehensive picture
of its own size and contribution to US economic performance;
• Provide business decision-‐makers with data that can help them gauge overall trends in mobile marketing communications investment, sales impacts and employee resourcing in their industries;
• Take a snapshot of the industry’s current consumer data collection and privacy policy landscape so as facilitate forecasting of economic impacts and provide policy makers with a baseline from which to gauge the economic consequences of potential legislative changes.
Research Design: Expenditure, Sales, Employment
mLightenment’s approach measures mobile marketing’s economic impact consistent with mobile’s core value proposition as a marketing medium, namely its ability to increase sales (and by extension, employment) for client-‐side industries that invest in its services. This required us to quantify three key metrics: • Expenditure by industry on Mobile Marketing Communications and related services
• Sales Impacts (incremental net top-‐line revenues) to industry in any location resulting from marketing communications accessed by end-‐customers via their mobile devices. 2
2 “Any location” means sales impacts could take place either “on-‐line”, as mobile-‐enabled digital purchases (ie mCommerce ) or in the offline, brick and mortar world, such as in a convenience store, doctor’s office, or automobile dealership; all such real-‐world venues we group together under the umbrella term “mShopping.”
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• Employment Impacts comprising both advertiser employment (supported directly by industry expenditure on mobile marketing communications or related services); and seller employment (supported by the increased sales revenues resulting from mobile marketing communications.)
In addition, we calculated mobile’s “marketing impact ratio” (MIR), which is an industry’s total media sales impact divided by its total media expenditure. This metric allows us to compare the efficiency of marketing in a given media on a per-‐dollar of expenditure basis across industries, regardless of industry size. (See below, and methodology section of the main report.)
Expenditure On Mobile Marketing Already Significant & Will Grow Strongly
In 2012, mobile marketing communications expenditure in the US we estimate to be approximately $6.7 billion. This includes spending on three principal marketing communications categories of interest: mobile advertising, mobile direct response / enhanced traditional media and mobile CRM. Within the overall mix of mobile marketing communications, Mobile Media Advertising will remain the largest single component of spending over the forecast period, reaching $9.2 billion by 2015. But expenditure on mobile marketing communications is not limited merely to advertising in on-‐device media. Expenditure on mobile direct response (DR) advertising or mobile enhancements within non-‐mobile media is projected to grow the fastest, growing over four fold from 2012 to 2015, to almost $3 billion; and mobile CRM will continue to be the second largest source of expenditure -‐-‐ indeed, almost as significant as mobile advertising -‐-‐ through 2015, when it is expected to reach $7.6 billion. Combined expenditure on mobile marketing communications is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 52%, to reach $19.8 billion by 2015. In addition to the “media buy” of mobile marketing communications expenditure, we also measured separate “overhead” expenditures on supplemental marketing services and internal support costs that marketers and retailers incur as a direct result of their mobile marketing activities. (These include such costs as agency and PR fees, media measurement and metrics services, etc.) This class of expenditure represented an additional $3.9 billion in 2012, and will likely rise to $10.5 billion by the year 2015. Thus, when spending on mobile marketing related services and supplemental internal support is combined with that on marketing communications in mobile, total mobile marketing expenditure in the US attains $10.6 billion for 2012, and will reach $30.4 billion by 2015.
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Table 1: Mobile Marketing Communications Spending in United States ($Millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2010-‐2015
Mobile Marketing Investment 2,405 3,957 6,693 10,456 15,162 19,806 52%
Mobile Media Adv 991 1,743 3,060 4,871 7,078 9,207 56%
Mobile DR Enhanced Trad'l Adv 166 336 669 1,312 2,174 2,912 77%
Mobile CRM 1,248 1,878 2,964 4,273 5,910 7,686 44%
Source: mLightenment We also compared mobile marketing spending across the 16 broad industry groups into which we classified the US economy for the purposes of this study. Finance, retail (excl. CPG), and manufacturing (excl. CPG) are the three largest industries in terms of spending on mobile marketing. The three industries spent over $3 billion in 2012 or about half of total mobile advertising spending. In terms of growth, the resources industry (agriculture, mining, utilities, and construction) is projected to grow the fastest, followed by manufacturing (excl. CPG), and educational services. (Summary results for each industry can be found in the main body of this report, and full details for each industry can be found in excel workbooks that accompany this report.) Finally, we examined mobile marketing spending as it occurred at the state level. This shows differences across the states depending on the size of the states in terms of the economic and demographic attributes. The three largest states that generated the highest mobile marketing spending in 2012 were California ($865 million), New York ($587 million), and Texas ($573 million). We expect that these three states will comprise more than 30% of the total mobile marketing spending by 2015. North Dakota, Washington, and Texas are the states with largest expected rate of growth in mobile marketing spending, through 2015. (Full details for each state and the District of Columbia can be found in excel workbooks that accompany this report.)
Mobile’s Very Substantial Sales Impact On The U.S. Economy
Marketing communications via mobile have a very substantial and positive sales impact on the output of the U.S. economy, amounting to almost $140 billion in additional sales realized during the course of 2012. This figure is forecast to rise to just over $400 billion in 2015. 2015’s amount represents a vigorous five-‐year compound annual growth rate of 52%, relative to the $48 billion in net sales that mobile added to the U.S. economy back in 2010. Mobile Media is the largest contributor to advertising driven sales impact, followed by Mobile CRM. The sales impact and growth rates are expected to be roughly in line with the level of investments in the respective marketing categories.
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Table 2 Mobile Marketing Sales Impact in United States ($Millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2010-‐2015
Total Sales Impact 48,627 85,300 139,003 216,931 311,566 400,971 52%
Mobile Media Adv 25,530 46,814 73,811 115,010 163,052 204,345 52%
Mobile DR Enhanced Adv 2,705 5,694 10,280 18,866 30,059 36,682 68%
Mobile CRM 20,392 32,792 54,912 83,056 118,455 159,943 51%
Source: mLightenment The sales impact of mobile marketing varies across our 16 major industries and the expected rate of growth is influenced both by the extent of marketing investment and also the trend in mobile device adoption, media consumption and marketing engagement by key population demographics, particularly as these affect mobile marketing’s “share of mind” and share of “buying power” among end-‐customers relative to other media. While we have seen that the resources, manufacturing (excl. CPG), and the educational services are the fastest growing industries in terms of marketing investment, retail trade (CPG), manufacturing (CPG), and educational services are the fastest growing industries in terms of mobile marketing driven revenue contributions.
Marketing Impact Ratio (MIR) for Mobile Marketing Communications
Marketing Impact Ratio (MIR) is calculated by the simple formula: $ Total Industry Sales Impact / $ Total Industry Expenditure. Our research indicates that the marketing impact ratio (MIR) for mobile marketing communications probably peaked at a high of $20.77 in 2012. It is now expected to plateau or decline very slightly over the forecast period, reaching $20.25 in 2015. Two factors in particular account for this leveling off: first, we expect increased expenditure on mobile by marketers; second, we expect the demographic profile of the mobile end-‐customer, which previously was disproportionately comprised of younger, high income demographics, will begin to more closely resemble that of the U.S. population as a whole, especially as late-‐adopter segments acquire the latest generation of smart devices.
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Figure 1: MIR for Mobile Marketing Communications
However, not all categories of mobile marketing will have falling MIR – Mobile CRM is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4%, growing from $18.53 in 2012 to $20.81 by 2015. This is due to the increased role of consumers themselves in the distribution and even creation of marketing content via mobile-‐enabled social media and location-‐based services.
Marketing Impact Ratio by Industry: Does Mobile Escape the “Law of Diminishing Returns”?
The MIR and spending data raise one unexpected question: is it possible that the law of diminishing returns may not apply to mobile marketing spending? We observe that MIR figures for the top and bottom four mobile marketing spenders, by industry, seem to show that spending more does not decrease the impact rate as expected; on the contrary, the highest industry expenditure and the highest industry impact ratios go together, as do the lowest expenditures and the lowest MIR. While no more than suggestive, this observation is intriguing and deserves further exploration. We give more discussion and offer possible explanations for this at the end of the section “Mobile Marketing’s Sales Impact on the US Economy.”
Mobile Marketing’s Impressive Employment Impacts
Our research reveals that in 2012, spending by marketers on mobile marketing generated 524,000 jobs from the combination of advertiser employment and product seller employment. This is expected to reach an impressive 1.4 million jobs by 2015. Mobile marketing communications advertiser jobs are the most direct form of employment generation employing a number of people in activities such as ad designing, programming, analytics, marketing, administrative staff etc. In 2012, over 21 thousand persons were directly employed in mobile marketing communications occupations and the industry is projected to
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Mobile Marketing Mobile Media Adv Mobile DR Enhanced Trad'l Adv Mobile CRM
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employ 64 thousand such individuals by 2015, growing at an average rate of 44% per year. The Mobile DR category is expected to grow fastest, employing over nine thousand people by 2015. Table 3: Advertiser Employment From Mobile Marketing Communications
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2010-‐2015
Total Advertiser Employment 7,983 12,672 21,275 33,453 48,744 64,053 52%
Mobile Media Adv 3,265 5,540 9,655 15,465 22,568 29,512 55%
Mobile DR Enhanced Trad'l Adv 549 1,073 2,123 4,190 6,978 9,402 76%
Mobile CRM 4,169 6,059 9,497 13,798 19,197 25,139 43%
Source: mLightenment The number of mobile advertiser jobs by industry is proportional to the amount of expenditure in adverting. Thus, finance, retail, and manufacturing industries are also the largest markets for advertiser jobs. About 3.3 jobs were created in 2010 for every million dollar spent on mobile advertisement. This was 3.18 in 2012 and is projected to stay close to 3.2 during the forecast years. The incremental product sales resulting from successful deployment of mobile marketing will require hiring additional workers by the product sellers, manufacturers, or the service providers in order to scale up the production. In 2012, the seller employment attributed to mobile marketing is 502,562 persons. This is projected to grow at a rate of 40%, employing about 1.38 million persons by 2015. While the advertising spending is highest in the Mobile Media category, the seller employment impact is highest in Mobile CRM category. Table 4 Mobile Marketing Seller Employment
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2010-‐2015
Mobile Marketing Seller Employment 188,913 312,914 502,562 773,685 1,091,017 1,379,587 49%
Mobile Media Adv 84,055 145,013 222,885 340,840 468,767 570,239 47%
Mobile DR Enhanced Trad'l Adv 11,557 23,010 40,438 72,766 113,173 134,068 63%
Mobile CRM 93,301 144,891 239,239 360,079 509,077 675,280 49%
The seller employment by industry is driven by incremental sales demand generated in each industry as a result of the successful distribution of mobile marketing communications. In 2012, 75 seller jobs were created for every million dollar of mobile advertising spending. However, this is projected to fall by 2% annually, reaching 70 jobs per million dollar of advertising spending. Industry-‐specific seller employment impacts show that retail (other), finance, and professional services are the largest job creators. Seller employment in retail trade (CPG) will grow the fastest, followed by the professional services industry.
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Mobile Marketing’s Consumer Privacy Landscape
All of the foregoing impacts presuppose that the mobile marketing ecosystem continues to enjoy its current baseline levels of consumer trust and freedom from technologically inappropriate or economically counter-‐productive privacy legislation. Without consumer trust, no marketing media can sustain the high levels of customer engagement necessary to deliver scalable sales impacts. The always-‐on, always-‐present personal character of the mobile device introduces new communications opportunities for mobile marketers while raising new issues for the industry about how best to ensure consumers continue to trust the privacy practices of a medium they are already deeply engaged with. Various areas — particularly mobile apps’ ability to access consumer data, such as current location, address-‐books, etc.—currently represent areas of mobile technology where industry best practices are rapidly developing. On the self-‐regulatory front, the Digital Advertising Alliance (DAA), a coalition representing all the major marketing and advertising trade groups, will be releasing principles and guidelines for mobile. This forthcoming guidance, based on the existing and widely implemented DAA Self-‐Regulatory Principles, will apply to the mobile environment and respond to the fact that the principles may vary based on technological demands. The guidance therefore explains how the DAA principles of transparency and consumer control should be implemented in a mobile device setting. Data covered by the new guidance will include precise location data as well as data gathered across non-‐affiliated applications over time. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, the controls offered by platforms continue to evolve, providing consumers with new controls over data collection and use, as well as greater transparency, which should engender trust. Ultimately, our economic impact assessment for both sales and incremental jobs assumes that incremental adjustments at the regulatory and industry best practices level will continue to communicate trust and value to customers in a manner that sustains the massive shift underway to consumer media consumption and commercial activity via smartphones and tablets. That said, our report cannot exclude the possibility that a major economic shock arising from a legislative change to the public policy framework from Congressional or state-‐level legislators could alter the impact assessments reported here at some point during the forecast period. (For a more detailed discussion of privacy issues, see the section of this report on Consumer Data Best Practices and Privacy.)
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Envisioning the Mobile-‐Marketing Enhanced Society and Economy of Tomorrow
Mobile marketing’s impact in the United States reaches beyond the most obvious benefits that are easily measured in jobs and revenue. These include hard, but not impossible to quantify benefits to society at large, together with even subtler changes in marketer and consumer expectations about what the products and services and even communications opportunities in the marketplace of tomorrow will look like. These developments are pointing towards a “mobile marketing enhanced economy” just over the horizon. In the section of our study on mobile marketing’s social impact, we looked at several examples of how mobile marketing communications and have begun to merge with valuable “consumer content services” that are already starting to show the potential for enormous benefits on American society in areas that are not conventionally considered part of a media’s economic impact. For example: by reducing the time and thus gasoline expended looking for a parking spot, a simple parking app such as was introduced two years ago in San Francisco could potentially save $360,000 each day in gasoline and reduce air pollution. If it were extended across all major cities nationally, a simple app could have the potential to save hundreds of million of dollars in wasted gasoline each year, avoid significant quantities of air pollution, and save drivers untold hours of time. Likewise, currently existing apps from national pharmacy chains could easily have a dramatic effect on reducing adverse drug events (ADEs), many of which are attributable to missed does of prescription medications. ADEs lead to 700,000 avoidable emergency room trips each year, and well over 100,000 avoidable hospitalizations. Apps that remind customers to refill prescriptions or simply take medications on time could very conservatively save tens of millions annually in health care costs, simply by supporting U.S. patients suffering from diabetes, high cholesterol, and high blood pressure. These are but a tiny sliver of the blending of marketing and social benefit that is beginning to take place. We believe it heralds a new mindset in consumers that marketers themselves need to pay attention to. Too much of the debate about mobile we believe has been about its importance as the “third”, “second,” or even “first” screen for delivering advertising or marketing communications. We think the image of mobile as [mere] ‘screen’ needs to be deleted and replaced with something better: mobile as “camera” (or microphone, or digital crayon box -‐-‐ any active image will do.) Why is it important for marketers to replace ‘screen’ with ‘camera’? Simply this. As mobile smart consumers go about their daily lives, they do not think of themselves as passive inboxes for the branding ideas of others; instead, smart mobile consumers (younger ones, especially) think of themselves as ‘directors’ and ‘stars’ of their own lives; armed with mobile video camera, microphone, and yes, lights, they are the creative co-‐
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producers and co-‐distributors of original marketing communications that expresses their passionate interest in products or services or experiences they care about. And many of which mobile consumers will begin to co-‐create. In the mobile-‐marketing enhanced marketplace of tomorrow, the confluence of marketer-‐created but consumer directed mobile communications opportunities will open up more places for things to become far more than just products or services. As mobile-‐enhanced products and services, consumer-‐generated mobile content will add value that greatly exceeds the physical object to which it may be attached, or through which it may be delivered. The best of these mobile enhancements to brands we suspect will not necessarily come from brand managers. We suspect that eventually even the products themselves will be developed, promoted and perhaps even built by the smart mobile consumer with mobile baked in from the beginning -‐-‐ who knows, by building it using the 3-‐D printer in their garage -‐-‐ and of course, another mobile consumer will take a picture and post it, making the new mobile enhanced product of tomorrow a viral sensation before the paint on it is even dry. And all of this will be possible because the smart, mobile-‐enhanced marketers of tomorrow will find new ways to help it happen.
Addendum: An Overview of mLightenment’s Methodology
This study quantifies both the size of mobile marketing spending in the US and also the sales and employment impact of such activities. While the sales impact measures the value of additional revenues generated as a result of mobile marketing communications, the employment impact measures both the advertiser employment and seller employment. The advertiser employment includes the number of persons employed directly in the mobile marketing businesses. The seller employment includes the number of persons hired by the product seller or the manufacturers, in response to the incremental product demand arising out of mobile marketing communications sales lifts. For the purposes of assessing mobile marketing’s impact on the US economy, we began with the Mobile Marketing Association’s current definition of mobile marketing: “A set of practices that enables organizations to communicate and engage with their audience in an interactive and relevant manner through any mobile device or network.”3 Accordingly we defined mobile marketing communications expenditure as money spent by any industry to send, receive, or exchange any form of marketing communications (bought “advertising”, marketer “owned” content, or so-‐called “earned” social or word of mouth media) with mobile consumers via consumers’ qualifying mobile devices; and we defined mobile marketing’s sales impact as purchases of any industry’s goods or services in any location by
3“MMA Updates Definition of Mobile Marketing,” MMA, November 17, 2009, http://www.mmaglobal.com/news/mma-‐updates-‐definition-‐mobile-‐marketing
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end-‐customers as a result of marketing communications accessed via their qualifying mobile device.4 To ensure our economic metrics included the full scope of today’s mobile marketing, we researched mobile marketing communications in each of three different categories of marketing activity:
(1) Mobile Media Advertising (“bought” media) (2) Mobile Direct Response (DR) Enhanced Non-‐Mobile Media, (also “bought” media) (3) Mobile Content and Relationship Marketing (mCRM) (“owned” and “earned” media).
To ensure that expenditure and sales impacts within each type of marketing communications were non-‐overlapping and genuinely “mobile,” these marketing communications were analyzed into seven specific mobile media or connective technologies:
(1) Mobile Voice, (2) SMS/MMS, (3) Mobile Email, (4) Mobile Web, (5) Mobile Apps, (6) Proximity (Bluetooth, NFC, RFID), (7) Recognition (primarily QR codes, audio & image scanning, etc.).
Mobile marketing’s expenditure and economic impacts were measured by classifying the US economy into 16 major industry groups and applying an econometric modeling process that correlates categories of productive investment across all industries with sales accruing to those industries. These broad industry groups are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and are described in the Appendices to this report. (For a more thorough discussion of what our taxonomy includes, and why, please see the section titled Understanding Mobile Marketing.) The underlying calculations used to determine the sales and employment impact were done at the direction of mLightenment by its economic partners at IHS Global Insight, the world’s foremost industry research and econometric forecasting firm. Global Insight used its large macro-‐economic input-‐output model of the US economy, in which statistical methods compared industry expenditure on media and marketing with expenditures on other media and other factors inputs (e.g., IT, raw materials) for major industries. These were then correlated statistically with variations in intermediate and final demand for industry output across end-‐customer segments (both mobile and non-‐mobile) over time. The model’s resulting input-‐
4 Qualifying devices primarily means feature phones, smartphones, tablets and eReaders; and “mobile consumers” always includes business users, unless otherwise indicated.) In addition to expenditure on the variable costs of the “media buy”, we separately calculated the more “fixed”, or “overhead” costs incurred with related mobile marketing services providers, such as agencies, research providers, etc.
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output coefficients identify that portion of any industry’s revenue that is uniquely attributable to mobile marketing communications.
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Understanding Mobile Marketing The objective of our research was to measure the size and impact of mobile marketing on the US economy. More than we realized when we first embarked on this work, the necessary first step of defining what mobile marketing is—deciding what “counts” as mobile marketing and what does not—would prove to be a research undertaking unto itself. What we found was a device whose power, ubiquity and versatility was already beginning to sweep away a century’s worth of deeply held assumptions and categories. A decade ago researchers could have counted on knowing automatically what the various marketing media were, what their boundaries were that separated them, what were the specific, separate and distinct roles of players in the industry: retailers sold things, publishers distributed news and entertainment, marketers bought advertising or distributed coupons and anonymous, ordinary people leaned back to consume media at home and buy products in stores, while researchers tried to connect the former to the latter. Today, in a marketing world more and more conquered by smart consumers armed with smartphones and smart tablets, this clarity is no longer the case.
What Is Mobile Marketing?
According to the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), “Mobile marketing is a set of practices that enables organizations to communicate and engage with their audience in an interactive and relevant manner through any mobile device or network.”5 Our study takes this definition as our point of departure, but makes a slight adjustment to make it more immediately applicable to an economic impact study. For us, therefore, mobile marketing comprises any exchange of or engagement with marketing communications that occur between or among marketers and end customers via customers’ wirelessly connected mobile devices. By the term “wirelessly connected,” we mean all the various means of transmitting voice, text messages, Internet traffic (data) and GPS over a wide area and also the proximate ways that mobile devices can exchange information within and with their immediate environments—e.g., scanning, swiping, tapping, bumping, etc. By the word “exchange,” we mean not merely the one-‐way broadcasting of messages from marketers to end users or customers, but also end-‐user communications to marketers, whether they are responses to such messages or messages sent on a consumer’s own initiative; we also include “word of mouth” marketing communications6 that may be created by mobile 5 www.mmaglobal.com 6 According to the Word of Mouth Marketing Association, WOM is “the sharing of marketing-‐relevant information among consumers” and WOM marketing is “efforts by an organization to encourage, facilitate and amplify marketing-‐relevant communication among consumers.” We follow WOMMA in regarding Social Media marketing and WOM marketing as closely related but not synonymous. For definitions and discussion of WOM and Social
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consumers about a third-‐party product, service or company or mobile-‐shared with peers, such as when a consumer snaps a picture of a product in a store with their smartphone and forwards it to a friend or family member with a recommendation that they buy it. This may seem like a fairly sweeping definition, and it is. As we will see below, we believe it fits the facts of today’s mobile marketing. Anything more restrictive would mislead the reader about how much mobile marketing is poised to explode the meaning of marketing well beyond traditional advertising pushed to a screen. Who are the players in mobile marketing? For measuring expenditure on mobile marketing, the key players are, first of all, marketers in any industry that spend money to create, send, or receive mobile marketing communications. Marketers, for us, include retailers. Industry’s marketing communications dollars are spent with business services providers of two kinds: a) providers of mobile advertising inventory (publishers and networks, including non-‐digital -‐ about this, see more below) and mobile content platform providers and developers (such as those providing access to the SMS network for marketers, or who develop proprietary apps on marketers’ behalf); and b) providers of related mobile marketing services, such as advertising and PR agencies, audience measurement and analytics services providers, and network access providers. In terms of measuring the sales impacts, our population of interest is “mobile equipped end-‐customers and prospects.” This term—which we shall generally avoid using in favor of mobile consumers—includes all end users of wirelessly connected mobile devices, whether they own the device (and pay its network access charges) or are merely users of devices owned and paid for by someone else. Mobile consumers therefore include individuals whose device is part of a family plan owned by a principal subscriber as well as individuals whose employers have issued them a device. In the pages that follow, then, the corporate road-‐warrior with her company-‐issued Blackberry or iPad is not forgotten.
How Mobile Marketing Is Transforming Marketing
Although the use of mobile phones is nearly universal in the U.S.—published figures estimate that over 85% of the American adult population has a mobile subscription, the great majority of which are at 3G speeds, or faster—the mobile phone as a vehicle for exchanging phone calls is but a tiny piece of the communications platform on which mobile marketing rests. Three important implications followed for our study.
Media Marketing’s ROI implications, see Solving The ROI Riddle: Perspectives from Marketers on Measuring Word of Mouth Marketing, p. 3ff. Word of Mouth Marketing Association, 2012. Available at http://members.womma.org/p/cm/ld/fid=17&tid=38&sid=128
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The first is that Americans are now more and more ubiquitously tethered to digital communications via their mobile—physically and virtually—and we realized that the form and content of communications could no longer be defined by the device or network that carried it. If we didn’t already realize that video was no longer synonymous with TV in the living room, audio with radio in the car, or “news” was delivered by “paper” or “direct” was to be followed by “mail”, studying the myriad ways in which mobile devices transgress ancestral media, content, and format boundaries has convinced us of it. Whether it was disentangling the volume of Internet traffic that was PC or mobile based, or figuring out what difference it made whether much social media video was being consumed on tablets while the consumer was watching TV, the media researcher has their work cut out for them. A decade or so ago, it would have been easy to say what was mobile and what wasn’t: it was the black plastic brick you held to your ear while you shouted to make yourself understood. Today’s mobile device is a toolkit of multiple media held in front of us like an electronic dowsing rod, a communications matrix of virtual ecosystems, each of which seems to have not only its defining technical attributes but also its own folkways. These devices are redefining the entire media landscape and creating a variety of “mobile microclimates” based on the varying combinations of devices people choose to employ for particular places and purposes as they travel through their daily lives. For marketers, understanding mobile microclimates such as “show-‐rooming” is the heart of the mobile marketing challenge and opportunity. The second implication is that consumers, particularly in the US, are adopting an increasing variety of smart mobile devices (such as iPods, iPads, mini tablets, and e-‐readers) that are no less mobile than their phones and, from a marketing standpoint, may become even more valuable. These devices enjoy greater compatibility with various kinds of consumer content (such as video and games), greater flexibility in marketing communications (such as rich media advertising through apps), and greater utility in certain marketing situations (such as interactive, out-‐of-‐home advertising, and in-‐store comparison shopping). The third consequence for us involved realizing how beholden marketers are to some very static measurement assumptions and resources, systems that, except for those of out-‐of-‐home advertising and drive-‐time radio, assume that content and marketing communications are distributed in discrete, self-‐contained chunks and that viewership, readership, and listenership take place at certain fixed spots at certain appointed hours. But all of this is far too static for the mobile media delivery and consumer consumption habits that stared us in the face. The more flexible, dare we say “mobile,” metrics needed to measure mobile marketing are still, relatively speaking, in their infancy, but more are needed, and more marketers need to learn them when they arrive.
Location: The Defining Attribute of Mobile Marketing
In principle, every mobile device must be uniquely “locatable” in real time within an electronic network in order to receive and correctly route individualized, two-‐way network
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communications. For that reason, we consider identifiable location to be THE defining feature of the mobile marketing ecosystem. We define mobile devices as those that are uniquely identifiable and location-‐aware while roaming anywhere within an electronic network. Usually, these devices integrate one of the following forms of location-‐aware technology.
Location-‐Based Services: From Network Location to Real-‐World Location
Originally, network location in cellular was necessary for routing calls between devices. It was determined by calculating the distance a cell phone was from numerous short-‐range broadcast towers distributed in a honeycomb of “cells” around the country. But it was not long before the mobile ecosystem realized that by converting a meaningless network location into an approximate real-‐world geographic location within a several-‐block radius (assuming an urban environment), new kinds of services could be provided to the consumer -‐ and eventually, to marketers. This opportunity became even more attractive once mobile devices equipped with GPS transceivers allowed the device to be located in real-‐time within a very precise radius -‐-‐ often a matter of a mere meter or two. Location-‐based services (LBS) are perhaps the most important and distinctive content contribution of the mobile ecosystem to the marketing industry, since other media, including the desktop Internet, are normally not able to target user location much more precisely than within the radius of a city or county. They comprise publisher and/or marketing communications content containing structured geographical information tailored to the mobile recipient’s precise real-‐time location.7 LBS includes things such as maps, turn-‐by-‐turn driving and walking directions, buddy-‐locators, location-‐based social media platforms such as Yelp and hyper-‐locally targeted advertising, including so-‐called “geo-‐fencing” in which the mobile device receives different advertising content based on its presence within a perimeter defined by the advertiser. For marketers, real-‐time awareness of consumers’ hyper-‐local current location opens new and exciting vistas of popular consumer content and marketer segmentation and targeting that many expect to attract large audiences and boost the effectiveness of almost all marketing communications associated with them, potentially allowing marketers to infer—though not quite yet—what consumers are most likely interested in buying at certain times in a particular context or while traveling along certain routes, thus increasing the relevance of marketing communications, resulting in increased utility and higher net impact for the marketer—much as the less precise ZIP-‐Code and census tract segmentation does for direct mailers. But first the consumer must “opt-‐in.” Tapping “I agree” when an app’s privacy dialogue box pops up to ask if you want to share your current location is a vote of confidence the marketer or publisher is asking the consumer to make millions of times a day. Sharing location information with publishers and marketers offers numerous benefits, including access to mapping services, directions, social connections, weather reports, and even astronomical data.
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Various popular apps such as Foursquare, Gowalla, and Loopt rely on location information, but our study had to confront how many consumers take the location plunge, and what difference it makes for the economy. Our research suggests that though the exact formats and beneficiaries of locations based services are likely to change, location-‐based technologies and services will continue to grow in power and precision as marketers learn how to make more effective use of them and as consumers understand and become comfortable with the benefits of sharing location information.
SoLoMo (Social-‐Location-‐Mobile): An Acronym to Reckon With
A similar situation confronted us with social media, especially the confluence of mobile and location with social networking known as SoLoMo. Readers whose formative experience with social networking was shaped by the desktop (or laptop) Internet may not fully appreciate just what a perfect marriage has been consummated between smart devices and socially enabled on-‐the-‐go, any-‐format-‐any-‐time consumer content creation and sharing. Enjoying your restaurant outing? Snap a pic of the dessert you’re sharing with your wife and share it with the in-‐laws on Facebook. Wondering where the guys went after the game? Search for their check-‐ins. Want to rave about the latest hipster fashions roaming the streets of Williamsburg? Take a video and post it on YouTube, while waiting for your next sampler pack of new products to review on Influenster. Where you are and who you are come together on the mobile device—but how much of Pinterest, YouTube or Twitter is mobile? The capability of the consumer (again, always remembering to include the B2B end customer) to use their mobile device to generate and share marketing relevant content anywhere, anytime, must therefore be factored into what we mean by mobile marketing’s economic impact.
Mobile’s Marketing Value Proposition: Mobility, Portability, Individuality, Personality
Mobile is often said to be uniquely attractive to marketers because of its “always present, always on, always connected” nature, an attribute said to offer unrivalled opportunities for ubiquitous 1:1 personalized communications. On reflection we realized this phrase conflated several distinct aspects of how mobile devices are redefining the marketing relationship, features that may work simultaneously and synergistically with each other, but are worth distinguishing to define what mobile is, in order to calibrate its impact correctly. The first is mobile’s mobility, which we define as the device’s ability to roam geographically while remaining connected to its networks. Mobility depends as much, if not more, on the provision of network access than it does on the devices themselves, though the latter can be an important consideration for consumers who may decide what type or amount of network access they are willing to pay for. Many customers of the first wave of iPads, for example, elected not to buy a wireless subscription for their devices, which limited their “mobility” (our sense) to Wi-‐Fi hotspots, even though they were completely portable. Mobility also includes a device’s ability to interact with its immediate context using its non-‐networked connective technologies media, e.g., by scanning a QR code displayed on a shelf tag inside a store, or NFC to tap an “N-‐Mark” contained in an electronic billboard in an airport.
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The second important aspect of mobile media’s value proposition refers to portability. Portability is the propensity of a consumer to keep a medium or device on their person at all times, and to engage with it, even as they move from place to place and from activity to activity. It is often said mobile devices are the one thing people always have with them—and compared with other devices this probably a good rule of thumb. But how much engagement mobile audiences have with their devices throughout the day, and with what specific content or for what purposes depends on many contextual and circumstantial variables, and the exact amount of time spent matters for comparing mobile’s “share of mind” with that of other media. And this should be researched, not merely asserted. Individuality for us means the capacity for communications exchanged via the device or any particular media therein to reach a unique individual, only that unique individual, and the whole of that unique individual. It is closely dependent on the individual level addressability of different media (SMS is, the web less so); and the exclusivity of device or media by the end-‐consumer (i.e. do they have multiple devices or not; do they share this device or not.) Personality, finally, refers to the ability of particular mobile media and device hardware to support the creation, uploading, sharing, receiving, and downloading of personally created or customized content. It is closely connected to the openness or customizable quality of the device or operating system, and the ability of the media to support interactive, two-‐way communications: In other words -‐ how much scope does the device allow the consumer to make it their own, or to become their own publisher?
Mobile’s Impact on Categories of Marketing Activity
The mobile value proposition analyzed above—mobility, portability, personality, individuality—necessarily required us to update traditional categories of marketing activity so we could clearly recognize the different types of expenditure and sales impacts arising in these quite distinct marketing communications environments.
• Mobile Media Advertising: The most obvious and traditional of our categories, it involves the (paid) placement of marketing communications within third-‐party published content transmitted directly onto the mobile device. It may be purchased on a scale of audience basis (cost-‐per-‐thousand views or impressions) or it may be purchased on a performance basis, such as pay-‐per-‐click. While this category is normally fairly clear-‐cut, it does include such ambiguous activities such as paying for “sponsored stories” in social media.
• Mobile Direct Response or Enhanced Advertising in Non-‐Mobile Media. As discussed
below, today’s smart devices have the potential to integrate with virtually any other medium, object or context. This means first, that mobile has an important role as a conduit for responding to direct-‐response calls to action placed in non-‐mobile media. This may involve calling an 800 number, or texting to a short code, etc. to receive an
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offer from a marketer, or to opt-‐in to receive SMS alerts, or icons prompting the consumer to follow the brand on Twitter or some other mobile-‐social media. But not all mobile-‐enhanced interactions with non-‐mobile media involve “direct response” in the classic sense of a message returned to the marketer. The interaction may involve supplemental communications delivered to the device with no further expectation of response (e.g., many QR codes simply convey additional product information when scanned). Importantly, the versatility of mobile enhancement technologies is such that the range of advertising media had to be expanded to include things like packaging, which traditionally was not considered an ad medium.
• Mobile Content and Relationship Marketing (mCRM). In contrast to the above two
“bought” media advertising categories, this activity includes any communications transmitted to or from the mobile device that is “owned” by the marketer or “earned” by them as a result of user-‐generated content or viral sharing on mobile devices. Thus, owned media would include the marketer’s content on its mobile websites (in fact, all of what is now being called “content marketing” finds its way into this category so long as it is accessible via mobile devices) or on-‐going communications the marketer sends to customers who have opted-‐in to receive SMS alerts, or who “follow” (subscribe to) its communications on a social media site, or use a downloaded branded mobile app utility, (e.g., to compare prices, get recommendations, place orders for home delivery, etc.)
Mobile earned media includes marketing communications pertaining to a particular company, product or service that are created or distributed by end-‐customers or by third-‐parties (such as bloggers or journalists) via mobile devices or media. Such media is “earned” because strictly speaking, the marketing communications is not sponsored by the marketers themselves. Examples would include consumer-‐filmed short videos of a friend enjoying a product which gets posted to mobile-‐accessible social media, virally forwarded links in mobile messaging, “tweets” about products advertised on TV, product reviews and recommendations, or consumer “likes” of brand pages on social media—all to the extent they are accessed by end-‐customers via qualifying mobile devices.
Types of Qualifying Mobile Devices
What then is a qualifying mobile device? Here we list the principal categories of electronic devices that our report defines as “mobile” for the purposes of measuring the size and impact of the mobile marketing ecosystem. This categorization shapes our efforts to interpret historical data on mobile marketing and forecast future developments, because so much of the expenditure opportunity and sales impact of mobile marketing depends on the adoption and usage rates in the US population of successive generations of mobile devices with increasing power and utility for transmitting mobile content and marketing communications. Our four major device categories and some of their distinguishing attributes:
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Basic or “Entry-‐level” Phones
♦ No screen ♦ Simple 123/ABC “telephone” keypad ♦ Support cellular voice calls only ♦ Note: these devices have almost disappeared from the market; the few remaining
may have some marginal impact on calls to 800-‐numbers
Feature Phones ♦ A twelve-‐button ABC/123 keypad ♦ A small postage-‐stamp screen ♦ Support cellular voice; texting (SMS and MMS); ♦ Limited access to data / messaging, usually at 2G or 2.5G speeds ♦ Limited ability to display certain simple mobile websites (WAP), usually via the mobile
carrier’s “portal” ♦ Can download limited digital content, such as ringtones, screensavers, wallpaper, and
games ♦ A low resolution digital camera
Smartphones8
♦ Network accessibility includes cellular voice, texting, data, and Wi-‐Fi ♦ Cellular voice, text, and broad-‐band data at 3G speeds or faster ♦ Nearly full access to the Internet via web browsers ♦ GPS, Wi-‐Fi, and Bluetooth ♦ Large screen displays, usually touch, pinch, spread, and swipe sensitive ♦ A full Qwerty keyboard, whether built into the hardware as buttons, or via
touchscreen ♦ The ability to download apps from an “app store” that deliver rich content and
enhance device functionality ♦ Front-‐ and back-‐facing cameras for good quality still and motion photography ♦ A multitude of additional passive sensors, including motion sensors such as
accelerometers, gyroscopes, etc. ♦ Fully supported music and video content ♦ Some most recent models include voice recognition, pre-‐installed smart code
readers, and NFC
Tablets (including Mini Tablets and E-‐Readers) Mostly similar to smartphones, except:
♦ Significantly larger screen format and lacking cellular voice;
8 This includes advanced email readers such as BlackBerrys, networked MP3 players, such as the iPod “Touch,” and certain advanced digital assistants made by Palm and others, to the extent they have more or less complete Internet access.
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♦ A mobile data subscription is often not automatically bundled with a tablet purchase, meaning many tablets are Wi-‐Fi-‐only
Below is a list of devices that our report does not include under the definition of “mobile.”
• Desktops, Laptops, Netbooks: These are not included as mobile device for our purposes, since most do not meet our test of mobile network locatability and awareness. Nor do we include laptops or netbooks “tethered” to mobile device’s network, though we recognize a case could be made for doing so.
• Game Players and Consoles: While many of these devices are responsible for a large volume of sales of digital, downloaded game content, we felt that they do not meet the test of location mobility.
• Smart Automobiles: Many US automobiles are now networked in a variety of ways,
particularly via GPS devices, “OnStar” type driver assistance platforms, satellite radio, etc., many of which can be updated remotely (thus enabling a kind of mobile publishing). In addition, many late-‐model automobiles, especially at the high end of the market, are now including more sophisticated Internet-‐capable devices that remain networked as the car moves, thus meeting our “mobility test.” However, because these devices stay with the vehicle, not the driver, we exclude these devices for failing our study’s personal portability criteria.
• Smart Homes: Similar to the case of smart vehicles, the future suggests growth in smart homes. To the extent that mobile devices are capable of access information from a smart home (e.g., a smart refrigerator, freezer, or pantry) to determine which items need to be restocked, and use that information as the basis for a marketing relevant communication, such as in a shopping list app, we consider the marketing communication to be on-‐device, and therefore mobile. But exchanges of information between the static location of the smart home and another static location, such as a retail outlet or an appliance manufacturer, would fail our tests of mobility and portability.
• Mobile Apparel (watches, glasses, wristbands, etc.). Clearly, many wearable items are now being designed to access mobile networks of one kind or another, and thus meet the criteria of mobility and portability as our study defines them. We exclude these devices only because they are too new and too few to be measurable. We expect this situation will change very rapidly, and that future iterations of this study would need to take them into consideration.
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Drilling Down: Individual Mobile Media and Connections
As noted above, “mobile” is not a single media but a diverse range of networks, connective technologies and sensory capabilities (such as accelerometers and gyrsoscopes) that may be found on the devices indicated above. To the extent they enable or enhance other, non-‐mobile media or contexts, they transform those media into “mobile enhanced” media, at least in part. These considerations oblige us to clarify the features and uses of these distinct components of the mobile marketing media landscape, since the technologies involved often create very distinct opportunities for, and constraints on, how consumers, publishers, and ultimately marketers can use them, and thus generate the economic impacts we seek to measure. Thus, the following is an all-‐too-‐brief overview of some of these defining attributes of the major mobile marketing media.
Mobile Voice
Mobile voice—the original mobile medium—refers to the use of cellular networks to communicate the spoken word, usually between two devices, i.e., peer-‐to-‐peer (P2P) conversations.9 The use of mobile voice for marketing purposes is extremely limited, since under US law outbound telemarketing to cell phone numbers is prohibited except under extremely limited circumstances. Mobile voice expenditure within this study is therefore included only insofar as a portion of advertising in other media stimulates inbound, consumer-‐initiated calls to a call center, or prompts consumers to place inquiries or orders via automated interactive voice response (IVR). For mobile voice, then, the economic impact consists of the estimated value of the orders received from mobile voice calls, regardless of whether placed with a live person or with an automated, menu-‐driven service.
Mobile Messages: SMS, MMS, and Instant Messages (IM)
SMS, or short message service (due to the format’s 160 character maximum), was the first mobile-‐native technology to be used for marketing purposes. The message network, like the voice network, is addressable via a unique cell phone number either associated with a SIM card or hardwired into a mobile device. The sending of bulk unsolicited text messages, i.e., spam, is prohibited under US law, though sending of bulk messages on an opted-‐in express consent basis (A2P messaging) is permitted.10 Access to cellular networks for sending opt-‐in, A2P messaging is itself tightly regulated by US carriers and industry associations. Use of short codes—a five-‐ or six-‐digit number that can be
9 Currently, we classify VoiP (i.e., internet-‐based voice services, such as Skype) as part of mobile apps. 10 The sending of text messages is not free anywhere, but the US differs from other markets in that recipients are also charged when they receive texts. Consumers may be billed on a per-‐text basis or may buy “all you can eat” messaging plans. This cost consideration may be a disincentive for some consumers who might otherwise opt-‐in to participate in CRM marketing programs or subscribe to branded content.
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displayed in non-‐mobile media—are used to facilitate direct response or ongoing communications, and the marketing communications plans that use them require preapproval by mobile carriers and industry associations. Because of messaging’s individual-‐level addressability, it is a natural vehicle for opt-‐in, subscription-‐based publishing (in which a tiny amount of space can be available for third-‐party advertising). It also supports direct one-‐to-‐one marketing relationship communications between marketers and opted in customers. Texting is also easily incorporated with non-‐mobile media for direct response campaigns. SMS may also be used to market and distribute downloadable and other premium content, such as ringtones, a feature known as Premium SMS (PSMS). PSMS is charged to subscribers’ phone bills or a prepaid account. MMS, or multimedia message service, is sometimes referred to as picture or video messaging to help differentiate it from SMS. MMS is delivered almost the same way as SMS, but can include multimedia attachments such as images, audio, video, and rich text, often in a slide-‐show format. Instant messaging takes place via the Internet, and therefore technically is a different medium. It is primarily embedded in websites, proprietary device operating systems, or within certain social media. Though there are recent indications that IM may be replacing texting among some audiences, its role in mobile marketing is too nascent to be included in this study.
Mobile E-‐Mail
While its origins predate the mobile phone, email is now an important part of the mobile marketing landscape. An e-‐mail message can be transmitted to or from any standard data network, whether landline or Wi-‐Fi, or through a mobile carrier network. E-‐mail can be an effective means of delivering messages to a smartphone, a data-‐enabled mobile device (such as a tablet), or a dedicated e-‐mail device (such as a BlackBerry). Any meaningful difference in addressability between mobile and non-‐mobile e-‐mail lies in the metadata that the device appends in the header to the e-‐mail transmission, thus enabling a response to be identified as coming from a mobile device. And, like its PC-‐based original, the bulk sending of unsolicited commercial email (spam) is prohibited except under certain limited exceptions. As an opt-‐in marketing medium, mobile e-‐mail offers all the possibilities of conventional email, such as direct response and opted-‐in CRM “owned media” communications, such as newsletters. But it also offers the great advantage that the customer or prospect often has the device on her person, allowing for the potential of a more immediate impression or response in many more contexts. In addition, mobile email intended for a smartphone or tablet can include links that enable the recipient to leverage features unique to the mobile device, download the marketer’s mobile app, or “click to call” features embedded in the email.
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For purposes of calculating mobile email’s sales impact, we look at “mobile-‐accessed marketing e-‐mail” i.e., all e-‐mail containing marketing communications that are accessed and read on qualifying mobile devices by end-‐customers. For our expenditure calculations, we measure “mobile-‐optimized marketing e-‐mail” as those marketing communications marketers intentionally send to and design for the form factors of mobile devices as distinguished from those of the fixed-‐line e-‐mail environment.
Mobile Web
As in the traditional PC-‐based Internet, the Web refers to digital content that has been created using specially designed computer code for display via a browser, and which the browser pulls from