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©2017 Deloitte Hungary

Recent trends in bankingBalázs Bíró Partner, Regional Financial Services Industry Leader, Financial Head of Portfolio Lead Advisory Services in the CEE region

MKT Vándorgyűlés - September 2017

Partner, Regional Financial Services Industry Leader, Financial Advisoryregion

There are three main trends global banking executives are currently dealing withBanking market trends

Deleveraging1

Consolidation2

Focus on selected segments Downsizing

NPL sale Non-core divestiture

Capital and balance sheet optimization


Consolidation

Digital - Fintech

2

3

Non-core exit Acquisitive growth

Economies of scale

Digital bank Enablers Disruptors

Data analytics Cyber security

Customer experience New entrants

There are three main trends global banking executives are currently dealing with

regulatory environment


Deleveraging1

Consolidation2


Digital - Fintech3

Consolidation2


After years of efforts, the European banks still have

Deleveraging

€410bn

1.4%

€79bn

10.9%

€220

€175bn

5.5%


Source: Deloitte Intelligence as of 31 Dec 2016

€355bn

9.1%

€71bn7.3%

€220bn

4.6%

€354bn

12%

€50bn2.3%

€203bn

2.7%

CEE

€133bn

34.4%

Non-core and NPL volumeNPL ratio*average

After years of efforts, the European banks still have € 2trn NPLs in the books

Global NPL outlook

Total Non-core and

NPL

€2trn

1

2

3

Global NPL outlook

Source: IMF, Central banks, Deloitte Analysis, Banco Central do Brasil and BNDES. Based on official 2016 data.

€210bn €120bn

€60bn

€150bn

€ 2,000bn

€61bn

10.3%*

CEE

bn

34.4%

€170bn

The record rate of loan disposals achieved in 2015 has been repeated again in 2016, with just over €104bn of completed deals

Deleveraging

Transaction activity by year (Europe, € bn)

Source: Deloitte Intelligence as of 30 June 2017

€104,1

€104,3

€82,9

2016

2015

2014


Profitability increase and capital release (market pressure)

Non-core divestiture

€42,02017

Motivation

The record rate of loan disposals achieved in 2015 has been repeated again in 2016,

Completed

Ongoing

1

2

3

Regulatory pressure

Cheap funding

€86,5

UK and Irish markets are exhausting, investor focus is turning towards the Mediterranean and CEE regions

Deleveraging

8,1

23,5

21,9

30,6

17,3

40,2

14

22,9

36,0

13,0

13,3

13,0

9,3

20,2

3,7

43,5

32,3

Italy

UK

Spain

Ireland

Activity by country (2014-2017 H1)



2,1

2,2

5,3

1,6

11,8

7,5

6,4

2,3

0,2

3,2

3,8

3,3

Netherlands

Germany

Austria & CEE

Portugal

Greece

Cyprus

Nordics

France

Frontier …

2014 2015 2016 2017

UK and Irish markets are exhausting, investor focus is turning towards

Number of completed deals (2016)

43

31 2211

11875

Italy Spain Austria & CEE


1

2

3

Italy Spain Austria & CEE

Portugal Netherlands Ireland

18

12 7 12

3

15

Italy SpainAustria & CEE PortugalGermany NetherlandsIreland UKFrance Frontier markets

Number of completed deals (2017 H1)

Ongoing


However NPL ratios in the region fell in 2016compared 2014, they are still above the EU average

Deleveraging

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

Source: EBA Risk Dashboard

NPL ratios in the EU countries (2016)


[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

Gre

ece

Cyp

rus

Po

rtu

gal

Italy

Slo

ven

ia

Ire

lan

d

Bu

lga

ria

Hun

gar

y

Cro

atia

Rom

ania

Po

lan

d

Sp

ain

Au

stri

a

Ma

lta

Source: EBA Risk Dashboard

However NPL ratios in the region fell in 2016compared 2014, they are still

EU average

1

2

3

Slo

vaki

a

Lith

ua

nia

Fra

nce

Be

lgiu

m

Lat

via

Den

ma

rk

Ge

rma

ny

Net

herl

and

s

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

UK

Nor

wa

y

Fin

lan

d

Est

on

ia

Lux

em

bo

urg

Sw

ede

n

Still considerable NPL volumes are present in the region, especially in the retail segment

Deleveraging

HU3bn RO

7bn1.5

0.92.3


Regional NPL snapshot


BG6bn

SLO

SRB3bnHR

5bn

SLO2bn

SEE: c.€29bn

7bn

BA1bn

Completed transaction face value 2015

NPL Portfolio

Ongoing transactionface value

3.5

0.1

0.3

1.50.7

0.60.9

0.50.1

Still considerable NPL volumes are present in the region, especially in the retail segment

0,3

0,5

2,4

1,2

1,4

3,2

2,4

1,6

Consumer

Mixed

Corporate


Activity by asset class - SEE2015 – 2017 H1 (€ bn)

1

2

3

Completed transaction face value 2015-2016

ortfolio 2016

Ongoing transaction

0,3

0,8

1,2

0,8Residential real

estate

Consumer

Completed 2015 Completed 2016 Ongoing

Future outlook in the region

Deleveraging

Corporate NPL volumes are shrinking considerably in Romania and Hungary, although NPL supply showed only a moderate decrease in the Adriatic region

Investors turned their interest


Investors turned their interest towards retail mortgages in 2016

The declining supply of unsecured NPLs resulted in increasing prices

Secondary NPL transaction markets are reviving and activity is expected to further increase in the forthcoming years

The NPL markets of the Mediterranean

1

2

3

The NPL markets of the Mediterranean countries (Italy, Spain, Greece) is expected to rise and attract significant investor focus

The NPL markets in the CE are expected to exhaust in 1-2 years, incumbent banks will wind down their existing volumes to a sustainable level by then


Deleveraging1

Consolidation2


Digital - Fintech3

Consolidation2


Smaller markets have generally significant concentration in the banking sector, however the Hungarian market is disperse

Consolidation

Source: Report on financial structures – ECB, October 2016, Raiffeisen CEE Banking Sector Report 2017 June, Eurostat

Market shares of the top 5 banks in the EU

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE]

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mark

et

share

of

To

p5

ban

ks



[CELLRANGE]


[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Mark

et

share

of

To

p5

ban

ks

GDP (EUR bn)

Smaller markets have generally significant concentration in the banking sector,

ECB, October 2016, Raiffeisen CEE Banking Sector Report 2017 June, Eurostat

1

2

3


[CELLRANGE][CELLR

ANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

1 000 3 000 5 000

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

400 450 500

Consolidation already begun in the region, several regional and international player has exited the region in recent years

Consolidation

#63

49.0%

Source: Raiffeisen CEE Banking Sector Report 2017 June

Regional banking market


#27

56.7%

#3054.9%

#2364.4%

#28

74.1%

#35

48.7%

#45

64.7%

#xx – Number of banks in the countryxx% - Overall market share of the Top 5 banks

#2773.0%

#1660.9%

#36

59.1%

Consolidation already begun in the region, several regional and international player

Banks gradually exiting the region

1

2

3

Poland

Hungary 6.1%

21.3%

4.9%

Czech

Universal banks with market share below 5% will either take steps to achieve economies of scale or consider possible exit from certain markets

Consolidation

International banking group presence and market shares in the CE region


Czech Republic

16.8%

14.6%

Slovakia 20.7%

2.2%

18.9%

Slovenia 7.4%

5.8%

Croatia 14.2%

4.0%

18.4%

Serbia 4.2%

7.3%

2.4%

16.7%

Romania 16.3%

12.9%

2.2%

Bulgaria 6.4%

12.6%

Source: Raiffeisen CEE Banking Sector Report 2017 June, National Bank of Romania

10.9%

6.2%

3.6%

3.1%

7.5%

7.9%

5.9%

Universal banks with market share below 5% will either take steps to achieve economies of scale or consider possible exit from certain markets

International banking group presence and market shares in the CE region

1

2

3

17.7%

10.3%

5.3%

10.5%

7.3%

15.6%

6.6%

26.6%

8.0%

10.0%

8.0%

8.3%

8.5%

7.4%

20.2%

6.9%


Deleveraging1

Consolidation2


Digital - Fintech3

Consolidation2


World Economic Forum in collaboration with Deloitte have prepared a represents the culmination of three phases of research into of Fintechs on the financial services ecosystem

Digital - Fintech

over 150 experts involved10 workshops

with over 300 participants

Gained oversight, guidance and thought leadership from C-suite executives, operating unit leaders of global financial institutions, and industry regulators

Industry leaders


10 months

10 months of research


Facilitated 10 multistakeholder workshops at six financial hubs with over 300 total participants

Global workshops

World Economic Forum in collaboration with Deloitte have prepared a report that represents the culmination of three phases of research into the transformative role

1

2

3

150 10 workshops


Held in-person phone interviews with over 100 innovative new entrants and subject matter experts

Innovators

10 months of research

300

workshops at six financial hubs with over 300 total participants

Fintechs have changed how financial services are structured, provisioned but have not successfully established themselves as dominant players

Digital - Fintech

Defining the direction, shape and pace of innovation across almost every subsector of financial services

Where Fintechs succeeded

Fintechs have reshaped customer expectations, setting new and higher bars


Source: Beyond FinTech: A Pragmatic Assessment of Disruptive Potential in Financial Services

Conclusion

Fintechs have materially changed the basis of competition in financial services, but have not yet materially changed the competitive landscape

expectations, setting new and higher bars for user experience

have changed how financial services are structured, provisioned and consumed, but have not successfully established themselves as dominant players

Where Fintechs have fallen short

To create new infrastructure and establish new financial services ecosystems

Customer willingness to switch away fromincumbents has been overestimated

1

2

3

financial services ecosystems

: A Pragmatic Assessment of Disruptive Potential in Financial Services – World Economic Forum Report

have materially changed the basis of competition in financial services, but have not yet

Digital transformation and disruptive technologies have started to appear in every segment of banking operations with 8 key trends

Digital - Fintech



Digital transformation and disruptive technologies have started to appear in every segment of banking operations with 8 key trends

1

2

3


Differentiation of offering. The automation and outsourcing of middle and back offices is commoditizing financial services value propositions, leading firms to create new grounds for differentiation.

Digital – Fintech | Cost commoditization

Mutualization Externalization



Example: The Monetary Authority of Singapore is working with several banks to build a national Know Your Customer (KYC) utility, which will reduce duplication and lower costs for all financial institutions

Example: BlackRock’s Aladdin platform provides risk analysis, portfolio construction and compliance tools for institutional investors and retail wealth managers. The platform provides technology and support for industry standard

Differentiation of offering. The automation and outsourcing of middle and back offices is commoditizing financial services value propositions, leading firms to create new grounds

Cost commoditization1

2

3

Externalization Automation


BlackRock’s Aladdin platform provides risk analysis, portfolio construction and compliance tools for institutional investors and retail wealth managers. The platform provides technology and support for industry standard processes

Example: Automation Anywhere is working with a wide range of banks to automate processes such as loan origination, audit compliance and account reconciliation

New value chain pressures. Up-and-coming technologies will encourage both incumbents and fintechs to bypass traditional value chains, creating vigorous competition for both adjacent and new areas of

Digital – Fintech | Profit redistribution

Intra-Value Chain Disruption Inter-Value Chain Shifts



Example: Munich Re, a large reinsurer, is partnering with product start-ups—including Bought By Many and Trōv—to directly compete with their traditional insurance partners

Example: Investment firms such as Vanguard and Betterment have started proposing traded funds (ETFs) as an alternative to savings accounts, shifting customers from bank deposits

coming technologies will encourage both to bypass traditional value chains, creating vigorous

competition for both adjacent and new areas of profit

1

2

3

Value Chain Shifts Technological Value Bridge


Investment firms such as Vanguard and Betterment have started proposing exchange-

funds (ETFs) as an alternative to savings accounts, shifting customers from bank

Example: Stripe offers online merchants an easy and cost-effective way to process payments online, which was previously only accessible to large merchants with merchant bank accounts

Distributors or manufacturers. Market participants may have to choose between focusing on product distribution or product manufacturing, which will affect their business and customer interaction models as well as their competitive landscape.

Digital – Fintech | Experience ownership

Brand Opportunity Product Curation



Example: Customers of robo-advisors such as Wealthfrontpurchase ETFs from a wide range of companies, but likely have limited awareness of the assets in their portfolio

Example: The Apple App Store allows almost all apps that pass a set of rules, but stringently controls the front page for visibility, with over 1,600 apps launched per day

Distributors or manufacturers. Market participants may have to choose between focusing on product distribution or product manufacturing, which will affect their business and customer interaction models as well as their competitive landscape.

Experience ownership1

2

3

Product Curation Control of Data


Example: The Apple App Store allows almost all apps that pass a set of rules, but stringently controls the front page – crucial for visibility, with over 1,600 apps

day

Example: A large credit card company offers retailers advisory services with benchmarks and recommendations, drawn from its visibility into data collected from comparable retailers

Effective data usage. Data streams will be more valuable where they are granular (e.g., product-level data) and multidimensional (e.g., location data), making data cooperation and partnerships critical to successful monetization.

Digital – Fintech | Data monetization

Flows vs Snapshots Experience-



Example: A large credit card company collects location data from its customers on an ongoing basis (using customers’ phones) instead of on a snapshot basis (via transactions) in order to better detect fraudulent transactions

Example: Facebook continually improves and adds features to its mobile app to increase customer engagement and collect more data points

Effective data usage. Data streams will be more valuable where they are granular level data) and multidimensional (e.g., location data), making data

cooperation and partnerships critical to successful monetization.

1

2

3

-Driven Data Partnerships for Data


Facebook continually improves and adds features to its mobile app to increase customer engagement and collect more data

Example: AIB is partnering with retailers to offer cashbacks to customers; in return, retailers receive customer data, which they can use to provide targeted offers

Fewer, bigger winners. Platforms will offer customers far more choice around what they’re buying, significantly increasing the advantage for the best products, which are not unconstrained by their current reach.

Digital – Fintech | Platforms rising

B2C Product Distribution Platforms Segment Platforms



Example: Tencent’s Webankplatform acts as a storefront, allowing retail customers to purchase products from multiple competing vendors of credit and asset management services

Example: Wave’s accounting, invoicing and reporting platform for small businesses offers key financial services such as payments or lending directly, as well as through partners like ADP and RBC

Fewer, bigger winners. Platforms will offer customers far more choice around what they’re buying, significantly increasing the advantage for the best products, which are not

1

2

3

Segment Platforms Data Aggregation Platforms


Wave’s accounting, invoicing and reporting platform for small businesses offers key financial services such as payments or lending directly, as well as through partners like ADP

Example: The United Kingdom is developing a “pensions dashboard”, aggregating information from insurers and asset managers to allow customers to view and manage all their savings in one location

Ecosystem imperatives. Financial institutions will forge more partnerships with one another as well as with fintech and technology companies, developing a proficiency along the way for establishing “win-win,” symbiotic relationships.

Digital – Fintech | Systemically important techs

Infrastructure Platforms and Data



Example: Amazon Web Services (AWS) is forming the backbone of the financial services ecosystem, with a diverse set of firms – from JP Morgan to start-ups such as Xignite – adopting AWS for data storage and processing

Example: JP Morgan is investing in the collection and analysis of its customers’ data with a new customer management and analytics tool, enabling crossselling – "a little bit like how Amazon suggests what you might like to buy next ”

Ecosystem imperatives. Financial institutions will forge more partnerships with one and technology companies, developing a proficiency along

relationships.

Systemically important techs1

2

3

Platforms and Data Digital Experience


Example: JP Morgan is investing in the collection and analysis of its customers’ data with a new customer management and analytics tool, enabling cross-

"a little bit like how Amazon suggests what you might like to buy next ”2

Example: Macquarie Bank is using Uber and Google as guides for its digital experience: “You as a customer should be interacting with a bank in the same way you interact with the rest of your life”3

Reoriented expectations. AI will remove friction from frontsending people into roles that emphasize innovation, engagement, and emotional intelligence.

Digital – Fintech | Bionic workforce

Front-End AI Coworking



Example: Bank of America is launching Erica, a chatbot, in order to engage with customers and offer answers in the mould of Apple’s Siri or Amazon’s Alexa

Example: Ayasdi worked with a major bank to improve its stress testing, from a nineprocess requiring hundreds of employees to a threeprocess using less than 100 specialists

Reoriented expectations. AI will remove friction from front- and back-office processes, sending people into roles that emphasize innovation, engagement, and emotional

1

2

3

Coworking with AI Suite of Capabilities


Ayasdi worked with a major bank to improve its stress testing, from a nine-month process requiring hundreds of employees to a three-month process using less than 100

Example: While this idea has yet to be tested, academia is gradually accepting the need to manage AI similarly to humans

Regulatory uncertainty. Financial institutions will have to develop an ability to swiftly adapt to large-scale regulatory changes as well as to regionally disparate regulatory treatment of emerging market infrastructure technologies.

Digital – Fintech | Financial regionalization

Europe China



Example: The European Markets in Financial Services Directive is designed to introduce more transparency to capital markets; trade execution firms must show clear evidence of "best execution"

Example: In the absence of a mature payments system, the Alipay mobile payment app now owns over 50% of the $5.5 trillion Chinese mobile payments sector, with tech giant Tencentmajor competitor

Regulatory uncertainty. Financial institutions will have to develop an ability to swiftly adapt scale regulatory changes as well as to regionally disparate regulatory treatment

Financial regionalization1

2

3

China USA


In the absence of a mature payments system, the

mobile payment app now owns over 50% of the $5.5 trillion Chinese mobile payments sector,

Tencent as its only major competitor

Example: The Automated Clearing House (ACH) Network is moving to same-day payments, but progress remains slow compared to other countries (such as the United Kingdom, which adopted real-time payments over a decade ago)

Based on the Digital Maturity Survey of Deloitte, banks in the CE region are behind their global and Western European competitors in terms of digital transformation and application of disruptive technologies

Digital - Fintech

Hungarian Banks involved

% of TOP 5 Banks in given country offering digital sales*

Poland

Slovakia

Overdraft

40%

60%


Notes: *Including sales through digital channels which require signature on documents delivered by courier.

Czech Republic

Romania

Bulgaria

Croatia

Hungary

Slovenia

40%

40%

40%

60%

60%

20%

Based on the Digital Maturity Survey of Deloitte, banks in the CE region are behind their global and Western European competitors in terms of digital transformation and

1

2

3

% of TOP 5 Banks in given country offering digital sales*

verdraft Cash loan Credit card Overdraft Cash loan Credit cardInternet channel Mobile channel

60%

100% 100% 40% 20%

20%

20%

*Including sales through digital channels which require signature on documents delivered by courier.

40%

40%

40% 40% 40%

40%

60%

60%

60%

20%

20%

40%

20%

20% 20%

20%

20%

20%


Balázs Bíró

Partner, Deloitte Hungary

Email: [email protected]

Thank you for your attention!attention!

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These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Deloitte Hungary and are intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and are not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s).

Accordingly, the information in these materials is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, investment, consulting, orother professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that might affect your personal finances or

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