mixed crop-livestock systems: indispensable means to achieving global food and nutritional security
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the ADSA (American Dairy Science Association)-ASAS (American Society of Animal Science)-CSAS (Canadian Society of Animal Science) Joint Annual Meeting on Linking Animal Science and Animal Agriculture: Meeting the global demands of 2050, Kansas City, Missouri, 20–24 July 2014TRANSCRIPT
Mixed crop-livestock systems: Indispensable means to achieving global food and nutritional security
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
Linking animal science and animal agriculture: Meeti ng the global demands of 2050
ADSA-ASAS-CSAS Joint Annual Meeti ngKansas City, Missouri, 20–24 July 2014
Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food, will continue to soar in developing countries
2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production systems of developing countries play huge (often unnoticed) roles in global food supplies
3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestock farming systems present enormous (largely untapped) opportunities to increase global food security, to promote equitable economic growth and to protect our environment and human health
Unprecedented demand for food,especially animal-source food,
will continue to soar in developing countries
Key message 1
Unprecedented demand for food,especially animal-source food,
will continue to soar in developing countries
Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
1980 1990 2002 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
developingdeveloped
Mill
ion
met
ric t
onne
s
FAO 2006
Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2014(values for 2012)
Cow milk
Rice, paddy
Indig. Cattle
meat
Indig. Pig meat
Indig. Chicken meat
wheat
soybeans
tomatoes
sugar caneeggs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Net
pro
ducti
on v
alue
(Int
$) b
illio
n
Pro
du
ctio
n (
MT
) m
illio
ns
Cow milk has overtaken rice
Eggs havedisplacedmaize
FAO 2012Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030
Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030
Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities
developed developing SSA SA
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy
% c
hang
e 20
05/0
7 to
205
0
309%
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
Note that in South Asia, demand for meat is predicted to rise by 309%.
The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestockproduction systems of developing countries
play huge (often unnoticed)roles in global food supplies
Key message 2
Most food of the world is producedon small mixed crop-and-livestock farms
Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplya large proportionof cereal and livestock products
Herrero et al. 2009
Various sources:BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate production in many countries
Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken (meat)
Small ruminant
(meat)
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals)
60-90
Bangladesh (< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India (< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam (small scale)
80
Philippines (backyard)
50 35
Small-scale mixed crop-livestockfarmers are (surprisingly) competitive
East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same
levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
These mixed farming systemsproduce much of our meat and milk
• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% mixed temperate– Latin America: 48% mixed humid– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-
livestock farms, regardless of region– The big increases in milk production
to 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East
Sources and sales of animal products
• 90% of animal products are produced and consumedin the same country or region
• Most are produced by smallholders
• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’
• 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing World’s food. 43% of the workforce are women
Soil fertility: 23% of nitrogen for crop productionin crop-livestock systems comes from manure
Animal traction remains essential forcrop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa
7 million oxen are the main source of powerfor tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands
Key message 3
On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestockfarming systemspresent enormous(largely untapped)opportunities to:
• increase food security• promote equitable
economic growth and• protect our environment
and human health
Criteria for a transformed livestock sector
• The environment– Increased production through productivity
gains– Production is more efficient
• The climate– Adverse impacts on climate are mitigated– Production adapts to changing climates
• Public health– Consumption patterns are balanced– Milk, meat, eggs are safe to consume– Zoonotic diseases are controlled
• Equitable, inclusive growth– Women benefit– Smallholders benefit
Strong growth in developing-countrycrop-livestock systems presents opportunities
• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, it’s expected that:﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods﹣One-third may or may not remain part of
the transformation of the livestock sector﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented
livestock livelihoods
• The transitions, including consolidation, in smallholder crop-livestock systems that will take place in coming decades present opportunities to increase food production and simultaneously promote positive environment, equity and health benefits
Equitable, inclusive growth: opportunities for women
Targeting opportunities for women means taking account of:• Male-headed households have
larger livestock holdings than women-headed households
• Women are more likely to own small stock (poultry, sheep, goats)
• Women use livestock differently – more likely than men to use livestock assets to respond to crises
• Important role for women in milking and milk processing
Trajectories of growth for the livestock sectorStrong growthIntensifying, increasingly market oriented, often transformational
Fragile growthRemoteness, marginal lands, harsh climates restrict intensification
High growthwith externalitiesIntensified livestock systems with challenges
Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response
− Multiple endemic diseases− Zoonoses− Adaptive capacity− Movement controls
Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience
‘High growth with externalities’
Mostly monogastric− China for all commodities
− Environmental - Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares
Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities
Food, equity,environment, health
MarketsInstitutions
Policies
Animal health★Vaccines★Diagnostics
★Delivery systems
Markets & institutions★New business arrangements
★Good access to markets
Health & nutrition★Risk- not rule-based regulations
★Controlled zoonoses★Balanced diets
Environment★High feed efficiency★Wide use of crop
residues
Feed★Viable feed markets
★Improved feeds/feed strategies★Judicious biomass use
Genetics★Improved local
breeds★Breeds well-matched
to environments
Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food, will continue to soar in developing countries
2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production systems of developing countries play huge (often unnoticed) roles in global food supplies
3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestock farming systems present enormous (largely untapped) opportunities to increase global food security, to promote equitable economic growth and to protect our environment and human health
Thank youThank youThank you
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