Modeling Advanced Optical Broadband ArchitecturesModeling Advanced Optical Broadband Architectures

Rajeev J. RamDirector

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

http://cips.mit.edu

Model DevelopmentThomas Rand-Nash

Dr. Richard RothProf. Randy Kirchain

Working Group ChairDr. Fred Leonberger

MIT Center for MIT Center for eeBusinessBusiness Annual SponsorsAnnual Sponsors’’ Conference Conference and CIO Symposiumand CIO SymposiumJune 20 June 20 –– 21, 200621, 2006

Optical Broadband Working GroupOptical Broadband Working Group

Goal of Working GroupDevelop a roadmap for the co-evolution of FTTX architectures and components

Working Group Members:

Additional Participants:

FTTX Deployment StatusFTTX Deployment Status

FTTX (RHK, NTT, Corning)

FTTH Services TodayFTTH Services Today

Japan Target: 30M subscribers (10 Mb/s), 10M subs (100 Mb/s-FTTH)Korea Target: 100Mb/s to 5M subscribers by 2007 and 10M by 2015

Operating Cost as a DriverOperating Cost as a Driver

• Wireline is core to RBOC driving 65% revenues and 80% cash flow.

• This business is under threat by CATV operator. Triple play and IP convergence will accelerate eroding earnings and customer base.

• Wireless will not be sufficient to maintain overall EPS to historic levels as required by investors

• RBOCs must improve wireline cost efficiency and service competitiveness.

May 2004

RBOC Cost Structure (2003)

Operating Cost as a DriverOperating Cost as a Driver

Projected

FTTH ArchitecturesFTTH Architectures

FTTH Full BuildSmall Businesses

New BuriedDevelopment

Splitter

OLT

ONTONT

Splitter

ONT

ONTONT

Splitter

ONT

ONT

Splitter

ONT

ONT

CopperFeeder

CircuitSwitch

Small Businesses

Office Parks

Residential CopperDistribution

|X|SAI

FTTH Overlay

ONTONT

ONT

ONT

SplitterHub

Power &Battery

ONTONT

Video

Data

POTS

FTTH Services TodayFTTH Services Today

Services Bandwidth (down) Bandwidth (up)

Streaming Video (HD)Live TV

VoD EoD/GoD 20M/service

10Mb/s (P-to-P)

2 ~ 20 (HD) Mb/s

1Mb/s

33 ~ 53Mb/s

Internet 10Mb/s

Video conference or VoIP 2 ~ 20 (HD) Mb/s

Total Bandwidth 73 ~ 91 Mb/s

Remote sensing/control 1Mb/s

Total 60Mb/s20M/service20M/service20M/service

TodayToday’’s Advanced PONs Advanced PONGPON OverviewGPON Overview

2.4 Gbps shared by up to 128 users

2.4 Gbps out1.2 Gbps in

10-100 Mbps service rates

The Case for Gigabit to the HomeThe Case for Gigabit to the Home

Historical trends suggest 1.3x increase in service rates

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.00E+07

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

kbit/

s 18 M ADSL2plus20 M VDSL2 Cab

100 M VDSL2 DP

1 GBE10 GBE

G-PON

WDM/PONWDM/PON

10 G-PON

8M ADSL

56k modem

Source: “Next generation Broadband in Europe: The Need for Speed”Heavy Reading Report, Vol. 3 No 5 March 2005See Notes

Bit Rate

10G

1G

100M

10M

1M

100k

10k

1k

Advanced TelevisionAdvanced TelevisionUltrahigh Definition VideoHigh Fidelity HDTV

•HDTV: 1.5Gbps signals compressed to 20Mbps

•UHDV: 24Gbps compressed to 250Mbps

Motion artifacts in moving objects (blockiness of #39)

4000p

1/750, 1/180 and 1/45 s

Advanced PhotographyAdvanced Photography

NYTimes: 10 & 25-Megapixel Cameras

PeerPeer--toto--PeerPeerPeer-to-peer communication continues to exhaust current networks– Symmetric load– Account for 50-70% of all Internet traffic- File sharing shift from MP-3s (3-5 Mb) to DVDs (700Mb)

Online Internet games account for 10% Internet traffic in 2003– Gaming will be >30% of US Internet traffic by 2008– 90% of Internet users in Korea play games– Revenues > $4 Bn by 2008– Typically well-educated adults

Does Hardware Matter ?Does Hardware Matter ?

Cellular Telephony Satellite Telephony

Both wireless phones……but with critical differences:

•Size and weight of user equipment•Incremental build and upgrade•Operating cost

Next Generation FTTX NetworksNext Generation FTTX Networks

Metro Edge

Optical Access Network

WDM-PON

GPON

LR-PON

Metro Core

•WDM PON: Gigabit service rates with more expensive distribution plant•Long Reach PON: Statistically Gigabit service rate with more expensive CPE

and lower network operating costs

Overview of CIPS FTTX ModelsOverview of CIPS FTTX Models

Model DevelopmentModel Development

Develop models for generic network (statistically generated from user demographics) However, deterministic customer data can be input at any stage

Network dimensioning tool that accesses component database to layout CapEx minimized network

OpEx modeling tool that overlays maintenance (dig-up, etc) events on geography of network

Model InputsModel Inputs

Survey of component and module costs from working group members

Data on OpEx models for HFC networks (Motorola) and municipal FTTH (Corning)

• Variables to consider

• Auto-detect and configuration of network elements

• Resource contention cost (cost of failing to provide QoS)

• Optical fiber fault handling cost

• Network interconnection cost (backhaul, etc)

• Power supply cost

• Realization of OpEx savings requires deactivating copper infrastructure

• Metrics# of people to run/maintain a network (staff per customer)# of customer affecting failures per km of route length

• Data Required- Dig-up rates per km of route length- FIT rates for components/modules- Costs for truck rolls and maintenance

Architectural Architectural OpExOpEx ConsiderationsConsiderations

Analytical ChallengesAnalytical Challenges

• Design model– Maps demand demographics, technological performance to

network hardware design• Cost Model

– Maps network design to installed cost

DesignModel

NetworkDesign

Demand Demographics

TechnologicalCharacteristics

OperatingContext

NetworkCosts

CostModel

Factor Costs

Modeling Approach: Design Model InputsModeling Approach: Design Model InputsOperating Context

– Geographic region of coverage– Regional network connection

locations– Allowable technology operating

capacity

Customer Demand Demographics– Location– Customer density– Data requirements by service

tiers

Technological Characteristics–Max Downstream data transfer rate

–Max Split ratio–Power budget–Multiplexing strategy–Buried/Aerial fiber population-density threshold

DesignModel

NetworkDesign

Demand Demographics

TechnologicalCharacteristics

OperatingContext

NetworkCosts

CostModel

Factor Costs

Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Characterizing Backhaul and Demographic DistributionCharacterizing Backhaul and Demographic Distribution

• Model Inputs:– Geographic region

specified– Existing backhaul

locations cited • Data manipulation for

citing algorithms– Search grid overlaid for

citing CO’s– Demographic

distributions determine location density per grid 0

2

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

km

LocationBackhau

Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Central Office CitingCentral Office Citing

• Initial CO cited at densest grid point– Total reach set by

• Power budget• Max allowed

design capacity• Additional CO’s

cited according to same algorithm, in order of decreasing grid density

0

2

4

6

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

km

LocationBackhauCO 1

CO 1

Max Range

Splitter Citing: Graphic RepresentationSplitter Citing: Graphic Representation

Splitter 1

Neighborhood 1

CO 1

Modeling Approach: Hardware PopulationModeling Approach: Hardware Population

• ONT:– Data transfer rate– Number of customers– Receiver sensitivity

• Splitter:– Cost per port – Splicing costs

• OLT:– Data transfer rate– Tx power

• Fiber:– Installation requirements

• Aerial• Buried

– Max data rate

DesignModel

NetworkDesign

Demand Demographics

TechnologicalCharacteristics

OperatingContext

NetworkCosts

CostModel

Factor Costs

Virtual network populated with hardware based on component-specific performance requirements:

Modeling Approach: Cost ModelModeling Approach: Cost Model

• Component specifications determine unit costs

• Physical layout determines– Total fiber distance – Number of components– Number of facilities

• Capital Costs assigned – Material cost per fiber km – Aerial vs. Buried

installation costs – Total component costs

DesignModel

NetworkDesign

Demand Demographics

TechnologicalCharacteristics

OperatingContext

NetworkCosts

CostModel

Factor Costs

Preliminary Preliminary OpExOpEx Model FrameworkModel Framework

• Operations model– Maps characteristics of physical plant and technological reliability to the

number of operational events and the resources required to satisfy those events

• Cost Model– Maps operations characteristics to cost

NetworkCharacteristicsHardware Type

Hardware Location

TechnologicalReliability

NetworkCosts

Factor Costs

OperationsModel

OperationsResources

LaborRepair

Replacement

CostModel

Operational ConsiderationsOperational Considerations

• Central Offices Operations– Labor– Energy– Other

• Network Hardware: ONT, OLT, Splitters– Maintenance: Event frequency and Event cost– Repair : Event frequency and Event cost– Replacement : Event frequency and Event cost

• Fiber Plant: Aerial and Buried– Frequency of repair– Cost of repair

Future WorkFuture WorkData Collection and Model Validation