minnesota natural gas 2011-2012 winter outlookmn.gov/puc/documents/pdf_files/013560.pdf2011-2012...
TRANSCRIPT
Minnesota Natural Gas 2011-2012 Winter Outlook
November 10, 2011
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
• Agenda
– Prices
• Bruce Coogler, Division Vice President—Gas Supply, CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp.
– Supply and Demand
• Shawn Gillespie, Manager, Gas Supply, Minnesota Energy Resources Corp.
– Shale gas supplies and impacts
• Tim Carter, Director, Gas Supply, Xcel Energy
– Individual LDC portfolios
2
Natural Gas Pricing
• Drivers for higher prices: Supply
Production losses from hurricane damage or freeze-offs
Low winter storage inventories
Demand Increased usage for fuel switching/emissions control
Economic recovery
Weather – Cold winter
– Hot summer
3
Natural Gas Pricing
• Drivers for lower prices:
Supply
Increased shale production
Adequate storage inventories
Demand
Greater energy efficiency
Economic down-turn
Weather – Warm winter
– Cool summer
4
Natural Gas Pricing
• Other factors influencing price
Pricing of crude oil & other energy sources (fuel switching)
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Value of the dollar (global commodity)
Speculators trading in market (i.e., Natural Gas Fund, derivatives, etc.)
World unrest
5
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
6
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
7
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
8
EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook
• EIA expects higher fuel bills this winter heating season for heating oil, propane and natural gas
• Little change in electricity bills
• Higher fuel prices are main driver
– 10% higher heating oil prices (than last winter)
– 7% higher propane prices
– 4 % higher residential natural gas prices (National Average)
• 1% higher for Midwest Region
– 1% higher electricity prices
• Projected average expenditures for heating oil user are at highest level ever
Source: http://www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/special/2011_winter_fuels.pdf
9
Regional Dynamics
10
Regional Price Reference
Ventura
2008-09
Ventura
2009-10
Ventura
2010-11
Ventura
2011-12*
% Change from
2010-11
November $6.08 $4.81 $3.51 $3.78 8%
December $6.68 $4.92 $4.47 $4.04 -10%
January $6.17 $6.19 $4.25 $4.17 -2%
Febuary $4.86 $5.86 $4.50 $4.18 -7%
March $3.96 $5.00 $3.88 $4.08 5%
Average $5.55 $5.36 $4.12 $4.05 -2%
11
* October 24, 2011 NYMEX and Basis
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
• Supply and Demand—Where are we headed in the medium to long-term?
12
US Rigs vs. Henry Hub vs. Daily Production
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
Bcfd & $US/MMBtuRigs
US Production
US Rig Counts
Henry Hub LDS
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Baker Hughes
65.83
874 Rigs
$4.370
13
Growth of Daily Natural Gas Demand Short Term
14
Makeup of Annual U.S. Gas Supply Source: Energy Information Administration – Table 13
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tc
f
LNG
Imports
Wellhead/Drilling
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/aeotab_13.pdf 15
Makeup of U.S. Annual Natural Gas Demand Source: Energy Information Administration – Table 13
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
27.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tcf
Other
Power
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/aeotab_13.pdf
16
U.S Annual Natural Gas Supply/Demand Correlation
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tc
f
Supply Demand
17 Source: derived from data on http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/aeotab_13.pdf
Shale Gas
• What is the impact on supplies?
• What uncertainties exist today?
– Production Cost
– Environmental
– Infrastructure impacts
– Regulatory policy
18
Page 19
Natural Gas Market Game Changer
Unconventional Natural Gas Supply: Shale Gas
Source : http://www.capp.ca/canadaIndustry/naturalGas/ShaleGas/Pages/default.aspx (August 11, 2011)
Composition of Annual Gas Supplies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
bc
fd
Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Horn River Montney Duvernay
Source: Wood Mackenzie LTV April 2011
North American Shale Gas Production
20
Shale Gas Uncertainties Competitive Breakeven Cost
Wood Mackenzie April 2011
Update 8/10/11
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
bcfd
2010 $
/mm
btu
2011
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Fayetteville
Barnett Haynesville
Pinedale
tight gas
Lower
Bossier
tight gas
Cotton Valley
tight gas
U.S. Lower-48 Development Breakeven Costs @10% IRR
21
Shale Gas Uncertainties
• Environmental—water acquisition, contamination, and disposal; access to and emissions from production sites
• Infrastructure
– Changing flows on interstate pipelines leading to rate impacts
– Construction of new pipelines
– LNG Import/Export facilities
• Federal & State Regulatory Policy
22
2011-2012 Winter Outlook
• Individual Company Portfolios
– Xcel Energy (NSP)
– CenterPoint Energy (CPE)
– Minnesota Energy Resources (MERC)
23
NSP Winter 2011-2012 Supply Portfolio
• Winter Pricing
– 50% Hedged • 25% Financial
• 25% Storage
– 50% Market • Monthly Index
• Daily Spot
24
25%
32%
12%
31%
Design Day Supply 785,892 Dth/day
Base Storage Spot LNG/LPG
CPE Winter 2011-2012 Supply Portfolio
• Winter Pricing
– 41% Hedged • 21% Financial
• 20% Storage
– 59% Market • Monthly Index
• Daily Spot
25
46%
26%
14%
14%
Design Day Supply 1,218,000 Dth/day
Base Storage Spot LNG/LPG
MERC Winter 2011-2012 Supply Portfolio
• Winter Pricing
– 70% Hedged • 45% Financial
• 25% Storage
– 30% Market • Monthly Index
• Daily Spot
26
44%
37%
19%
0%
Design Day Supply 285,326 Dth/day
Base Storage Spot LNG/LPG
Questions and Discussion
27