michigan 13th congressional district democratic primary election polling study conducted exclusively...

7/31/2019 Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 Ne

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Foster McCollum White & Associates

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Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic

Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusivelyfor Fox 2 News

Automated Poll Methodology and Statistics

Key Findings Aggregate and Cross Tabular Report

July 21 and 22, 2012

Conducted by

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B


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Methodology- Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter

analytics consulting firmbased in Michigan and representing the combined resources ofFoster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (DearbornMichigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registeredand most likely August 2012 primary election voters in the 13

thcongressional district to

determine their voting and issue preferences on the Democratic Congressional nomination,

the impact of losing congressional representation from Detroit and the impact of losingAfrican American or minority congressional representation.

- This nine question automated poll survey was conducted on July 21 and July 22, 2012

- A list-based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters

that fit Michigan Presidential election patterns was used for this study. The majority of thesevoters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general electionand odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration.Additionally, our call f ile does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be

included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum participationrange.

- An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if theywere very likely to vote in the August Primary Election.

- Thirty-six thousand seven hundred and seventy-one (36,771) adults were called, and 643respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 1.77%.

- Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and politicalparticipation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, wewill focus our findings on the following issue-based categories:

A. Baseline for 13th congressional district Democratic primary nominationpreference.

B. Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city ofDetroit.

C. Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressionalrepresentation from Michigan.

- The margin of error for this polling sample is 3.84% with a confidence level of 95%. Ourpolling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Resultswithin the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.


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Key Findings Analysis

Our polling study reflects a strong likelihood for current Detroit congressman

John Conyers to retain his congressional seat. In doing that, he would maintainrepresentation from Detroit and Minority representation from Michigan. We ballot-tested

all five candidates for the Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary. Thewinner of the Democratic primary in southeastern Michigan Congressional campaignstraditionally wins the November general election, so the Democratic primary is

comparable to a general election contest. We found that Congressman Conyers has asignificant lead over all five candidates, who also are elected officials themselves.

Conyers leads State Senator Glenn Anderson 48.21% to 20.68%, a 27.53 point margin,with 22.24% of the respondents being undecided. The overall results for all fivecandidates are listed below:

The 2012 Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary election will be held

in August. Who are you most likely to vote for in the primary for US House ofRepresentatives?

(Current Democratic Congressman John Conyers): 48.21%(State Senator Glenn Anderson): 20.68%

(State Senator Bert Johnson): 2.33%(State Representative Shanelle Jackson): 4.51%(Westland School Board member John Goci): 2.02%

(Undecided): 22.24%


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Despite heavy anti-incumbent sentiment across the country and within Michigan,Congressman Conyers is benefiting from a wide cross section of support outside of histraditional Detroit voting base. The respondent base is broad across demographic

(50.39% African American and 49.61% non African American), union versus non unionhouseholds (45.24% Union households versus 54.29% non union households) and

geographical area (49.46% Detroit respondents and 50.54% other 11 represented citiesrespondents).

While Senator Glenn Anderson is the strongest challenger to Congressman Conyers,to win, he would have to erase a huge margin in a limited amount of time. Our data

findings do show two clear factors that are not hurting the top two contenders:

Wayne-Westland school board member John Goci isnt impacting SenatorAndersons support in the Western Wayne region and the other 11 cities in the13th Congressional district. Goci only has 2.02% voter support across the district.

State Representative Shanelle Jackson and State Senator Bert Johnson are notdividing the Detroit or African American voter base enough to defeat

Congressman Conyers or help their candidacies. Both candidates are onlyreceiving a combined 6.84% of support among respondents.

While Congressman Conyers voter support base is probably lower than expected forsomeone with his 48 years of electoral success, the findings suggest that the other

candidates have not yet been successful in communicating a compelling reason as to whyConyers needs to be replaced. This may be due to a deficiency in campaign messagingand voter analytics strategy.

Additionally, we tested the potential impact of losing Detroit-based and African

American/Minority representation in Congress and its importance in the consideration ofrespondents. We found that maintaining Detroit based and African American/minorityrepresentation is critically important to the voters across the 13 th Congressional district.

Seventy-two and fifty-nine hundredths percent (72.59%) of the respondents feel that it isimportant to maintain Detroit based representation in Congress while only 21.81% felt it

was an unimportant consideration. We also found that 70.72% of the respondents feelthat is important to maintain African American or Minority representation in Congress

while only 24.45% felt that is was an unimportant consideration.


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Beyond our aggregate data findings, we will highlight significant statistical findingsper category from our cross tabulation data. The defined cross tabs that we will bereporting on include:

Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliationEvangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical

Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations

Voter Political Party PreferenceDemocratic, Republican and Independent Union Household versus Non Union Household 13th Congressional District Geographical Voter Regions (Western Wayne,

Downriver, Near Detroit Suburbs, Detroit) Major 14 Wayne County Cities clusterNon Detroit Other 28 Wayne County Cities cluster Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of Detroit

question

Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressionalrepresentation from Michigan

FMWB deploys a pre-determined model for determining the scientific and statistical

importance of a tabular variance. We use a Bivariate Analysis model to evaluate ourtabular variance that is compared against the aggregate universe.

We believe these categories will provide a solid data roadmap for the analysis of the13th Congressional District election and the likelihood of retaining Congressman John

Conyers and Detroit-based African American representation in Congress.

A. Congressman John Conyers positive cross tabular results .Our findings reflect a broad range of support for Congressman Conyers across a

majority of the cross tabular groups. In assessing voter support for Congressman

Conyers, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identifypositive trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are constant with our

aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. CongressmanConyers positive voter tabular variances are as follows:


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Cross TabGrouping

JohnConyers

GlennAnderson

Undecided ShanelleJackson

BertJohnson

JohnGoci

Self identifiedMale

Respondents

43.04% 26.16% 22.36% 3.80% 2.11% 2.53%

Self identifiedFemale

Respondents

51.75% 17.50% 21.75% 5.00% 2.25% 1.75%

Ages 18 to 30 70.97% 6.45% 9.68% 9.68% 0% 3.23%

Ages 31-50 39.19% 22.97% 25.68% 8.11% 1.35% 2.70%

Ages 51 to 65 53.78% 19.33% 19.75% 3.36% 2.52% 1.26%

Ages 66 &

older

43.81% 22.74% 24.41% 4.01% 2.68% 2.34%

Democrats 55.11% 18.88% 17.92% 4.82% 2.31% 0.96%

Self identified

AfricanAmerican

Respondents

68.94% 4.04% 17.70% 5.28% 3.11% 0.62%

Self identifiedMulti RacialAmerican

Respondents

45.00% 5.00% 35.00% 7.50% 5.00% 2.50%

Self identifiedEvangelical

ChristianRespondents

50.00% 16.67% 25.00% 4.76% 2.38% 1.19%

Self identified

BaptistRespondents

62.28% 7.89% 19.30% 5.70% 3.95% 0.88%

Self identifiedNon-

EvangelicalChristian

Respondents

49.43% 20.69% 21.84% 3.45% 2.30% 2.30%

Self identifiedOther or Nonreligious

affiliationRespondents

41.48% 26.47% 27.94% 4.41% 0% 0%

Detroit region

Respondents

65.00% 1.88% 21.88% 7.81% 2.81% 0.63%


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DownriverRegion

Respondents

57.14% 0% 33.33% 4.76% 0% 4.76%

Self identifiedUnion

households

52.41% 21.38% 17.93% 4.83% 1.38% 2.07%

Self identifiedNon-Unionhouseholds

44.96% 20.17% 25.36% 4.32% 3.17% 2.02%

Maintaining

DetroitRepresentation

is importantRespondents

62.45% 12.02% 16.74% 5.58% 2.36% 0.86%

Maintaining

AfricanAmericanRepresentation

is importantRespondents

62.56% 11.98% 16.96% 5.51% 2.20% 0.88%

Other 28

Wayne CountyCitiesRespondents

43.55% 22.58% 26.61% 1.61% 4.03% 1.61%

Congressman Conyers strongest pockets of support are within the followinggroups:

Self identified voters ages 18 to 30 years old. Self identified Democratic voters. African American voters. Self identified Baptist voters. City of Detroit voters. Downriver communities (Melvindale, Ecorse & River Rogue) voters. Voters who feel it is important to maintain Detroit and African

American/Minority representation in Congress.

The data suggests that Representative Jackson and Senator Johnson have not

neither been able to either connect with voters that have been their base in pastelections nor communicated a clear message to sway these voter bases awayfrom Congressman Conyers. Many have noted that Congressman Conyers has

had challenges over the past few years (Monica Conyers, use of congressionalvehicle, ethics issues) and has not brought home federal investment in his district


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in ways that have improved the economics of the district or region. An additional

factor that could have posed a problem for the incumbent was the fact that thenon-Detroit African American community could react negatively to Detroitcongressional representation because of the challenges within the City of Detroit.

Despite these challenges, the data suggest that the areas of the electorate inwhich Conyers is over-performing may also be due to a lack of confidence in the

other candidates.

What is additionally surprising is the lack of impact that Senator Anderson is

having on the City of Detroit, Union households and the other 28 city clustergroup within the 13th Congressional district. Twenty and eleven hundredths

percent (20.11%) of the Detroits most likely voter population for theCongressional district primary is non African American and Anderson is only

receiving 1.88% of that vote. His campaign has missed a strong opportunity tocapitalize on the diversity of the electorate in the City of Detroit. Additionally,Senator Anderson is underperforming with union households. Congressman

Conyers is leading Senator Anderson among Union households by a margin of52.41% to 21.38%, or 31.03 percentage points. Anderson is a former activeUAW member, and support among union voters would be key to defeating

Conyers.

B. Senator Glenn Andersons positive cross tabular groupings:Our findings reflect some significant pockets of support for Senator Anderson within

the cross tabular groups. Our data also finds opportunities that Senator Anderson must

improve upon in order to increase his chances in the primary. In assessing voter supportfor Senator Anderson, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulation groups toidentify additional positive trending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups

are consistent with our aggregate universe, we identified a number of significantvariances. Andersons positive voter tabular variances are as follows:

Cross TabGrouping

JohnConyers

GlennAnderson

Undecided ShanelleJackson

BertJohnson

JohnGoci

Self identified

RepublicanRespondents

2.50% 32.50% 52.50% 2.50% 0.00% 10.00%

Self identifiedIndependents

Respondents

28.40% 25.93% 33.33% 3.70% 3.70% 4.94%

White Selfidentified

Respondents

22.22% 47.01% 23.50% 2.14% 1.28% 3.85%


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Self IdentifiedCatholic

Respondents

29.79% 41.13% 19.86% 2.84% 1.42% 4.96%

WesternWayne Region

Respondents

28.52% 43.64% 21.99% 1.03% 1.37% 3.44%

MaintainingDetroitRepresentation

is notimportant

Respondents

10.07% 46.04% 33.09% 1.44% 2.88% 6.47%

MaintainingAfricanAmerican

Representationis not

importantRespondents

13.46% 46.15% 29.49% 1.92% 3.21% 5.77%

Major 14

Wayne CountyCitiesRespondents

24.12% 49.75% 20.10% 1.01% 0.50% 4.52%

Senator Andersons strongest pockets of support are within the followinggroups:

Self identified Catholic voters. White American voters. Major 14 cities cluster (Westland, Redford & Dearborn Heights) voters. Western Wayne Region communities (Westland, Redford, Dearborn

Heights, Garden City, Inkster, Romulus & Wayne) voters.

Voters who feel it is not important to maintain Detroit and AfricanAmerican/Minority representation in Congress.

Despite Senator Andersons bases of support, the data suggests that he hasnt built astrong enough base to counter his deficiencies in Congressman Conyers larger voterbases. Senator Anderson has not achieved 50% in any of his favorable cross tabular

groupings while Congressman Conyers has achieved over 50% support in 12 of hisfavorable cross tabular groupings. If Senator Anderson is to be more competitive, heneeds to increase his margins in all of his favorable cross tabular groups and have a

higher percentage of Republican and Independent voters skip their primary and vote inthe Democratic primary. Republican self identified respondents were 6.25% of our


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respondent universe, but are projected to constitute 27.73% of the 11 non-Detroit

represented municipalities August primary votes. Senator Anderson must increase theinterest of those voters to skip their primary and vote in the Democratic contest.

C. Importance of maintaining Detroit based Congressional representationWe asked respondents for their feelings on the impact of redistricting and the

potential loss of an elected member of Congress from Detroit. The local, stateand national implications would be tremendous if the largest community in

Michigan and one of the 20 largest cities in America did not have an electedmember of Congress from its borders. Detroit has also been rocked with political

scandals, fiscal crisis and the need for State intervention in the operations of theCity government and the school system. We wanted to determine if voters in the

new 13th Congressional District felt that it would be important to keep electedcongressional representation from the City of Detroit. The following questionwas asked:

Question #2:

Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that the City of Detroit will not have aresident as a member of Congress for the first time in Michigan history. Is it important to

maintain elected congressional representation from the city of Detroit in the 13 thCongressional District?

(It is very important): 57.79%

(It is somewhat important): 14.80%Total maintaining Detroit representation is important 72.59%(It is somewhat unimportant): 11.21%

(It is very unimportant): 10.59%Total maintaining Detroit representation is unimportant 21.81%

(Undecided on importance): 4.83%(It does not matter): 0.78%


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In assessing the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of an electedmember of Congress from Detroit, we conducted a deeper analysis of our cross tabulationgroups to identify additional positive and negative trending factors. While most of our

cross tabulation groups are constant with our aggregate universe, we identified a numberof significant variances. The positive voter tabular variances are as follows:

Positive over performing It is important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping Maintaining Detroit

based representation inCongress IS important to

respondent

Maintaining Detroit based

representation in CongressIS NOT important to

respondent

Self identified DemocraticRespondents

80.31% 14.86%

Self identified AfricanAmerican Respondents

88.20% 8.39%

Self identified BaptistRespondents

83.77% 11.84%

Detroit regionRespondents

92.48% 4.70%

Maintaining African

American Representationis important

Respondents

90.53% 6.83%


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The negative voter tabular variances are as follows:

Negative underperforming it is important and over performing it is not important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping Maintaining Detroit basedrepresentation in CongressIS important to respondent

Maintaining Detroitbased representation inCongress IS NOT

important torespondent

Self identified Male

Respondents(Underperforming)

67.80% 27.12%

Respondents ages 66 yearsold and older

(Underperforming)

68.79% 23.15%

Republican Self IdentifiedRespondents (Over

performing)

20.00% 67.50%

Self identified IndependentRespondents

(Underperforming)

51.85% 41.98%

White AmericanRespondents

(Underperforming)

54.70% 37.61%

Self identified CatholicRespondents(Underperforming)

58.16% 35.46%

Western Wayne Region


51.20% 41.24%

Downriver Region


61.90% 23.81%

Maintaining African

American Representation isimportant respondents(Over performing)

30.57% 64.33%

Other 28 Cities cluster


64.00% 28.00%

Major 14 Cities cluster

Respondents

45.96% 45.45%


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D. Importance of maintaining African American or MinorityRepresentation in Congress

We asked respondents for their feelings regarding the impact of redistrictingand the potential loss of African American or minority elected representation to

Congress from Michigan. The local, state and national implications would betremendous if the most diverse County in Michigan and Americas largestAfrican American population as a percentage in a big city in America did not

have an elected member of Congress who was African American or a person ofcolor. We wanted to determine if voters in the new 13 th Congressional District

felt that it would be important to keep African American or minority electedrepresentation in Congress from Michigan. The following question was asked:

Question #3:

Due to redistricting in Michigan it is possible that Michigan will not have an AfricanAmerican or non-white Minority American as a member of the Michigan CongressionalDelegation for the first time since 1954. Is it important to maintain African American or

Minority representation from the 13th Congressional District?

(It is very important): 52.96%(It is somewhat important): 17.76%

Total maintaining Minority representation is important 70.72%(It is somewhat unimportant): 13.08%

(It is very unimportant): 11.37%Total maintaining Minority representation is unimportant 24.45%(Undecided on importance): 3.74%

(It does not matter): 1.09%


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In assessing the impact of redistricting and the potential loss of African Americanor minority elected representation to Congress from Michigan, we conducted a deeper

analysis of our cross tabulation groups to identify additional positive and negativetrending factors. While most of our cross tabulation groups are constant with our

aggregate universe, we identified a number of significant variances. The positive votertabular variances are as follows:

Positive over performing It is important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping Maintaining African Americanor Minority representation in

Congress IS important to

respondent

Maintaining African American orMinority representation in

Congress IS NOT important to

respondent

Self identifiedDemocratic

Respondents

78.57% 17.37%

Self identifiedAfrican American

Respondents

85.71% 10.56%

Self identified BaptistRespondents

82.89% 13.16%

Detroit region

Respondents

88.09% 8.78%

Maintaining DetroitRepresentation isimportant

Respondents

88.02% 10.30%


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The negative voter tabular variances are as follows:

Negative underperforming it is important and over performing it is not important tabular groupings

Cross Tab Grouping Maintaining African

American or Minorityrepresentation in

Congress IS important to

respondent

Maintaining African

American or Minorityrepresentation inCongress IS NOT

important to respondent

Self identified MaleRespondents

(Underperforming)

63.56% 31.36%

Republican Self IdentifiedRespondents (Overperforming)

20.00% 70.00%

Self identified IndependentRespondents(Underperforming)

48.15% 45.68%

White American


52.14% 43.16%

Self identified Catholic


56.03% 41.84%

Western Wayne Region


51.89% 42.27%

Downriver RegionRespondents

(Underperforming)

61.90% 28.57%

Maintaining DetroitRepresentation is

important Respondents

(Over performing)

22.14% 72.14%

Other 28 Cities clusterRespondents

(Underperforming)

64.80% 29.60%

Major 14 Cities clusterRespondents

46.46% 46.46%


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Data Summary

We believe that our findings have identified a picture of the 13th Congressional

district. Our data findings show Congressman John Conyers in a strong position to securere-election for his 25th term. If there is a hope for anyone to defeat Congressman Conyers,

it would be with State Senator Glenn Anderson. He is the only candidate that has astatistical opportunity to catch Congressman Conyers. It is a limited opportunity, but onethat could occur, depending on the strategies of Anderson and Conyers over the next two

weeks. For State Representative Shanelle Jackson, State Senator Bert Johnson andWayne-Westland School Board member John Goci, the data findings suggest that they

will not be able to be successful and are not in position to play the spoiler role for eitherof the two front runners.


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Data Analysis Statement

The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are

statistically significant with respect to Michigan Primary election cycle and the new 13 th Congressional District. Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can

be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy.

For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation

coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linearorproduct-momentcorrelation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the

two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent towhich values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of

correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurementunits used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of ageographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random

proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the groupsweight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linearrelationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category).

The aggregate 13th Congressional District sample size of 643 respondents has a

3.84% margin of error. Any review of the polling report can allow for the statisticalrelationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reportedclusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster

McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historicprimary election participation demographics throughout Wayne County and the new 13 th

Congressional district represented municipalities. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissionedon behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the

principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering andreporting of polling data.

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