michala marcussen, cheføkonom i société générale
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Præsentation på Vækstfondens årsmøde 2012 i Øksnehallen. Om verdensøkonomien og den europæiske gældskriseTRANSCRIPT
Michala Marcussen
Cheføkonom i Société Générale
Verdensøkonomien og den europæiske gældskrise
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
NEW PARADIGM
May 2012
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Michala Marcussen, CFA
Global Head of Economics
+44.20.7676.7813
3 May 2012
SLOWEST POST-WAR RECOVERY ON RECORD…
Source: DataStream, NBER, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Years
United States: GDP per capita, Cycle peak = 100
Average post-war cycle Current Peak=Q4.07 SGf
4 May 2012
… ACROSS THE ADVANCED ECONOMIES
Source: DataStream, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115U
nite
d
Sta
tes
Ja
pa
n
Unite
d
Kin
gd
om
De
nm
ark
Euro
are
a
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Italy
Sp
ain
Po
rtug
al
Gre
ece
Ire
land
GDP per capita, 2007=100
2011 2016
5 May 2012
STRUCTURAL SHIFT: TIME TO DELEVERAGE!
Source: OECD, IMF, Eurostat, European Commission, BIS, SG Cross Asset Research / Economics
*Ireland : 2002 vs 2011 **Austria : 1988 vs 2011 ***Canada : 1980 vs 2010 ****Australia : 1989 vs 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
1980 debt vs. 2011 debt
Non financial corpo 1980 Households 1980 General government 1980
Non financial corpo 2011 Households 2011 General government 2011
1980 2011
6 May 2012
STRUCTURAL SHIFT: NEW DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY
Asian consumers
Factors expected to act on supply Factors expected to act on demand
Output
Pri
ce
New Technologies
From
monetary policy
dominance
to
fiscal policy
dominance
EM deregulation
Urbanization
Ageing populations
Deleveraging
Higher cost of capital
Structural reform
7 May 2012
BACK TO CREDIT DRIVEN MARKETS
Source: DataStream, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
10Y Benchmark Bond Yield
Germany France Italy Spain
8 May 2012
EURO AREA: MAKING ALL THE WHEELS TURN THE RIGHT WAY
Debt Deleveraging
New European
House
Economic Growth
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
9 May 2012
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GDP impact of meeting Fiscal Compact
targets, %GDP
Adjustment to meet Fiscal Compact targets,
%GDP
EURO AREA: LARGE FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED …
… WITH A POTENTIALLY HIGH PRICE TAG ON GROWTH
Source: EU Commission, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
10 May 2012
EURO AREA: AMPLE ROOM FOR STRUCTURAL REFORM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Impact of aligning structural variables
to OECD average when above
After 1 year
After 3 years
After 5 years
After 10 years
Source: OECD, SG cross Asset Research/Economics
%GDP per capita
11 May 2012
EURO AREA: A NEW DEBATE ON INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
Structural funds
• 2007-13 : just under €350bn
EIB
• Proposal to raise capital by €10bn to raise lending capacity to €180bn
Project bonds
• Could amount to €1.5-2.0tn out to 2020
12 May 2012
EUROPE’S NEW HOUSE IS STILL A CONSTRUCTION SITE
CACs
in 2013
Europe
2020
ECB
3Y LTRO
EFSF (May
2010) & EFSM
ECB
SMP
ECB
1Y LTRO
Source: EU Commission, EFSF, EBA, SG Cross Asset Research / Economics
Europe is building a new framework based on three pillars; (1) economic governance and policy co-ordination, (2) crisis management and (3) financial stability. Dark red indicates
the facility is operational, light red soon to be finalised, white elements in very early stages but we expect will come (ultimately). Measures indicated black relate to ECB action.
ESFS
(started Jan. 2011)
CT1 of 9%
1st Greek programme - Bilateral
loans
European Semester (Started Jan. 2011)
Euro+ Pact (Mar. 2011)
National financial supervisors
Economic governance
and policy coordinationStability mechanisms Financial stability
ESM
(effective July 1, 2012)
E-bond ?November 2011, EU Commission published proposal on
Stability bonds.
EFSF
PRP & CIF (Oct. 2011)
"Six Pack"
(Effective Dec-13, 2011)
European bank
bail-out fund ?
Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance
(TSCG)
Europe's New House
13 May 2012
US: HOUSEHOLD DEBT DECLINING SLOWLY … MORE TO COME
Source: Global Insight, SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Household Debt, % of Disp. Income (LHS)
Debt Service, % of Disp. Pers. Income (RHS)
Decline in debt burden due to debt reduction
Decline in debt burden due to other factors (lower interest rates, lower taxes)
14 May 2012
US: FISCAL POLICY BECOMES A WILDCARD IN 2013
Source: CBO,SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Current law
Current policy
SG Baseline
Obama Budget
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Current law
Current policy
SG Baseline
Obama Budget
Deficit, % of GDP Debt, % of GDP
15 May 2012
CHINA’S DEBT ADDICTION
Source: CEIC, ADB, NAO, SG Cross Asset Research / Economics
China’s debt by sector A cross-country comparison
16 May 2012
CHINA: REBALANCING IS NOT A CHOICE
Source: World Bank, CEIC, IMF, SG Cross Asset Research / Economics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Investment, as % of GDP
China (T=2007)
Japan (T=1969)
Korea (T=1988)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
China (1985-2010)
Germany (1960-2010)
Japan (1960-2010)
Export share (% of world total)
17 May 2012
CONCLUSION: A DECADE OF WEAKER GROWTH, BUT NOT WITHOUT OPPORTUNITIES
Europe: Building a new house … it will take time!
• Privatisation
• Infrastructure
• New energy
US: A fiscal adjustment to
come
• Infrastructure
• New energy
China: from “producer” to “consumer”
• New consumers
• New energy
A structural shift in the global economy: It’s time to deleverage
18 May 2012
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