meteorology 415 review of erie forecast sept 25, 2012
DESCRIPTION
Fall 2012. Meteorology 415 Review of ERIE forecast Sept 25, 2012. Location – Erie, PA. Erie Obs. KERI 251751Z 19014KT 10SM BKN100 19/07 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T01940067 10206 20111 58016= KERI 251851Z 20013G21KT 10SM BKN075 OVC100 20/08 A2997= - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fall 2012
Location – Erie, PA
Population101,807 (US: 275th) (2011)
- metro280,985 (US: 164th) (2011)
Density4,631.7 / sq mi (1,788 / km2)
Erie Obs KERI 251751Z 19014KT 10SM BKN100 19/07 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155
T01940067 10206 20111 58016= KERI 251851Z 20013G21KT 10SM BKN075 OVC100 20/08 A2997= KERI 251951Z 17014KT 10SM OVC047 18/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142
T01830078= KERI 252051Z 18011G18KT 10SM OVC055 18/07 A2994 RMK AO2
SLP140 T01780072 56016= KERI 252151Z 17011G18KT 10SM OVC065 18/08 A2994 RMK AO2
SLP140 T01780078= KERI 252251Z 17012KT 10SM OVC055 17/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142
T01720083= KERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2
SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003=
Erie - ObsKERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003=KERI 260051Z 20012G23KT 10SM SCT039 OVC050 16/11 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/0038 SLP145 T01610106=KERI 260137Z 18014G19KT 10SM BKN026 OVC033 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 P0000=KERI 260151Z 18012KT 10SM OVC024 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 SLP147 P0000 T01500117=KERI 260251Z 19014G20KT 10SM OVC018 15/12 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 60000 T01500117 51004=KERI 260351Z AUTO 19011G21KT 10SM OVC021 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122=KERI 260451Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM OVC017 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122 402060111=KERI 260537Z AUTO 20009KT 6SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2=KERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002=KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2=
Erie - ObsKERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002=KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2=KERI 260651Z AUTO 19010KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/13 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01500133 $=KERI 260732Z AUTO 19007KT 9SM FEW009 BKN015 OVC027 15/13 A2995 RMK AO2 $=KERI 260751Z AUTO 18009KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T01500139 $=KERI 260851Z AUTO 18008KT 6SM BR OVC026 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01560139 55007 $=KERI 260951Z AUTO 18007KT 7SM BKN017 OVC023 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01560139 $=KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $=KERI 261038Z 19007KT 3SM -RA BR FEW009 OVC015 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $=KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994=KERI 261048Z 18008KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0002 $=KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 SLP139 P0002 T01560139 $=KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 CIG 015 NE P0000 $=KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994=KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995=KERI 261151Z 19008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC018 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE01B35 SLP144 P0001 60003 70003 T01560144 10156 20144 53007 $=KERI 261158Z 18006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC016 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $=
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Model Guidance
More Model GuidanceEven the LAMP forecast loses skill after 8-10 hours ...
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Up close and personal
Lessons Learned
Erie is a breezy place…it is easy for the wind to gust >20kts – exposure is good
A steady, persistent wind from the south at night, when the PBL decouples, will lead to divergence along the south shoreline and dissipation of echoes as they approach.
A due south wind has a marginal amount of a downslope component and can impede dewpoint rises!
Erie Temperatures – 18z T1 < 50 0 T1 53 0 T1 56 0 T1 59 0 A T1 62 0 B T1 65 0 C T1 68 0 D T1 71 0 E T1 74 0 T1 77 0 T1 > 80 0 18z/25 0
Erie Temperatures – 00z T2 < 46 0 T2 49 0 T2 52 0 T2 55 0 A T2 58 0 B T2 61 0 C T2 64 0 D T2 67 0 E T2 70 0 T2 73 0 T2 > 76 0 00z/26 0
Erie Temperatures – 06z T3 < 45 0 T3 48 0 T3 51 0 T3 54 0 A T3 57 0 B T3 60 0 C T3 63 0 D T3 66 0 E T3 69 0 T3 72 0 T3 > 75 0 06z/26 0
Erie Temperatures – 12z T4 < 44 0 T4 47 0 T4 50 0 T4 53 0 A T4 56 0 B T4 59 0 C T4 62 0 D T4 65 0 E T4 68 0 T4 71 0 T4 > 74 0 12z/26 0
POP Category
Probability of Precip
POP1 – 18-0z
A.)0-20 B.) 21-40 C.) 41-60 D.) 61-80 E.) 81-100
POP Category
Probability of Precip
POP2 – 6-12z
A.)0-20 B.) 21-40 C.) 41-60 D.) 61-80 E.) 81-100
Amt Category
QPF
Precip Amount: 18z/25-12z/26
A.)None - Trace B.) .01-.10” C.) .11-.25” D.) .26-.50” E.) >.50”
% Time Category 0-12z/26
A.)0-20 B.) 21-40 C.) 41-60 D.) 61-80 E.) 81-100
Dewpoint at 00z/26 Td <38 0 Td 41 0 Td 44 0 Td 47 0 A Td 50 0 B Td 53 0 C Td 56 0 D Td 59 0 E Td 62 0 Td 65 0 Td >68 0 00z/26 0
Wind Direction at 00z/26 Wind Dir 361-030 0 Wind Dir 031-060 0 Wind Dir 061-090 0 Wind Dir 091-120 0 Wind Dir 121-150 0 A Wind Dir 151-180 0 B Wind Dir 181-210 0 C Wind Dir 211-240 0 D Wind Dir 241-270 0 E Wind Dir 271-300 0 Wind Dir 301-330 0 Wind Dir 331-360 0 Wind Dir VRBL 0 00z/26 0
Wind Speed at 00z/26 Wind Speed <5kt 0 A Wind Speed 5-10kt 0 B Wind Speed 11-15kt 0 C Wind Speed 16-20kt 0 D Wind Speed 21-25kt 0 E Wind Speed 26-30kt 0 Wind Speed 31-35kt 0 Wind Speed 36-40kt 0 Wind Speed 41-45kt 0 Wind Speed 46-50kt 0 Wind Speed >50kt 0 00z/26 0
Cloud Cover - Cloud Cover 18-0z/25-26
A.)0-20 B.) 21-40 C.) 41-60 D.) 61-80 E.) 81-100
Events Any Cb 0 Liquid >=0.35" 0 Vis <=3miles (4500m) 0 Vis <=5miles (7500m) 0 Thunderstorm 0 Lightning 0 Gusts >=20kts 0 Gusts >=25kts 0 Ceiling <=2,000ft 0 Ceiling <=1,000ft 0 Liquid >=0.15" 0 Temp >=70F (21C) 0 Vis <=1 mile (1500m) 0
Wx from 18z/25-12z/26
A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100
A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100
A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100
A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100