menus 2017: innovation in the · •breakfast foods strike comfort chord •appeals: convenience,...
TRANSCRIPT
Menus 2017: Innovation in the Age of Disruption
President
Nancy Kruse
The Kruse Company
Menus 2017: Innovation in the Age of Disruption
Menus 2017: Context
• Industry operating in extraordinary times
• Old rules replaced by new realities
• All food sectors being impacted
4
Consumer Disruption: Perfect Storm
Economy
Technology
World Order
Politics
Demographics
5
Economy: Recession Hangover
“Middle class accounts for less than half the population…”
•Real wage growth stagnation
+
•Implosion of housing market
Source: Pew Research Center
6
Technology: Employment Effect
“US Steel will permanently shutter blast furnace at Fairfield Works; 1,100 workers will lose jobs”
Source: Atlanta Journal & Constitution; Oct. 19, 2015
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World Order: Growing Instability
8
Politics: Outsiders vs. Insiders
9
Demographics: Generational Changeover
Millennials
• 80 MM; 18-34 years old
• Diverse, wired, activist
• Brand purpose
Baby Boomers
• 75MM; 52-70 years old
• #1 HH wealth; food spending
• Brand promise
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Insight2Impact: Attitudes, Appetites Disrupted
Menu R&D Disrupted, Too
Ingredients
Diets
Comfort
Dayparts
Ethnic
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Menu R&D Disrupted: 1. Ingredients
Demand for Clean/Free-From Foods Soaring;
52% of Consumers Want More Menu Transparency
% Agreement Perceived as Healthier
78% No artificial sweeteners
73 No antibiotics
60 No GMOs
Source: Technomic, Inc.
12
Panera Issues Manifesto, Announces No-No List
Fast-casual chains
drivers of trend
13
Major Chains Jumping on Bandwagon…
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…Supermarkets, CPGs Also Cleaning It Up
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Smaller Chains On Board, Too
Noodles & Company removes artificial ingredients
16
Shoney’s Switches To Cage-Free Eggs
Serves over 50 million
eggs per year
17
California Tortilla Offers GMO-Free Super Food Burritos
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Campus Dining Pioneer In Clean-Foods Initiatives
California State University,
Chico
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What’s Next? Watch for Simplicity
March 10, 2016: McDonald’s trademarks “the simpler the better”
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Denny’s Simplifies Pancake Recipe…
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…As Supermarket Brands Embrace Simple Life
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Ingredients Disrupted: Insight2Impact
• No one-size-fits-all solution
• Multiple influences on consumers
• Critical to stay in touch/stay on top
• Expect supply-chain disruption
• Monitor, consider simplification
23
Menu R&D Disrupted: 2. Dieting
77% consumers trying to eat more healthfully… …only 19% say they are on diet
Source: Fortune Magazine poll
24
Plants Take Over Plates
By Chloe’s
Quinoa Taco Salad, Pesto Meatballs
New York City, NY
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Superiority Burger’s Plant-Based Sandwiches
• Burgers
• Wraps
• Sloppy Joes
New York City, NY
26
Houlihan’s Thai “Noodle” Salad
Noodles made from zucchini
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Taco Bell’s Vegetarian-Certified Menu
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What’s Next? “Better” Sugar
Pepsi’s 1893 Craft Soda Line:
Certified Fair Trade Sugar
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Dieting Disrupted: Insight2Impact
• Emphasis on satisfaction, not deprivation
• Opportunity to romance vegetables
• Target audience: flexitarian diners
• Vegetarian demo remains small
• Behavior will remain inconsistent
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Menu R&D Disrupted: 3. Comfort
73% menus include word “fried”
Source: NRN, Food Genius
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Nashville Hot Burns Up Menus
Hattie B’s Hot Chicken Plate Captain D’s Nashville Hot Fish
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Menus in Midst of Big Fat Revolution
“Millennials have concluded animal fats unfairly demonized”
•Three times more receptive to use than Boomers
•Highest increases in consumption in HH with kids
•Image of minimal processing drives acceptance
Source: IPSOS research
Lardo in Portland,OR fries in fatback
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Burger Battleground: Butter Is Back!
Burger King’s Extra Long Cheeseburger
Jack in the Box’s Classic Buttery Jack
McDonald’s Egg McMuffin with “real butter” 34
Indies Embrace Tallow, Lard, Duck Fat, Schmaltz
Pig & Prince’s
Duck-Fat Grilled Cheese
• Cheese X 3
• Duck Bacon
• Rendered Duck Fat
• Butter
Photo by Chef Michael Carrino
Montclair, NJ
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Baloney Makes Comeback…
Penn Station’s Fried Bologna Sub
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…And It’s Going Uptown
Corner Table’s Bologna “Sandwich”
Minneapolis, MN
Marcel’s Stack Sandwich
Atlanta, GA
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And Pease Porridge Hot All Over Again
Milktooth’s Ancient Grain Porridge
•Coconut Milk •Pomegranate •Pistachios •Hemp Seed
Indianapolis, IN 38
OatMeals’ Sweet, Savory Menu
Pomegranate Pistachio Bacon Pumpkin
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UMass Offers Congee Bar
• Simple to execute
• 600 bowls per day
Source: Dining Services,
University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Comfort Disrupted: Insight2Impact
• Comfort foods deliver cross-gen appeal
• Regional favorites offer sense of place
• Ethnic comfort food ripe for discovery
• “Old-fashioned” fats offer opportunity
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Menu R&D Disrupted: 4. Dayparts
Breakfast Bonanza:
54% Consumers Enjoy at Nontraditional Times
Midmorning Snack 32%
Lunch 45
Afternoon Snack 27
Dinner 59
Evening Snack 26
Late-Night Snack, Meal 26
Source: Technomic, Inc.
42
McDonald’s Makes Breakfast “Biggest Food Story of 2015”…
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…Follows Up With Breakfast Bowl Test
• Egg White & Turkey Sausage
with Kale, Spinach
• Scrambled Egg & Chorizo with Cheddar Jack, Pico de Gallo
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QSR Competitors Amp Up Innovation, Tout Availability
White Castle’s Anything, Anytime
Waffle Breakfast Slider
Carl’s Jr./Hardee’s
Breakfast Pretzel Sandwich
Auntie Anne’s Pretzel Bun 45
MSRs Capitalize On Expertise: Shari’s Satisfies Range of Appetites
Breakfast Poutine Bistro Breakfast
46
What’s Next? Cereal Redux Grain’s Nitro Cap’n Crunch Made
with Liquid Nitrogen
Atlanta, GA
Delaware North Sportservice’s Slider Dog with Froot Loops
Cleveland, OH
47
Dayparts Disrupted: Insight2Impact
• Breakfast foods strike comfort chord
• Appeals: convenience, indulgence, healthful
• Also offer value, provide fun factor
• Needn’t offer daypart to offer food items
• Strong demographics, margin potential
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Menu R&D Disrupted: 5. Ethnic Experimentation
Why do you eat ethnic foods instead of traditional foods?
Overall Agreement
To look for something different 64%
To discover new flavors 61
Craving a particular ethnic food 55
For spicier flavors 42
For bolder flavors 39
Source: Technomic, Inc. 49
Eastern Mediterranean Influences: Arby’s Roast Beef Gyro
• Roast Beef
• Greek Seasoning
• Tzatziki Sauce
• Red Onions
• Tomatoes
• Lettuce
• Pita
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Chickpeas Turning Up All Over
Umami’s Falafel Burger 1000 Degrees’ Falafel Pizza
51
Kennesaw State University’s Hummus Bar
Options:
• Garlic
• Red Pepper
• Black Been
• Curry
• Cilantro >>
Atlanta, GA
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Korean Influences: Noodles & Company’s Gochujang
“Flavorful meatballs tossed with a sweet and spicy Korean- style Gochujang (go-choo-jang) barbeque sauce”
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Gochujang Promoted To Millennial Moms
Source: Good Housekeeping Magazine, Jan., 2016
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Tropical Influences: Chilies, From Moderately Warm….
Zoë’s Kitchen’s Live Med Salad
•Calabrian Pepper Dressing
•Zucchini, Squash Ribbons
•Spinach, Farro
•Lupine Beans
•Cherry Tomatoes
•Parmesan Cheese
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…To Set Your Hair on Fire
Wendy’s Jalapeño Fresco Spicy Chicken Sandwich,
Ghost Pepper Fries
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Memorable Mash Ups 1. Red Robin’s Red Ramen Burger
Teriyaki, Chiu Chow Aioli, Chili-Infused Shredded Cabbage, Fresh Basil 57
Memorable Mash Ups 2. McAlister’s Deli’s West Coast Bahn Mi
• Pulled Pork
• Jalapeños
• Pickled Vegetables
• Sriracha Mayo
• Fresh Cilantro
• Toasted Baguette
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Memorable Mash Ups 3. Tupelo Honey’s NC Country Ham Wontons
Shaved Honeyed Brussels Sprouts Salad
Asheville, NC
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What’s Next? Cuban 2.0
Havana 1957’s
Cuban Combo
Miami, FL
60
Ethnic Experimentation Disrupted: Insight2Impact
• Ethnic flavor remains key R&D driver…
• …Slightly eclipsed by clean-foods trend
• Culinary safety nets remain in place
• World affairs have direct influence
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Menus 2017: Key Takeaways
• Consumer-driven disruption is ongoing
• Changing values, priorities, demographics
• Successful restaurateurs must try harder
• Critical to track patron expectations
• Equipment: If you’ve got it, flaunt it
• Environmental, people connections key
• More avenues to surprise, delight
• Throughout entire supply chain 62