memorandum - montgomery county maryland . july 9, 2015 . to: ... costar . the regional office market...

28
PHED Committee #2 July 13,2015 MEMORANDUM July 9, 2015 TO: Planning, Housing, and Economic Development Committee FROM: Marlene Michaelson, Senior Legislative at st /W\)\A Jacob Sesker, Senior Legislative Analyst '?<; SUBJECT: Briefing by Planning Department on Office Market Assessment Report The Planning Department recently presented to the Planning Board a research project that examined the County and regional office market. They will brief the Committee on the project and be available for questions. A two page summary is attached at © 1 - 2. The PowerPoint presented to the Planning Board is attached at © 3 - 27. The full 106 page study can be viewed at: http://www.montgomeryplanning.org/viewer.shtm#htt;p:I/www.montgomeryplanning.org/researchldo cumentslMontgomeryCountyOfficeFinalReport061815.pdf The summary of findings on the Planning Board website is as follows: The research highlights unprecedented challenges confronting the Washington, DC region's office sector, including high and rising vacancies, flat rents, and slow absorption of new and relet space. Still recovering from the Great Recession, the region has been hard hit by cuts in federal spending and leasing and by shifts in the amount, type, and location of office space that tenants want. Most jobs created since 2010 have been in retailing, restaurants, and medical facilities instead of offices. l Office tenants everywhere are reducing their square footage via new technologies, more efficient workspace designs, and practices such as telecommuting, hoteling, and benching. The data show that Montgomery County office centers located in mixed-use developments with quality amenities, a sense of place, and good transit connectivity are best positioned to compete. This trend is consistent with recommended land use strategies in recent County plans for White Flint, Bethesda, White Oak, and other communities. Single-use office developments without convenient transit or highway access are attracting fewer tenants. Future office development is likely to occur at a slower pace and concentrate in prime locations. Less attractive locations may not attain the level of office development and occupancy they experienced in the past. F:\Michaeison\lPLAN\oftice market study 7-13-1S.doc 1 While retail employment has been trending up, 2014 retail employment is still below 2007 retail employment.

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Page 1: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

PHED Committee 2 July 132015

MEMORANDUM

July 9 2015

TO Planning Housing and Economic Development Committee

FROM Marlene Michaelson Senior Legislative A~nwat st W)A Jacob Sesker Senior Legislative Analyst lt ~

SUBJECT Briefing by Planning Department on Office Market Assessment Report

The Planning Department recently presented to the Planning Board a research project that examined the County and regional office market They will brief the Committee on the project and be available for questions A two page summary is attached at copy 1 - 2 The PowerPoint presented to the Planning Board is attached at copy 3 - 27 The full 106 page study can be viewed at

httpwwwmontgomeryplanningorgviewershtmhttpIwwwmontgomeryplanningorgresearchldo cumentslMontgomeryCountyOfficeFinalReport061815pdf

The summary of findings on the Planning Board website is as follows

The research highlights unprecedented challenges confronting the Washington DC regions office sector including high and rising vacancies flat rents and slow absorption of new and relet space

bull Still recovering from the Great Recession the region has been hard hit by cuts in federal spending and leasing and by shifts in the amount type and location of office space that tenants want

bull Most jobs created since 2010 have been in retailing restaurants and medical facilities instead of offices l

bull Office tenants everywhere are reducing their square footage via new technologies more efficient workspace designs and practices such as telecommuting hoteling and benching

bull The data show that Montgomery County office centers located in mixed-use developments with quality amenities a sense of place and good transit connectivity are best positioned to compete This trend is consistent with recommended land use strategies in recent County plans for White Flint Bethesda White Oak and other communities

bull Single-use office developments without convenient transit or highway access are attracting fewer tenants

bull Future office development is likely to occur at a slower pace and concentrate in prime locations Less attractive locations may not attain the level of office development and occupancy they experienced in the past

FMichaeisonlPLANoftice market study 7-13-1Sdoc

1 While retail employment has been trending up 2014 retail employment is still below 2007 retail employment

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT I MONTGOMERY COUNTY MARYLAND

Prepared for the Montgomery County Planning Department by Washington DC-based Partners for Economic Solution (PES) this in-depth study examines the changing regional office market and best practices for next-generation office development

Report Findings The research highlights unprecedented challenges confronting the Washington DC regions office sector including high and rising vacancies flat rents and slow absorption of new and relet space

Still recovering from the Great Recession the region has been hard hit by cuts in federal spending and leasing and by shifts in the amount type and location of office space that tenants want

Most jobs created since 2010 have been in retailing restaurants and medical facilities instead of offices

Office tenants everywhere are reducing their square footage via new technologies more efficient workspace designs and practices such as telecommuting hoteling and benching

The data show that Montgomery County office centers located in mixed-use developments with quality amenities a sense of place and good transit connectivity are best positioned to compete This trend is consistent with recommended land use strategies in recent County plans for White Flint Bethesda White Oak and other communities

Single-use office developments without convenient transit or highway access are attracting fewer tenants

Future office development is likely to occur at a slower pace and concentrate in prime locations Less attractive locations may not attain the level of office development and occupancy they experienced in the past

715 million square feet of vacant office space in the Washington DC region

I

00 o o 000 Thats 11 Pentagons worth of unoccupied office space across 9 counties

I Percentage of regional vacant office space

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT I RECOMMENDATIONS

UPDATE EXISTING OFFICE CENTERS

AMENITIES MIXED-USE CONNECTIVITY I

Create or retrofit office environments that can attract todays tenants by adding amenities mixed uses and better transit or highway connections Offer incentives to renovate existing office

buildings near transit or in mixed-use areas

REPURPOSE NONmiddotCOMPETITIVE SPACE

Allow vacant office buildings to be converted to housing hotels schools or other uses Facilitate site assembly to help owners of older small office buildings redevelop Revisit plans for approved but unbuilt suburban office parks consider redirecting development capacity to more competitive

locations Remove zoning impediments to redevelopment and diversification

ATTRACT AND RETAIN OFFICE USERS

bullbullbullbulltIt

$ bullIntensify County economic development initiatives including business attraction and retention

workforce development technical assistance and support for local entrepreneurs in order to boost demand and compete more effectively for office tenants region-wide

The full Office Market Assessment Report may be found at httpmontgomeryplanningorgresearchofficestudyshtm

For additional information please contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist Research + Special Projects Division Montgomery County Planning Department

301-650-5623 I LisaTateMontgomeryPlanningorg 8787 Georgia Avenue Silver Spring Maryland 20910

JUne201S

The New Office Landscape presentation to the

Montgomery County Planning Board June 25 2015

Research + Special Projects Division MONTGOMERY COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT

The New Office Landscape

OVERVIEW Lisa Madigan Tate Research + Special Projects Division staff

bull Purpose of study bull Office market indicators bull Regional economic forces

ANALYSIS + RECOMMENDATIONS Anita Morrison Partners for Economic SoLutions (PES)

bull Office market restructuring bull Outlook for Montgomery County bull Recommendations

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET PurposeASSESSMENT REPORT of Study

~middot111 bullbull middotW~J llJlfl l t1l~ UtU~

Land use implications

bull Rezoning Conversion Requests

bull Pipeline of Approved Development

bull Master Planning

bull Transportation Planning

11986186A Hanover Shady Grove 120063 366

120120180 Mallory Sq~e _ _ = = 8 371uar--- __--11235___4---~_

11996112A Camden Shady Grove 155330 475 Total 387751 __1212

Source u s Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Cenws of earnings amp Wages

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 2: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT I MONTGOMERY COUNTY MARYLAND

Prepared for the Montgomery County Planning Department by Washington DC-based Partners for Economic Solution (PES) this in-depth study examines the changing regional office market and best practices for next-generation office development

Report Findings The research highlights unprecedented challenges confronting the Washington DC regions office sector including high and rising vacancies flat rents and slow absorption of new and relet space

Still recovering from the Great Recession the region has been hard hit by cuts in federal spending and leasing and by shifts in the amount type and location of office space that tenants want

Most jobs created since 2010 have been in retailing restaurants and medical facilities instead of offices

Office tenants everywhere are reducing their square footage via new technologies more efficient workspace designs and practices such as telecommuting hoteling and benching

The data show that Montgomery County office centers located in mixed-use developments with quality amenities a sense of place and good transit connectivity are best positioned to compete This trend is consistent with recommended land use strategies in recent County plans for White Flint Bethesda White Oak and other communities

Single-use office developments without convenient transit or highway access are attracting fewer tenants

Future office development is likely to occur at a slower pace and concentrate in prime locations Less attractive locations may not attain the level of office development and occupancy they experienced in the past

715 million square feet of vacant office space in the Washington DC region

I

00 o o 000 Thats 11 Pentagons worth of unoccupied office space across 9 counties

I Percentage of regional vacant office space

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT I RECOMMENDATIONS

UPDATE EXISTING OFFICE CENTERS

AMENITIES MIXED-USE CONNECTIVITY I

Create or retrofit office environments that can attract todays tenants by adding amenities mixed uses and better transit or highway connections Offer incentives to renovate existing office

buildings near transit or in mixed-use areas

REPURPOSE NONmiddotCOMPETITIVE SPACE

Allow vacant office buildings to be converted to housing hotels schools or other uses Facilitate site assembly to help owners of older small office buildings redevelop Revisit plans for approved but unbuilt suburban office parks consider redirecting development capacity to more competitive

locations Remove zoning impediments to redevelopment and diversification

ATTRACT AND RETAIN OFFICE USERS

bullbullbullbulltIt

$ bullIntensify County economic development initiatives including business attraction and retention

workforce development technical assistance and support for local entrepreneurs in order to boost demand and compete more effectively for office tenants region-wide

The full Office Market Assessment Report may be found at httpmontgomeryplanningorgresearchofficestudyshtm

For additional information please contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist Research + Special Projects Division Montgomery County Planning Department

301-650-5623 I LisaTateMontgomeryPlanningorg 8787 Georgia Avenue Silver Spring Maryland 20910

JUne201S

The New Office Landscape presentation to the

Montgomery County Planning Board June 25 2015

Research + Special Projects Division MONTGOMERY COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT

The New Office Landscape

OVERVIEW Lisa Madigan Tate Research + Special Projects Division staff

bull Purpose of study bull Office market indicators bull Regional economic forces

ANALYSIS + RECOMMENDATIONS Anita Morrison Partners for Economic SoLutions (PES)

bull Office market restructuring bull Outlook for Montgomery County bull Recommendations

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET PurposeASSESSMENT REPORT of Study

~middot111 bullbull middotW~J llJlfl l t1l~ UtU~

Land use implications

bull Rezoning Conversion Requests

bull Pipeline of Approved Development

bull Master Planning

bull Transportation Planning

11986186A Hanover Shady Grove 120063 366

120120180 Mallory Sq~e _ _ = = 8 371uar--- __--11235___4---~_

11996112A Camden Shady Grove 155330 475 Total 387751 __1212

Source u s Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Cenws of earnings amp Wages

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 3: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT I RECOMMENDATIONS

UPDATE EXISTING OFFICE CENTERS

AMENITIES MIXED-USE CONNECTIVITY I

Create or retrofit office environments that can attract todays tenants by adding amenities mixed uses and better transit or highway connections Offer incentives to renovate existing office

buildings near transit or in mixed-use areas

REPURPOSE NONmiddotCOMPETITIVE SPACE

Allow vacant office buildings to be converted to housing hotels schools or other uses Facilitate site assembly to help owners of older small office buildings redevelop Revisit plans for approved but unbuilt suburban office parks consider redirecting development capacity to more competitive

locations Remove zoning impediments to redevelopment and diversification

ATTRACT AND RETAIN OFFICE USERS

bullbullbullbulltIt

$ bullIntensify County economic development initiatives including business attraction and retention

workforce development technical assistance and support for local entrepreneurs in order to boost demand and compete more effectively for office tenants region-wide

The full Office Market Assessment Report may be found at httpmontgomeryplanningorgresearchofficestudyshtm

For additional information please contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist Research + Special Projects Division Montgomery County Planning Department

301-650-5623 I LisaTateMontgomeryPlanningorg 8787 Georgia Avenue Silver Spring Maryland 20910

JUne201S

The New Office Landscape presentation to the

Montgomery County Planning Board June 25 2015

Research + Special Projects Division MONTGOMERY COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT

The New Office Landscape

OVERVIEW Lisa Madigan Tate Research + Special Projects Division staff

bull Purpose of study bull Office market indicators bull Regional economic forces

ANALYSIS + RECOMMENDATIONS Anita Morrison Partners for Economic SoLutions (PES)

bull Office market restructuring bull Outlook for Montgomery County bull Recommendations

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET PurposeASSESSMENT REPORT of Study

~middot111 bullbull middotW~J llJlfl l t1l~ UtU~

Land use implications

bull Rezoning Conversion Requests

bull Pipeline of Approved Development

bull Master Planning

bull Transportation Planning

11986186A Hanover Shady Grove 120063 366

120120180 Mallory Sq~e _ _ = = 8 371uar--- __--11235___4---~_

11996112A Camden Shady Grove 155330 475 Total 387751 __1212

Source u s Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Cenws of earnings amp Wages

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 4: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

The New Office Landscape presentation to the

Montgomery County Planning Board June 25 2015

Research + Special Projects Division MONTGOMERY COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT

The New Office Landscape

OVERVIEW Lisa Madigan Tate Research + Special Projects Division staff

bull Purpose of study bull Office market indicators bull Regional economic forces

ANALYSIS + RECOMMENDATIONS Anita Morrison Partners for Economic SoLutions (PES)

bull Office market restructuring bull Outlook for Montgomery County bull Recommendations

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET PurposeASSESSMENT REPORT of Study

~middot111 bullbull middotW~J llJlfl l t1l~ UtU~

Land use implications

bull Rezoning Conversion Requests

bull Pipeline of Approved Development

bull Master Planning

bull Transportation Planning

11986186A Hanover Shady Grove 120063 366

120120180 Mallory Sq~e _ _ = = 8 371uar--- __--11235___4---~_

11996112A Camden Shady Grove 155330 475 Total 387751 __1212

Source u s Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Cenws of earnings amp Wages

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 5: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET PurposeASSESSMENT REPORT of Study

~middot111 bullbull middotW~J llJlfl l t1l~ UtU~

Land use implications

bull Rezoning Conversion Requests

bull Pipeline of Approved Development

bull Master Planning

bull Transportation Planning

11986186A Hanover Shady Grove 120063 366

120120180 Mallory Sq~e _ _ = = 8 371uar--- __--11235___4---~_

11996112A Camden Shady Grove 155330 475 Total 387751 __1212

Source u s Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Cenws of earnings amp Wages

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 6: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Office jobs are critical to our economy

Average Weekly Wage by Industry in Montgomery County

Federal Government

Information

Financial Activities

ALL OFFICE JOBS

Professional and Business Services

ALL JOBS

Education and Health Services

Other Services

Trade ITransportation I Utiities

Other

ALL NONmiddotOFFICE JOBS

Leisure and hospitality

4 major industries based in offices

=

41 of all jobs +

55 of total wages in

Montgomery County

Source us 8ureau of labor StatistIcs Quarterty Census of Eamtnas amp Wages

Office property values are an important component of the Countys tax base

80000000

70000000

60000000

50000000

40000000

30000000

20000000

10000000

0

bull Class A _ Class B Class C class A share of total

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source CoStar

I bull I 1- UI fl 1 11 I L 111 middot~ tmiddotgt- 1

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 7: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Goals of study

bull Analyze trends in depth

bull Not purely anecdotal quantify impacts outlook

bull Identify best practices

bull Recommend tangible land use and related strategies

Source us Bureau of Labor Statfstlcs Quarterly Census of Earnings amp WaItS

MootgorneryCounty Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office ASSESSMENT Market REPORT Indicators

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 8: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

The job market is recovering Unemployment Rate

11---~~------------------------------------~----10 +-------------------------- --------shy9r---------------------------------~~~~_------

8+---------------------------------~~----~~----7r---------------------------------~-

6~~--------------5~~~~--------~~~==~--bullbullbullbull bull5 +-----------42 ------ 404 ~t~~~~=~~~~~~3~ ~5~~~~~~~~~~1 +--_______ 19 ----_________________________________ O~--~~~_+--~~~_+--~+_~_+--~+-~_+--~+_~

1995 1997 1999 2001

Sourer us Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Alea Unmlptoymenl Statistics

The regions office market was starting to recover

2011

bull San Francisco bull New YorkSilicon

valley bull AustinHrustonbull Washington DCI

Boston bull BaltimoreDallasl

Denver

bull Detroit CincinnatiIClevelandl

bull New JerseyI OrlandoA1oenix

CharlotteFairfield Col Los AngeleslMiamil

San DiegoSt LouisTampa bull Chicagol

Orange ColRaleigh-Durham bull Atlantal Minneapolisl Richmondl SeattlelFtliladelphialUnited

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 9: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

11 6 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 7bull3 62

6

104 92 In millions of square feet

71

34

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-07 -16

6

4

2

-07 -16 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Result rising vacandes

154

132

13

_ Net Additions Net Absorption

71 -Vacancy Rate

14

34

8

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 10: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

4

2

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

This is a region-wide phenomenon

- Vacancy Rate - Montgomery County -Vacancy Rate - Washington Metro 16

14

12

10

8

6

Source CoStar

The regional office market is stagnating

132 In millions of square feet

110 104

91

76 Net Absorption

49

28 28

11 07 07 0 4

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 11: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

New space was added despite slowdown

154

26 132

116 bull Net Additions Net Absorption

106 104

76 73 62

67

104 In millions of square feet

71

34

-07 -16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4 1

4 2

-07 -16 O

Result rising vacancies

154 14 13

26

10 _ Net Additions Net Absorption

76 73 71 ~Vacancy Rate 62

8 34

8

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 12: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

The region has +72 million square feet of vacant office space

VACANT OFFICE SPACE (SF)80000000 ---------- shy

bull Montgomery County bull Remainder of Washington Region

70000000 -F-------------------------~

60000000 +-------------------

50000000 -F-------------=-----To

40000000 +cshy----- shy --r

30000000

20000000

10000000

o 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

The County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space

80 bull Vacant _ Occupied

70 +-------------~

OJ ~ 60+-----shy

OJ ~ 50 J

~ 40 o ~ 30 2

i 20

10 TOTAL OFFICE SPACE

VACANT SPACE OCCUPIED SPACE 625 million sf

o 19951997199920012003200520072009 201120132015

SoIJce CoStar

reg

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 13: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Rents are flattening

Average Asking Office Rent 1995 to 2015

$4000 -----~----

$1000 -verage Office Rent - County

$500 Average Office Rent - Region

$000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source CoStar

1 lt ~ 111 II bull I

$3500

$3000

$2500

$2000

$1500

The Washington region now trails most office markets in the US

2014 san Francisco Peninsula bullHoustonSan Francisco Silicon Valley middotDallas Minneapolls bullSeattle AustlnPittsburgh bullPortlandNew York bull BostonDenverUS bull bullAustinHoustonLos Angeles CharlotteFairfleld Co MiamifTampaSan St LoulsfTampa ChlcagoOrange CountyRaleigh-Durham CharlotteMilwaukee Philadelphia ClncinnatilDetrolUHampto n RoadslLonglslandSan AntonioSt Louis

bull New Jersey bull Washington DC

SacramentolWest Palm Jones Lang LaSalle 2014 OFFICE PROPERTY CLOCK

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 14: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

What happened to the office market recovery

shy-shy-shy_---

The Washington office market was stronaer than most

bull Regional Economic Shocks bull Federal budget cuts bull Sequestration bull Federal consolidation

bull Structural Changes in the Office Industry bull Shrinking office spaces bull Changing location preferences

Naltgomery County Maryland

Regional Economic Forces

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 15: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull

Office jobs in the County were hard hit by federal budget turmoil

Health CareSocial Services Education

AccommodationFood Services Retail

Management Information

Construction Utilities

Real estate Arts Entertainment and Recreation

Agriculture and Mining TransportationWarehousing

FinanceInsurance Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

(151) (21

(512) (681) (691)

(931 (1

2010 - 2014

176 96

IIII 4495 3798

OfflCp-based job

Federal spending cuts sequestration strained area businesses and non-profits

$12 $11 $10

11 $9 ~ $8 0 c $7 0 $611c $5 ~ iii $4

$3 $2 $1 $0

I

I I I I I I I I

FEDERAL CONTRACT AND GRANT SPENDING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

bull bull I bull bull bullbull bull bullbull bull bullI I I

bull grants

bull contracts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Federal Procurement Data Syst~m

1 bull I j JII ilt 11111 III 11 111 II

Professional and Technical Services (181 Business Services (1986)

Sourel- 8ureau of Labor Statistics Quartrrly Census of Earnings amp WaIfS

f II -11 I 1 I III) 111111 I

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 16: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Bipartisan agreement cut leasing costs

Nuclear Regulatory Commission

GSA Freeze the footprint

bull Reduce leased space

bull Use space more efficiently

bull Consolidate into governmentshyowned buildings

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 17: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Office Market ASSESSMENT REPORT

I

Restructuring

1 bull 11 11Io1 1 ll 111 n~ 11 UhlaquoJ I

Changing Use of Space bull Technology cuts the cords

that bound workers to their offices

bull New economy businesses seek flexible spaces that encourage collaboration

bull Innovative office designs increase employee density

bull Less file storage and library space

Courtesy of Smith GroupJJR

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 18: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

GSA adopted downsizing trends to cut space utilization

Federal downsizing will continue ConsoUdation into GSA-owned space National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

ConsoUdation of federal leased space National Institutes of Health in Rock Spring

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 19: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

23 million square feet of Federal office leases expire in 2015

Square feet of leased federal space by year of expiration 10000000 -----------------~

______ bull Remainder of Region __9000000

1 ______ bull Montgomery County 8000000

17000000

16000000 1 6686526

5000000

1 1 14000000

1 1 1 6433296 3000000

1 I 4628 185 1 1 4279 987 1 2000000 I I 1 1 1 3592213 1000000

1 2321978 1 632400 1 231 132 1 642 150 1 15 1640

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source us General Selce-s Admlnfstration Inventory of Federalle-ased Spece

Companies dependent on knowledge workers are voting with their feet

bull Transit access primarily Metro

bull Mixed-use environments

bull Sustai nable buildings

bull Pedestrianshyoriented areas

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 20: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Office tenants are seeking out more accessible mixed use environments

MOSAIC DISTRICT TYSONS CORNER CENTER NOMA

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

2014 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Rock Spring

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Silver Spring CBO

Bethesda C BO

Single-Use

Auto-Onented

327

316

1995 VACANCY RATE BY AREA

Silver Spring CBO

E 1-270 at Gude

Germantown

Montrose Pky

Bethesda CBO

Rockville CBO

Rock Spring

Shady Grove LSC

1-270 Montrose to

WesTech

Source Partners (or Economic Solutions

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 21: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

---

Single-use auto-oriented office parks are losing their appeal

-Metro-served Mixed Use Environments -Single Use Auto-oriented environments

- linear (Metro-served Mixed Use Environments)- linear (Single Use Auto-oriented environments)

25 Single Use

Auto Oriented 20

- _shy

5 Mixed-Use r ransil- Oriented

1993 19941995 19961997 19981999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sourc Plftntr5 for Economk SoluUons

Naltgomery County Maryland

Outlook for Montgomery County

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 22: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Future Montgomery County Office Vacandes

Even with no new construction acceptable vacancy levels are unlikely until 2022

2019 bull Vacancy rate 104 to 152

bull Vacant space 76 to 111 million sq ft

2022 bull Vacancy rate 71 to 148

bull Vacant space 52 to 108 million sq ft

Analysis projects a soft regional office market for the next 5 to 10 years

bull Office construction slowdown

bull Uptick in conversions demolitions re-zoning plan revisions

bull Shopping for office space flight to quality

bull Location location location

1 I 1middot middot1 bullbull 1 r IT bull 11IIi bullbull n1 4h

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 23: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Some locations wi II recover some wi II be unable to compete

Best prospects

worst prospects

bull 11111 II j j I 11 1 11111 1

bull Quality properties

bull Walkable mixed-use environments

bull Easy transithighway access

bull Obsolete buildings

bull Auto-centric single-use environments

bull Poor accessibility

bull Isolated from worker housing amenities and business centers

Implications for the Future

bull New construction focused in prime locations mixed-use with transit and quality public spaces

bull Transit connectivity is increasingly important

bull Limited demand for single-use office parks and campuses

bull Pipeline of 227 million office square feet

bull Mostly in less competitive locations and configurations

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 24: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Implications for the Future

bull Declining property values and taxes

bull Conversions to other uses

bull Demolitions

~ 1 bullbull J1lf Ullo h1 III 111) oj IlJ I

Montgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET Strategies ampASSESSMENT

Best Practices REPORT

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 25: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Best Practices

IRockville Town Center

Reston Town Center Capitol Riverfront

~I t 1-1gt11 ~ 0) I 1 bull I II I bull ITIIL ~ 1

Transforming Office Parks

bull Rezone for mixed uses

bull Subdivide laboratorybuilding

bull Repurpose for hospitals

bull Add retail hotels and apartments by moving parking into garages

bull Create pedestrianinfrastructure

3rd Avenue in Northwest Park Burlington MA

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 26: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Enhance Office Environments

bull Continue to invest in transit

bull Enhance walkability and connectivity

bull Events and programming to enliven districts

bull Partner with developers to diversify existing office parks

bull Remove any zoning impediments to redevelopment

bull Provide incentives for building improvements

li~ _ kll 1 t~~ Hli jjUWI~~11

Reduce Non-Competitive Space

bull Encourage conversion to other uses housing hotels public schools

bull Encourage demolition and redevelopment by facilitating assembly of small office sites

bull Discourage new development that cant compete

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 27: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Montgomery County has planned ahead of major market trends

CREATING NEW URBAN CENTERSCOMPACT DEVELOPMENT

a workshop series - Fall 2014

URBAN DESIGN I PLACEMAKINGMIXED USE ZONING RETROFITIING SUBURBAN OFFICE PARKS

Increase Office Demand

bull Support economic development

bull Fund economic incentives for large tenants

bull Provide landlord incentives for small tenants

bull Invest in the local workforce

bull Protect and enhance the local quality of life

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b
Page 28: MEMORANDUM - Montgomery County Maryland . July 9, 2015 . TO: ... CoStar . The regional office market is stagnating. 13.2 . ... •Houston/San Francisco! Silicon Valley

Prioritize

bull Support existing mixed-use districts rather than creating new districts

bull Not every Metro or light rail station can attract significant office development

bull Target office park redevelopment incentives bull Opportunity for dense walkable environment bull Good accessibility and visibility bull Available sites or vacant buildings bull Residents + businesses to support retail + restaurants bull Willing owners

1 ll bull If ~o ~ l~ I I 1

Naltgomery County Maryland

OFFICE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT

Staff contact Lisa Madigan Tate Regional Economist

Research amp Special Projects Division

Lisa Tatemontgomeryplanningorg

3013774936

Access the full report at http www montgomeryplanningorgl research

  • a
  • b