mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in: private contributions to international aid in 18...
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Presentation at ERNOP International Conference, Riga, July 11TRANSCRIPT
Arjen de WitERNOP Conference, Riga
July 11, 2013
Mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in
Private contributions to international aid in 18 European welfare states
So what?● Welfare states under pressure● How are private contributions affected by
(changes in) institutions?– Do citizens contribute more in smaller
welfare states?– Or do generous welfare states
encourage private contributions?
Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de
Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:
– Economics– Sociology
Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de
Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:
– Economics– Sociology
● Paradox: there is evidence for crowding-out, but hardly in survey studies
The challenge● Under which conditions does crowding-out
occur?● Does crowding-out exist for giving money
as well as other forms of participation?● How can it be explained?
Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20● N = 38,959● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18● N = 38,959 32,870● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17 15● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466 28,188● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
Mechanisms● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
Testing the mechanisms (1)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
Higher international aid, more giving..
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
15 countriesN = 28,188
*
...partly explained by organisation effects
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
*
*
15 countriesN = 28,188
Effects smaller for volunteering
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
* *
15 countriesN = 28,188
Testing the mechanisms (2)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
No effects for volunteering either
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
(*)
Testing the mechanisms (3)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
Welfare state regime types
UniversalismDe-commodification Low High
Low Anglo-Saxon and MediterraneanUK, IL, IT, ES, PT
Central and Eastern EuropeanHU, PL, SI
High ConservativeFR, DE, AT, BE, LU
SocialistFI, NL, DK, SE, NO
Welfare state regime type matters...
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*)
*
(*)
Welfare state regime type matters...
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*) *
**
(*)
..partly because it encourages trust
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*) *
**
*
(*)
(*)
Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
*
*
Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
* *
**
Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
* *
***
*
Conclusions● Crowding-in when looking at sector● No resources mechanism● Welfare state regime type matters (but
how?)● Same effects for giving and volunteering
Towards better crowding-out research
● More specific variables● Testing mechanisms● Testing conditions● Testing causality
